PDA

View Full Version : 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 [40] 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51

Patman
03-12-2012, 11:31 AM
I love this time of year when the predictor comes out. Good bye free time!

I just want it to be Friday at 7 when I can be sure Lowell will be dancing.

Numbers
03-12-2012, 11:47 AM
I just want it to be Friday at 7 when I can be sure Lowell will be dancing.

Patman, I think that Lowell's nightmare scenarios require being passed by both UND and DU, so if either of them loses on Thursday, I think you guys are safe. It might be you can breathe easy at about 6 PM EDT on Thursday.


EDIT - And, I discovered why, at least in one case. In WCHA, for Lowell, in this nightmare scenario for Lowell, if UND beats DU in the WCHA final, UNH is not a TUC. Lowell is 2-1 vs UNH. Their TUC record is just enough on the edge, that losing UNH causes them to lose the compare with Minnesota, and that one loss makes them fall out of the field. Replace UND with SCSU going all the way to the Braodmoor, and UNH comes back in as TUC, and Lowell wins the compare with Minnesota, and makes the field.

Off Topic -- I ask you, does this sound like a system that makes sens?

Priceless
03-12-2012, 11:59 AM
In terms of tiebreakers, they don't factor in one team winning the comparison over the team they're tied with, right? They go off of RPI? I have UML and Minnesota tied at 8th, but the Gophers have a higher RPI.

The NCAA has never clarified how it breaks ties. We have assumed it was by RPI in the case of three or more teams because of 2007. However, I found just the opposite in 2005 (post 660 (http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?98386-2012-NCAA-Tournament-Bracketology&p=5388219&viewfull=1#post5388219)) and we have never seen them break a tie strictly on RPI or comparison when it involves two teams - seeds are switched because of attendance and intra-conference pairings. My guess (and it's only a guess, mixed with cynicism) is that the NCAA leaves it purposefully vague to give itself an out in the case of a difficult situation (as in 2005).

Patman
03-12-2012, 12:06 PM
Patman, I think that Lowell's nightmare scenarios require being passed by both UND and DU, so if either of them loses on Thursday, I think you guys are safe. It might be you can breathe easy at about 6 PM EDT on Thursday.


EDIT - And, I discovered why, at least in one case. In WCHA, for Lowell, in this nightmare scenario for Lowell, if UND beats DU in the WCHA final, UNH is not a TUC. Lowell is 2-1 vs UNH. Their TUC record is just enough on the edge, that losing UNH causes them to lose the compare with Minnesota, and that one loss makes them fall out of the field. Replace UND with SCSU going all the way to the Braodmoor, and UNH comes back in as TUC, and Lowell wins the compare with Minnesota, and makes the field.

Off Topic -- I ask you, does this sound like a system that makes sens?

UNH falling out is a big part... I agree that the TUC record is what is holding Lowell higher than its RPI. I would find it suprising if the WCHA played that large of an impact in the general case. I'll look at it when I find time.

edit: it will take more than that WCHA scenario for Lowell to fall out... I still think the tumblers have to fall just right... UNH is sitting right on the edge.

as for OT... I don't understand.

goalie heckler
03-12-2012, 12:10 PM
Would someone with access to the Pairwise database be able to post something like:

19 games remaining
1,238,432 possible outcomes (I did not do the actual math...)

Outcomes where team finishes 13th or above (or whatever cutoff we think is necessary based on likely auto-qualifiers)

BC: 1,238,432
Michigan: 1,238,432
UMD: 1,238,432
Miami: 1,100,234
etc.

IrishHockeyFan
03-12-2012, 12:19 PM
The NCAA has never clarified how it breaks ties. We have assumed it was by RPI in the case of three or more teams because of 2007. However, I found just the opposite in 2005 (post 660 (http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?98386-2012-NCAA-Tournament-Bracketology&p=5388219&viewfull=1#post5388219)) and we have never seen them break a tie strictly on RPI or comparison when it involves two teams - seeds are switched because of attendance and intra-conference pairings. My guess (and it's only a guess, mixed with cynicism) is that the NCAA leaves it purposefully vague to give itself an out in the case of a difficult situation (as in 2005).

I think you are right on the money about why the NCAA leaves it vague. Sort of like the RPI bonus for "good wins" they applied for a couple of seasons a few years back. The actual value was never "officially" released, and could also have served as an out if a particular at-large team was selected or someone received a seed that didn't make perfect sense.

Numbers
03-12-2012, 12:25 PM
UNH falling out is a big part... I agree that the TUC record is what is holding Lowell higher than its RPI. I would find it suprising if the WCHA played that large of an impact in the general case. I'll look at it when I find time.

edit: it will take more than that WCHA scenario for Lowell to fall out... I still think the tumblers have to fall just right... UNH is sitting right on the edge.

as for OT... I don't understand.

Patman,

What I did was take your scenario that you wrote last night that put Lowell out- I believe it was something like:
WCHA - NoDak beats DU in the final
HE - Prov beats Maine in the final
CCHA - BG over Miami, and Michigan over WMU on Saturday
ECAC - Harvard and Union win on Fri, Harvard and Cornell on Saturday
AHA - Air Force over RIT in the final

Which left Lowell at 13th, with 4 AQs below them.

And, then I simply changed the scenario so that SCSU ran the table in the WCHA instead of UND. The results I got can be summarized like this:
Lowell then wins the compare with UND, but SCSU as upset winner is in the field, so this is a wash.
The Lowell/Minnesota compare swaps to Lowell, because of UNH being back in the TUC list. So, Lowell ends up just making the field.

The Off-Topic part was meant to say, "Hey, the difference here is because of a game played way across the country, with neither team being involved. I mean SCSU having played UNH twice this year. Never mind who won. The mere fact that SCSU is on UNH's sched, and then the question of whether UND or SCSU wins the Friday game, makes all the difference. It seems foolish to let one school's fate be decided on the basis of what happens in an odd game in St Paul. In other words, in this scenario, Lowell's fate depends on what happens in St Paul. That seems like the kind of thing you don't want if you want a 'fair' system."

JF_Gophers
03-12-2012, 12:26 PM
Patman, I think that Lowell's nightmare scenarios require being passed by both UND and DU, so if either of them loses on Thursday, I think you guys are safe. It might be you can breathe easy at about 6 PM EDT on Thursday.


EDIT - And, I discovered why, at least in one case. In WCHA, for Lowell, in this nightmare scenario for Lowell, if UND beats DU in the WCHA final, UNH is not a TUC. Lowell is 2-1 vs UNH. Their TUC record is just enough on the edge, that losing UNH causes them to lose the compare with Minnesota, and that one loss makes them fall out of the field. Replace UND with SCSU going all the way to the Braodmoor, and UNH comes back in as TUC, and Lowell wins the compare with Minnesota, and makes the field.

Off Topic -- I ask you, does this sound like a system that makes sens?If Lowell is concerned they might not make the field, they should of beat Providence.

TonyTheTiger20
03-12-2012, 12:30 PM
Can someone clarify on how BC falls to 3rd? Again, normally I'd play around with the predictor but I'm at work and can't join in the fun.

Priceless
03-12-2012, 12:34 PM
Would someone with access to the Pairwise database be able to post something like:

19 games remaining
1,238,432 possible outcomes (I did not do the actual math...)


It's not nearly that bad. CHN says there are 524,288 outcomes with 19 games remaining. :D

Patman
03-12-2012, 12:37 PM
If Lowell is concerned they might not make the field, they should of beat Providence.

No kidding :rolleyes:

FiveHole12
03-12-2012, 01:22 PM
Lowell's fate depends on what happens in St Paul. That seems like the kind of thing you don't want if you want a 'fair' system."
I'm in agreement with others.
Lowell's fate was in their own hands Sunday and they lost.
Seems fair to me that their fate is now in the hands of others.

Priceless
03-12-2012, 01:35 PM
I'm in agreement with others.
Lowell's fate was in their own hands Sunday and they lost.
Seems fair to me that their fate is now in the hands of others.
Having your fate in the hands of others isn't unique to Lowell. Happens every year in every sport. This year, the Titans missed the NFL playoffs even though they upset Houston on the final day of the season because their fate was tied to other teams.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-12-2012, 01:38 PM
College Hockey Weekly has put out their bracketology looking at the current pairwise...

http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/Current_Pairwise.html

CHW will also be doing a special Saturday Night projection of what they feel the field will look like once all the games have been played.

Also, CHW has put out their final Tournament Forecast, along with who they feel will prevail in the conference tournaments this weekend...

http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/Tournament-Forecast.html

LynahFan
03-12-2012, 01:38 PM
It's not nearly that bad. CHN says there are 524,288 outcomes with 19 games remaining. :D
That doesn't account for ties in consolation games.

Priceless
03-12-2012, 02:00 PM
That doesn't account for ties in consolation games.
I wondered about that...

JimDahl
03-12-2012, 02:06 PM
Would someone with access to the Pairwise database be able to post something like:

19 games remaining
1,238,432 possible outcomes (I did not do the actual math...)

Outcomes where team finishes 13th or above (or whatever cutoff we think is necessary based on likely auto-qualifiers)

BC: 1,238,432
Michigan: 1,238,432
UMD: 1,238,432
Miami: 1,100,234
etc.

The problem with choosing an arbitrary cutoff is there's no way to know what ranking is safe until the conference tournaments end. So, I posted the possible ranges in this thread on the previous page, and the likelihoods as percentages of the 1,179,648 remaining possible outcomes:

PWR possibilities (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/12/ncaa-tournament-selection-pwr-possibilities/)

I'm still doing some error-checking, so let me know if anything looks amiss.

JF_Gophers
03-12-2012, 02:44 PM
W T F, Harvard has 11 ties (12 wins)!? :eek:

Numbers
03-12-2012, 02:54 PM
Concerning having your fate tied to others: It is true that happens all the time. However, it happens because the other result to which your fate is tied also has something to do with the fate of the teams involved in that result.

This is not the case with the PWR. (Disclaimer - any who watches my posts here knows I am addicted to numbers. PWR offers lots of ways to experiment with numbers, so I like it. Really I do. And, certainly I think a 'simple math (copyright, ScoobyDoo)' system is better than 5 guys thinking, "Well, Lowell just looked better than Minnesota this year....")

With PWR, lots of your fate is tied to the TUC cliff. Who is TUC and who is not is not something which you directly affect. Also, the key thing is "Record against TUCs." That means that a game against UNH is the same as a game against BC. So, my problem with the system here is:

#1 - TUC cliff is always arbitrary. And, I am not sure there is a way to fix that. And,
#2 - If NCAA wants a TUC component to the PWR, it should find a way to evaluate it at least slightly based on SOS within the TUC group.

But, in short, hypothetically, not talking about Lowell here, but hypothetically, the last team in the tourney could come down to :
Merrimack or Northern Michigan.

Hhhhmmmmm, let's seeee..... Well, In October, NMU played RIT and beat them. Today, RIT beat Air Force in the AHA to just squeak into the TUC group. So, NMU's win against RIT in October now counts huge for them, and they get in over Merrimack. Or, AFA beat RIT, so RIT is not TUC, so there is no extra credit to NMU for beating them, so Merrimack gets in.

The thing is, neither Merrimack or NMU (hypothetically, again) have anything to do the the RIT/AFA game. And, RIT and AFA are playing, and their game decides who gets in, and they don't give a rip about that.

It just seems awkward to me...

But, like I say, it sure makes this week fun...:):)

JF_Gophers
03-12-2012, 02:59 PM
Concerning having your fate tied to others: It is true that happens all the time. However, it happens because the other result to which your fate is tied also has something to do with the fate of the teams involved in that result.

This is not the case with the PWR. (Disclaimer - any who watches my posts here knows I am addicted to numbers. PWR offers lots of ways to experiment with numbers, so I like it. Really I do. And, certainly I think a 'simple math (copyright, ScoobyDoo)' system is better than 5 guys thinking, "Well, Lowell just looked better than Minnesota this year....")

With PWR, lots of your fate is tied to the TUC cliff. Who is TUC and who is not is not something which you directly affect. Also, the key thing is "Record against TUCs." That means that a game against UNH is the same as a game against BC. So, my problem with the system here is:

#1 - TUC cliff is always arbitrary. And, I am not sure there is a way to fix that. And,
#2 - If NCAA wants a TUC component to the PWR, it should find a way to evaluate it at least slightly based on SOS within the TUC group.

But, in short, hypothetically, not talking about Lowell here, but hypothetically, the last team in the tourney could come down to :
Merrimack or Northern Michigan.

Hhhhmmmmm, let's seeee..... Well, In October, NMU played RIT and beat them. Today, RIT beat Air Force in the AHA to just squeak into the TUC group. So, NMU's win against RIT in October now counts huge for them, and they get in over Merrimack. Or, AFA beat RIT, so RIT is not TUC, so there is no extra credit to NMU for beating them, so Merrimack gets in.

The thing is, neither Merrimack or NMU (hypothetically, again) have anything to do the the RIT/AFA game. And, RIT and AFA are playing, and their game decides who gets in, and they don't give a rip about that.

It just seems awkward to me...

But, like I say, it sure makes this week fun...:):)But again, it took a season full of other results in which those teams did directly impact to make that RIT/AFA game important to those teams now.