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Priceless
03-11-2012, 05:23 PM
It looks like Maine is in even if Providence or UNH win Hockey East because their inclusion as a TUC (Providence would rise to >.5 if they win HEA) would lift Maine above the cut line. It would take an additional upset to unseat the Black Bears.

bottomdweller
03-11-2012, 09:00 PM
It looks like Maine is in even if Providence or UNH win Hockey East because their inclusion as a TUC (Providence would rise to >.5 if they win HEA) would lift Maine above the cut line. It would take an additional upset to unseat the Black Bears.

What are Lowell's chances looking like after that atrocious performance this weekend?

Patman
03-11-2012, 10:31 PM
What are Lowell's chances looking like after that atrocious performance this weekend?

IMO, pretty good... some of it depends upon UNH staying above the line and BC ending the Friars season... I'll start going through some of the tools Monday night to generate worst cases but the one positive thing about the end of the season is that it can't get worse... or at least by that much... teams need to jump in front of you and at this stage many of those teams are already at home.

On the other hand, location is up to the Wheel of Fate as it were. If you are a #1 you have your best advantage... #2 better... #3 becomes iffy. There's quite away to fall in order not to make the tournament... next weekend would have to be, frankly, flat out ridiculous.

Numbers
03-11-2012, 10:34 PM
Now that the HE bracket is known, one very important piece of information for everyone here:

If Maine beats BU, New Hampshire's RPI would fall below the TUC cut line. That has the effect of drastically changing BU's TUC record, and also slightly altering Lowell's TUC record. I know that sounds strange, but the reason is that New Hampshire played BU 6 times this year, and so a slight change in BU win% affects UNH's RPI that tiny bit.

Please be aware of this, because it could affect several compares.

Along with this: Please note that right now, the upper level of the PWR is quite confused. What I mean is, the PWR order doesn't follow the RPI order. And, many comparison wins are out of order. That means the top end - from about 3 to 9 or so, is very volatile, because the compares depend on TUCs and ComOpps, and those things move quickly.

Numbers
03-11-2012, 10:37 PM
IMO, pretty good... some of it depends upon UNH staying above the line and BC ending the Friars season... I'll start going through some of the tools Monday night to generate worst cases but the one positive thing about the end of the season is that it can't get worse... or at least by that much... teams need to jump in front of you and at this stage many of those teams are already at home.

On the other hand, location is up to the Wheel of Fate as it were. If you are a #1 you have your best advantage... #2 better... #3 becomes iffy. There's quite away to fall in order not to make the tournament... next weekend would have to be, frankly, flat out ridiculous.

I agree Patman. I can get Lowell as low as 14th, if BU loses to Maine, and Western wins the Mason at the Joe. Several other things have to happen as well. But then, for Lowell to fall out of the field, 2 upsets among HE, ECAC, and WCHA would be necessary. HE of course is very unlikely, because in this scenario, we are creating an HE tourney like this: Prov over BC, Maine over BU, Prov over Maine. That's almost impossible. WCHA would require a strange list of things, because I am assuming good results for UND and DU to make Lowell lose those compares.

All in all, I would say there might be a way to get them out, but it would be a one in a million scenario.

Numbers
03-11-2012, 11:48 PM
One more odd TUC situation. Right now, RIT qualifies as a TUC. If they would lose next Friday, they would fall from that status, and hurt Union College in the process. Specifically their compares to Lowell and UND.

NMUFAN21
03-11-2012, 11:49 PM
So if Western loses to Miami and BGSU loses Friday, would Northern be in as long as no upsets occur?

Numbers
03-11-2012, 11:57 PM
So if Western loses to Miami and BGSU loses Friday, would Northern be in as long as no upsets occur?

Northern has to pass Western in RPI. I believe CCHA has a consolation game. So, Northern requires Western to lose to Miami, and then on Saturday, if Western plays Michigan, they have to lose. If they play BG, lose or tie works for Northern. In the case where Western plays Mich on Saturday, BG would of course have to lose to Miami.

NMUFAN21
03-12-2012, 12:05 AM
Northern has to pass Western in RPI. I believe CCHA has a consolation game. So, Northern requires Western to lose to Miami, and then on Saturday, if Western plays Michigan, they have to lose. If they play BG, lose or tie works for Northern. In the case where Western plays Mich on Saturday, BG would of course have to lose to Miami.

Alright, so say it's Western and Bowling Green in the consolation, a WMU win would knock Northern out?

gscott13
03-12-2012, 12:10 AM
pairwise predictor is up an running...

Numbers
03-12-2012, 12:14 AM
Alright, so say it's Western and Bowling Green in the consolation, a WMU win would knock Northern out?

Correct.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-12-2012, 12:14 AM
pairwise predictor is up an running...

And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Which results in...

1. BC
2. Michigan
3. North Dakota
3. Minnesota Duluth
3. BU
6. Union
6. Ferris State
8. Miami
9. Lowell
10. Minnesota
10. Maine
10. Cornell
13. Denver
14. Michigan State
14. Western Michigan
23. Air Force

:p:D:D

Numbers
03-12-2012, 12:17 AM
First playing around with the predictor -

Minnesota appears safe. I can get them as low as tied with Cornell for the last 2 spots, but I can't get them out.

Denver and Cornell, on the other hand, are not totally safe. There is an odd scenario with Providence, Mich Tech, Western, and Harvard winning their conferences, as well as AF over RIT in AHA final, that puts Cornell and Denver out.

Denver, also, believe it or not, can still get as high as #3 overall.

UND the same potential upside.

Numbers
03-12-2012, 12:19 AM
And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Which results in...

1. BC
2. Michigan
3. North Dakota
3. Minnesota Duluth
3. BU
6. Union
6. Ferris State
8. Miami
9. Lowell
10. Minnesota
10. Maine
10. Cornell
13. Denver
14. Michigan State
14. Western Michigan
23. Air Force

:p:D:D

FS23, Keep playing with that. I think you may find that NoDak is a #1 in almost any case where they win the Broadmoor. I want to take some time tomorrow, but I think the same is true for DU and Minnesota as well.

That would be something: If UND and DU win on Thursday, the rest of the weekend at the X would be a battle for a #1 seed.

J.D.
03-12-2012, 12:19 AM
Heading into championship weekend:

1. BC
2. Michigan
3. UMD
4. Miami
5. BU
6. Union
7. Ferris State
8. Minnesota
9. UML
10. Maine
11. Denver/UND
12. UND/Denver
13. Cornell
14. MSU
15. WMU
16. Air Force

Worcester:

1. BC
2. Ferris State
3. Maine
4. Western Michigan

St. Paul:

1. Michigan
2. Minnesota
3. UML
4. Air Force

GB:

1. UMD
2. Union
3. North Dakota
4. MSU

Bridgeport:

1. Miami
2. BU
3. Denver
4. Cornell

Spartanforlife4
03-12-2012, 12:23 AM
It would be too long to list them, so I'm just gonna say:

Goooooooooooo Favorites!!!!! (minus WMU)

Priceless
03-12-2012, 12:25 AM
Denver, Union and Maine can be eliminated but it would take tremendous upsets to do it, including SCSU or Tech running the table in the WCHA, Colgate or Harvard winning the ECAC, Providence winning HEA and Bowling Green winning the CCHA.

For brevity's sake, can we agree to just call it "the parlay"? :)

gscott13
03-12-2012, 12:25 AM
And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

i'm obviously looking at it from a maine viewpoint, but in my first pass on the predictor, i was able to get them up to a #1 seed (fourth overall)

Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 29 .5590*
2 Boston College (BC) 28 .5693
3 Michigan (Mi) 27 .5600
4t Maine (Me) 25 .5510*
4t Miami (Mm) 25 .5494*
4t Ferris State (FS) 25 .5493
7 Union (Un) 23 .5483*
8 North Dakota (ND) 21 .5476
9t Minnesota (Mn) 20 .5482*
9t Massachusetts-Lowell (ML) 20 .5434
11 Boston University (BU) 19 .5458
12t Western Michigan (WM) 18 .5420
12t Cornell (Cr) 18 .5376
14 Denver (DU) 17 .5412
18t Colgate (Cg) 12 .5187
23 Air Force (AF) 7 .5136


Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT
Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst
Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green
Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Union
Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Union defeats Harvard
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University
Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College
Championship game: Maine defeats Providence
WCHA
Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech
Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota
Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota

Numbers
03-12-2012, 12:26 AM
North Dakota is not perfectly safe either yet:
WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Denver.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT

Results in No Dakota being the last team out.

To summarize the above:
AHA - AF over RIT
CCHA - WM over Mich (Champ); Miami over BG (conso)
ECAC - Harvard over Union (Champ); Cornell over Colgate (conso)
HE - Providence over Maine
WCHA - SCSU over Denver (which I think resolves all 5 games)

Patman
03-12-2012, 12:36 AM
Denver, Union and Maine can be eliminated but it would take tremendous upsets to do it, including SCSU or Tech running the table in the WCHA, Colgate or Harvard winning the ECAC, Providence winning HEA and Bowling Green winning the CCHA.

For brevity's sake, can we agree to just call it "the parlay"? :)

I can get Lowell out but it requires BGSU, PC, Harvard, and North Dakota all winning out.