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Priceless
03-09-2012, 02:21 PM
The good news for Lowell is that even if Providence becomes a TUC (has to make the Hockey East finals) they will still be #13 at worst. The worst case for Lowell is that there is a logjam of Miami, Michigan State, Western Michigan and Northern Michigan right around them, and all of them can't improve. In fact, either Michigan State or Miami will get dinged this weekend and Northern is sitting at home. Barring a worst-case scenario and at least two upsets in the conference tournaments, Lowell is in the field.

Priceless
03-10-2012, 12:09 AM
1 Boston Coll (HE) 31
2 Minn-Duluth (WC) 29
3 Michigan (CC) 28
4 Ferris State (CC) 28
5 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27
6 Minnesota (WC) 25
7 Miami (CC) 25
8 Boston Univ (HE) 24
9 Maine (HE) 23
10 Union (EC) 22
11 North Dakota (WC) 21
12 Cornell (EC) 21
13 Denver U (WC) 20
14 Mich State (CC) 18
15 Western Mich (CC) 17
---
16 Northern Mich (CC) 16




Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Ferris St Boston C Minn-Duluth Michigan
Lowell Boston U Minnesota Miami
Cornell Union Maine No Dakota
Denver W Mich Mich St AHA Champ


Niagara 0.5021
Yale 0.5010
---
UMass 0.4999
RIT 0.4952

Numbers
03-10-2012, 12:30 AM
And, the upper part of the PWR will be very volatile from here on out. A rudimentary calculation shows that, if BU sweeps the next 2 versus New Hampshire, UNH would have an RPI of .5001 at that point. How it would move would depend on many things, of course, but perhaps most, it would depend on the HE semi with BU. The reason this is important, is that UML was 2-1 vs NH, and BC was 3-0 vs UNH, so some comparisons might flip depending on UNH's TUC status. For one, right now, the UML/Minn comparison depends totally on that one factor.

I can't be positive, but I am fairly certain that right now, if UNH maintains TUC status, and BC wins this weekend's series, that BC would be guaranteed the overall #1...


EDIT: Sorry, I missed the obvious case of UMD winning the Broadmoor, and BC not winning HE's tourney. In which case, UMD would regain the compare with Minn, and would end up winning every compare, despite still not having as high a RPI as BC.

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 12:31 AM
I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?

Slap Shot
03-10-2012, 12:31 AM
Go Providence and BG!!! :D

The Rube
03-10-2012, 12:39 AM
I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?

It'd take a minor miracle, but NMU can make it depending on what their past opponents do. Lowell dropped 2 spots by losing last night, and dropped 1 spot by WINNING tonight. I can't explain it; I'm not a PWR guru, but I did ask one, and he laid out what probably had to happen. It was rather complicated.

Patronick
03-10-2012, 12:46 AM
It'd take a minor miracle, but NMU can make it depending on what their past opponents do. Lowell dropped 2 spots by losing last night, and dropped 1 spot by WINNING tonight. I can't explain it; I'm not a PWR guru, but I did ask one, and he laid out what probably had to happen. It was rather complicated.

Huh? Lowell was 7th after last night's loss, they're 5th now after the win tonight. So...

Numbers
03-10-2012, 12:50 AM
I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?

I will answer #3 first. I just did a real quick simulation in which all higher seeded teams won all remaining games, except I didn't bother with the AHA. So, that would have MSU losing tomorrow night. I ended up with MSU seeded 14th, and Western 15th. So, the obvious answer for Spartan fans is, root for the home team, unless they are playing MSU.

Now, #2: What do you mean by "Where is Miami?" If you mean, which region would they go to, the answer is: Way to early to know. If you mean, "How are their chances?" Pretty good right now.

And, now to #1. The simplest way for NoMich to qualify would be: Lake Superior beats Western 2 games in a row, lowering Western's RPI to below that of NoMich, and turning that comparison. Following that, there are probably many things that have to happen: easiest of them would be again, all higher seeded teams win in every game.

Obviously, this "Higher seed wins" business doesn't hold true, but it is the easiest to describe...

The Rube
03-10-2012, 12:54 AM
Huh? Lowell was 7th after last night's loss, they're 5th now after the win tonight. So...

No, in the PWR, according to FSN, they were 2, dropped to 4, and now they are 5th. They could be wrong, I suppose.....

SanTropez
03-10-2012, 12:58 AM
They are wrong.

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 12:59 AM
Now, #2: What do you mean by "Where is Miami?" If you mean, which region would they go to, the answer is: Way to early to know. If you mean, "How are their chances?" Pretty good right now.


I mean where are they in the PWR. I keep hearing if they win the series against MSU they're in, but I find it odd they aren't even shown when they are a game away from completing that.

Numbers
03-10-2012, 12:59 AM
I would like to throw this out for CCHA fans:

Take a close look at the NCAA bubble: From #14 to #20 is 7 places. Right now, 5 of those are CCHA teams. What that means is, without a bunch of surprising upsets to give auto-bids to unlikely teams, that your conference is likely to fill the bubble. But, also to affect one another lots. I mean lots. A little more detail: It would take an extreme circumstance for CC to make the field without winning the WCHA playoffs. Probably the same could be said for Lake. So, now, in my mind I reduce the bubble to #14 - # 18. Lake's influence is going to be: how much can they destroy Western's chances? Notre Dame needs to win 2 against Michigan and go from there (almost got one tonight). And, so on. The only ??? in the bubble is really: What will Merrimack do? If they lose to Maine again tomorrow night, they will be all but out (and maybe, out!). Then, the bubble comes down to MichState, WestMich, NoMich, and upsets in the conf tourneys.

Anyone want to know anything more specific?

Numbers
03-10-2012, 01:00 AM
I mean where are they in the PWR. I keep hearing if they win the series against MSU they're in, but I find it odd they aren't even shown when they are a game away from completing that.

Sorry, I misunderstood. Tonight they are tied at #6 in the PWR with Minnesota, and lose the tiebreaker, so #7.

Patman
03-10-2012, 01:06 AM
No, in the PWR, according to FSN, they were 2, dropped to 4, and now they are 5th. They could be wrong, I suppose.....

Rule of thumb... the (TV) media knows more than us on some injuries and some inside stories.

But generally, we know more than most of the (TV) media... and further on things of technical details we know A LOT more than the media.

Spartanforlife4
03-10-2012, 01:06 AM
Sorry, I misunderstood. Tonight they are tied at #6 in the PWR with Minnesota, and lose the tiebreaker, so #7.

Nevermind, I'm just stupid. The way people were talking on an MSU message board they made it sound like Miami was on the bubble, so I didn't even look past #10 for them.

Priceless
03-10-2012, 04:04 AM
Rule of thumb... the (TV) media knows more than us on some injuries and some inside stories.

But generally, we know more than most of the (TV) media... and further on things of technical details we know A LOT more than the media.

The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.

sterlippo1
03-10-2012, 07:19 AM
The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.

he learned that PWR meant "power ranking" from Craig Janney:rolleyes:

Yupe1228
03-10-2012, 08:01 AM
What are BU's chances for a bid if they lose tonight?

Priceless
03-10-2012, 08:54 AM
What are BU's chances for a bid if they lose tonight?
Still good, but if they lose and all home teams/favorites win tonight they'd be #11 (t9) and they'd be susceptible to falling out next weekend. After the Hockey East final I project them at #13 with four CCHA teams right behind them, so they are far from safe. Conference upsets could hurt them as well if the cut line moves up from 15th.
Short of winning, BU needs Michigan and Miami to take care of business tonight and they will be in a very strong position.

mookie1995
03-10-2012, 10:50 AM
So as the highest 4th seed bu would get the worst 1 seed, or the ccha 1 seed if there are multiple ccha teams also seeded in a 4.

All this means is anyplace sans Worcester is in play