PDA

View Full Version : 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 [32] 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51

Numbers
03-06-2012, 05:37 PM
Everything written here is based on what I have done with my scripts based on things that are LIKELY to happen. I do not do wacky scenarios, like RPI winning the ECAC or Mankato conquering the WCHA. There may very well be scenarios out there that do not match up with what is written below. If you can find them, more power to you. If they actually happen, you should have gone to Vegas. As Jim Dahl pointed out this morning, there are more than just a few scenarios out there.

I'll be editing this as I go.

Who is in:
Boston College - The lowest I can get them is 7th. I can't get both Lowell and BU ahead of the Eagles. If the Hockey East title came down to them, only the winner would finish ahead of the Eagles. BC's astronomical RPI and stellar record vs TUC's keep them ahead of most teams, even if they get swept at the hands of UMass. If they sweep UMass it will be very difficult to unseat BC from the #1 seed overall.

Michigan is not in, but only by the narrowest of margins. I can get them to 12. Unless all four major conferences produce an upset, they are in.

Lowell is not in by a large margin. I can get them down to 15th rather easily.

Duluth appears to have a floor of 12th, so they are in the same boat as Michigan.

Priceless,
I assume everyone else can easily fall out of the field? And, have you gotten anywhere with teams who need to win their conf tourney to make the field?

Thanks.

bottomdweller
03-06-2012, 07:10 PM
Yes, if BU should pass BC and both remain #1 seeds, the committee would send BU to Worcester and BC to Bridgeport.

The script for the weekend:


20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
20120309 MA 0 BC 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 AA 0 Mn 1 nc
20120309 MT 0 CC 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 BS 0 ND 1 nc
20120309 NO 0 SC 1 nc
20120309 Mk 0 MD 1 nc
20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc
20120309 RP 0 Un 1 nc
20120309 MS 0 Mm 1 nc
20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc
20120309 LS 0 WM 1 nc
20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 RM 0 Ni 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc

Copy this for Saturday's games. Change the 0 to a 2 for a road victory - and remember to add a 3rd game to a series if you project a road win in any game. Exact game dates are not important (the UML-PC series starts on a Thursday, for example). Most sites will have a YATC script set up for the conference semis and finals next week.

What does the 1 and the 0 mean in the script?

irishfan85
03-06-2012, 07:50 PM
What does the 1 and the 0 mean in the script?

Winner has a 1, loser a 0

BC/HE
03-06-2012, 08:51 PM
CLS,
Actually, my preference, in a perfect world where the committee members could be trusted to be fair and honest (I don't think that exists, really), would be to start at the top of the PWR, kick the committee member from the conference of the team in question out of the room, and vote "Is this the #1 team?" I think there would be 4 votes, so give the PWR the 5th vote. If yes, move to #2. If no, move to the second team and see if they are the #1 team. Stipulate that you can only fall or rise 3 spots from the PWR (or something like that). Create the bracket as you go.

But, like I said, that's in a perfect world. In the real world, there are always deals going on. So, you couldn't do that. Instead, i would be in favor of allowing as you said, .0020 in the RPI or something like that, or 1 PWR comparison won. And, only for the sake of avoiding intraconference matchups, attendance, or the integrity of the #1 seed v AHA Champ game.

Also, there is one other thing about that. In my example above, I swapped the 12 and 14 seeds. I have to think about one other point: Since the #14 is now playing in the #12's usual place, what happens if the #12 and #13 win in round 1, and play in the Regional Finals? Who gets last change?

For that matter, as it is now, if 2 #2 seeds play in the National Semis, who gets last change?

Thanks for the help.

First I believe that even though teams may be #2 seeds they are still given rankings 5,6,7,8 so the higher ranked team would be the home team.

Secondly as a BC fan I am not concerned about the necessity to get the #16 team if BC ends up #1. Look at 2009 as a perfect example. BU got Ohio State because of conflicts with 2 CCHA #1's and 2 CCHA #4's instead of getting #16 Air Force. Remember the fuss then? Princeton I believe sat at #12 with the same PWR ranking as #13 but no change was made. BU went on to win the NC and Michigan was ousted by Air Force in the first round. And who is to say that a team from the lower echelons of a power conference may win their autobid and is actually lower ranked than the AHA champ. You have to win 4 games and if you cannot beat a #4 seed you probably would fall to someone else along the way anyway. That is why a tweak to perfect it is not necessary. If the gameplan is to make sure the #4 seeds don't have a chance then just go back to a 12 team tournament or play the games at the #1 seed's home rink.

Patman
03-06-2012, 09:15 PM
The thing is, unless you are top of the top it's mostly a cointoss. Even if you are top of the top it's somewhat better than a cointoss. We know what it's like during the year... Same rules apply.

That being said, if seeds and rank are to mean anything then they should give some advantage otherwise why have them?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-06-2012, 10:37 PM
Attendance would be great in Bridgeport with 3 CCHA teams and Union. :p

You also have an all-CCHA first round game. That's incredibly unlikely.

Maine and Air Force go to Bridgeport and Miami and Western go to Worcester. Or BU and Union trade places. But the 1-16 pairing is gone. Just ask Cornell.

I agree. I did not put together the brackets. :)

Also, I just want to thank IrishFan85 for being my new stalker. After JDubbs got banned I was missing the extra attention :p:D:D

vizoroo
03-07-2012, 11:59 AM
I agree. I did not put together the brackets. :)

Also, I just want to thank IrishFan85 for being my new stalker. After JDubbs got banned I was missing the extra attention :p:D:D Hate to tell you this , but JDubbs is back :eek::eek:

alnike
03-07-2012, 12:09 PM
Is anyone aware of a website which has archived the PWR for recent seasons, (especially 2009-10)? Thanks.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-07-2012, 12:29 PM
Hate to tell you this , but JDubbs is back :eek::eek:

Wonderful.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-07-2012, 12:33 PM
Is anyone aware of a website which has archived the PWR for recent seasons, (especially 2009-10)? Thanks.

tbrw.info has that information if you click on their index and then the PWR link

2009-2010 Final PWR:
1. Miami
2. Denver
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. St. Cloud State
7. Cornell
8. Bemidji State
9. Yale
10. Northern Michigan
11t. New Hampshire
11t. Michigan
11t. Alaska
11t. Vermont
15t. Ferris State
15t. Michigan State
17. Minnesota-Duluth
18. Maine
19. Union
20t. Colorado College
20t. Nebraska Omaha
20t. UMass-Lowell
23. Boston University
24. Minnesota
25. RIT

Priceless
03-07-2012, 08:22 PM
What teams need to make the tournament:

Eliminated from consideration:
Independent - Alabama-Huntsville
AHA - Canisius, Army, AIC, Sacred Heart
ECAC - Clarkson, Brown, St Lawrence, Princeton
CCHA - Alaska, Ohio State
Hockey East - Vermont, Northeastern

Need the autobid:
AHA - Everyone
ECAC - Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Yale, RPI, Colgate, Harvard
CCHA - Lake Superior, Bowling Green
WCHA - Alaska-Anchorage, Bemidji State, Wisconsin, St Cloud, Michigan Tech, Nebraska-Omaha, Mankato
Hockey East - UMass, Providence, New Hampshire

In:
Hockey East - Boston College

In with a sweep this weekend:
CCHA - Michigan, Ferris State, Miami
WCHA - Minnesota, Minn-Duluth
Hockey East - Lowell, Boston University, Maine

So if all the above teams sweep there will be ten spots taken. (8+BC+AHA autobid)
All those teams can still get in if they lose this weekend.

What bubble teams need to do (short of winning the autobid)
ECAC -
Union: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City.
Cornell: Win a TUC game at Atlantic City

CCHA -
Western Michigan: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Michigan State: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe OR hope for help.
Notre Dame: Win this weekend. Win a TUC game at the Joe and hope for help.
Northern Michigan: Eliminated from the CCHA tournament. Must hope for help.

WCHA -
Denver: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
North Dakota: Win a game at the Final Five or hope for help.
Colorado College: Win two games at the Final Five and/or hope for help.

Hockey East -
Merrimack: Win one and hope for help. Win this weekend and one in Boston.

Notes:
The losers of Michigan State/Miami and Merrimack/Maine series are not eliminated. They will need help, but they aren't out.
Because of the third-place game, the ECAC can still put three team in the tournament.
The odds of Northern Michigan making the field are still very good, as long as there aren't upset winners taking the autobids and moving the cut line up.

As always, there are going to be scenarios out there I haven't calculated. Jim Dahl showed us earlier how many scenarios there still are and I would still be doing the calculations from the retirement home if I tried them all. These are the most likely scenarios. The easiest way to get into the tournament is always to win your conference and get the autobid.

Priceless
03-07-2012, 08:36 PM
The script for all remaining games:


20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
20120309 MA 0 BC 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 Pv 0 ML 1 nc
20120309 MA 0 BC 1 nc
20120309 NH 0 BU 1 nc
20120309 Mr 0 Me 1 nc
20120309 Me 0 BC 1 nc
20120309 BU 0 ML 1 nc
20120309 ML 0 BC 1 nc

20120309 AA 0 Mn 1 nc
20120309 MT 0 CC 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 BS 0 ND 1 nc
20120309 NO 0 SC 1 nc
20120309 Mk 0 MD 1 nc
20120309 AA 0 Mn 1 nc
20120309 MT 0 CC 1 nc
20120309 Wi 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 BS 0 ND 1 nc
20120309 NO 0 SC 1 nc
20120309 Mk 0 MD 1 nc
20120309 SC 0 DU 1 nc
20120309 CC 0 ND 1 nc
20120309 ND 0 Mn 1 nc
20120309 DU 0 MD 1 nc
20120309 MD 0 Mn 1 nc

20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc
20120309 RP 0 Un 1 nc
20120309 Qn 0 Cg 1 nc
20120309 Da 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 Ya 0 Ha 1 nc
20120309 RP 0 Un 1 nc
20120309 Cg 0 Un 1 nc
20120309 Ha 0 Cr 1 nc
20120309 Cg 0 Ha 1 nc
20120309 Cr 0 Un 1 nc

20120309 MS 0 Mm 1 nc
20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc
20120309 LS 0 WM 1 nc
20120309 MS 0 Mm 1 nc
20120309 BG 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 Nt 0 Mi 1 nc
20120309 LS 0 WM 1 nc
20120309 Mm 0 FS 1 nc
20120309 WM 0 Mi 1 nc
20120309 Mm 0 WM 1 nc
20120309 Mi 0 FS 1 nc

20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 RM 0 Ni 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
20120309 Ct 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 HC 0 Mh 1 nc
20120309 RM 0 Ni 1 nc
20120309 By 0 RT 1 nc
20120309 Mh 0 AF 1 nc
20120309 RT 0 Ni 1 nc
20120309 Ni 0 AF 1 nc

0=Loser,1=Winner
To change the outcome change the 0 to a 2
If you change the outcomes remember:
- To add a third game if needed
- To change the teams in semifinals/finals/third-place game.

If higher seeds win every game:


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Ferris State (CC)
3 Michigan (CC)
4 Minnesota (WC)
5 Union (EC)
6 Mass-Lowell (HE)
7 Minn-Duluth (WC)
8 Boston Univ (HE)
9 Denver U (WC)
10 North Dakota (WC)
11 Miami (CC)
12 Maine (HE)
13 Cornell (EC)
14 Mich State (CC)
15 Western Mich (CC)
---
16 Northern Mich (CC)



Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Ferris St Boston C Minnesota Michigan
Minn-Duluth Boston U Union Lowell
Maine Denver No Dakota Miami
Air Force W Mich Mich St Cornell

The TUC line

NorthEastern 0.5071
Niagara 0.5066
Wisconsin 0.5064
Quinnipiac 0.5039
Bemidji State 0.5032
RIT 0.5023
--
Mass-Amherst 0.4979
New Hampshire 0.4955

beersong
03-07-2012, 08:45 PM
Does Miami plan on using a split squad? ;) Good to see the NCAA banning UND already. ;)

Patman
03-07-2012, 10:20 PM
Hey... Jim Dahl... if you're lurking around here I'm trying to register for the Sioux Sports boards (as UML Pat) to leave a comment about automation. I don't know what software you're using but its fairly easy to create dynamically named graphs in R so long as you are able to index the team name and the results... the "paste" command is fairly useful for concatenating strings. So, as long as your output is fairly sane I'm sure you can read in and get going. Let me know.


for(index in 1:nteams){
plot(rank.ord~prob[index,],xlim=c(min(rank.ord[prob!=0,]),max(rank.ord[prob!=0,])),ylim=c(0,1))
title(paste("Pairwise Scenario for ",team.names[index],"blahblah",sep=""),"Pairwise Rank")
}

Certainly some data prep needed... maybe some messing around with plotting options, but nothing crazy.

Numbers
03-07-2012, 10:44 PM
For Priceless,

I thought I saw earlier that you couldn't get BC below 7th. What's up now? Is there some change because of losing Mass-Amherst and UNH as TUCs that changes that?

Thanks.

Priceless
03-07-2012, 10:58 PM
For Priceless,

I thought I saw earlier that you couldn't get BC below 7th. What's up now? Is there some change because of losing Mass-Amherst and UNH as TUCs that changes that?

Thanks.

Correct. I mixed up Michigan and BC. Fixed.

BUPhD
03-07-2012, 11:04 PM
How the heck does that mixup even happen? ;)

Go-UML
03-08-2012, 05:32 AM
How the heck does that mixup even happen? ;)Lots and lots of alcohol.

JimDahl
03-08-2012, 09:07 AM
Hey... Jim Dahl... if you're lurking around here I'm trying to register for the Sioux Sports boards (as UML Pat) to leave a comment about automation. I don't know what software you're using but its fairly easy to create dynamically named graphs in R so long as you are able to index the team name and the results... the "paste" command is fairly useful for concatenating strings. So, as long as your output is fairly sane I'm sure you can read in and get going. Let me know.


for(index in 1:nteams){
plot(rank.ord~prob[index,],xlim=c(min(rank.ord[prob!=0,]),max(rank.ord[prob!=0,])),ylim=c(0,1))
title(paste("Pairwise Scenario for ",team.names[index],"blahblah",sep=""),"Pairwise Rank")
}

Certainly some data prep needed... maybe some messing around with plotting options, but nothing crazy.

You're not the first... some of my colleagues swear by R for datavis. As you alluded to, the data prep is the missing piece. There's nothing hard about it, the crux of my problem is that I only think about this stuff for about 2 months a year, and then have to devote the available time to creating the product (80% of which is data transformation). I just need to devote some time in the off-season to automating that, which is a definite goal.

UnionHockeyManiac
03-08-2012, 09:52 AM
Priceless, if Union doesn't make it to AC, can we still make the tournament?

And are we pretty much guaranteed to make the tournament if we win one TUC game in AC?

Thanks in advance.