Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Red Cows View Post
    Are there any working Pairwise calculators out there yet for this season? These don't seem to show up until the end of the regular season.

    I am trying to get a handle on what would happen in various scenarios if UNO were to win out the regular season, win their first series in the WCHA tournament, and at least one more game beyond that. Basically, if they can get in without winning the conference tournament.

    Probably asking a lot this soon since the permutations/possibilities are still endless.

    Playoffstatus.com shows UNO having a chance to make the tournament (albeit not a very good one) without winning the conference tourney. I am trying to figure out what that scenario is.

    http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html
    Keep in mind that playoffstatus.com does not rank teams by PWR, but rather their own ranking system. For Example, Union is #14 in their ranking, while they are #7 in the PWR. That is something to keep in mind when looking at that site.
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

    Comment


    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
      The Do-It-Yourself calculator is now up to date and includes all games. The script for the remaining regular season games is:

      20120224 Ar 0 SH 0 ah
      20120224 Mh 0 Ca 0 ah
      20120224 Ct 0 AI 0 ah
      20120224 AF 0 RM 0 ah
      20120224 RT 0 Ni 0 ah
      20120224 HC 0 By 0 ah
      20120224 OS 0 Mm 0 cc
      20120224 LS 0 NM 0 cc
      20120224 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
      20120224 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
      20120224 FS 0 WM 0 cc
      20120224 Bn 0 Qn 0 ec
      20120224 Ya 0 Pn 0 ec
      20120224 SL 0 Ha 0 ec
      20120224 Ck 0 Da 0 ec
      20120224 Un 0 Cr 0 ec
      20120224 RP 0 Cg 0 ec
      20120224 BU 0 Vt 0 he
      20120224 NH 0 MA 0 he
      20120224 Me 0 NE 0 he
      20120224 BC 0 Pv 0 he
      20120224 ML 0 Mr 0 he
      20120224 ND 0 DU 0 wc
      20120224 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
      20120224 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
      20120224 SC 0 MT 0 wc
      20120224 CC 0 MD 0 wc
      20120224 Ak 0 AA 0 nc
      20120225 ND 0 DU 0 wc
      20120225 SC 0 MT 0 wc
      20120225 CC 0 MD 0 wc
      20120225 Mn 0 NO 0 wc
      20120225 Wi 0 BS 0 wc
      20120225 AA 0 Ak 0 nc
      20120225 Mr 0 ML 0 he
      20120225 NH 0 MA 0 he
      20120225 Me 0 NE 0 he
      20120225 BU 0 Vt 0 he
      20120225 Pv 0 BC 0 he
      20120225 Ck 0 Ha 0 ec
      20120225 Un 0 Cg 0 ec
      20120225 RP 0 Cr 0 ec
      20120225 Bn 0 Pn 0 ec
      20120225 Ya 0 Qn 0 ec
      20120225 SL 0 Da 0 ec
      20120225 LS 0 NM 0 cc
      20120225 WM 0 FS 0 cc
      20120225 MS 0 Nt 0 cc
      20120225 Mi 0 BG 0 cc
      20120225 Mm 0 OS 0 cc
      20120225 AF 0 RM 0 ah
      20120225 Ni 0 RT 0 ah
      20120225 SH 0 Ar 0 ah
      20120225 Ca 0 Mh 0 ah
      20120225 AI 0 Ct 0 ah
      20120225 By 0 HC 0 ah
      20120302 MT 0 CC 0 wc
      20120302 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
      20120302 DU 0 NO 0 wc
      20120302 MD 0 SC 0 wc
      20120302 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
      20120302 BS 0 AA 0 wc
      20120302 Vt 0 BC 0 he
      20120302 NE 0 BU 0 he
      20120302 ML 0 Pv 0 he
      20120302 Mr 0 MA 0 he
      20120303 MT 0 CC 0 wc
      20120303 MD 0 SC 0 wc
      20120303 Mk 0 ND 0 wc
      20120303 Wi 0 Mn 0 wc
      20120303 DU 0 NO 0 wc
      20120303 BS 0 AA 0 wc
      20120303 Vt 0 BC 0 he
      20120303 MA 0 Mr 0 he
      20120303 BU 0 NE 0 he
      20120303 NH 0 Me 0 he
      20120303 Pv 0 ML 0 he

      The score of all games is defaulted to 0-0. To choose a winner change the 0 to a 1. For example, to decide the March 3 UNH-Maine game

      To have Maine win
      20120303 NH 0 Me 1 he
      To have UNH win
      20120303 NH 1 Me 0 he
      To have the game end in a tie, leave it.
      Make sure you choose the "Specify results" option.
      Also, it should be noted that this script does not include the conference playoffs at all, correct Priceless? So, this would take care of the regular season, and then you have to put in the playoffs yourself.

      The way to do that in that script is
      (4digityear)(2digitmonth)(2digitday)(space)(team1) (space)(goalsscoredbyteam1)(space)(team2)(goalssco redbyteam2)(space)(NC)

      Obviously, for this year's conference tourneys, that reduces to
      201203(2digitdate) and then the rest. NC means non-conference. Conference playoff games are non-conference schedule games.

      You have to make sure you use the right 2 digit code for each team.

      And, the winner does not have to be listed first.

      And, you do that for each game. Of course, you need to be careful to adjust who plays who down the line, to make sure you get the conference tourney brackets right.

      I think I got all that right, didn't I Priceless?
      Last edited by Numbers; 02-21-2012, 03:07 PM.

      Comment


      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        And, one more thing, IronRange,

        There are so many games left that it is really hard to predict much other than random chance right now. As an example, if you are familiar at all with the PWR, you know that one component is record against TUCs, or teams with a .500 RPI.

        I am a Gopher fan. The Gophers lost to Northeastern this year, so it is to Minnesota's advantage that Northeastern not be a TUC - that loss does not count on their TUC record that way.

        Right now, as far as I can tell, there is a chance that if Northeastern is swept this weekend, their RPI will fall below .500, and also they will not qualify for the HE tourney. That might be a great result for Minnesota. But, again, it might not, because all the tourney games might end up bumping Northeastern's RPI above .500 anyway, even if they don't play.

        On the other hand, there is a chance they can be swept, and still make the tourney, and then lose in the first round, and then their RPI should be safely (to Minnesota's thinking) below .500.

        All for one loss against a TUC to come off the Gophers' record. But, that one loss might be the difference in one or two comparisons, and that might make the difference between a 2 seed and 3 seed, or even a 4.

        So, with all that in play, I think you can see why right now, the odds of UND being at the X can only be guessed at by 'random' if they make the field.

        Comment


        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          When does Moy usually do his version?

          Comment


          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by J.D. View Post
            When does Moy usually do his version?
            Moy does his version on Wednesdays. But, it is not a prediction. Rather, it is an "if the season ended today, this is what the comittee would do." As such, it is more a primer on the process, than a real prediction of what the actual bracket will look like. His only prediction is on Saturday night after all the games are played.

            Another valuable resource will be coming soon on collegehockeynews.com. That is Adam Wodon's creation. What he does is called, "Bracket ABCs." It's not a prediction of the actual bracket, but rather a breakdown of which teams need what to happen in order to make the field. So, the talks about TUC records of various schools, and also a few ComOpp matchups that hinder schools in the PWR.

            All of that is not perfect. I remember last year, reading that it was hardly going to be possible for Minnesota to make the tourney... And, we know they didn't. However, had they not lost their quarterfinal to AA, they would have been in anyway, because so many little things fell their way.

            PWR is a very complex calculation, and teams are tightly bunched....

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
              And, one more thing, IronRange,

              There are so many games left that it is really hard to predict much other than random chance right now. As an example, if you are familiar at all with the PWR, you know that one component is record against TUCs, or teams with a .500 RPI.

              I am a Gopher fan. The Gophers lost to Northeastern this year, so it is to Minnesota's advantage that Northeastern not be a TUC - that loss does not count on their TUC record that way.

              Right now, as far as I can tell, there is a chance that if Northeastern is swept this weekend, their RPI will fall below .500, and also they will not qualify for the HE tourney. That might be a great result for Minnesota. But, again, it might not, because all the tourney games might end up bumping Northeastern's RPI above .500 anyway, even if they don't play.

              On the other hand, there is a chance they can be swept, and still make the tourney, and then lose in the first round, and then their RPI should be safely (to Minnesota's thinking) below .500.

              All for one loss against a TUC to come off the Gophers' record. But, that one loss might be the difference in one or two comparisons, and that might make the difference between a 2 seed and 3 seed, or even a 4.

              So, with all that in play, I think you can see why right now, the odds of UND being at the X can only be guessed at by 'random' if they make the field.
              Very interesting stuff. Thanks
              @MNState0fHockey on Twitter
              On the Web at www.mnhockeycentral.com
              High School, Gophers, and Wild News on Facebook at Minnesota Hockey Central

              Comment


              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                Moy does his version on Wednesdays. But, it is not a prediction. Rather, it is an "if the season ended today, this is what the comittee would do." As such, it is more a primer on the process, than a real prediction of what the actual bracket will look like. His only prediction is on Saturday night after all the games are played.

                Another valuable resource will be coming soon on collegehockeynews.com. That is Adam Wodon's creation. What he does is called, "Bracket ABCs." It's not a prediction of the actual bracket, but rather a breakdown of which teams need what to happen in order to make the field. So, the talks about TUC records of various schools, and also a few ComOpp matchups that hinder schools in the PWR.

                All of that is not perfect. I remember last year, reading that it was hardly going to be possible for Minnesota to make the tourney... And, we know they didn't. However, had they not lost their quarterfinal to AA, they would have been in anyway, because so many little things fell their way.

                PWR is a very complex calculation, and teams are tightly bunched....
                Oh I know, no worries. It's still fun trying to predict what the committee would do under certain scenarios. What's funny is when it comes time to actually reveal the bracket, there never seems to be any controversial moves.

                Comment


                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                  Keep in mind that playoffstatus.com does not rank teams by PWR, but rather their own ranking system. For Example, Union is #14 in their ranking, while they are #7 in the PWR. That is something to keep in mind when looking at that site.
                  Wow, thanks. I glossed over that.

                  What the hell good is their little system if it has no real meaning?

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Red Cows View Post
                    Wow, thanks. I glossed over that.

                    What the hell good is their little system if it has no real meaning?
                    The Poles have meaning.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by Wol4ine View Post
                      Of course I can't speak for all Michigan fans, for me this is nothing to 'scream' about. For the last 20, 21 years Michigan is more likely to face off against the WCHA in the NCAA's than any other team in Div 1. Last year we had to run a 4 team WCHA gauntlet to win the NC. We were 3 out of 4, a .750 win percentage vs the WCHA was good, but not good enough. I think our overall record vs the WCHA during those 20 years is a respectable .600. Considering that Union creamed us this season, I don't see anyone in the top 15 that is a gimme. We've played UND at the Ralph and at the Xcel, I prefer the Xcel. We've played UNH at the Verizon in Manchester. We've played BC at the Fleet Center. We've played Minnesota at the Xcel (I don't think we've ever faced the gophers at Mariucci during the NCAA's) I get the feeling that playing in front of other teams home crowds doesn't intimidate Michigan as much as it must other schools.
                      I'm sure there are other schools that have had similar experiences. UND has played each of the Boston schools in Boston, UNH in Manchester, Wisconsin at Kohl, Denver in Colorado, Michigan at Yost, etc...

                      Keep in mind this.

                      First, Michigan has been in the field basically every year during your timeframe. Second, the NCAA goes out of it's way to keep teams from playing others in their own conference, at least during the first round. Finally, I would guess that the WCHA has placed about as many teams in the tournament as anyone else during that stretch. If Michigan is there every year, they can't play the CCHA and at least a fourth of the teams are WCHA teams, pretty clear who you're going to have to play.
                      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                        I don't have the time to do it, but it would be mildly interesting to see how many times Michigan has faced WCHA teams in comparison with other schools. North Dakota alone played BC in the NCAA Tournament 7 times from 1999-2008. Of course, the Sioux also have played Michigan 4 times since 1998.
                        I ran the numbers. for the last 21 years (since 1991) MIchigan is 29-21 overall in the NCAA. (They had 3 losses that first year, in best of 3 went Cornell 2-1 and BU 0-2). BC has a 29-9 record in that time. Maine is next highest 23-11.
                        Michigan hasn't played anyone more than 4 times.
                        vs CC 3-1
                        vs Wisc 3-1
                        vs Minn 2-2
                        vs UND 2-2
                        vs DU 2-0
                        vs Maine 1-3
                        vs BU 1-3
                        vs UNH 2-1
                        vs BC 1-2 (but that was a big 1 in '98)

                        @ SJH
                        Shouldn't the percentages of games played vs WCHA for UM be the same for MSU? other CCHA teams? They are not.
                        UM has played the WCHA 23 times (16-7) out of all 50 (29-21) games in the NCAA's.==>46%
                        MSU has played the WCHA 8 times (3-5) out of all 23 (10-13) games in the NCAA's.==>35%
                        Miami has played the WCHA 4 times (2-2) out of all 16 (7-9) games in the NCAA's.==>25%
                        All other CCHA teams have played the WCHA 11 times (4-7) out of all 44 (21-23) games in the NCAA's.==>25%

                        Maine has played the WCHA the next most often, 13 times (7-6)
                        BC has played the WCHA the next most often, 12 times (8-4)
                        No man is entitled to the benefits of freedom if he is not vigilant in its preservation. - Douglas MacArthur

                        The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it. - Albert Einstein

                        I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.- Thomas Jefferson

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                          Also, it should be noted that this script does not include the conference playoffs at all, correct Priceless? So, this would take care of the regular season, and then you have to put in the playoffs yourself.

                          The way to do that in that script is
                          (4digityear)(2digitmonth)(2digitday)(space)(team1) (space)(goalsscoredbyteam1)(space)(team2)(goalssco redbyteam2)(space)(NC)

                          Obviously, for this year's conference tourneys, that reduces to
                          201203(2digitdate) and then the rest. NC means non-conference. Conference playoff games are non-conference schedule games.

                          You have to make sure you use the right 2 digit code for each team.

                          And, the winner does not have to be listed first.

                          And, you do that for each game. Of course, you need to be careful to adjust who plays who down the line, to make sure you get the conference tourney brackets right.

                          I think I got all that right, didn't I Priceless?
                          Spot on. Usually road team is listed first, but that's cosmetic, and a byproduct of the old RPI-bonus system. Seedings for the conference playoffs have not been set obviously, but I will release a script once playoff matchups are finalized. The YATC calculators on this site and others should kick off before the conference semi-finals and finals.

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            You could always make a PWR spreadsheet that automatically calculates and seeds the conference tournaments
                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
                            College Hockey 6       College Football 0
                            BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                              You could always make a PWR spreadsheet that automatically calculates and seeds the conference tournaments
                              I'm bored, and usually have lots of time on my hands...but not THAT much.

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by Red Cows View Post
                                Wow, thanks. I glossed over that.

                                What the hell good is their little system if it has no real meaning?
                                Isn't that true of any system?

                                I suspect that their website does take into account the full use of pairwise... I also suspect that it doesn't handle tie-breakers as specified... but mostly because its difficult... but for all I know they do. I also don't know if they try to predict tie games.

                                That being said, as a rough application, I trust them. Not for a precise story but certainly something that gives a good indication. Between this and some of the work at Sioux Sports I think we're getting more towards things that tell the story.

                                Still wish I had my simulator though
                                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                                Jerseys I would like to have:
                                Skating Friar Jersey
                                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X