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Numbers
03-03-2012, 03:55 PM
I'm trying to remember who their beanpot first round was against... if it's bc, bc is going to win a lot in the next few weeks... that'll help pull them above water as well.

It was BC, Patman. But, that's not as obvious a result as it looks. BC has a great record already, so a few extra wins won't raise their win% that much. Particularly since whoever BC beats will have a lower win% as a result, and so it almost balances out, right?

I think that NE' non-conference schedule is more important for this calculation. That would be Michigan, 2 with Notre Dame, Princeton, Minnesota, and Harvard. Also, I understand that the Beanpot BC game is like an extra free bee, because it's non-conference. I would guess the 2 NoDame games on their schedule mean that NoDame's results may have the greatest effect, particularly if they balance strongly toward wins or losses. For example, if NoDame loses 2 tonight and tomorrow against OSU, or splits and then is swept next weekend, it lowers their win% by .027. 21% of that is about .006, and that counts for about 2/34 of NE's sched, so 1/17 of that makes, in the end, a decrease in NE's RPI of about .0003 or .0004. And, all those other teams have the ability to make about 1/2 that much difference. It is going to go up and down quite a bit.

Priceless
03-03-2012, 04:46 PM
The new TUC line:


Mass-Amherst 0.5054
Air Force 0.5046
New Hampshire 0.5039
NorthEastern 0.5022
---
NE-Omaha 0.4996
RIT 0.4985
Yale 0.4976
Niagara 0.4973



Based on this, is it possible that the AHA could get two teams in the tournament this year if RIT and Air Force make it to the Conference Championship game?

That's the TUC line. Not even close to the bubble for the NCAA. The AHA will only get the autobid this year.

Priceless
03-03-2012, 10:50 PM
No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.



Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Lowell Boston C Michigan Duluth
Boston U Union Minnesota Ferris St
Mich St Maine Miami Denver
No Dakota AHA Champ Cornell No Mich

Numbers
03-03-2012, 10:59 PM
No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.



Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Lowell Boston C Michigan Duluth
Boston U Union Minnesota Ferris St
Mich St Maine Miami Denver
No Dakota AHA Champ Cornell No Mich

Agree, totally, Priceless. There is another option, in which the committee decides that Mich/UML/UMD are all the same, and then sends UMD to St Paul anyway, but it gets really complicated and convoluted by the time it works out. EDIT:: That option basically ends up with just the Mich/Corn game and the UMD/No Mich game swapping places.

I have looked at the PWR a little in its current state. UMD has lots of downside left. That's because it is still really out of position in the PWR compared to RPI. What is propping them up right now is a very good TUC record, and we know that can be vulnerable. Not to their own play, because they have only 1 more potential loss to a TUC on their sched, but rather to opponents falling off the TUC cliff.

Numbers
03-03-2012, 11:05 PM
And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.

Patman
03-04-2012, 12:04 AM
And, for all who are interested, there is one big thing to watch for: BC, UML and BU all can have their TUC record changed alot by New Hampshire and Mass-Amherst falling off the TUC cliff. That could end up affecting lots of compares.

Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.

uniontrack
03-04-2012, 12:43 AM
False. We beat the team with a deadly power play and the number one overall seed.
And beat us you did(Union).

Hopefully, if we make it in this year, we might progress to actually scoring a goal...;)

At least we got trampled by the eventual National Champions.....

Keith.

uniontrack
03-04-2012, 12:47 AM
And, the NCAA would never do this, but I would take all the teams above whatever cutoff you want, and then use KRACH as a measuring stick, and I would ask the Math guys at Cornell to work out the most fair compare.

I'm sure the folks over at Clarkson and RPI would be offended by this decision...;)

Keith.

bottomdweller
03-04-2012, 06:19 AM
Yeah... I'd rather that UMass had kept its lead against Merrimack... they weren't going to fall out at that point.

Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.

Patman
03-04-2012, 09:19 AM
Amherst took 2 against BC this year already. I doubt they'll win their quarterfinal series, but they might be able to push it to 3. However, the two wins were at the Mullins and not at Conte.

I'd be overjoyed if UMass took out BC... I haven't looked at the math to see if 1 of 3 will do it but it'd be helpful to keep them in. As it is, NU will stay in so that's a good thing.

Amsoil
03-04-2012, 01:08 PM
No matter what happens in Anchorage


1 Boston Coll (HE)
2 Michigan (CC)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Minn-Duluth (WC)
5 Ferris State (CC)
6 Boston Univ (HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 Union (EC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Maine (HE)
11 Denver U (WC)
12 Mich State (CC)
13 North Dakota (WC)
14 Northern Mich (CC)
15 Cornell (EC)
---
16 Merrimack (HE)

Duluth loses 1st place because Minnesota rallied to defeat Wisconsin and flipped the comparison by .0006 RPI (.0004 if AA wins) and they lose ties with Michigan and Lowell.



Bridgeport Worcester St. Paul Green Bay
Lowell Boston C Michigan Duluth
Boston U Union Minnesota Ferris St
Mich St Maine Miami Denver
No Dakota AHA Champ Cornell No Mich

I'm curious. Can you explain why Michigan would not be assigned to Green Bay and UMD to St. Paul as Michigan is closer to Green Bay and UMD is closer to St. Paul in the assignment of the #1 seeds. Is it because it is a flight for Michigan either way due to the drive being more than 5 hours and it is a better fit from a seed integrity standpoint?

state of hockey
03-04-2012, 01:11 PM
False. We beat the team with a deadly power play and the number one overall seed.

You have to be dizzy from that spinning.

Biddco
03-04-2012, 01:23 PM
You have to be dizzy from that spinning.

If the cold hard facts mean spinning, consider me Fox News

state of hockey
03-04-2012, 01:29 PM
If the cold hard facts mean spinning, consider me Fox News

Don't mind if I do.

Yale and Union. *shudders with fear* :)

Priceless
03-04-2012, 01:37 PM
I'm curious. Can you explain why Michigan would not be assigned to Green Bay and UMD to St. Paul as Michigan is closer to Green Bay and UMD is closer to St. Paul in the assignment of the #1 seeds. Is it because it is a flight for Michigan either way due to the drive being more than 5 hours and it is a better fit from a seed integrity standpoint?

Because they're flying. It's reinforced because they're the #2 overall seed and Minnesota is #7. 4v7 and 2v5 are not matchups the committee wants. So, both. :)

Priceless
03-04-2012, 01:45 PM
The script for tonight's Game 3's

20120304 SH 0 By 1 nc
20120304 AI 0 RM 1 nc
20120304 BG 0 NM 1 nc
20120304 RP 0 Ck 1 nc
20120304 Bn 0 Qn 1 nc
20120304 Pn 0 Ya 1 nc

All of these teams are playing for their tournament lives. A loss tonight for Northern Michigan drops them to #16, 2 comparisons behind Cornell and Merrimack. With no games left, hard to see a way for NMU to get back in the field.

Amsoil
03-04-2012, 01:54 PM
Because they're flying. It's reinforced because they're the #2 overall seed and Minnesota is #7. 4v7 and 2v5 are not matchups the committee wants. So, both. :)

Thank you!

Numbers
03-04-2012, 08:00 PM
The script for tonight's Game 3's

20120304 SH 0 By 1 nc
20120304 AI 0 RM 1 nc
20120304 BG 0 NM 1 nc
20120304 RP 0 Ck 1 nc
20120304 Bn 0 Qn 1 nc
20120304 Pn 0 Ya 1 nc

All of these teams are playing for their tournament lives. A loss tonight for Northern Michigan drops them to #16, 2 comparisons behind Cornell and Merrimack. With no games left, hard to see a way for NMU to get back in the field.

Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in? What I get is that both the NoMich/Corn and the NoMich/Merri compares are entirely RPI dependent, and 2 losses by either Corn or Merri would swing them back to NoMich. Do you concur?

Patman
03-04-2012, 08:07 PM
Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in?

without looking... I'd say yes... but a lot of this game is spoken through TUC.

Tournament time... generally... 1. Hard to fall significantly. 2. Easy to move up.

Now, this year is a bit different... the RPI is really tight between the teams from about 4-18 or so. While certain schools have more cushion others are clearly all out of cushion. PWR is a very SENSITIVE procedure... so until we get down to next week we don't know a whole lot.

Priceless
03-04-2012, 08:08 PM
Appreciate the thought, Priceless. What happens if NoMich loses to BG, and then next week Cornell or Merrimack lose their quarterfinal? Could NoMich do the ultimate back-in?

RPI did. The Wildcats could.