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Wol4ine
02-04-2012, 11:57 PM
Bridgeport Worcester Green Bay St Paul
3) Lowell 1) BU 4) Minn-Duluth 2) Michigan
6) Boston Coll 7) Merrimack 5) Ferris St 8) Minnesota
11) Union 10) Notre Dame 12) OSU 9) Maine
14) NMU 16) AHA Champ 13) MSU 15) UND
This looks a little more pure. UMD should carry the GB regional, if not you could swap NMU/MSU as they are tied in the PWR. Personally, I hope Michigan doesn't have to go through a regional that stacked.

UMBand
02-05-2012, 12:33 AM
Well, that scenario generally fits in with the ongoing trend of Michigan getting shipped off to a hometown regional for someone else, while they themselves never get to play in a regional within a hundred miles of Ann Arbor. I'll stop complaining about it when Michigan actually plays in a regional that isn't either in the middle of nowhere in front of a crowd of 50 people or a rabid home crowd for one of the three other teams.

redwings8831
02-05-2012, 12:36 AM
Wol4ine, Ferris State and Minnesota-Duluth flipped due to UMD's loss at Anchorage.

EDIT: That also resulted in Minnesota and Merrimack flipping 7 and 8.

MagnessMan
02-05-2012, 12:45 AM
The pairwise still has many twists and turns, but they are also pretty accurate, even this far out. In mid-January the pairwise are 80% on picking the field and 31% on picking the final place. After the Beanpot concludes and non-conference games are mostly finalized, it jumps to 42% accuracy.

I don't question that at all. In looking at the PWR currently I see a very tight pack from about 7th-21st which means it will be very volatile (as it always is) in the last four weeks of the season. The only team that has not taken huge hits all season in the PWR is UMD (until tonight when they lost to UAA!!!). So given that development I take them off my list for a one seed in Green Bay and move them to two seed in East Lansing (joke--I don't even care where the regionals are). There loss proves my point---Everyone has been bouncing all over the place. Not much sense in figuring out seedings and all that crap at this point IMO. I'll shut up and let you all keep playing. I'll be back in March.

redwings8831
02-05-2012, 01:15 AM
With the changes after the UMD/UAA game taken into account:



Bridgeport Worcester Green Bay St Paul
3) Lowell 1) BU 2) Michigan 4) Ferris State
6) Boston Coll 8) Merrimack 5) Minn-Duluth 7) Minnesota
10) Notre Dame 11) Union 12) Ohio State 9) Maine
13) Mich. St. 14) NMU 16) AHA Champ 15) North Dakota

Numbers
02-05-2012, 08:32 AM
With the changes after the UMD/UAA game taken into account:



Bridgeport Worcester Green Bay St Paul
3) Lowell 1) BU 2) Michigan 4) Ferris State
6) Boston Coll 8) Merrimack 5) Minn-Duluth 7) Minnesota
10) Notre Dame 11) Union 12) Ohio State 9) Maine
13) Mich. St. 14) NMU 16) AHA Champ 15) North Dakota


It's a mess, isn't it? All kinds of possibilities for adjustments. I don't know what I would call best, but you could do any of these things.

1) Ferris and Michigan don't have major travel issues to either Green Bay or St Paul, so swap them for bracket integrity.
2) 6 CCHA teams in the field. Technically, we have more than 5, so we don't have to avoid first round matchups, so that means we could still put the AHA champ against BU in round one.
3) What's the best way to avoid Merrimack/Maine? Swap with Union or with NoDame? Bracket integrity or travel? Maybe it makes more sense to swap NoDame and Maine? Or, since there are 5 HE teams, maybe there doesn't need to be a swap?

It's just a mess right now. But, we know it will sort itself out more. By the way, what is the rule about 5 teams? I know it has only come into play before when there were 2 #2s and 3 #3s from the same conference. Is that the only time the exception applies?

Priceless
02-05-2012, 10:14 AM
By the way, what is the rule about 5 teams? I know it has only come into play before when there were 2 #2s and 3 #3s from the same conference. Is that the only time the exception applies?

Theoretically it can be used any time a league gets 5 or more teams into the tournament. The Committee would rather have the #1 overall play #13 overall than have a first round conference game.

mookie1995
02-05-2012, 11:03 AM
1 Boston University (HEA)
2t Michigan (B10)
2t Massachusetts-Lowell (HEA)
4 Ferris State (WCHA)

5 Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC)
6 Boston College (HEA)
7t Minnesota (B10)
7t Merrimack (HEA)

9 Maine (HEA)
10t Notre Dame (HEA)
10t Union (ECAC)
12 Ohio State (B10)

13t Michigan State (B10)
13t Northern Michigan (WCHA)
15t North Dakota (NCHC)
15t Colorado College (WCHA)

hockey east-6 (1,3,6,8,9,10)
b10-4 (2,7,12,13)
wcha-2 (4,14)
nchc-2 (5,15)
ecac-1 (11)
aha-1 (16)

The Rube
02-05-2012, 11:21 AM
Ferris is NOT in the WCHA.....yet.

mnstate0fhockey
02-05-2012, 11:21 AM
CC will be in the NCHC, not WCHA

The Rube
02-05-2012, 11:26 AM
CC will be in the NCHC, not WCHA

They are in the WCHA as of now.

mnstate0fhockey
02-05-2012, 11:32 AM
They are in the WCHA as of now.

I realize that, but Minnesota and Michigan aren't in the Big Ten yet, Notre Dame has yet to move to Hockey East, and North Dakota isn't in the NCHC.

I think the poster was trying to show how the tournament field would break down by future conferences, but listed CC as a future WCHA team by mistake.

mookie1995
02-05-2012, 11:36 AM
CC will be in the NCHC, not WCHA

sorry... though as they are outside right now, it didn't make a difference :p

mnstate0fhockey
02-05-2012, 11:42 AM
sorry... though as they are outside right now, it didn't make a difference :p

No biggie :)

Thanks for the break-down. Very interesting.

Numbers
02-05-2012, 11:45 AM
Theoretically it can be used any time a league gets 5 or more teams into the tournament. The Committee would rather have the #1 overall play #13 overall than have a first round conference game.

Priceless,
Really appreciate the information. Can I ask your opinion on something? Do you think it makes sense for them to have that idea: 1v13 is better than intraconference matchup? And, what would your own thought be of some kind of subjectivity in the seeding part of making the bracket? For example, I totally agree with the idea that math alone decides the field. Things are too close for any other way. But, once we have decided the field, it seems the committee has hamstring itself with strict seeding bands. Sometimes it happens that #12 and #13 are really tied. And, that #12 is just what they need as a 4th seed to make a better bracket. Or, the #13 works better as the last #3 seed. Do you see what I am asking?

The Rube
02-05-2012, 11:48 AM
I realize that, but Minnesota and Michigan aren't in the Big Ten yet, Notre Dame has yet to move to Hockey East, and North Dakota isn't in the NCHC.

I think the poster was trying to show how the tournament field would break down by future conferences, but listed CC as a future WCHA team by mistake.

Ah, I see what mookie's doing now. My error. :o

Happy
02-05-2012, 11:53 AM
Well, that scenario generally fits in with the ongoing trend of Michigan getting shipped off to a hometown regional for someone else, while they themselves never get to play in a regional within a hundred miles of Ann Arbor. I'll stop complaining about it when Michigan actually plays in a regional that isn't either in the middle of nowhere in front of a crowd of 50 people or a rabid home crowd for one of the three other teams.

stop whining, Michigan has played more NCAA games in their own state than probably anyone.

JDUBBS1280
02-05-2012, 12:00 PM
Priceless,
Really appreciate the information. Can I ask your opinion on something? Do you think it makes sense for them to have that idea: 1v13 is better than intraconference matchup? And, what would your own thought be of some kind of subjectivity in the seeding part of making the bracket? For example, I totally agree with the idea that math alone decides the field. Things are too close for any other way. But, once we have decided the field, it seems the committee has hamstring itself with strict seeding bands. Sometimes it happens that #12 and #13 are really tied. And, that #12 is just what they need as a 4th seed to make a better bracket. Or, the #13 works better as the last #3 seed. Do you see what I am asking?

I agree numbers that the math SHOULD be the determining factor, unfortunately the NCAA will always follow the money, where it can be influenced to benifit the bottom line it will be influenced imo.

Numbers
02-05-2012, 12:01 PM
Well, that scenario generally fits in with the ongoing trend of Michigan getting shipped off to a hometown regional for someone else, while they themselves never get to play in a regional within a hundred miles of Ann Arbor. I'll stop complaining about it when Michigan actually plays in a regional that isn't either in the middle of nowhere in front of a crowd of 50 people or a rabid home crowd for one of the three other teams.

Sorry you feel this way UMB. I suppose you know that the assignment of teams follows a relatively strict formula. There really isn't much room for the committee to intentionally give any school a bad situation. So, if Mich ends up as a #2 seed across from either BU or Lowell or someone else from the east (by across I mean 1v8; 2v7 etc), the odds are really good they go to the east coast. That wouldn't be in the middle of nowhere, nor a rabid home crowd. Might be a slightly rabid home crowd...

Alternatively, you could try to convince Michigan as a school to put in a bid to host at the Joe. Then it would be your rabid home crowd...

Hammer
02-05-2012, 12:05 PM
Well, seeing as how Joe Louis Arena has no interest whatsoever in hosting another regional, that last part is kinda tough. Their best bet is trying to host any regional headed to Grand Rapids.