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Laker Dude
03-10-2012, 08:53 AM
Are you sure about that?

I was just considering MSU losing 1 more game. I did not consider all of the other results factored in.

davyd83
03-10-2012, 10:55 AM
I was just considering MSU losing 1 more game. I did not consider all of the other results factored in.

All the other results get factored in.

NMUFAN21
03-11-2012, 10:58 PM
From what I understand we want Miami to beat Western and Bowling Green to lose at least one game next weekend. Does anyone know the new odds?

davyd83
03-12-2012, 10:07 AM
From what I understand we want Miami to beat Western and Bowling Green to lose at least one game next weekend. Does anyone know the new odds?

We want Western to lose twice. That's the best case for NMU.

aparch
03-12-2012, 10:38 AM
Does anyone know the new odds?
Shine up the crystal ball yourself: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

In the three scenarios I tried, I had NMU at 14th with only one Automatic Qualifier spot below them (AHA winner). I've read on twitter that NMU can get as high as 13th and be in, or be 14th with three Automatic Qualifiers below them (meaning they miss the tourney).

It's still a wait and see game at this point. I'd wager that the % is still around 25%. WMU and BGSU could still ruin it.

Also, if you use the tool and have BGSU slated to win the whole da** thing, they will NOT show up on the PWR calculation because they are NOT a Team Under Consideration. You would need to pencil them in your top 16 yourself.

aparch
03-12-2012, 10:45 AM
From the Bracketology thread just below this one:
http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?98386-2012-NCAA-Tournament-Bracketology&p=5394406#post5394406

Teams we're interested in are bolded:

I meant to finish this last night but ran into some glitches and opted for sleep. Here's my first pass at the possibilities. I'll do more work on the details, but am throwing the first pass up for a sanity check from the crowd. Anyone find anything outside these ranges (assuming an RPI tie breaker)?

BC 1-3
Michigan 1-6
Miami 1-14
Duluth 1-11
Ferris St 3-10
BU 2-13
Minnesota 2-13
Maine 3-14
UND 2-14
Mass.-Lowell 6-14
Mich. St. 13-18
Western Mich. 7-18
Denver 3-14
N. Michigan 13-17
Union 2-15
Merrimack 14-20
St. Cloud 13-26
Cornell 4-18
Harvard 15-28

Things that would help: Favorites winning their titles. SCSU losing. WMU losing. BGSU playing like NMU and winning the Walt Kyle Invitational (Third Place CCHA game). Union winning their league title IF Cornell loses two games.

aparch
03-12-2012, 02:22 PM
NMU has a 44.4% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/12/ncaa-tournament-selection-pwr-possibilities/

IF two Automatic Qualifiers come from below NMU, NMU's chances are only 11.5%.

RaceBoarder
03-12-2012, 02:38 PM
I hate math....

Just wake me next Sunday morning...

aparch
03-14-2012, 03:28 PM
Sioux Sports says mathmatically, NMU has 15% chance of making tourney:

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/14/a-detailed-look-at-nmus-chances/

aparch
03-15-2012, 11:01 PM
Final Five quarterfinal games are over. Tech and St, Clooud both lose. Which means: Nothing for our Pairwise. Except for the fact that neither team could steal away an auto-bid spot (both were lower than us in the Pairwise).


I wonder how strange it is for Walt to be in this position. The last time NMU was in a situation like this was 2002-03 when NMU WON the third place game over tOSU at the CCHA Championship... Prior to that would have been the 2001-02 season when two automatic qualifiers bumped NMU and UAF.

2001-02: 12 teams. 2 Unranked Automatic Qualifiers. NMU ranked 12th in PWR.
2002-03: 16 teams. NMU ranked 17th in PWR.
2003-04: 16 teams. NMU not ranked.
2004-05: 16 teams. NMU ranked 18th in PWR.
2005-06: 16 teams. NMU ranked 18th in PWR.
2006-07: 16 teams. NMU not ranked.
2007-08: 16 teams. NMU ranked 21st in PWR.
2008-09: 16 teams. NMU ranked 23rd in PWR.
2009-10: 16 teams. NMU ranked 10th in PWR.
2010-11: 16 teams. NMU not ranked.

Freddie
03-15-2012, 11:12 PM
Sioux Sports says mathmatically, NMU has 15% chance of making tourney:

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/14/a-detailed-look-at-nmus-chances/

The first line of this article says it all: "Assuming all game outcomes are equally likely, Northern Michigan stands something like a 15% chance of making that tournament." That makes all the rest of the article worthless, as we know that all game outcomes are NOT equally likely. 15% is WAY to generous for your chances; that would translate to better than 7-1 odds. As it stands today, BG has a better chance of making the NCAAs than NMU.

John Biasi
03-15-2012, 11:47 PM
One scenario I found: If Union beats Harvard in the ECAC championship, Colgate beats Cornell in the consolation, and Bowling Green and Providence do not win their tournaments (they can win one game), Northern Michigan is in. Add in one Western Michigan win in the semifinals or consolation and half the CCHA is in the NCAAs.

aparch
03-16-2012, 12:21 AM
One scenario I found: If Union beats Harvard in the ECAC championship, Colgate beats Cornell in the consolation, and Bowling Green and Providence do not win their tournaments (they can win one game), Northern Michigan is in. Add in one Western Michigan win in the semifinals or consolation and half the CCHA is in the NCAAs.

Here's a wrinkle:

Good observation. Since I'm breaking ties by RPI, I can't guarantee that #13 doesn't actually mean 3-way tie for 13 but winning an RPI tie-breaker, such that the assumption that 13 is safe is untrue (because the real tie-breaker would result in 14 or 15). I've thought for a few years that it was generally agreed that RPI broke all ties, but that's been challenged more than ever this year, to the point that I have been pondering how to deal with it, but it's certainly going to be much more complex than just breaking ties by RPI and ranking, which is why you don't see it yet.
Just a reminder, the Pairwise is a predictor of the system used by the NCAA to set their tournament field. They purposely have left some ambiguity in their system (even if they DO use the Pairwise exactly like these sites calculate).

LSSULaker889294
03-16-2012, 11:59 PM
Now what are NMU's chances of making the NCAA tournament?

aparch
03-17-2012, 12:10 AM
Now what are NMU's chances of making the NCAA tournament?

We can't get 13th.

Of the 288 potential outcomes:
14 9.0%
15 32.6%
16 57.6%
17 0.7%
Tournament invites: 73 (25.3%)

Per Blog.SiouxSports.com

NMU8405
03-17-2012, 09:31 AM
We NEED Colgate to beat Cornell. Even if Cornell does win, there are some scenarios I played around with that got NMU in

klbaum1077
03-17-2012, 06:04 PM
We NEED Colgate to beat Cornell. Even if Cornell does win, there are some scenarios I played around with that got NMU in

The only way i can figure you guys get in with a Cornell win is if Rit beats Air Force and Western beats michigan.

Hatch_man
03-17-2012, 07:04 PM
Fire up the offseason thread... Fire up the offseason thread.... Fire up the offseason thread....

aygwm2
03-17-2012, 07:11 PM
NMU fans are rooting for UoM tonight, right? (Don't think I can do that, but if it gets the guys in I'll do it. I'd really like to see the Broncos win....) That's the only chance we have now, for UoM to beat WMU? Or, are we out no matter what now that Cornell won?

aparch
03-17-2012, 08:14 PM
NMU fans are rooting for UoM tonight, right? (Don't think I can do that, but if it gets the guys in I'll do it. I'd really like to see the Broncos win....) That's the only chance we have now, for UoM to beat WMU? Or, are we out no matter what now that Cornell won?
Latest discussion has it that if WMU wins, RIT wins, and Union wins, we're in (or at least own the potential tie breaking scenarios).

As of 15 minutes ago, WMU is winning, RIT is losing, and Union is scoreless with Harvard.