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Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 10:46 AM
As some of you may or may not know, I have a formula which I used a few years ago to rank the championship teams of All-time ('93 Maine came out on top). I then used that same formula to rank the best teams to not win the championship ('98 Michigan State came out on top). I have now used that same formula to rank the NCAA Field. These rankings will obviously change by the end of the year depending on who ultimately prevails, but I thought I would post what I came up with before the NCAA Tournament Starts...

1. North Dakota - 166.632 points
2. Boston College - 147.844 points
3. Miami - 118.266 points
4. Michigan - 106.65 points
5. Yale - 104.311 points
6. Union - 89.704 points
7. Merrimack - 73.588 points
8. Denver - 72.868 points
9. Notre Dame - 68.781 points
10. New Hampshire - 59.973 points
11. Minnesota Duluth - 50.469 points
12. Nebraska Omaha - 48.383 points
13. Air Force - 39.982 points
14. Colorado College - 38.754 points
15. Western Michigan - 34.958 points
16. Rensselaer - 31.546 points

If you look at add up points by regional you get...

East Regional: 284.466
Midwest Regional: 306.004
West Regional: 341.631
Northeast Regional: 320.608

As expected, the "Region of Death" is the most difficult.

My formula looks at a variety of different aspects, including success/failure in conference play, non-conference play, and overall play, strength of schedule (largely against other NCAA Tournament Teams), and goal differential by game (ie. beating Tech by 10 is worth less than beating Denver by any amount). Since it looks at record/goal differential against NCAA Tournament Teams, it is only able to rank teams after the NCAA Tournament field is announced.

If you would like, I can plug in your team that did not make the tournament and give you their point ranking. Keep in mind, it is very possible to have a negative point ranking if you did not perform very well.

alnike
03-24-2011, 10:50 AM
Hey FS 23, if you have access to your older reports, where did the 96-97 Michigan team rank relative to the 97-98 Michigan State team?

FlagDUDE08
03-24-2011, 10:51 AM
As some of you may or may not know, I have a formula which I used a few years ago to rank the championship teams of All-time ('93 Maine came out on top). I then used that same formula to rank the best teams to not win the championship ('98 Michigan State came out on top). I have now used that same formula to rank the NCAA Field. These rankings will obviously change by the end of the year depending on who ultimately prevails, but I thought I would post what I came up with before the NCAA Tournament Starts...

1. North Dakota - 166.632 points
2. Boston College - 147.844 points
3. Miami - 118.266 points
4. Michigan - 106.65 points
5. Yale - 104.311 points
6. Union - 89.704 points
7. Merrimack - 73.588 points
8. Denver - 72.868 points
9. Notre Dame - 68.781 points
10. New Hampshire - 59.973 points
11. Minnesota Duluth - 50.469 points
12. Nebraska Omaha - 48.383 points
13. Air Force - 39.982 points
14. Colorado College - 38.754 points
15. Western Michigan - 34.958 points
16. Rensselaer - 31.546 points

If you look at add up points by regional you get...

East Regional: 284.466
Midwest Regional: 306.004
West Regional: 341.631
Northeast Regional: 320.608

As expected, the "Region of Death" is the most difficult.

My formula looks at a variety of different aspects, including success/failure in conference play, non-conference play, and overall play, strength of schedule (largely against other NCAA Tournament Teams), and goal differential by game (ie. beating Tech by 10 is worth less than beating Denver by any amount). Since it looks at record/goal differential against NCAA Tournament Teams, it is only able to rank teams after the NCAA Tournament field is announced.

If you would like, I can plug in your team that did not make the tournament and give you their point ranking. Keep in mind, it is very possible to have a negative point ranking if you did not perform very well.

How is Union not #26? :D

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 10:51 AM
Hey FS 23, if you have access to your older reports, where did the 96-97 Michigan team rank relative to the 97-98 Michigan State team?

'97-'98 Michigan State - 211.557 points
'96-'97 Michigan - 169.458 points

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 10:52 AM
How is Union not #26? :D

They are #26 :p:D:D

dave29
03-24-2011, 10:55 AM
How is Air Force 13th? Oh, right. Weak AHA. :D;)

dave29
03-24-2011, 10:56 AM
'97-'98 Michigan State - 211.557 points
'96-'97 Michigan - 169.458 points

FS23, can you do 95-96, 98-99 and 02-03 for CC?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 10:58 AM
How is Air Force 13th? Oh, right. Weak AHA. :D;)

I do have a conference strength component in the formula that applies to the points earned for conference play. However, that component isn't figured out until after the NCAA Tournament.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 11:02 AM
FS23, can you do 95-96, 98-99 and 02-03 for CC?

Here are the CC teams that I already had...

'04-'05 - 187.337
'02-'03 - 178.641
'95-'96 - 144.136
'56-'57 - 133.323*
'49-'50 - 59.92*

*When I originally ranked teams, I split them into eras. The First Era was pre-conference, which the '49-'50 team fell into. The second was from early 50's through about 1981, which the '57 team fell into. Basically, those teams didn't have the chance to play as many NCAA Tournament teams because there were only 4 (sometimes 5) teams that made the tournament. Therefore, those point values should be looked at compared to their eras as opposed to the more modern eras.

EDIT: If you would really like, I can take some time next week and figure out the '98-'99 team's point ranking.

jamie9248922
03-24-2011, 11:11 AM
Can you compare the current BC team with the '08 and '10 Champions?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 11:16 AM
Can you compare the current BC team with the '08 and '10 Champions?

Sure.

'10-'11 - 147.844
'09-'10 - 116.67
'07-'08 - 82.97

And also, just for the curious...

'00-'01 - 192.217
Of the Boston College teams that I have ranked, this is their best team.

dave29
03-24-2011, 11:18 AM
Here are the CC teams that I already had...

'04-'05 - 187.337
'02-'03 - 178.641
'95-'96 - 144.136
'56-'57 - 133.323*
'49-'50 - 59.92*

*When I originally ranked teams, I split them into eras. The First Era was pre-conference, which the '49-'50 team fell into. The second was from early 50's through about 1981, which the '57 team fell into. Basically, those teams didn't have the chance to play as many NCAA Tournament teams because there were only 4 (sometimes 5) teams that made the tournament. Therefore, those point values should be looked at compared to their eras as opposed to the more modern eras.

EDIT: If you would really like, I can take some time next week and figure out the '98-'99 team's point ranking.

Cool. Thanks!

FlagDUDE08
03-24-2011, 11:28 AM
They are #26 :p:D:D

Well played. :)

hockeyenthusiast
03-24-2011, 11:28 AM
Sure.

'10-'11 - 147.844
'09-'10 - 116.67
'07-'08 - 82.97

And also, just for the curious...

'00-'01 - 192.217
Of the Boston College teams that I have ranked, this is their best team.

So would it be safe to assume that if BC doesn't win it all this year that it may be simply because the field was stronger this year? Or is there a way to compare the overall strength of the 09-10 field with the 10-11?

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 11:36 AM
So would it be safe to assume that if BC doesn't win it all this year that it may be simply because the field was stronger this year? Or is there a way to compare the overall strength of the 09-10 field with the 10-11?

I would agree that last year's field was not quite as good as this year's field. The other top teams last year were Denver and Miami. Denver was ranked with 116.477 points, while Miami was a little stronger with 149.293 points. North Dakota ranked in at 70.292 points last year. This year we already have 5 teams over 100 points, and 8 above the 70 point marker, and the tournament hasn't even finished. Last year at this time, BC wasn't even over 100 points, only Denver, Wisconsin (135.4468) and Miami were.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-24-2011, 03:29 PM
FS23, can you do 98-99 for CC?

I had some extra time today, so I plugged them in. The '98-'99 Tigers finish at 85.554 points.

Fighting Sioux 23
03-28-2011, 12:40 PM
I thought I would update this since we are now at the Frozen Four stage. Here are the four teams left competing for the National Title...

1. North Dakota - 190.044 points
2. Michigan - 125.199 points
3. Notre Dame - 85.462 points
4. Minnesota Duluth - 68.55 points

Notes:
- North Dakota, if they win the title, will finish with 13 victories over NCAA Tournament teams this season. That would be tied for the third most amount of any team I have calculated (both '05 DU and '06 Wisconsin had 14).
- Michigan has been the most impressive in close games, going 12-3-4 in games decided by 1 goal or less. If the Wolverines win the title, and each game is decided by 1 goal, it would be the most 1-goal victories by a champion since Michigan won in '98 (The Wolverines had 17 1-goal wins that year).
- Michigan has yet to win a game by 6+ goals, and has not lost a game all season by more than 3.
- Notre Dame's 13 losses are the most by any of the teams at the Frozen Four. If they win the title, that will be the most losses by a champion since the '81 Wisconsin Badgers (14 losses), and the lowest winning percentage (.655) since the '74 Minnesota Gophers (.641).
- Minnesota Duluth's 24 wins are the fewest by any of the teams at the Frozen Four.
- If Minnesota Duluth wins the title, they will be only the third team to finish 4th or lower in their conference and not win their conference tournament but win the national title. The other two teams were '07 Michigan State and '04 Denver