Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gives?

[D2D]

I know that the WCHA has won every NCAA D1 championship, and from what I understand an Eastern team has always prevailed in D3. I am at a loss to explain why these streaks - now about 10 years running - seem to continue year after year. You would think that either the west or the east would generally prevail at both levels in some years, or perhaps it would be cyclical.

So can anyone explain why the West has dominated at D1, but the reverse is very much true in D3?

And looking ahead, which streak do you think will end first?

[OnMAA]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

I know that the WCHA has won every NCAA D1 championship, and from what I understand an Eastern team has always prevailed in D3. I am at a loss to explain why these streaks - now about 10 years running - seem to continue year after year. You would think that either the west or the east would generally prevail at both levels in some years, or perhaps it would be cyclical.

So can anyone explain why the West has dominated at D1, but the reverse is very much true in D3?

And looking ahead, which streak do you think will end first?

Dominance by the East in D3 is more pronounced than that by the West in D1. Most years the D3 final is an all Eastern affair, with 3 of the final four being from the East. In D1 the final has most often been a contest between East and West.

Maybe it is like the NFL where there were 10 years cycles of dominance (AFC then NFC). This means the East is coming


In more seriousness, I think one of the reasons is resources. Schools like Wisco and Minny are large schools with a lot of resources. Back in the 80's and 90's prior to the days of the final four, eastern schools like UNH, NorthEastern, Brown and Providence were dominant. None of those schools have the size or the resources to compete with the likes of Wisco and Minny.

[ARM]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

One of the factors is the same in both in that the D-III East and the D-I West have been able to maintain a critical mass of good teams that can play each other and improve. When a GAC runs into a Norwich, that is either the best team they've seen all year or the best team they've seen in months. OTOH, Wisconsin had already seen teams that could push the Badgers to the extent that BC and BU could.

[dave1381]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

What ARM said.

The pattern of NCAA tourney results isn't as simple as "West is always dominant." There's variation over time in how competitive the best eastern teams have been with the best western teams.

Certainly there has been some luck involved in maintaining the western streak. Harvard in 2003 and Cornell in 2010 went to multiple overtimes against UMD. It's no coincidence that these are years in which the best 3 teams in the ECAC compared favorably with the best 3 in the WCHA. Or put in other way, the closest the ECAC's been to the title are the years Mark Johnson has not been coaching Wisconsin.

On the other end, 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 are clearly the three worst seasons in the ECAC when you compare their best 3 to other conferences' best 3, and it's no coincidence in these years that the conference failed to win a tourney game out-of-conference, despite having one of the nation's top ranked team in 07-08 and 10-11.

Looking at Mercyhurst, some of their most impressive tournament performances were their first two in 04-05 and 05-06. They were able to play almost a full ECAC schedule back when the ECAC was good, plus UNH when they were good, and they were well prepared for the NCAA tournament. In more recent seasons, they simply haven't been able to put together as difficult a schedule, especially late in the year as the CHA has expanded. Mercyhurst did beat Minnesota in 09 semifinals, but was still an order of magnitude below Wisconsin in the final.

And for Hockey East, it's no coincidence that it had it's best tourney ever this year when it had two elite teams this year, and it was clearly the 2nd-best conference overall.

06-07 was easily the tournament with the closest and most unpredictable quarterfinal round (3 upsets, and the top seed taken to 4 OT). It's no coincidence that this was the year of the largest parity between all the conference, and we haven't had anything close to that since.

[dave1381]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

As for which streak will end first, I don't know enough about the D3 history to comment, but I don't forsee the WCHA streak ending next couple years. It looks to me like the WCHA is 4 deep in teams with Olympians, while Cornell will be heavily favored in the ECAC and BU will be heavily favored in Hockey East. That's not a good sign for the eastern teams. I could see the streak ending in 2014 or 2015, but still a lot of recruiting left to go.

[ARM]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

06-07 was easily the tournament with the closest and most unpredictable quarterfinal round (3 upsets, and the top seed taken to 4 OT). It's no coincidence that this was the year of the largest parity between all the conference, and we haven't had anything close to that since.

This was also a post-Olympic year where the players that returned with medals did so in the East.

I could see the streak ending in 2014 or 2015, but still a lot of recruiting left to go.

An Olympic year seems to be a good bet, because none of the WCHA teams were very good in 2010, in part because of the Olympics, so the West had to rely on a flashy wardrobe to secure a title.

[binnyrus]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

In more seriousness, I think one of the reasons is resources. Schools like Wisco and Minny are large schools with a lot of resources. Back in the 80's and 90's prior to the days of the final four, eastern schools like UNH, NorthEastern, Brown and Providence were dominant. None of those schools have the size or the resources to compete with the likes of Wisco and Minny.

IMO, resources have virtually nothing to do with it unless you consider coaching, history and reputation. UMD is not at all in the same league in terms of financial "resources" as UW or MN. I think ARM is right on - strong competition throughout the season. I think this has favored the WCHA year in and year out . . . on the other hand, talent has a way of winning out when you least expect it. Certainly teams in the East have the talent to win. It's building the championship state of mind and toughness of mind to break through . . . BC, Cornell . . .

[spike]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

I've stated my opinion on this subject before and will do so again here. I think one big difference is that at the D-I level, there are numerous opportunities for the top players from the Midwest to stay close to home, play top level competition, and get top level educational opportunities as well. Compare Wisco and Minny with any or all of the Eastern schools that can offer scholarships, and there is no reason academically for those girls to head east. At D-III, however, once you remove the scholarship aspect from the equation, there has been an exodus of Midwestern players flocking to schools like Amherst Middlebury, and Trinity. Western schools with similar academic reputations (such as Carleton College as an example) do not have a women's hockey program. The ability to go East and play competitive hockey while getting a "little Ivy" education results in a significant talent drain running from West to East. Imagine what might have been in recent years if girls like Komerek, Swiantkowski, McNally, Styrbicki, Bloom, Hanlon, etc. had chosen to stay west of the Mississippi. The other factor at D-III is the impact of the Canadian players. At D-III, in the absence of scholarships, many Canadian players are able to avail themselves of grant money allegedly earmarked by schools to promote diversity within the student body. Given the heavy concentration of Canadian girls' hockey in Ontario and Quebec, and given that so many Eastern schools have such international grants available, it is natural for most of this talent to head East as well.

Forgive me Obserbear, I can't believe I listed names without including Ms. Holtz from Bowdoin!

[rugrats]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

I've stated my opinion on this subject before and will do so again here. I think one big difference is that at the D-I level, there are numerous opportunities for the top players from the Midwest to stay close to home, play top level competition, and get top level educational opportunities as well. Compare Wisco and Minny with any or all of the Eastern schools that can offer scholarships, and there is no reason academically for those girls to head east. At D-III, however, once you remove the scholarship aspect from the equation, there has been an exodus of Midwestern players flocking to schools like Amherst Middlebury, and Trinity. Western schools with similar academic reputations (such as Carleton College as an example) do not have a women's hockey program. The ability to go East and play competitive hockey while getting a "little Ivy" education results in a significant talent drain running from West to East. Imagine what might have been in recent years if girls like Komerek, Swiantkowski, McNally, Styrbicki, Bloom, Hanlon, etc. had chosen to stay west of the Mississippi. The other factor at D-III is the impact of the Canadian players. At D-III, in the absence of scholarships, many Canadian players are able to avail themselves of grant money allegedly earmarked by schools to promote diversity within the student body. Given the heavy concentration of Canadian girls' hockey in Ontario and Quebec, and given that so many Eastern schools have such international grants available, it is natural for most of this talent to head East as well.

Great post spike....

[dave1381]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

I think each conference has its own recruiting niches. Does anyone think from 2000-2011 the biggest advantage for the WCHA big 3 has been the geographical advantage of recruiting talented midwest players, and that this is stronger than the edge some eastern schools have for Ontario and Quebec, or the Ivies have in attracting more academically inclined players on average? Plenty of eastern teams have had as talented rosters in some years as the best western teams, in my opinion.

If you had to pick one factor that's been the difference, I stand by the fact as I have for the last decade, that it's that the WCHA in most years has had three elite teams (now 4) who play each other 4 or 5 times per year leading up to the NCAA tournament, plus 4 brutal weekends (now 6) where they play each other twice in the same weekend. That is clearly the best prep for the Frozen Four. The ECAC and Hockey East have never, ever had that (with the lone exception of the BU-BC home-and-home in November this year). Maybe the ECAC came close to that when Harvard&Dartmouth were good while SLU&Clarkson were good and they were all travel partners. I believe that WCHA top tier competition matters more than any natural recruiting advantages or any coaching talent advantage Miller or Johnson might have in instilling a "championship state of mind" in their players. I've only become more convinced with each passing year.

EDIT: I will also add that because there are fewer WCHA schools and more eastern schools it does allow for the WCHA to have some more consistency in recruiting as there's less competition, etc. But the fact there are more eastern schools is also related to the fact that the eastern schools don't all play each other 4 times per year. If there were 8 east and 8 west programs, I don't the WCHA would be as dominant for both reasons.

[binnyrus]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

. I believe that WCHA top tier competition matters more than any natural recruiting advantages or any coaching talent advantage Miller or Johnson might have in instilling a "championship state of mind" in their players. I've only become more convinced with each passing year.

I completely agree with this! The championship state of mind I was referring to comes from playing the top notch competition back-to-back. Winning one game means nothing when you play them again the next day. If you aren't ready on day two you will get beat . . . that is what develops the mental toughness (IMO) that it takes to win a frozen four. That said, I think some coaches are better at preparing their teams, obviously Johnson and Miller have it. Whatever "it" is. The players respond to them and seem to play their best on the biggest stage.

I 100% agree though that the biggest advantage the WCHA has is the schedule they have against one another. I have been to plenty of UMD v MN games that you would think were national championship games . . . the intensity, the attitude, the desire the players exhibit. Those games UMD vs MN vs WI are important all year long . . . now start adding UND to the mix . . .

[IceIsNice]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

Worth noting..... perhaps a western team may have won yet again, but......

The co-MVP's were from Mass. and New Hamphsire (runner up from Mass. too by the way!)

Western School, led by Eastern players. Throw that in the mix!

[dave1381]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

I completely agree with this! The championship state of mind I was referring to comes from playing the top notch competition back-to-back. Winning one game means nothing when you play them again the next day. If you aren't ready on day two you will get beat . . . that is what develops the mental toughness (IMO) that it takes to win a frozen four. That said, I think some coaches are better at preparing their teams, obviously Johnson and Miller have it. Whatever "it" is. The players respond to them and seem to play their best on the biggest stage. I 100% agree though that the biggest advantage the WCHA has is the schedule they have against one another. I have been to plenty of UMD v MN games that you would think were national championship games . . . the intensity, the attitude, the desire the players exhibit. Those games UMD vs MN vs WI are important all year long . . . now start adding UND to the mix . . .

Yup, we're on the same page. I guess I'd say the quality of the coaching/recruiting determines your place within the league, and how the league standing projects to the true national rankings depends on the quality of competition at the top of the league.

[dave1381]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

Worth noting..... perhaps a western team may have won yet again, but......

The co-MVP's were from Mass. and New Hamphsire (runner up from Mass. too by the way!)

Western School, led by Eastern players. Throw that in the mix!

Yeah, it's a good point to raise. I'd considered that, but didn't mention it because it doesn't help us to distinguish between the "natural recruiting advantage" and "quality of competition" hypotheses. If teams are more successful over time for either reason, it'll erode the natural recruiting advantages as some players will want to play for the best programs.

[gojackets]

Re: Off season topic:West remains supreme in D1; East remains dominate in D3. What gi

Dominance by the East in D3 is more pronounced than that by the West in D1. Most years the D3 final is an all Eastern affair, with 3 of the final four being from the East. In D1 the final has most often been a contest between East and West.

The NCAA sets it up this way, even though the number of teams in the D3 west are increasing, there are still more teams out east. They also refuse to fly a team in the first round of the NCAA tournament, which means very rarely do 3 western teams make it in. It has to be a situation like this year, where River Falls went undefeated, but lost in the NCHA title game for it to happen. That essentially guarantees a 3-1 frozen four split, essentially because the NCAA doesn't want to have to pay to fly two teams.

I personally think the D3 west will come thru in the next year or two. There are a lot of good young players on teams like River Falls, Superior, Concordia Moorhead, and St Norbert's will be rising up strongly in the next few years. I'm betting by 2014 one of those teams will win a title.