Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

[vellnueve]

Thoughts:

1. Schaus and Stack were the two best players ever to don a BC uniform. They will be greatly missed.
2. Stack will be the hardest to replace as BC still has two starting-quality goaltenders waiting in the wings - but production like Stack's is much harder to come by. Schaus was probably the greatest player in BC history but Boyles and Kingston will both come in next fall with a good amount of experience that will only have been augmented by watching Schaus this year.
3. Restuccia, Welch, and Wasylk will be counted on heavily to help make up for Stack's loss.
4. Having a healthy Walsh all season will be great as she is very disruptive when she's on the ice.
5. Katelyn Kurth was one of the best D-men in school history and she will be missed - fortunately we have several young players who will step up in her place.
6. This past season's freshmen were all showing flashes throughout the season - I think we'll see them become more of a force next year.

[ARM]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

2. Stack will be the hardest to replace as BC still has two starting-quality goaltenders waiting in the wings - but production like Stack's is much harder to come by.

I disagree with that. Yes, you have a couple starting-quality goaltenders -- every team does. For you to get back to the Frozen Four any time soon, one of them will have to play much better than they've shown to date. Will they improve? Un-doubtedly. Will they keep you in games forever if your offense is generating not much like Schaus did routinely? Probably not with as great frequency. Truly elite goaltenders that can steal a game are not that easily found. Schaus, not Stack, is why you came as close to making a championship game as you did.

It is nice to have a player capable of putting up numbers offensively, but a team is better off getting contributions from throughout their lineup rather than waiting for a single player to carry them. A single player is much easier to shut down and frustrate.

[kylehockey]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

agree that Shaus will be harder to replace. I actually think it will be a freshman that does it in Megan Miller. Carpenter will be a good bet to replace Stack's numbers.

[dave1381]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

Schaus, not Stack, is why you came as close to making a championship game as you did.

I'll qualify this to some degree.

I agree Schaus was the difference between them being competitive against some of the elite teams and getting blown out, most obviously against Wisconsin, and to some extent the Beanpot semi vs. BU.

But against the rest of BC's schedule this year, Schaus was pretty unspectacular.

So in terms of contending for the Hockey East regular season championship and making NCAAs, I think Stack is harder to replace. In terms of going deep in the NCAAs as tied in the final minutes against the eventual national champion, Schaus is harder to replace.

Or put another way, without Schaus I think this BC team could have still won Hockey East but would've been obliterated by Wisconsin or possibly have not sustained its lead against Minnesota. Without Stack, I'm not sure this BC team even makes the tournament.

[vellnueve]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

agree that Shaus will be harder to replace. I actually think it will be a freshman that does it in Megan Miller. Carpenter will be a good bet to replace Stack's numbers.

Corinne Boyles is pretty good.

[ARM]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

But against the rest of BC's schedule this year, Schaus was pretty unspectacular.

So in terms of contending for the Hockey East regular season championship and making NCAAs, I think Stack is harder to replace.

In 2009-10, BC gave up 54 goals in the conference. In 2010-11, with Schaus playing the vast majority, they allowed 32. Unspectacular or not, a 22 goal reduction is pretty big for a team that doesn't score much. Even if only half of that improvement is Schaus, give up an extra goal a weekend in the conference and they probably don't make the tourney either, given BC played a lot of tight games. Maybe it's like asking someone if they'd rather have food or shelter -- you're going to miss either one.

[DumbStruck]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

You say tomato, I say tomato, or if you are Dan Quayle...potato/potato. Both Stack & Schaus are great players in thier own right, with each contributing BIG in thier own ways. There is strength both on the bench and in the incoming recruit class, and this will allow the team to remain competative.

I believe the hardest replacement will be the leadership that both Molly & Kelli brought to the team/program (add in Kurth's on ice persence). Both ladies brought a quiet style of performance leadership to the locker room. Team always knew Molly had thier backs and could play with confidence and take risks. Likewise, Kelli literally placed the team on her back and carried the moment when needed. Understanding team dynamics, dedication, commitment (no one worked harder in the weight room/at practice than these two), this is where I think the greatest void will be. Looking to Restuccia, Welch & others to step up.

[DumbStruck]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

"Or put another way, without Schaus I think this BC team could have still won Hockey East but would've been obliterated by Wisconsin or possibly have not sustained its lead against Minnesota. Without Stack, I'm not sure this BC team even makes the tournament.[/QUOTE]"

No way. You may wish to quote statistics, but there is no way team would have skated the way they did, took the risks they took and won the games they won without Schaus holding down the other end. You are missing the leadership/confidence intangible here. Kelli contributed in different ways. In either case, IMHO, do not believe BC wins Hockey East and attains a number 4 or 5 ranking and thus a chance to move to the NCAA's.

[zoofer]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

Schaus is the key loss, no doubt...if I'm not mistaken, the losses that BC had this year were when she and Stack were at the 4 Nations Tourney or USA camp, no? I realize that means BOTH players were out of the line-up so actually a moot point so forget it...) I agree with ARM and dave....btw, from what I hear Bobby's little girl will be **** good!

[DumbStruck]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

Final reflections on 2010/11 season.

Congrats to seniors! Look at games played, school records, individual accomplishments, etc. Kurth, Hart, Stack & Schaus were the real deal. Going to be a long time until players such as these come along again.

Juniors really stepped up big this year. Welch, Restuccia became impact players. Green, Szlocek and others more in supporting roles.

Sophomores played big with Walsh, Brown, Motherwell and Burns playing key roles and really maturing in their play. Gotta love the sophomores.

Freshmen, Wasylk, Mangene, Bizzari, Doherty...fun to watch and with another year of training/experience, solid contributers for the future.

Also, saw coaches...King & Kennedy do some real coaching and believe they are growing further into their roles.

Great future for BC Women's Hockey! But...how are you ever going to replace Schaus & Stack?

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

I'd like to refer everyone back to this post I made a few years ago. A little outdated but I'm pretty sure it still applies:

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.ph...=1#post3463139

I'd really hate to play objective mediator, but Joe is right.

Schaus had some to do with our success last year, but our offense carried us the most. The team this year is not playing up to par, and it's showing. Schaus' stats this year really are not as good in comparison with last year, and so the lack of offense is killing us.

Last year Schaus put up a stunning .931 save percentage. Borrowing a term from baseball statistical analysis and reapplying my own objective formula for D-1 Women's Hockey, her WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) is 3.5. If you took a slightly below average goaltender, say 20th in D-1, and replaced Schaus with her, BC would have 3.5 less wins.

The 20th best save % in D-1 last year was .908.

That is an extra 23 goals per 1000 shots.
BC gave up 999 shots over 36 games last year. That's an average of 27.75 shots per game.

So, using those stats, a below average goalie (in this case, defined as the 20th best in D-1) would average .63825 more goals per game.

Now, consider BC's record last year, 24-10-2, and change OT wins to ties for the purposes of this argument (since an extra goal in regulation would have netted BC a loss rather than an OT win).

This gives BC a record of 22-10-4.

Considering that in 63.825% of these ties, BC would have lost due to the other team scoring a goal. Rounding, this would change 3 of BC's ties to losses. We now have a record of 22-13-1.

Now consider BC's 1 goal regulation wins, of which there were 3. 63.825% of these wins, or, rounding, 2 of them, would now be ties. This gives BC a final 06-07 record of 20-13-3.

Schaus' WARP last year (with a win being defined as 2 points) was 3.5, or 7 points. Schaus was worth 3.5 wins last year over a below average goaltender. Considering how close the 7-8-9 teams were last year, I'm sure this would have been enough to knock us out of the top 8 into 9th, but you really could say the same about any number of players from our top 2 offensive lines. Without one of them, we don't make NCAAs. So to answer your question freak, Schaus alone did not get BC into the NCAAs last year.

---

Moving on to discussion of this year's stats, Schaus isn't doing nearly as well as she did last year, but she is still holding her own with an above average save % of .913.

The 20th best save % this year would be a .907 save %. This is an extra 6 goals per 1000 shots.
BC has given up 391 shots over 15 games, for an average of 26.0667 shots per game.

Using these stats, a below average goalie would average only .1564 more goals per game.

Now consider BC's record this year, 7-5-3, and switch all OT victories to ties.

This leaves us with a record of 6-5-4.

Considering that in 15.64% of these ties, BC would have lost due to the other team scoring a goal. Rounding, this would change 1 of BC's ties to a loss. We now have a record of 6-6-3.

Now consider BC's 1 goal regulation wins, of which there has been 1. 15.64% of this win, or, rounding, 0 of them, would now be ties. This gives BC a modified 07-08 record of 6-6-3.


Schaus' current WARP this year is 1, or 2 points. BC would have one less win this year if Schaus was replaced by a below average replacement goaltender. Multiplying this by 2.2667 (this is the inverse of .441, since we have gone 44.1% through the season), and Schaus' season long WARP would be 2.2667. A below average replacement player would cost BC just over 2 wins this year.

Schaus WARP 06-07: 3.5
Schaus WARP 07-08: 2.3

What do all of these stats mean?

1) Yes, Schaus helps our team. But she is not the sole key to our success. She isn't this year and she wasn't last year. Obviously she helps, in the same way that having a good goalie helps any of the top teams.

2) Perhaps much more importantly, you have to note that last year's team scored so much more points that, even though Schaus played that much better, it didn't matter as much because our victories were almost always by more than one goal, which would make a below average replacement goalie moot.

To sum, Joe is right. The team's offense last year was the biggest key. More one goal wins or ties last year, and we struggle MIGHTILY with a worse goalie. However, that wasn't that case because our offense existed - in force.

This year, our offense is sorely lacking, and it's showing. Schaus isn't quite what she was last year, but since the offense isn't clicking it's making former blowout games into ties and one goal wins, which is what would make all the difference if Schaus were replaced. Not to mention a hell of a large percentage of ties and losses that would now be wins. I'd do a long post about what our record would be last year with this year's goal scoring, and this year with last year's goal scoring, but it doesn't take much to see that nearly 1.5 more goals per game scored this year (we scored 3.97 GPG last year and are scoring 2.53 GPG this year) would make all the difference. Much more so than Schaus being replaced with someone of a .006 difference in save percentage would.

I'd also like to add that I think Ellison and Rothschild would be better than 20th in D-1 out of the 32 that qualify to be ranked, so this would make Schaus' higher skill even less valuable since the difference in skill wouldn't be as high.

UPDATE: I just looked it up. Last year, Ellison's save % was .925. Exactly .006 less than Schaus' .931 last year, and a whole lot better than Schaus this year. This year Ellison has a .926 save percentage with Minn-Duluth.

The nice thing about save % is that it measures just the goalie's performance and does not factor in the quality of the team's defense. Which is why GAA is a stupid, stupid way to measure goalie performance.

[Bumbles]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

BC will be fine next year. Yes, it will be difficult to replace Schaus on net but the tandem of Miller and Boyles will be more than enough.

As for replacing Stack, look to Alex Carpenter. She is a beast and my preseason pick for HE Rookie of the Year.

[scrambledlegs]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

I'd like to refer everyone back to this post I made a few years ago. A little outdated but I'm pretty sure it still applies:

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.ph...=1#post3463139

For arguments sake, I am going to poke a few holes in your analysis.

First off, you can't compare Schaus to the 20th place goalie. Schaus is different than other goalies in that she was the goalie game in and game out, while the 20th place goalie probably only played a third to a half of the games that she did. The 20th place goalie is probably only being put up against teams that the coach thinks she can beat so her save percentage may seem similar but in fact it is not.

Unlike Schaus who has to face any and all teams and the save percentage is reflected in this work-load. If you look at the stats of any single goalies, I think you will see similar stats - although the unfamiliarity of Freshman year does give them a slight stat advantage.

Maybe if you look at this year's record and last year's record, it may better illustrate what a huge loss Schaus will be. This year, Boston College scored 106 goals and had 64 goals against (Schaus was 48 GAA in 33 games) for a record of 24-7-6.

Last year with Stack and Schaus gone, they scored 64 goals and had 100 goals against with a record of 8-17-10. Even if you had scored 106 goals last year, with 100 goals against, you would not have had significantly more wins.

The problem is, Molly made what she did look easy and people probably underestimated her to some degree. But you will see. A great goaltender is much harder to replace than a goal scorer.

Also, I completely disagree with the last sentence. The team's defense definately has an impact on the save percentage. If the defense is good, then the goalies are only seeing the hardest shots to stop. Likewise, if they aren't doing their job, then the volume of shots is much higher.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

I'm not ignoring you scrambledlegs, it's just late and I want to post something before I forget it:

This might just top the list of most bizarre coincidences I've ever heard of:

My mom lives in an apartment in a multi-family house just off of Wesleyan's campus. From what I gather, she got into a conversation with some new girl who moved in, they got to talking, and - I have no idea how they got to this point in the conversation - somehow they found out that the new girl knows who I am, and is in fact Lucy Schoedel of UNH and Syracuse fame.

How she remembers that we used to heckle her, and how I came up in the conversation, I have absolutely no idea whatsoever. Clearly my mom MUST have brought up that I follow women's hockey... but what a strange conversation that must have been!

[joegrav]

Re: Life After Stack: The BC Offseason Thread 2011

I'll qualify this to some degree.

I agree Schaus was the difference between them being competitive against some of the elite teams and getting blown out, most obviously against Wisconsin, and to some extent the Beanpot semi vs. BU.

But against the rest of BC's schedule this year, Schaus was pretty unspectacular.

So in terms of contending for the Hockey East regular season championship and making NCAAs, I think Stack is harder to replace. In terms of going deep in the NCAAs as tied in the final minutes against the eventual national champion, Schaus is harder to replace.

Or put another way, without Schaus I think this BC team could have still won Hockey East but would've been obliterated by Wisconsin or possibly have not sustained its lead against Minnesota. Without Stack, I'm not sure this BC team even makes the tournament.

Well put. This is basically my opinion as well.

Much like 2009-10, however, the "which loss hurts more" debate is kind of irrelevant, because they're going to miss both... a lot.

Everything I hear about this Carpenter kid indicates that she is the real deal. If that's the case, it might be the goaltending we're most looking to replace. Boyles and Kingston have been good when they've played, but it remains to be seen if either has the ability to be a stand-on-your-head, steal-the-game kind of goalie.