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goblue78
03-20-2011, 04:13 PM
For all KRACH believers out there, this spreadsheet (http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5755704/Krach%20Probs.xlsx) calculates the KRACH-based probabilities of victory for each round for each team. It only assumes that the season's KRACH accurately represents the skill of the teams and does not dynamically update KRACH as the tournament progresses.

For those who just want the results, here's the bottom line:
School KRACH Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Yale 370 0.8047 0.4771 0.2824 0.1422
Air Force 89.77 0.1952 0.0510 0.0133 0.0027
Union 228.2 0.4516 0.2019 0.0954 0.0370
UMD 277.1 0.5483 0.2698 0.1406 0.0610
Mrrimk 249.3 0.5111 0.2496 0.1155 0.0472
Ntre Dm 238.4 0.4888 0.2332 0.1054 0.042
UNH 212.9 0.4135 0.1927 0.0818 0.0305
Miami 301.9 0.5864 0.3243 0.1652 0.0750
NoDak 516.8 0.7890 0.5242 0.3234 0.2090
RPI 138.2 0.2100 0.0740 0.0227 0.0075
W Mich 186.1 0.3725 0.1229 0.0457 0.0183
Denver 313.4 0.6274 0.2787 0.1385 0.0730
Michigan 296.6 0.5780 0.2680 0.1213 0.0623
UNO 216.5 0.4219 0.1643 0.0624 0.0272
BC 440.9 0.6928 0.4354 0.2382 0.1452
CC 195.5 0.3071 0.1320 0.0471 0.0194

Sorry about the formatting. I know a lot of math and very little HTML. Get the spreadsheet if you're really interested....

Priceless
03-20-2011, 05:01 PM
School KRACH Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Yale 370 0.8047 0.4771 0.2824 0.1422
AFA 89.77 0.1952 0.0510 0.0133 0.0027
Union 228.2 0.4516 0.2019 0.0954 0.0370
UMD 277.1 0.5483 0.2698 0.1406 0.0610
Mrrimk 249.3 0.5111 0.2496 0.1155 0.0472
Ntre Dm 238.4 0.4888 0.2332 0.1054 0.042
UNH 212.9 0.4135 0.1927 0.0818 0.0305
Miami 301.9 0.5864 0.3243 0.1652 0.0750
NoDak 516.8 0.7890 0.5242 0.3234 0.2090
RPI 138.2 0.2100 0.0740 0.0227 0.0075
W Mich 186.1 0.3725 0.1229 0.0457 0.0183
Denver 313.4 0.6274 0.2787 0.1385 0.0730
Mich 296.6 0.5780 0.2680 0.1213 0.0623
UNO 216.5 0.4219 0.1643 0.0624 0.0272
BC 440.9 0.6928 0.4354 0.2382 0.1452
CC 195.5 0.3071 0.1320 0.0471 0.0194

goblue78
03-20-2011, 06:35 PM
Thanks. Anyway,some interesting results, If you think that an above average probability is anything above 1/16, then 5 teams have above average probabilities of winning: NoDak, BC, Yale, Miami and Denver, in that order. Defining the group of death as the one with the largest joint probability, the NoDak region is 30.5 percent, followed by BC's region at 25.4%, then Yale's at 24.3 percent. The least likely region to produce the ultimate winner is Miami's, at 19.5 percent.