RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Just finished my program. I estimate it will take a day or two to compute all the possibilities, but I'm running the likeliest outcomes (based on KRACH probabilities) first. Hopefully I'll have a data dump tomorrow to analyze, but so far things look quite promising for RPI.

Maybe I should wait until you are done, but I am happy to know that RPI still produces people who do this sort of thing.

Are you weighting each scenario by the KRACH probability of that scenario happening or are you assuming all of the possibilities are equally likely? (One could complicate this [and change the results very little] by recalculating the KRACH probabilities including the already-completed games at any time over the weekend.)

[realet]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Just finished my program. I estimate it will take a day or two to compute all the possibilities, but I'm running the likeliest outcomes (based on KRACH probabilities) first. Hopefully I'll have a data dump tomorrow to analyze, but so far things look quite promising for RPI.

Fantastic! I knew someone out there would have the ability and wherewithal to undertake a project like this.

I don't want to be presumptuous or anything, but I know a pretty easy error would be to forget the possibility of ties in the CCHA and ECAC consolation games. Those included?

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Favorite according to who? Anyone issuing a declarative statement about who is or isn't a "favorite" - at least as far as the ECAC tourney is concerned - needs to have their head examined. This thing is a raging dumpster fire and someone just threw some old tires on it ....

Perhaps it should have read-all the higher ranked teams winning.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Maybe I should wait until you are done, but I am happy to know that RPI still produces people who do this sort of thing.

Maybe he was produced a long time ago? His screen name may indicate he is 92 which would make him the class of 1940

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Maybe he was produced a long time ago? His screen name may indicate he is 92 which would make him the class of 1940

I was quoting RHamilton who I think is currently a junior.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

There are a lot of colleges and a lot of universities that play div I hockey. But there's only one POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE.

There is of course the Polytechnic Institute of NY University (the old Brooklyn Polytechnic Institute) and as far as I know their hockey team has never lost a game.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I was quoting RHamilton who I think is currently a junior.

I had missed that-thought you were quoting RPI92.

[manurespreader]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Despite the fact that Colgate is playing real well, it's hard to bet against Yale.

In the scenario's I ran, RPI was solidly in unless CC won out, which I seriously doubt. North Dakota imho is playing the best hockey in D1 right now. All the regionals will be tough but if you are 12 or better it certainly helps.

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Despite the fact that Colgate is playing real well, it's hard to bet against Yale.

In the scenario's I ran, RPI was solidly in unless CC won out, which I seriously doubt. North Dakota imho is playing the best hockey in D1 right now. All the regionals will be tough but if you are 12 or better it certainly helps.

I do not intend to be rude, but it's not difficult to look good against Michigan Tech.

I don't want to be presumptuous or anything, but I know a pretty easy error would be to forget the possibility of ties in the CCHA and ECAC consolation games. Those included?

I was just about to make this same point. If I remember correctly from the ECAC Home Stretch thread, the tie rate in all games this season has been approximately 13%.

[knsmith]

Using KRACH, I get a 20% probability that Cornell loses twice, and a 11% probability that Dartmouth loses twice. Those are pretty good unless at the same time, the result is that Cornell or Colgate wins the ECAC and claims one of the NCAA bids. Adjusting for that I'm seeing a net 25% chance that a Cornell or Dartmouth meltdown alone sends RPI to the tournament. But another strong combination is if Cornell beats Dartmouth, then loses to Yale (29%), there aren't many ways to beat that scenario.

If WM loses twice, that's a pretty certain ticket (38% chance).

It's looks tough to miss if UAA beats CC (47%).

Just from an hour of playing around, those look to me like the most important determinants. I confess that I did not look for any weird domino effects nor did I look at a Northeastern or UAA title run but they don't seem very likely. All that aside, the KRACH odds of at least ONE of those good things coming to pass and sending RPI to the NCAA is... 86%.

Check my math. Please carry forward all errors and give partial credit.

What is the TV schedule for the most important games for RPI?

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

What is the TV schedule for the most important games for RPI?

http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/1...hedules_tv.htm

Use collegehockeystats.net to determine which game is being played when.

[knsmith]

http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/1...hedules_tv.htm

Use collegehockeystats.net to determine which game is being played when.

Thanks. I see that the WCHA Thursday game is on Fox College Sports Central at 8pm.

[redhead18]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

HF article on CBJ's collegiate prospect pool

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...prospect_pool/

Allen York, G, 21
Acquired: 6th round, 158th overall, 2007

An important part of R.P.I's success last season, York has not only continued his individual success, but has bettered it, becoming a standout goaltender at the collegiate level. Through 33 games, he has posted a record of 18-10-4, with a 2.05 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. He has recently been named a finalist for the Ken Dryden award, annually presented to the ECAC's top goaltender. Since his freshman season, York has vastly improved his numbers in the following season, leaving it reasonable to suggest that the Alberta native could likely forego his senior season and accept a pro contract in the offseason, if one is indeed offered.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

HF article on CBJ's collegiate prospect pool

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...prospect_pool/

I don't like that last sentence at all.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

HF article on CBJ's collegiate prospect pool

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...prospect_pool/

Hopefully York will follow the trend that NCAA goalies have had in the past-turning pro later in their careers especially after seeing how Pirri and D'Amigo have fared so far.