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RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

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  • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

    So since it's a good chance RPI will be in, do you all have any druthers as to who you play in the first round? How about Union?
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    • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

      Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
      So since it's a good chance RPI will be in, do you all have any druthers as to who you play in the first round? How about Union?
      No conference matchups in the first round...
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      • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

        Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
        So since it's a good chance RPI will be in, do you all have any druthers as to who you play in the first round?
        Whomever we get placed against.
        /lazy man's response
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        • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

          Originally posted by DrDemento View Post
          ... I like the fact that if all the favorites win-we still have the chance to get in...
          Favorite according to who? Anyone issuing a declarative statement about who is or isn't a "favorite" - at least as far as the ECAC tourney is concerned - needs to have their head examined. This thing is a raging dumpster fire and someone just threw some old tires on it ....
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          • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

            Originally posted by Wicked Slappaahs View Post
            Favorite according to who?
            According to seeds.

            Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
            I know... I'm surprised none of the sites calculate all of the permutations and then gives a percentage from there.
            If someone wants to create a program to do this, WaP will gladly run the results and give the author 100% credit.
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            • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

              We're real lucky that the Last-10-Games factor was removed a few years ago. If we do sneak in, it wouldn't surprise me if the committee would reconsider using it for future years.
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              • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                We've improved from #20 to #18 in the USCHO poll. We must have looked good in practice.
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                • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                  Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                  We're real lucky that the Last-10-Games factor was removed a few years ago. If we do sneak in, it wouldn't surprise me if the committee would reconsider using it for future years.
                  I highly doubt it. Making the last 10 games more important than the games in October or November is extraordinarily arbitrary and it punishes teams in stronger conferences.
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                  • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                    Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                    We're real lucky that the Last-10-Games factor was removed a few years ago. If we do sneak in, it wouldn't surprise me if the committee would reconsider using it for future years.
                    I may be wrong, but wasn't it "Last 16 Games" the metric used? It's been awhile since they've used that so I could very well be wrong.
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                    • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                      Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                      I may be wrong, but wasn't it "Last 16 Games" the metric used? It's been awhile since they've used that so I could very well be wrong.
                      Yes.
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                      • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                        I visited this forum today for the first time. I am not surprised to find that RPI's chances have been thoroughly analyzed. I am still figuring that we can come up with a single, fully computed probability, (e.g. "It's 64.3%").

                        There are a lot of colleges and a lot of universities that play div I hockey. But there's only one POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE.

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                        • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                          Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                          So since it's a good chance RPI will be in, do you all have any druthers as to who you play in the first round? How about Union?
                          I'm thinking North Dakota. RPI's record this year against #1 nationally ranked teams is 1-0-0.

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                          • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                            Originally posted by realet View Post
                            Yes.
                            Maybe my answer was in Hex.
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                            • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                              Originally posted by realet View Post
                              If someone wants to create a program to do this, WaP will gladly run the results and give the author 100% credit.
                              Just finished my program. I estimate it will take a day or two to compute all the possibilities, but I'm running the likeliest outcomes (based on KRACH probabilities) first. Hopefully I'll have a data dump tomorrow to analyze, but so far things look quite promising for RPI.
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                              • Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

                                Originally posted by jmhusker View Post
                                Perhaps a better way is to use RPI's or Krach ratings to do the analysis but ... sticking with the 50/50 idea... if you were to just look at the ECAC... there would be a 50% chance that Dartmouth or Cornell loses 2 games with both scenarios working in our favor.
                                Using KRACH, I get a 20% probability that Cornell loses twice, and a 11% probability that Dartmouth loses twice. Those are pretty good unless at the same time, the result is that Cornell or Colgate wins the ECAC and claims one of the NCAA bids. Adjusting for that I'm seeing a net 25% chance that a Cornell or Dartmouth meltdown alone sends RPI to the tournament. But another strong combination is if Cornell beats Dartmouth, then loses to Yale (29%), there aren't many ways to beat that scenario.

                                If WM loses twice, that's a pretty certain ticket (38% chance).

                                It's looks tough to miss if UAA beats CC (47%).

                                Just from an hour of playing around, those look to me like the most important determinants. I confess that I did not look for any weird domino effects nor did I look at a Northeastern or UAA title run but they don't seem very likely. All that aside, the KRACH odds of at least ONE of those good things coming to pass and sending RPI to the NCAA is... 86%.

                                Check my math. Please carry forward all errors and give partial credit.
                                Last edited by RPI92; 03-15-2011, 04:31 AM.

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