PDA

View Full Version : RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 [45] 46 47 48 49 50 51

burgie12
03-18-2011, 12:12 AM
Surprisingly, my program seems to indicate that the outcome of the CC / UND game is the most important game for us tomorrow, and that we want CC to win. I was quite taken aback when it suggested that. Looking at the data a bit more, it seems that the CC comparison is a lost cause and that a UND win causes UNO to rise past us in the rankings. I sent the data off to Tom; I'm hoping he has a better idea why it would suggest this.

The 2nd most important game, according to the program, is Miami vs. Notre Dame, where we want a Miami victory. That one makes a lot more sense to me, as we still have a shot of flipping the Notre Dame comparison. 3rd most important is Merrimack vs. New Hampshire, where we want a Merrimack victory. 4th is Michigan vs. Western Michigan, where we want Michigan. The rest we're mostly indifferent toward, according to the program -- no single result has a large impact either way in the other 6 games.
I'm not entirely surprised. If CC keeps winning, our RPI keeps moving up. I'm a little surprised that it's as important as it is, but they are the only team that we've played twice that isn't playing someone else that we've also played twice. I think it's the dual nature of the Cornell / Dartmouth game that keeps that game from being as important as I expected.

Ah, I was hoping no one would catch that. I added auto-bids to the "in tournament" section using a custom case but didn't subtract them from the "out of tournament". I figured it wasn't a big deal as that section isn't as important as the "in tournament" section.
I figured that it was that or something similar. It was the UConn situation where they had three possible placements which clearly added up to 95% which drew my attention to it. I was just curious as to the methodology.

Ralph Baer
03-18-2011, 12:59 AM
Surprisingly, my program seems to indicate that the outcome of the CC / UND game is the most important game for us tomorrow, and that we want CC to win. I was quite taken aback when it suggested that. Looking at the data a bit more, it seems that the CC comparison is a lost cause and that a UND win causes UNO to rise past us in the rankings. I sent the data off to Tom; I'm hoping he has a better idea why it would suggest this.

The 2nd most important game, according to the program, is Miami vs. Notre Dame, where we want a Miami victory. That one makes a lot more sense to me, as we still have a shot of flipping the Notre Dame comparison. 3rd most important is Merrimack vs. New Hampshire, where we want a Merrimack victory. 4th is Michigan vs. Western Michigan, where we want Michigan. The rest we're mostly indifferent toward, according to the program -- no single result has a large impact either way in the other 6 games.



Ah, I was hoping no one would catch that. I added auto-bids to the "in tournament" section using a custom case but didn't subtract them from the "out of tournament". I figured it wasn't a big deal as that section isn't as important as the "in tournament" section.

CC, Miami, Merrimack, and Michigan. Got it. That first one will be tough.

engineerhockeyfan
03-18-2011, 06:38 AM
CC, Miami, Merrimack, and Michigan. Got it. That first one will be tough.

Nobody was unbeatable this year. All of those teams have a real chance to win. I am sure that they all won't win, but it would not surprise me if 3 out of 4 win their games.

engineerhockeyfan
03-18-2011, 06:42 AM
USCHO shows the Yale/Colgate game starting at 4 PM. The TV schedule shows the game starting at 4:30PM. Does anyone know if CBS C is showing this on tape delay? :rolleyes:

vicb
03-18-2011, 06:51 AM
Less than 12 hours to get your picks into the ECAC Pick The Playoffs before the puck drops in game 1. Stragglers are:

95virago
BigRedBrouhaha
bothman
Brett Gobe
Brian Sullivan
cnor79
cudmud
Dutchfan
hockeyplayer1015
jmhusker
johnk
Maine-iac
number 16
NYHockeyguy
Onion Man
Puckie14
redrocker
REDRocket
Rhamilton
rockandrock44
RPIHFH
rvd5star69
StayPuftMMcu
TchrBill
Union93
uniondutch21
UnionPuckLove
UnionTDX04
bcarlisle
unhpuckfan2001

realet
03-18-2011, 06:55 AM
I'm not entirely surprised. If CC keeps winning, our RPI keeps moving up.

Bingo - and this speaks directly to the Maine comparison. They're also not a potential upset anymore, and we don't need to worry about catching them. They can fire at will.

WaP update mid-morning with the new Engineer Cheering Section, though most of you have got it figured out.

DrDemento
03-18-2011, 07:17 AM
"An assistant captain from Edina, Minn., Polacek is just the third player in the leagueís 50-year history to earn the Player of the Year Award twice. Rensselaerís Bob Brinkworth won the award following the 1962-63 and 1963-64 seasons and Harvardís Scott Fusco was recognized after the 1984-85 and 1985-86 campaigns."

And if they gave the award to the right person in 1985, we would have the only two. :D

No question the 1985 was a rip off. I have always felt when it came to league and national awards we often got shorted.

jmhusker
03-18-2011, 07:23 AM
Surprisingly, my program seems to indicate that the outcome of the CC / UND game is the most important game for us tomorrow, and that we want CC to win. I was quite taken aback when it suggested that. Looking at the data a bit more, it seems that the CC comparison is a lost cause and that a UND win causes UNO to rise past us in the rankings. I sent the data off to Tom; I'm hoping he has a better idea why it would suggest this.
Not too big a surprise. If CC beats NDAK then we flip our PWR with Maine who played NDAK twice. We should be cheering for CC the rest of the way.

FlagDUDE08
03-18-2011, 08:32 AM
Funny tweeting from WaP (at least from their simulcast of it)... also, nice compliment to RHam in a Times Union blog: http://blog.timesunion.com/mcguire/really-smart-student-rpi-has-81-3656-chance-of-making-ncaas/11220/

The odds are now down to 2 out of 3, but there's still a chance. Hopefully some things will go right for us tonight.

EDIT: Add some love from an actual article in the paper: http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/RPI-in-NCAAs-Math-says-yes-1181941.php

AspyDad
03-18-2011, 08:43 AM
Congratulations to Chase, he certainly deserves both honors. Now lets get him to an NCAA tournament game so he can show the nation what he's got.

Congrats to Chase. What an honor to watch this guy play the last four years. One of the best to play for the Cherry and White. Of course all of us would love to see him play in the tourney to end his great career. If we make it and get back to mid season form we can do some damage. If Allen who played great all year plays like he did against BU and US junior team and steals us a couple of games we could be in great shape. Getting scoring besides Chase was hard and if we make it, Bailen will have to pinch more and join the rush IMO. Iím hoping maybe he would get paired with a stay at home guy like Pat Koudys who can stay home and allow Nick to do his thing. Even as we move forward into next year I think these guys would be great together. I was really impressed by how Pat was a shut down guy at such a young age.

IMO
03-18-2011, 09:10 AM
Funny tweeting from WaP (at least from their simulcast of it)... also, nice compliment to RHam in a Times Union blog: http://blog.timesunion.com/mcguire/really-smart-student-rpi-has-81-3656-chance-of-making-ncaas/11220/

The odds are now down to 2 out of 3, but there's still a chance. Hopefully some things will go right for us tonight.

EDIT: Add some love from an actual article in the paper: http://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/RPI-in-NCAAs-Math-says-yes-1181941.php


Nice article. Thanks to RHamilton for keeping RPI's hope alive. Go Red! (or I should say-Go CC/MIAMI/MERRIMACK/MICHIGAN!)

realet
03-18-2011, 09:30 AM
Here's the WaP update.

Two down, 17 to go (http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/two-down-17-to-go.html)

RHamilton
03-18-2011, 09:55 AM
For anyone really excited by numbers (like me!), here's the data behind the cheering section. Each page below has the designated team winning their semi-final, and all other games are run separately. We're down to just 147456 permutations for each of the following, so the reports are getting a lot quicker to run. Only about a minute for each of these reports (reusing all the generated PWR/RPI data with new KRACH ratings and specified outcomes in certain games).

Baseline: 68.5010%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/default.html

Holy Cross - RPI at 66.7884%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/holycross.html
AirForce - RPI at 69.5914%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/airforce.html

Connecticut - RPI at 67.2328%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/connecticut.html
RIT - RPI at 69.1297%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/rit.html

Miami - RPI at 79.8650%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/miami.html
Notre Dame - RPI at 56.4001%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/notredame.html

Western Michigan - RPI at 63.9913%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/westernmich.html
Michigan - RPI at 71.1061%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/michigan.html

Cornell - RPI at 69.8805%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/cornell.html
Dartmouth - RPI at 67.5558%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/dartmouth.html

Colgate - RPI at 67.8593%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/colgate.html
Yale - RPI at 68.5779%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/yale.html

Merrimack - RPI at 72.5275%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/merrimack.html
New Hampshire - RPI at 64.1445%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/newhampshire.html

Northeastern - RPI at 64.3891%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/northeastern.html
Boston College - RPI at 69.4249%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bostoncollege.html

Bemidji - RPI at 65.5188%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bemidji.html
Denver - RPI at 69.8920%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/denver.html

Colorado College - RPI at 86.9379%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/coloradocollege.html
North Dakota - RPI at 60.9951%
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/northdakota.html

Later today I might start running some "what-ifs" to see if there are any combinations of 3 (or maybe 4) games that would be a lock, or near lock, for us.

engineerhockeyfan
03-18-2011, 10:11 AM
There is an awful lot going on here, but I think that the one most important thing that has to happen, is that Yale needs to win the ECAC.
If any of the other teams win, we are going to have two chances at the tournament, slim and none.
I will be watching and rooting for Yale today and hoping for all the other possibilities.
Colgate scares me the most. They came from out of nowhere to play in AC. They didn't have a win going into February. :confused::eek:

jmhusker
03-18-2011, 11:26 AM
There is an awful lot going on here, but I think that the one most important thing that has to happen, is that Yale needs to win the ECAC.
If any of the other teams win, we are going to have two chances at the tournament, slim and none.
I will be watching and rooting for Yale today and hoping for all the other possibilities.
Colgate scares me the most. They came from out of nowhere to play in AC. They didn't have a win going into February. :confused::eek:
I'm sorry to be argumentative but your entire premise is wrong. If Colgate beats Yale then we still have a 67.8% chance of getting in.

DrDemento
03-18-2011, 11:38 AM
I was sitting here computing my federal and state taxes all morning-I thought that was complicated-then I come to this thread and really see what complicated is. These 1040's are a snap compared to figuring out if we get to be the 14th or 15th seed in the Tournament. Let's Go Red-I mean let's go for all the teams we need to make it so we can Let's Go Red!

AspyDad
03-18-2011, 11:46 AM
Later today I might start running some "what-ifs" to see if there are any combinations of 3 (or maybe 4) games that would be a lock, or near lock, for us.

Dude you are the man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am officially nominating RHam for Poster of the Year award.

AspyDad
03-18-2011, 11:49 AM
Great article in the TU re:RHam. Nice to see somebody make the paper for their smarts. I only have made it when I have insulted members of the media/Paul Stewart/League Office/refs/etc.

hawthr
03-18-2011, 11:51 AM
The many posts over the last several days remind me of a little-used First Church cheer:
We like math,
we like beer.
We are the Engineers!

Reilly, you're the man.

FlagDUDE08
03-18-2011, 12:02 PM
Dude you are the man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am officially nominating RHam for Poster of the Year award.

No no no, I dude. He RHam. :D