RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

[realet]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

The #10 scenario, as sent to me by RHamilton:

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Air Force
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Holy Cross

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Western Michigan defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Western Michigan
Consolation game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Yale defeats Dartmouth

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Northeastern defeats Merrimack

WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Alaska-Anchorage defeats Colorado College
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I'm not going to do this while at work, but assuming each team has an equal chance of winning each game in which they play, what is the probability that RPI will make the tournament?

Good luck with that. Hope you have a good computer because the sample space is 524288 combinations - not including possible ties in the consolation games. Then you merely need to plug those combinations into the PWR generator.

Perhaps a better way is to use RPI's or Krach ratings to do the analysis but ... sticking with the 50/50 idea... if you were to just look at the ECAC... there would be a 50% chance that Dartmouth or Cornell loses 2 games with both scenarios working in our favor. Another way to think of it is in terms of who finishes 4th. If D or Cornell do then we are in great shape. If Yale or Colgate do then we need some help elsewhere. If Y is last we want Colgate to be first, If Colgate is last it probably doesn't matter much what the rest of the order is as Cornell stays a TUC and Dartmouth stays above us.

Shorthand: Probability = .5 + .5*all of the other scenarios (a number of which get us in also including favorites winning through in the other 3 conf).

After out late season swoon, the fact that our chances of getting in appear quite a bit better than a coin toss seems quite hard to believe. Yet there it is.

[irishfan85]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I ran a few "reasonable" outcomes and all came out with RPI at 14th or 15th in PWR.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I ran a few "reasonable" outcomes and all came out with RPI at 14th or 15th in PWR.

To allow for a couple upsets in the finals I would feel a whole lot more comfortable if we could get to 13th. This is going to be a very nervous weekend in our house and for most of the posters on our thread. I remember posting more than a week ago about whether it would be more beneficial for us to lose to Colgate than to win-but I never thought that it could work out that way.

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

The #10 scenario, as sent to me by RHamilton:

Wow. Flipped the Maine comparison by 0.0002. Congrats to RHamilton for having way too much time on his hands.

[RHamilton]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Wow. Flipped the Maine comparison by 0.0002. Congrats to RHamilton for having way too much time on his hands.

And Notre Dame takes a comparison away from UNH by .0001. I was stuck for a while, then I switched the AHA semi to Holy Cross over Air Force and it all fell in to place.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

To allow for a couple upsets in the finals I would feel a whole lot more comfortable if we could get to 13th. This is going to be a very nervous weekend in our house and for most of the posters on our thread. I remember posting more than a week ago about whether it would be more beneficial for us to lose to Colgate than to win-but I never thought that it could work out that way.

I think, with the exception those that are convinced a smoke-filled room is used and that RPI doesn't have a prayer of going to the tournament simply because they lost in the first round of the league playoffs, all RPI fans will be watching the scoreboards nervously.

[realet]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Here's the WaP analysis. Have at it.

http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/...y-week-10.html

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Good luck with that. Hope you have a good computer because the sample space is 524288 combinations - not including possible ties in the consolation games. Then you merely need to plug those combinations into the PWR generator.

Perhaps a better way is to use RPI's or Krach ratings to do the analysis but ... sticking with the 50/50 idea... if you were to just look at the ECAC... there would be a 50% chance that Dartmouth or Cornell loses 2 games with both scenarios working in our favor. Another way to think of it is in terms of who finishes 4th. If D or Cornell do then we are in great shape. If Yale or Colgate do then we need some help elsewhere. If Y is last we want Colgate to be first, If Colgate is last it probably doesn't matter much what the rest of the order is as Cornell stays a TUC and Dartmouth stays above us.

Shorthand: Probability = .5 + .5*all of the other scenarios (a number of which get us in also including favorites winning through in the other 3 conf).

After out late season swoon, the fact that our chances of getting in appear quite a bit better than a coin toss seems quite hard to believe. Yet there it is.

I know... I'm surprised none of the sites calculate all of the permutations and then gives a percentage from there.

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Here's the WaP analysis. Have at it.

http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/...y-week-10.html

Great summary. I am still fuzzy on the Cornell Dartmouth game and would love to make it so they both lose that game. I like the fact that if all the favorites win-we still have the chance to get in. It would be exceptionally nice to get as high as a 12th seed to avoid playing a number 1 seed in the first round-but honestly I could care less. Just squeaking in would be a great feeling. After the 4 years our seniors have had i Troy-I think it would be a wonderful gift to them to be included in an NCAA Tournament field and would certainly appreciate seeing Chase get at least one NCAA tournament goal to his credit.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Great summary. I am still fuzzy on the Cornell Dartmouth game and would love to make it so they both lose that game. I like the fact that if all the favorites win-we still have the chance to get in. It would be exceptionally nice to get as high as a 12th seed to avoid playing a number 1 seed in the first round-but honestly I could care less. Just squeaking in would be a great feeling. After the 4 years our seniors have had i Troy-I think it would be a wonderful gift to them to be included in an NCAA Tournament field and would certainly appreciate seeing Chase get at least one NCAA tournament goal to his credit.

Not the mention the potentially unique scenario of giving Chase his first and last NCAA games at home. We still have three very difficult steps before that, of course.

As for Cornell / Dartmouth, I wonder if there will be a figure skating exposé the day before and they'll have problems with the paint on the ice...

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I think it would be a wonderful gift to them to be included in an NCAA Tournament field and would certainly appreciate seeing Chase get at least one NCAA tournament goal to his credit.

Personally, I want the boys in the tournament so that Chase can tie / break the NCAA record for GWGs in a season. Yes, there are a number of steps that have to occur before that point, but I think that that's my final goal (other than the NCAA championship, obviously).

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Personally, I want the boys in the tournament so that Chase can tie / break the NCAA record for GWGs in a season. Yes, there are a number of steps that have to occur before that point, but I think that that's my final goal (other than the NCAA championship, obviously).

Then let it be an OT game winner!

[REDaero91]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

After the 4 years our seniors have had i Troy-I think it would be a wonderful gift to them to be included in an NCAA Tournament field

Hear, hear.

[RPI67]

Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Thanks for the reminder. I was also at the 1994 game and listened to the 1995 game. Lots of scoreboard watching. I am rooting for Chase to get an NCAA appearance and goals. Hard to realize last NCAA goal was 1985. I watched 1985 on TV.