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View Full Version : RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond



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RPI92
03-16-2011, 11:18 PM
Just for completeness, the final group of five was named to the ECAC Top 50 http://www.ecachockey.com/men/2010-11/50th_Anniversary/20111603_Top_50_No_10 and included no Engineers. So three were chosen, Brinkworth, Juneau, and Oates.

Ahh, Juneau. That was when I was there. He skated around the opposing players like they were statues.

RPIcrank
03-16-2011, 11:51 PM
Tasty tidbits from the RPI hockey Pu Pu Platter ...

1) If RPI had played better (even just .500) at the end of the season, just how high might our seeding have been? At one point Ed Weaver wrote that RPI had to go something like 7-2 down the stretch. Did he mean 2-7 ? ;)
2) Why did RPI play so poorly down the stretch (and for the second straight year)? How big a factor was injuries and the flu?
3) How big a difference maker has York been? Without him, is RPI over .500 ?
4) If RPI makes the NCAA, will it be the longest lay-off between games for an NCAA team before the tourament? How much rust need to be scraped off?
5) Overall, the consolation seems to hurt the ECAC's chance of getting an extra team into the NCAA tourney. Some teams are better off NOT playing. Let's "go" Red!
6) Does Cornell drop out as being a TUC if it loses the ECAC consolation game to Colgate?
7) If RPI makes the NCAA tourney ... and scores a goal, who will be their first NCAA goal scorer since George Servinis? Chase?
8) Everytime RPI has scored an NCAA tournament goal in the last 25 years, it has won the NCAA championship!
9) If RPI draws BC, the Red finally gets a chance to avenge :) their March 7, 1978 7-6 overtime loss to BC (http://www.augenblick.org/rpi/h_04yr.html) in the ECAC quarter finals. RPI led very late in the game when BC tied it and then Joey Mullen scored in OT. RPI had been on a roll (7 straight wins) and had ECAC home ice. The Field House crowd was deafening but after the goal you could hear a pin drop. BC eventually made it to the NCAA championship game (and lost to BU). I believe that BC has played RPI only once in the last decade and that game was in Minnesota. Why doesn't RPI play BC more often?

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 12:06 AM
Half asleep responses.

1) A number 2 seed.
2) They were a big factor.
3) Obviously the question is who would we have had instead? I suspect that we wouldn't be above .500.
4) I don't know the answer, but I don't recall a similar situation.
5) I suspect taht it averages out to not mattering.
6) Don't know.
7) My guess is Chase also.
8) True.
9) The question is probably why doesn't BC play RPI more often.

burgie12
03-17-2011, 12:22 AM
Would we still be out if we had lost to Cornell in three games?
RPI would be sitting in a tie with BU for 16th place with 13 comparison wins (the RPI-UNH/UNO comparisons and UNO/WMU comparisons are the ones that I see right off the bat that have flipped). The key is that Cornell's RPI is 0.5071 (as opposed to 0.5063 currently or 0.5109 if we get swept) which can easily be put down to below 0.5000 (well, easily if they lose to Colgate in the consolation...).

I threw in one quick scenario and got Rensselaer up to T-12th place with Dartmouth with 17 comparison wins (RPI-UNH/UNO/CC/Notre Dame all get flipped).

So, bottom line is that we'd be in a slightly worse position since we would have 13 wins instead of 15, but Cornell could still be kicked out as a TUC and the ground would be recoverable, it would just be a more uphill battle.

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 12:26 AM
RPI would be sitting in a tie with BU for 16th place with 13 comparison wins (the RPI-UNH/UNO comparisons and UNO/WMU comparisons are the ones that I see right off the bat that have flipped). The key is that Cornell's RPI is 0.5071 (as opposed to 0.5063 currently or 0.5109 if we get swept) which can easily be put down to below 0.5000 (well, easily if they lose to Colgate in the consolation...).

I threw in one quick scenario and got Rensselaer up to T-12th place with Dartmouth with 17 comparison wins (RPI-UNH/UNO/CC/Notre Dame all get flipped).

So, bottom line is that we'd be in a slightly worse position since we would have 13 wins instead of 15, but Cornell could still be kicked out as a TUC and the ground would be recoverable, it would just be a more uphill battle.
I figured as much. I think that we are capable of beating Cornell 1 of 5 games in a season.

burgie12
03-17-2011, 12:54 AM
Not much math behind these answers, mostly just intuitive thought:
1) Low 2 or high 3
2) If you believe some of the nay-sayers, it's because Appert can't coach. I'd say that York's concussion hurt quite a bit and assuming that the flu was a factor in the Colgate series, a fairly significant impact.
3) I am still of the opinion that York is as important (if not more) to the team's success than Polacek.
4) I expect so. No proof. But, yea, I expect so. I mean, the only teams that could have 2 off weeks between the end of their season and the announcement of the field are the CCHA, AHA, and ECAC teams eliminated in the first round and the HEA teams that finish 9th and 10th (under the current conference tournament set-ups, I'm not old enough to know a lot of the older tournament set-ups). Now, Vermont nearly finished in 9th place last season and may have still made the NCAA tournament field, but they finished 8th and made it to the HEA semis. If anyone shows me a proper example, then that'd be pretty cool. But, my assumption is that we'd be the first team in a long while to have taken 2 full weeks off.
5) It also gives Dartmouth a chance to get a win if they happen to lose to Cornell on Friday. Dartmouth really needs a win this weekend to get into the tournament. There have been similar scenarios in the CCHA in recent years (one team really doesn't want to play in the consolation game because a loss knocks them out, one team really really wants to play because they need a win on the weekend). So, there are pluses and minuses.
6) It is very likely, but I'm going to hold off on saying it's an absolute certainty. My assumption is that their RPI would be highest if RIT and UNH were to win their conference tournaments (because we're trying to bump up their opponent's winning percentages). I'm not sure of the impact that the CCHA and WCHA tournaments would have. After running a few of the 24,000 scenarios where Cornell loses to Colgate in the consolation, UNH wins the HEA tourney, and RIT wins the AHA tourney, the highest RPI I could give Cornell was 0.4992. I'm just not sure how to make up the 0.0008.
7) I'm going to hedge my bets with Malchuk if it's against a grinder team or Chase if it's a skating team.
8) Woot woot!
9) I'm with Ralph. Rensselaer looks like they've been willing to schedule anybody and everybody who will play them, especially since Appert has shown up. But, since BC only has 5 effective non-conference games to schedule each season, we're not appearing on their schedule for whatever reason.

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 02:27 AM
Ed Weaver on the All-ECAC team http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2011/03/17/sports/doc4d819a4bd0a0f988468534.txt?viewmode=fullstory

Curious. Did the headline in the printed version also misspell Nick's name?

RPI67
03-17-2011, 06:23 AM
Thanks for the work. Let's go red.

DrDemento
03-17-2011, 06:51 AM
I have my special seat ready here at home for the televised games today. I am shutting off the phones and Jenny is standing guard at the door so no one, and i mean no one, can interrupt me. I will be glued into that seat and watching every college game Thursday through Saturday. I have a decent supply of vodka gimlets ready to mix. For today all I can say is go Minnesota Deluth and Alaska Ankorage and increase our chances! (at least I think that ould increase our chances)

realet
03-17-2011, 06:58 AM
RHamilton's work is done: and I want to thank him for giving WaP the exclusive on his results. We've linked to them here.

Hacking the PairWise (http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/hacking-pairwise.html)

Feel free to spread this to any non-ivory towers you like.

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 08:24 AM
RHamilton's work is done: and I want to thank him for giving WaP the exclusive on his results. We've linked to them here.

Hacking the PairWise (http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/hacking-pairwise.html)

Feel free to spread this to any non-ivory towers you like.

I suspect that RHamilton's work is only done until the WCHA play-in games are over. Thanks greatly to him.

Are you sure you did not mean "non-ivy towers"? :)

DrDemento
03-17-2011, 08:32 AM
RHamilton's work is done: and I want to thank him for giving WaP the exclusive on his results. We've linked to them here.

Hacking the PairWise (http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/hacking-pairwise.html)

Feel free to spread this to any non-ivory towers you like.

Oy-I need at least 1 valium. I thought there was going to be no math? Thanks to Reilly and WaP for all the work. Please keep us updated as the days go on so I know who to root for in each game.

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 08:33 AM
RHamilton (or anyone who recalls if it has already been posted), what was used for the tie probability in the calculations?

FlagDUDE08
03-17-2011, 08:36 AM
I wonder if it would be possible, in future releases of the code, to include a "dealbreaker" outcome where which game either eliminates most permutations in a final outcome or solidifies it. I think it would help the schools determine their appropriate "cheering section".

turk181
03-17-2011, 09:07 AM
http://www.seniorclassaward.com/vote/hockey_2010-11/

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 09:18 AM
http://www.seniorclassaward.com/vote/hockey_2010-11/

Done! I actually remembered yesterday without a prompt. :D

fr joe
03-17-2011, 09:25 AM
In my 48 years of RPI hockey that seems to be our forte. We can compete with and often beat the best teams in the country and the following weekend lose to teams that we should be able to walk all over. Kepler's third rule-never bet for or against RPI!!!

I remember listening to that game... we had lost to #1 UNH twice earlier in the season (at least one was a one-goal game)... Don Cutts next to last appearance (we lost two in the ECACs in the Boston Garden)... and Rick Smith's gamer in OT!

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 09:26 AM
I thought there was going to be no math? Thanks to Reilly and WaP for all the work. It's one thing when I read that on tLodge threads from liberal-art types, but RPI is a tech school. :D Did you say that after your first week as a freshman also? :p

Granted, it would have been quite tedious doing the calculations on a sliderule, or even on RPI's IBM 360, back in our days. :D

Ralph Baer
03-17-2011, 09:30 AM
I remember listening to that game... we had lost to #1 UNH twice earlier in the season (at least one was a one-goal game)... Don Cutts next to last appearance (we lost two in the ECACs in the Boston Garden)... and Rick Smith's gamer in OT!

I recall listening to it also. It was RPI's last victory will I was a grad student. IIRC Smith's two goals in that game were his only two that year.

Are you saying that Cutts only played one game in Boston? I don't recall that Ron Skibin played much at all that year.

fr joe
03-17-2011, 09:49 AM
Cox-Clark-Hislop were quite a load, weren't they? I couldn't keep up with the RPI skaters out for the sequence on that You Tube video, but weren't #2 & 5 (Mike Prpich & Gerry Beauclair) out there for all three goals? Red hung on to win in OT. (Rick Smith)

A few years later, when we played Cornell in the playoffs (was that a #6 @ #3 pairing?), we fell behind by 4 goals early but came storming back to tie it, only to lose 8-6. Cornell played their #2 goalie (David VanderMark) because he'd played well against us earlier in the year... they put Mark Napier in and the other red hung on to win. Last game for Dino Serra, Pat Hahn, Rick Smith, Rick Ens, Doug Elliott, Louie Basque (did LB play much that year, can't recall?) We were sparked by Ian Harrison, a goalie who transferred in from W Michigan (?) who won his first game... against Clarkson (Brian Shields, Bill Blackwood, Dave Taylor) in first night of our Tourney! Very RPI performance in the tourney: We beat Clarkson the first night, then hung on vs weaker Yale & Penn teams the last two nights! (Kepler's 3rd Law) Signs of things to come... '78 home playoff game and the disappointing loss to BC.