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Ralph Baer
03-16-2011, 02:41 PM
Absolutely, I'll send you an email with my findings. I believe I'm at somewhere around 4 or 5 hours away from exhausting all 1,179,648 permutations. After the two WCHA games on Thursday, there will be 294,912 remaining scenarios. Are you saving the appropriate information so they can be recombined, or will you have to run those cases again? Knowing me, if I had done these calculations, I wouldn't have saved something important. :(

realet
03-16-2011, 02:46 PM
and fifth would be on the golf course, right? ;)

Actually, there's probably a better likelihood that they'll miss the tournament altogether than being placed in Bridgeport.

AspyDad
03-16-2011, 02:50 PM
Either that, or if your code is open-source, I'm sure there are plenty of us that would be willing to help run scenarios.

I'm in. Whatever you guys need. What's a code? What's an open source? Wait, tb and I will run our einey meeney miney moo scenario tonight again to check for validity. We also plan on putting the teams on a dart board and getting drunk and then throw darts randomly to see who we come up with. This is very scientific so only professionals like tb and myself should try this methodolgy.

sshablak
03-16-2011, 02:54 PM
Wish some1 would run scenarios with Western losing both...see if Wodon is right ?

Ralph Baer
03-16-2011, 02:54 PM
Actually, there's probably a better likelihood that they'll miss the tournament altogether than being placed in Bridgeport. That was my thought also, but I didn't want to incur RC's wrath. ;) With the chance of us missing being about 15% and four tourney locations, that makes sense.

Ralph Baer
03-16-2011, 02:55 PM
Wish some1 would run scenarios with Western losing both...see if Wodon is right ?

They are all contained in what RHamilton is doing. :)

sshablak
03-16-2011, 02:59 PM
I ran a comp with western losing twice.....RPI finished #11 !!!

sshablak
03-16-2011, 03:02 PM
Ran it with Western winning the consol...RPI fiished #12

burgie12
03-16-2011, 03:12 PM
I ran a comp with western losing twice.....RPI finished #11 !!!

Ran it with Western winning the consol...RPI fiished #12
Congratulations!! You discovered that there are roughly 200,000 different ways for the other 17 games to play out assuming that Western Michigan loses twice!

Here: WMU loses twice, RPI finishes 15th and misses out because Bemidji State, Colgate, and RIT win auto-bids (one of the nearly 200,000 possible scenarios when Western Michigan loses two games).

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Yale defeats Cornell

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern

WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Colorado College

Ralph Baer
03-16-2011, 03:14 PM
Congratulations!! You discovered that there are roughly 200,000 different ways for the other 17 games to play out assuming that Western Michigan loses twice!

Here: WMU loses twice, RPI finishes 15th and misses out because Bemidji State, Colgate, and RIT win auto-bids (one of the nearly 200,000 possible scenarios when Western Michigan loses two games).

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Yale defeats Cornell

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern

WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Colorado College

Don't tempt Shabby with a scenario with Colgate winning out. :p

jmhusker
03-16-2011, 03:30 PM
Given the way the PWR works out, I've come to the conclusion that consolation games should not be played because of the possible moral hazard they present. For instance, let's say Colgate and Cornell win in the Semis. Yale makes the tournament no matter what and therefore they have no real incentive to take it to Dartmouth. Win or lose, they're hanging in Bridgeport the following weekend. Meanwhile Dartmouth is out of the NCAA if they lose - but in if they tie. What stops the two coaches from essentially playing it like a scrimmage and shooting for a tie? Heck, even if they play hard on both sides, if the game is tied late, what's the chance that they won't simply skate circles during OT? And if this all happens what does the league do - why celebrate that 4 ECAC teams are in the tournament (and maybe 5).

Much of the same applies to a WM consolation game against any of the other 3 CCHA teams.

sshablak
03-16-2011, 03:41 PM
Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.

knsmith
03-16-2011, 03:47 PM
Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.

We're all for good news, but you were setting forth an overinclusive general proposition that we have already considered ad nauseum.

sshablak
03-16-2011, 03:56 PM
Sorry

FreshFish
03-16-2011, 04:03 PM
Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.

We are engineers! we know deep in our heart that Murphy was an optimist!

"I thought it was the light at the end of the tunnel, while really it was the headlight of the oncoming train."

DrDemento
03-16-2011, 04:08 PM
Given the way the PWR works out, I've come to the conclusion that consolation games should not be played because of the possible moral hazard they present. For instance, let's say Colgate and Cornell win in the Semis. Yale makes the tournament no matter what and therefore they have no real incentive to take it to Dartmouth. Win or lose, they're hanging in Bridgeport the following weekend. Meanwhile Dartmouth is out of the NCAA if they lose - but in if they tie. What stops the two coaches from essentially playing it like a scrimmage and shooting for a tie? Heck, even if they play hard on both sides, if the game is tied late, what's the chance that they won't simply skate circles during OT? And if this all happens what does the league do - why celebrate that 4 ECAC teams are in the tournament (and maybe 5).

Much of the same applies to a WM consolation game against any of the other 3 CCHA teams.

I'm getting dizzy. This all makes just so much sense. The system could reward a team for laying down in a consolation game.:confused:

DrDemento
03-16-2011, 04:09 PM
Now I am beginning to wonder if we had won the third Colgate game in OT-and then lost to Cornell in Ithaca in 2 games what our chances of making the Tournament would be?

realet
03-16-2011, 04:11 PM
Now I am beginning to wonder if we had won the third Colgate game in OT-and then lost to Cornell in Ithaca in 2 games what our chances of making the Tournament would be?

Practically nil. Our RPI and TUC records would be lower than they are now.

burgie12
03-16-2011, 04:30 PM
We're all for good news, but you were setting forth an overinclusive general proposition that we have already considered ad nauseum.
Exactly. Probabilities are good, but certainties should be left to things that are actually certainties.

vicb
03-16-2011, 04:33 PM
Less than 50 hours to get your picks into the ECAC Pick The Playoffs Final Round.