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View Full Version : RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond



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FreshFish
03-16-2011, 09:32 AM
Stop hitting us with the negative waves.

I sincerely hope that all of those negative probability waves collapse to zero within the next two weeks and RPI is in as a 3rd line seed!!

It's just that, with my son, you could have a four-acre field of grass for him to play in and within 30 seconds he'd find the only 18" x 18" patch of mud in the whole place. The first time we went to the beach at low tide he managed to get his toe in a crab's pincer within the first minute of running around. etc. etc.

Maybe if I am gloomy enough I can get the negative waves to coalesce around me and leave the team alone!

DrDemento
03-16-2011, 09:36 AM
We only have to wait about 36 hours to see how some of the probabilites will change. I have made my plans to watch the 2 thursday games if Comcast carries them here in NJ.

knsmith
03-16-2011, 10:21 AM
We only have to wait about 36 hours to see how some of the probabilites will change. I have made my plans to watch the 2 thursday games if Comcast carries them here in NJ.

The CC game is on Fox College Sports-Central, which is nationally available on Comcast (via the "Sports Entertainment" package or similar).

rvd5star69
03-16-2011, 10:57 AM
A few tidbits on my mind. 1- How crappy the ice may be in AC 69 degrees forcasted on Friday. 2- Helfrich is back on the first line with CHASE. 3- After 2 shg allowed I think Coach took out that leave the puck for CHASE coming up the center play. 4- I have looked at the different regions if we get in. Flights are $420 cheapest I found to GB and ST LOUIS. Amtrak is $250 round trip. The drive to Manchester and Bridgeport from Troy is 3 and 3 1/2 hours.

rvd5star69
03-16-2011, 11:01 AM
Great job to Bailen and CHASE. First team honor and YORKIE with 3rd team. Looking forward to CHase being named a top 10 tomorrow hobey finalist, and ECAC POTY right after.
Good article in paper today http://troyrecord.com/articles/2011/03/16/sports/doc4d805b0599843392061068.txt

DrDemento
03-16-2011, 11:21 AM
The CC game is on Fox College Sports-Central, which is nationally available on Comcast (via the "Sports Entertainment" package or similar).

Thanks-I do subscribe to that package. Looks like my Thursday, Friday and Saturday are now booked. I hope Jenny does not want to go out for dinner because that is just not happening.

DrDemento
03-16-2011, 11:26 AM
A few tidbits on my mind. 1- How crappy the ice may be in AC 69 degrees forcasted on Friday. 2- Helfrich is back on the first line with CHASE. 3- After 2 shg allowed I think Coach took out that leave the puck for CHASE coming up the center play. 4- I have looked at the different regions if we get in. Flights are $420 cheapest I found to GB and ST LOUIS. Amtrak is $250 round trip. The drive to Manchester and Bridgeport from Troy is 3 and 3 1/2 hours.

Bridgeport is a possible for us-Manchester is remotely possible. The others are out for this year. Hoping we stay east if we get in.

RHamilton
03-16-2011, 01:09 PM
From your tool/data, can you tell us how our chances change based on the 4 possible outcomes from the Thursday games?
Yep, I should be able to harvest that data pretty easily.


BTW, are you keeping track of where everyone fits in or just RPI? If so, you could post the results on the Princeton/Brown thread.
Yes, I can generate a "results" page with percents for each rank for each team.


Or even better, he could send them to WaP and give us an exclusive.
Absolutely, I'll send you an email with my findings. I believe I'm at somewhere around 4 or 5 hours away from exhausting all 1,179,648 permutations.

AspyDad
03-16-2011, 01:25 PM
Maybe if I am gloomy enough I can get the negative waves to coalesce around me and leave the team alone!

That is Ralph's job.

sshablak
03-16-2011, 01:44 PM
Adam Wodon says "If all the favorites win this weekend" RPI is in with some scenarios as high as twelve. He also says that all you really need is for Western Michigan to lose at Michigan then lose to either Miami or Notre Dame Saturday night and you're in !!! He says chances are very high for that scenario. I'm hoping for you guys !
Hope this helps !

Sooo....Western Michigan has to upset either the #4, #6, or #8 ranked team at Joe Lewis arena in Detroit. If not you're in !!!

LTsatch
03-16-2011, 01:53 PM
A few tidbits on my mind. 1- How crappy the ice may be in AC 69 degrees forcasted on Friday. 2- Helfrich is back on the first line with CHASE. 3- After 2 shg allowed I think Coach took out that leave the puck for CHASE coming up the center play. 4- I have looked at the different regions if we get in. Flights are $420 cheapest I found to GB and ST LOUIS. Amtrak is $250 round trip. The drive to Manchester and Bridgeport from Troy is 3 and 3 1/2 hours.

Don't worry about coming to Bridgeport, you would most likely be the lowest seed there, and you can't play Yale, who is already guaranteed top seed in Bridgeport in the first round. Go knock some unsuspecting WCHA team off somewhere else! BTW You won't be missed. ;)

Senna
03-16-2011, 01:58 PM
Am I the only guy feeling inferior here !!!!


.......(slience)......

jmhusker
03-16-2011, 02:12 PM
Adam Wodon says "If all the favorites win this weekend" RPI is in with some scenarios as high as twelve. He also says that all you really need is for Western Michigan to lose at Michigan then lose to either Miami or Notre Dame Saturday night and you're in !!! He says chances are very high for that scenario. I'm hoping for you guys !
Hope this helps !

Sooo....Western Michigan has to upset either the #4, #6, or #8 ranked team at Joe Lewis arena in Detroit. If not you're in !!!
Gee that sounds great but it's only a bout a 40% chance that UWM loses both games (using Krach).

burgie12
03-16-2011, 02:14 PM
Adam Wodon says "If all the favorites win this weekend" RPI is in with some scenarios as high as twelve. He also says that all you really need is for Western Michigan to lose at Michigan then lose to either Miami or Notre Dame Saturday night and you're in !!! He says chances are very high for that scenario. I'm hoping for you guys !
Hope this helps !

Sooo....Western Michigan has to upset either the #4, #6, or #8 ranked team at Joe Lewis arena in Detroit. If not you're in !!!
You're also forgetting the possibility of Cornell, Colgate, Northeastern, Bemidji State, or UAA winning their individual tournaments.

WMU finishing 4th is not enough for the Engineers to be guaranteed in.

jmhusker
03-16-2011, 02:15 PM
Don't worry about coming to Bridgeport, you would most likely be the lowest seed there, and you can't play Yale, who is already guaranteed top seed in Bridgeport in the first round. Go knock some unsuspecting WCHA team off somewhere else! BTW You won't be missed. ;)
I'm rooting for Manchester myself. I've got a guilty conscience that we haven't earned a birth but I'm willing to forget all of that for a shot at knocking off BC.

sshablak
03-16-2011, 02:20 PM
Adam Wodon said it....I think he knows . I think ther's a better chance of W Mich losing twice than all the favorites win with no upsets !

realet
03-16-2011, 02:27 PM
Don't worry about coming to Bridgeport, you would most likely be the lowest seed there, and you can't play Yale, who is already guaranteed top seed in Bridgeport in the first round. Go knock some unsuspecting WCHA team off somewhere else! BTW You won't be missed. ;)

Yeah, as far as I can tell, drawing BC in Manchester or North Dakota in Green Bay are probably the two most likely scenarios. I think the NC$$'s cost-savings measures actually somewhat boosts the possibility that they will try to keep as many eastern teams in the east and as many western teams in the west as reasonable bracket integrity will allow. Given that Yale has to be in Bridgeport as the host and will be a #1 seed no matter what (the #1 overall provided they beat Colgate), RPI will not be in Bridgeport unless they get up to #12 or higher in the PWR (which isn't outside the realm of possibility, merely unlikely). Even then, if Union is there as a #2 seed, they're still not going to Connecticut.

So if I were a betting man, I'd say the most likely destinations for RPI are Manchester, Green Bay, St. Louis, and Bridgeport in that order.

burgie12
03-16-2011, 02:28 PM
Adam Wodon said it....I think he knows . I think ther's a better chance of W Mich losing twice than all the favorites win with no upsets !
You're right. And I'm also saying that WMU finishing 4th is not enough to guarantee Rensselaer a spot in the tournament. However, if all of the higher seeds do win, that is a guaranteed spot.

FlagDUDE08
03-16-2011, 02:31 PM
RHam, I hope you can pull a sleep schedule similar to Ralph's... it looks like you may be running quite a few scenarios throughout the night. :eek: :D

Either that, or if your code is open-source, I'm sure there are plenty of us that would be willing to help run scenarios.

Ralph Baer
03-16-2011, 02:33 PM
Yeah, as far as I can tell, drawing BC in Manchester or North Dakota in Green Bay are probably the two most likely scenarios. I think the NC$$'s cost-savings measures actually somewhat boosts the possibility that they will try to keep as many eastern teams in the east and as many western teams in the west as reasonable bracket integrity will allow. Given that Yale has to be in Bridgeport as the host and will be a #1 seed no matter what (the #1 overall provided they beat Colgate), RPI will not be in Bridgeport unless they get up to #12 or higher in the PWR (which isn't outside the realm of possibility, merely unlikely). Even then, if Union is there as a #2 seed, they're still not going to Connecticut.

So if I were a betting man, I'd say the most likely destinations for RPI are Manchester, Green Bay, St. Louis, and Bridgeport in that order.

and fifth would be on the golf course, right? ;)