View Full Version : RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

realet

03-15-2011, 10:58 PM

Do you mean that in about an hour you ran 30.5% of the permutations or however many permutations it takes to have a total of a 30.5% chance of happening?

I presumed that was one standard deviation.

RPI92

03-15-2011, 11:02 PM

12 - 5.8607277621524%

11 - 0.0088531694667127%

There's a 5.869580931% chance of a third-band seed? I like those odds.

Good work RH. Keep that program running. Please be ready to kick it off again for a recalc as soon as Thursday's games are completed.

Ralph Baer

03-15-2011, 11:05 PM

I presumed that was one standard deviation.

My recollection is that about 36.5% of time one is between plus and minus one SD of the mean in a normal distribution.

RHamilton

03-15-2011, 11:29 PM

Do you mean that in about an hour you ran 30.5% of the permutations or however many permutations it takes to have a total of a 30.5% chance of happening. The latter, since you started with the most likely ones, would represent much less than 30.5% of all of the permutations, however if you meant the former, it means that it only takes between 3 and 4 hours to run all of them.

It was the latter, Ralph. Currently at 82.5972% odds with permutations accounting for 60.0% of the _probable_ outcomes processed. I'm not expecting much more downward drift, if anything I expect an upturn based on what I'm seeing from the randomly ordered solver.

Ralph Baer

03-16-2011, 04:03 AM

It was the latter, Ralph. Currently at 82.5972% odds with permutations accounting for 60.0% of the _probable_ outcomes processed. I'm not expecting much more downward drift, if anything I expect an upturn based on what I'm seeing from the randomly ordered solver.

Thanks. They better turn out the same when they are done. :) BTW, are you keeping track of where everyone fits in or just RPI? If so, you could post the results on the Princeton/Brown thread.

realet

03-16-2011, 06:41 AM

BTW, are you keeping track of where everyone fits in or just RPI? If so, you could post the results on the Princeton/Brown thread.

Or even better, he could send them to WaP and give us an exclusive. :)

Great work, RHam.

manurespreader

03-16-2011, 07:12 AM

I presumed that was one standard deviation.

Somehow I thought one standard deviation was 65%.

At any rate, looking at the teams from a subjective point of view... CC has Schwartz( the best freshman in D1 btw) back which is a big factor and got them the win last weekend, however AA plays well against them. I'm picking AA to continue that.

I don't see WMU winning a single game the rest of the way, The competition is too tough and all are highly motivated. I think Dartmouth splits.

God luck to your team, tough sitting in your position. Much easier to kibbitz.

Ralph Baer

03-16-2011, 07:25 AM

Somehow I thought one standard deviation was 65%.

At any rate, looking at the teams from a subjective point of view... CC has Schwartz( the best freshman in D1 btw) back which is a big factor and got them the win last weekend, however AA plays well against them. I'm picking AA to continue that.

I don't see WMU winning a single game the rest of the way, The competition is too tough and all are highly motivated. I think Dartmouth splits.

God luck to your team, tough sitting in your position. Much easier to kibbitz.

It has been a long time. :) I looked it up. It's about 68.27%, so you are correct.

turk181

03-16-2011, 08:08 AM

congrats to Chase & Nick (1st Team ECAC)....Allen (3rd Team) & Chase for one of 3 finalists for POY http://www.rpiathletics.com/

FreshFish

03-16-2011, 08:13 AM

After running for about an hour, the program is predicting that we have an 84.2463% chance of making the playoffs (+/- ~4%). The margin of error accounts for a number of probability-based biases. I have one computer calculating the result of each permutation in highest-to-least-likely order, and another randomly picking permutations. The random one is converging to around 82%, which is inline with the probability based method.

I really respect all the work you've done, and I don't want this observation to come across the wrong way, and perhaps my perspective is skewed from having been a lifelong Cubs' fan.....

It seems to me you omitted an important variable from your calculations, especially when engineers are concerned! You can call it Maxwell's demon, you can call it Murphy's law, however you phrase it mathematically, in English it basically says "whatever can go wrong, will go wrong."

Or as Schrodinger's cat said right after the box was opened, 'however you view the superposition of probability wave states while the box was closed, once the box is opened all the probability waves except one collapse to zero, while one wave....ah!" and the cat stopped speaking......

DrDemento

03-16-2011, 08:35 AM

congrats to Chase & Nick (1st Team ECAC)....Allen (3rd Team) & Chase for one of 3 finalists for POY http://www.rpiathletics.com/

Very much deserved. RPI had 3 players named total for the awards which was the same as Yale and Princeton. Union led the league with 6 named players.

AspyDad

03-16-2011, 08:38 AM

troyboy and I have done our own calculations using our time tested formula of einey meeney miney moo and we concur with RH probablity %:D

AspyDad

03-16-2011, 08:42 AM

I really respect all the work you've done, and I don't want this observation to come across the wrong way, and perhaps my perspective is skewed from having been a lifelong Cubs' fan.....

It seems to me you omitted an important variable from your calculations, especially when engineers are concerned! You can call it Maxwell's demon, you can call it Murphy's law, however you phrase it mathematically, in English it basically says "whatever can go wrong, will go wrong."

Or as Schrodinger's cat said right after the box was opened, 'however you view the superposition of probability wave states while the box was closed, once the box is opened all the probability waves except one collapse to zero, while one wave....ah!" and the cat stopped speaking......

Stop hitting us with the negative waves.

AspyDad

03-16-2011, 08:43 AM

congrats to Chase & Nick (1st Team ECAC)....Allen (3rd Team) & Chase for one of 3 finalists for POY http://www.rpiathletics.com/

Well deserved for all. Bailen was off the charts good this year.

FlagDUDE08

03-16-2011, 08:51 AM

Stop hitting us with the negative waves.

FreshFish is only making sure that we aren't counting our chickens before they hatch. Can we make it? Yes. Have we made it yet? No.

AspyDad

03-16-2011, 08:58 AM

FreshFish is only making sure that we aren't counting our chickens before they hatch. Can we make it? Yes. Have we made it yet? No.

Why do you pick on me all the time? BTW - where are ur calculations?

turk181

03-16-2011, 08:59 AM

congrats to Chase & Nick (1st Team ECAC)....Allen (3rd Team) & Chase for one of 3 finalists for POY http://www.rpiathletics.com/ I was hoping Helfrich could have found his way onto at least the 3rd team but I can't argue with the selections....would've picked Andrew Miller over O'Neil for 1of3 in POY

FlagDUDE08

03-16-2011, 09:04 AM

Why do you pick on me all the time? BTW - where are ur calculations?

I call out anyone that is either misinformed or getting ahead of themselves. In your case, it's a cross between the second reason for calling out and your NHL loyalties. :D As for calculations, I have played with the Pairwise Predictor enough to know that there are situations where RPI makes it, and there are also situations where RPI does not. That means we are not safely in yet.

Ralph Baer

03-16-2011, 09:11 AM

congrats to Chase & Nick (1st Team ECAC)....Allen (3rd Team) & Chase for one of 3 finalists for POY http://www.rpiathletics.com/

Congrats to all. The fact that York was third team means that he probably won't get the Dryden award. It will give him something to shoot for next season (hint, hint ;) ).

jmhusker

03-16-2011, 09:31 AM

New one for Rhamilton...

From your tool/data, can you tell us how our chances change based on the 4 possible outcomes from the Thursday games?

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