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View Full Version : RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond



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jericho
03-13-2011, 08:41 PM
Dartmouth can still drop like a rock if they lose both games in AC, but they drop further if they have to play Colgate.


Northeastern downed BU, so there's one game that's our way. Now if all the OT games go the way that RPI wants them to, the Engineers are right back in the thick of things.

NYhockeyguy
03-13-2011, 08:47 PM
Gate takes down Union in OT

fr joe
03-13-2011, 08:48 PM
Colgate 4, Union 3 in OT
Western Mich 5, Ferris State 4, in OT

lugnut92
03-13-2011, 08:54 PM
So after a fantastic Friday and an okay Saturday, we are not having the greatest Sunday.

jericho
03-13-2011, 08:58 PM
OK, RPI fans: You have just become the BIGGEST Yale fans in the ECAC. Yes, even bigger than actual Yale fans.

lugnut92
03-13-2011, 09:06 PM
OK, RPI fans: You have just become the BIGGEST Yale fans in the ECAC. Yes, even bigger than actual Yale fans.
And even bigger Badger fans.

burgie12
03-13-2011, 09:17 PM
And even bigger Badger fans.
And, sadly, Cornell fans. I need to double-check my maths, but I don't think that the Big Red can drop from TUC status (if they can, it will be by ten-thousandths of a point). So, they need to take down Dartmouth and Colgate also has to take down Dartmouth in the consolation game.

fr joe
03-13-2011, 09:46 PM
Wisconsin 1, Coloado College 0, early in the 3rd

burgie12
03-13-2011, 10:08 PM
And, sadly, Cornell fans. I need to double-check my maths, but I don't think that the Big Red can drop from TUC status (if they can, it will be by ten-thousandths of a point). So, they need to take down Dartmouth and Colgate also has to take down Dartmouth in the consolation game.
Upon further inspection, Cornell can drop out of TUC status. If they get swept, then I got them down to 0.4986. Everyone can breathe easily, we don't have to cheer for the Faux Red.

The following set of games got the Engineers into 13th place, with the only non-top 15 auto-bid going to the AHA:


ECAC:
20110318 Cg 0 Ya 1 NC
20110318 Cr 0 Da 1 NC
20110319 Cg 2 Cr 1 NC
20110319 Da 0 Ya 1 NC

WCHA:
20110313 Wi 1 CC 0 NC
20110317 BS 0 MD 1 NC
20110317 AA 0 Wi 1 NC
20110318 MD 0 DU 1 NC
20110318 Wi 0 ND 1 NC
20110319 DU 0 ND 1 NC

CCHA:
20110318 Mm 0 Nt 1 NC
20110318 WM 0 Mi 1 NC
20110319 WM 0 Mm 1 NC
20110319 Mi 0 Nt 1 NC

HEA:
20110318 NE 0 BC 1 NC
20110318 Mr 0 NH 1 NC
20110319 NH 0 BC 1 NC

AHA:
20110318 Ct 0 RT 1 NC
20110318 HC 0 AF 1 NC
20110319 AF 0 RT 1 NC

I think there are a number of these things (such as the DU / UND result or the entire AHA weekend) that is fairly variable and doesn't have much, if any impact on our PWR standing.

But, I'm going to take my leave and let Tom handle the in-depth analysis of this. He's been doing it much longer than I have. I'm just having fun plugging in numbers.

burgie12
03-13-2011, 10:15 PM
Alright, I lied. One more point of interest that I found. The ECAC might be able to squeak in 5 teams to the tournament.

Keep the same game results as above, but change the ECAC games to:

20110318 Cg 0 Ya 1 NC
20110318 Cr 2 Da 1 NC
20110319 Cg 0 Da 1 NC
20110319 Cr 2 Ya 1 NC

Yale stays as the overall #1 seed, Union finishes the season at #9, RPI jumps all the way up to a tie for 12th with UNO (wins the head-to-head, loses RPI), and Dartmouth finishes in a tie with BU at #14 (wins head-to-head, wins RPI by less than 0.0001). And, Cornell would get an autobid (#15, displacing BU). So, there you go, folks. 5 ECAC teams in the NCAAs.

lugnut92
03-13-2011, 10:19 PM
CC leading Wisconsin about 14 minutes into the third 2-1 on two PPGs. Let's go Badgers!

lugnut92
03-13-2011, 10:33 PM
And CC wins. Bad end to the night.

fr joe
03-13-2011, 10:39 PM
Northeastern & Notre Dame won. Yale is still standing. Wonder how TR crunches the numbers. With a weekend to go...

We are now Yale fans... someone has to lose btw Dartmouth & Cornell (ideal: Yale wins it all and hope it's the Green who face Colgate in the consy at AC... may Colgate brush them out of contention!) Who should we be pulling for in the other leagues? Wait and see WaP.

lugnut92
03-13-2011, 10:42 PM
No upsets puts us at #14. WaP has us as high as #11. I believe.

realet
03-13-2011, 11:31 PM
Just a quick, first-look analysis that might be wrong:

There would have to be a great number of things going wrong for RPI to miss the tournament, I think. I'm very optimistic. Haven't found a way yet for them to end up any lower than they are now (#16) although I have had them as high as #14 and still out of the tournament on upsets. I do have a fairly quick and relatively easy way for them to end up as high as #11.

WaP will provide a full report on Monday evening. In the meantime, if anyone finds anything using the PairWise Predictor you think should be brought to our attention, shoot me an email: tomyousieve (AT) gmail (dot) com.

Ralph Baer
03-13-2011, 11:49 PM
I root for SCC for the first time in my life and they lose. I guess that figures. :mad:

Ralph Baer
03-14-2011, 04:53 AM
A new article by Ed Weaver on RPI's chances http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2011/03/14/sports/doc4d7d965781257647641965.txt?viewmode=fullstory.

jmhusker
03-14-2011, 08:50 AM
OK, RPI fans: You have just become the BIGGEST Yale fans in the ECAC. Yes, even bigger than actual Yale fans.
Don't totally agree with this. I think we need to be the biggest Colgate fans and here is why. From what I can see, so long as either Cornell or Dartmouth lose both games this weekend then we are quite likely in. One of them will lose in the semis and the question becomes can they lose the consolation? If Colgate knocks off Yale then that 2nd game for the D/C loser is against Yale - which is great. In either case, we still are likely to make it in because we gain more spots from having D or C lose 2 than having Yale win while D and C only win 1 game. If Yale wins in the Semis, then the consolation is against Colgate (in which case we still root hard for a Colgate win). On top of that, since we've played Colgate 5 times, every win by them is worth 5/2 what the impact of a loss by the others is as far as our RPI goes.

So I'm rooting for Colgate to go all the way and for us to finish somewhere near 12 with a win by Yale in the consolation.

FlagDUDE08
03-14-2011, 09:19 AM
It's nice to be around people online that understand how the PWR works. There are some that still believe the smoke-filled room presence. Probably even more so because of what happened in that other college sport played this time of year (and I don't mean wrestling).

LTsatch
03-14-2011, 09:28 AM
Don't totally agree with this. I think we need to be the biggest Colgate fans and here is why. From what I can see, so long as either Cornell or Dartmouth lose both games this weekend then we are quite likely in. One of them will lose in the semis and the question becomes can they lose the consolation? If Colgate knocks off Yale then that 2nd game for the D/C loser is against Yale - which is great. In either case, we still are likely to make it in because we gain more spots from having D or C lose 2 than having Yale win while D and C only win 1 game. If Yale wins in the Semis, then the consolation is against Colgate (in which case we still root hard for a Colgate win). On top of that, since we've played Colgate 5 times, every win by them is worth 5/2 what the impact of a loss by the others is as far as our RPI goes.

So I'm rooting for Colgate to go all the way and for us to finish somewhere near 12 with a win by Yale in the consolation.

You considered that your scenario allows Colgate to get in?