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PrincetonFan
02-19-2011, 07:23 AM
Thought I'd get a thread started. Three pairs, if I'm not mistaken, are set:

Harvard-St. Lawrence, Dartmouth-Clarkson, Princeton-Quinnipiac.

I don't know if Clarkson has clinched sixth place, but they do play Union today, so it would seem likely.

Princeton-Q-Pac is set, it just remains to be seen where the games will be played.

Then there's the cluster for the last spot and the right to play Cornell, with three times tied at 18 points. Yale would seem to have the best chance to breaking free, as they play Princeton at home, and have the hot goalie and beat Princeton earlier this year, but Princeton has something to play for, too, RPI plays St. Lawrence. Colgate will have a tough task in beating Dartmouth.

But what if all three teams lose (or win)? Does anyone know how the ECAC breaks three-way ties? All three teams have the exact same conference win-loss total (8-11-2)

GRussinko
02-19-2011, 07:32 AM
RPI can end up playing either Cornell or Harvard (or miss the playoffs entirely) based upon today's results. An RPI win over SLU moves them into a tie for 7th and RPI wins basically all the possible tiebreakers as long as they can pull off a win today.

I broke down the logjam at 7th-10th last night at Without a Peer. http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/02/womens-hockey-mid-weekend-update_18.html

PrincetonFan
02-19-2011, 08:22 AM
Nice work, GRussinko. I hadn't foreseen the four-way tie.

Skate79
02-19-2011, 08:57 AM
As a Crimson fan, I'd much rather see SLU than RPI. We haven't played all that great against the Engineers for some reason and in a short series, anything can happen. SLU is more of a finesse team and we have had great success against them both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

Off what I saw last night, Dartmouth should have zero problems handling Colgate.

Crimson Hockey Fan
02-19-2011, 10:32 AM
thanks for laying out those scenarios. i agree with skate79, as a Harvard fan I am not interested in seeing RPI again. I still have nightmares over that too many player penalty.

FlagDUDE08
02-19-2011, 04:55 PM
Dartmouth has beaten Colgate, and Princeton has won. RPI will make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome.

EDIT: SLU beats RPI. SLU gets 7th, RPI gets 8th.

dave1381
02-19-2011, 05:26 PM
Off what I saw last night, Dartmouth should have zero problems handling Colgate.
It's Clarkson, not Colgate. Colgate's season is over.

Clarkson@Dartmouth matches up the only teams that took points from Cornell! Both improved a lot down the stretch:
Clarkson: started 3-5-1, finished 7-3-3
Dartmouth: started 6-6, finished 9-1

Trends in other matchups: Princeton is also much improved, note both teams played Cornell early
Princeton: started 3-6-1, finished 10-2
Quinnipiac: started 4-5-1, finished 8-4

SLU has been consistently .500 and Harvard consistently better all season.

RPI has really backed into the playoffs, were once 7-4-1, 1-8-1 since. Were outscored 12-1 by Cornell this season.

dave1381
02-19-2011, 05:30 PM
One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.

dave1381
02-19-2011, 05:42 PM
One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.

Though worth mentioning Princeton has lost 4 straight quarterfinal series (2 as host). Their only series wins were in 02-03 (as 3 seed) and 05-06 (as 2 seed). They lost as 4 seed in 01-02 and 06-07, and as 3 seed in 08-09.

ARM
02-19-2011, 06:43 PM
It's Clarkson, not Colgate. Colgate's season is over.Skate79 meant today; Colgate was at Dartmouth today.


One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.Maybe not, but outside of Cornell, none of the other ECAC teams are so strong that it would be unheard of for them to get beat. Both Harvard and Dartmouth have struggled in net at times, so one off weekend could end their seasons.

dave1381
02-19-2011, 07:19 PM
Skate79 meant today; Colgate was at Dartmouth today.
oops.


Maybe not, but outside of Cornell, none of the other ECAC teams are so strong that it would be unheard of for them to get beat. Both Harvard and Dartmouth have struggled in net at times, so one off weekend could end their seasons.
Agreed. For example, Harvard and SLU played even into the 3rd period in one game and even until the final seconds of overtime in game two. Yet Harvard has consistently found a way to win more than SLU this year.

But none of the road teams stand out this year as being hotter than the home teams entering this series, like, for example, RPI in 08-09 which was unbeaten in its last 5 entering the playoffs while allowing a goal per game and then proceeded to upset Princeton and Harvard. If any of the 6-8 teams win, it'll be an upset.

PrincetonFan
02-20-2011, 07:20 AM
Though worth mentioning Princeton has lost 4 straight quarterfinal series (2 as host). Their only series wins were in 02-03 (as 3 seed) and 05-06 (as 2 seed). They lost as 4 seed in 01-02 and 06-07, and as 3 seed in 08-09.

Given this, I, even as a Princeton fan, can not generate tremendous confidence on the Q-Pac series. If everyone is healthy and Weber is on the top of her game, we should win, but with their history who knows.

OnMAA
02-20-2011, 12:43 PM
But none of the road teams stand out this year as being hotter than the home teams entering this series, like, for example, RPI in 08-09 which was unbeaten in its last 5 entering the playoffs while allowing a goal per game and then proceeded to upset Princeton and Harvard. If any of the 6-8 teams win, it'll be an upset.

Sometimes it is about the matchups. I believe the 3 vs 6 series has the best chance of being an upset. Both teams were hot down the stretch. I think the difference lies in the goaltending. Clarkson's rookie tender has a pretty impressive resume in years prior, and once she became the first stringer, the team in front of her has been playing with more confidence. I believe that Clarky will win this series on tending.

Here are my predictions:

Cornell over RPI....Sweep
Harvard over SLU...I can see SLU taking one game as they do have some fire power.
Clarkson over Dartmouth....In an exciting 3 game series.
Quinnipiac over Princeton....Tough one to call, Princeton more hot in second half, but neither team convincing last weekend. Think the Quinnipiac Tender to be the difference maker here.

dave1381
02-20-2011, 12:59 PM
ok, I agree Clarkson has been better since elevating the rookie 'tender, but I don't think she's good enough to overcome Dartmouth.

I wouldn't be surprised to see SLU take 1 from Harvard either.

Quinnipiac's goalie was great last season, probably merely above average this season. Princeton's goalie had the longest hot streak this season. Quinnipiac has just been tough to predict this year. I still think all the home teams will win, and more confident of this than any recent season.

OnMAA
02-20-2011, 02:09 PM
Quinnipiac's goalie was great last season, probably merely above average this season. Princeton's goalie had the longest hot streak this season. Quinnipiac has just been tough to predict this year. I still think all the home teams will win, and more confident of this than any recent season.

Between the two goalies they gave up 5 goals against Brown this weekend. Not exactly a vote of confidence going into the playoffs. Be interesting to see who can rebound better next weekend.

Dr. Seuss Fan
02-20-2011, 04:40 PM
Looking at the fan numbers this weekend, Dartmouth had almost 2,500 supporters. Would anticipate that numbers could even grow with first round playoffs in our house! Don't know the Clarkson goalie, but Lindsay Holcroft has been stellar in goal for the Big Green this season, her first collegiate season.

Skate79
02-20-2011, 04:45 PM
Skate79 meant today; Colgate was at Dartmouth today.

Maybe not, but outside of Cornell, none of the other ECAC teams are so strong that it would be unheard of for them to get beat. Both Harvard and Dartmouth have struggled in net at times, so one off weekend could end their seasons.

Right. I was referring to yesterday's game.

Laura Bellamy doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for me and we are so young that I'm not sure what will happen. I do think we'll take SLU in two games but they will be tough, close contests. As Dave pointed out, both regular season games went down to the wire and I don't expect that to change next weekend.

I don't see any upsets unless you think Q-Pac beating Princeton is an upset. Neither team lit the world on fire this season but this is the 'second season' and so you never know. Clarkson will give Dartmouth some trouble but the Green have been especially impressive lately (their Colgate win notwithstanding) and I expect them to take care of the Knights in two games. Same for Cornell.

OnMAA
02-20-2011, 05:13 PM
Looking at the fan numbers this weekend, Dartmouth had almost 2,500 supporters. Would anticipate that numbers could even grow with first round playoffs in our house! Don't know the Clarkson goalie, but Lindsay Holcroft has been stellar in goal for the Big Green this season, her first collegiate season.

The Clarky Freshman was on TC U18 last year. They also have two other Freshman that were on TC U18 the year before. It took those three a while to get going, but they have all been clicking of late. All three are proven winners on winning programs from the past, so to me that is the intangible not to be discounted.

PrincetonFan
02-20-2011, 08:08 PM
I don't see any upsets unless you think Q-Pac beating Princeton is an upset. Neither team lit the world on fire this season but this is the 'second season' and so you never know.

I don't know what your definition of "lit the world on fire" means, but Princeton has gone 13-2 over their last 15, including six shoutouts and a win over Harvard on the road. That doesn't guarantee that they won't pull their usual el-foldo in the playoffs, but give credit where credit is due.

Skate79
02-20-2011, 08:27 PM
I don't know what your definition of "lit the world on fire" means, but Princeton has gone 13-2 over their last 15, including six shoutouts and a win over Harvard on the road. That doesn't guarantee that they won't pull their usual el-foldo in the playoffs, but give credit where credit is due.

I was referring to their season as a whole, not a particular segment of the season. And yes, I was there at Bright for that game and they played well as they usually do against Harvard, last year's playoffs notwithstanding. Harvard has done very well during the same stretch but I wouldn't say they are a lock for anything at this point because of their youth and goaltending that isn't top tier.