ECAC Playoffs, 2011

[PrincetonFan]

Thought I'd get a thread started. Three pairs, if I'm not mistaken, are set:

Harvard-St. Lawrence, Dartmouth-Clarkson, Princeton-Quinnipiac.

I don't know if Clarkson has clinched sixth place, but they do play Union today, so it would seem likely.

Princeton-Q-Pac is set, it just remains to be seen where the games will be played.

Then there's the cluster for the last spot and the right to play Cornell, with three times tied at 18 points. Yale would seem to have the best chance to breaking free, as they play Princeton at home, and have the hot goalie and beat Princeton earlier this year, but Princeton has something to play for, too, RPI plays St. Lawrence. Colgate will have a tough task in beating Dartmouth.

But what if all three teams lose (or win)? Does anyone know how the ECAC breaks three-way ties? All three teams have the exact same conference win-loss total (8-11-2)

[GRussinko]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

RPI can end up playing either Cornell or Harvard (or miss the playoffs entirely) based upon today's results. An RPI win over SLU moves them into a tie for 7th and RPI wins basically all the possible tiebreakers as long as they can pull off a win today.

I broke down the logjam at 7th-10th last night at Without a Peer. http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/02/...update_18.html

[PrincetonFan]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Nice work, GRussinko. I hadn't foreseen the four-way tie.

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

As a Crimson fan, I'd much rather see SLU than RPI. We haven't played all that great against the Engineers for some reason and in a short series, anything can happen. SLU is more of a finesse team and we have had great success against them both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

Off what I saw last night, Dartmouth should have zero problems handling Colgate.

[Crimson Hockey Fan]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

thanks for laying out those scenarios. i agree with skate79, as a Harvard fan I am not interested in seeing RPI again. I still have nightmares over that too many player penalty.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Dartmouth has beaten Colgate, and Princeton has won. RPI will make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome.

EDIT: SLU beats RPI. SLU gets 7th, RPI gets 8th.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Off what I saw last night, Dartmouth should have zero problems handling Colgate.

It's Clarkson, not Colgate. Colgate's season is over.

Clarkson@Dartmouth matches up the only teams that took points from Cornell! Both improved a lot down the stretch:
Clarkson: started 3-5-1, finished 7-3-3
Dartmouth: started 6-6, finished 9-1

Trends in other matchups: Princeton is also much improved, note both teams played Cornell early
Princeton: started 3-6-1, finished 10-2
Quinnipiac: started 4-5-1, finished 8-4

SLU has been consistently .500 and Harvard consistently better all season.

RPI has really backed into the playoffs, were once 7-4-1, 1-8-1 since. Were outscored 12-1 by Cornell this season.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.

Though worth mentioning Princeton has lost 4 straight quarterfinal series (2 as host). Their only series wins were in 02-03 (as 3 seed) and 05-06 (as 2 seed). They lost as 4 seed in 01-02 and 06-07, and as 3 seed in 08-09.

[ARM]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

It's Clarkson, not Colgate. Colgate's season is over.

Skate79 meant today; Colgate was at Dartmouth today.

One more thought: I'm not expecting any road series wins. Clarkson was the 5-8 team with the most upset potential, IMO, but they drew the hottest team in the league.

Maybe not, but outside of Cornell, none of the other ECAC teams are so strong that it would be unheard of for them to get beat. Both Harvard and Dartmouth have struggled in net at times, so one off weekend could end their seasons.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Skate79 meant today; Colgate was at Dartmouth today.

oops.

Maybe not, but outside of Cornell, none of the other ECAC teams are so strong that it would be unheard of for them to get beat. Both Harvard and Dartmouth have struggled in net at times, so one off weekend could end their seasons.

Agreed. For example, Harvard and SLU played even into the 3rd period in one game and even until the final seconds of overtime in game two. Yet Harvard has consistently found a way to win more than SLU this year.

But none of the road teams stand out this year as being hotter than the home teams entering this series, like, for example, RPI in 08-09 which was unbeaten in its last 5 entering the playoffs while allowing a goal per game and then proceeded to upset Princeton and Harvard. If any of the 6-8 teams win, it'll be an upset.

[PrincetonFan]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Though worth mentioning Princeton has lost 4 straight quarterfinal series (2 as host). Their only series wins were in 02-03 (as 3 seed) and 05-06 (as 2 seed). They lost as 4 seed in 01-02 and 06-07, and as 3 seed in 08-09.

Given this, I, even as a Princeton fan, can not generate tremendous confidence on the Q-Pac series. If everyone is healthy and Weber is on the top of her game, we should win, but with their history who knows.

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

But none of the road teams stand out this year as being hotter than the home teams entering this series, like, for example, RPI in 08-09 which was unbeaten in its last 5 entering the playoffs while allowing a goal per game and then proceeded to upset Princeton and Harvard. If any of the 6-8 teams win, it'll be an upset.

Sometimes it is about the matchups. I believe the 3 vs 6 series has the best chance of being an upset. Both teams were hot down the stretch. I think the difference lies in the goaltending. Clarkson's rookie tender has a pretty impressive resume in years prior, and once she became the first stringer, the team in front of her has been playing with more confidence. I believe that Clarky will win this series on tending.

Here are my predictions:

Cornell over RPI....Sweep
Harvard over SLU...I can see SLU taking one game as they do have some fire power.
Clarkson over Dartmouth....In an exciting 3 game series.
Quinnipiac over Princeton....Tough one to call, Princeton more hot in second half, but neither team convincing last weekend. Think the Quinnipiac Tender to be the difference maker here.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

ok, I agree Clarkson has been better since elevating the rookie 'tender, but I don't think she's good enough to overcome Dartmouth.

I wouldn't be surprised to see SLU take 1 from Harvard either.

Quinnipiac's goalie was great last season, probably merely above average this season. Princeton's goalie had the longest hot streak this season. Quinnipiac has just been tough to predict this year. I still think all the home teams will win, and more confident of this than any recent season.

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC Playoffs, 2011

Quinnipiac's goalie was great last season, probably merely above average this season. Princeton's goalie had the longest hot streak this season. Quinnipiac has just been tough to predict this year. I still think all the home teams will win, and more confident of this than any recent season.

Between the two goalies they gave up 5 goals against Brown this weekend. Not exactly a vote of confidence going into the playoffs. Be interesting to see who can rebound better next weekend.