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Pioneerfan11
02-15-2011, 01:35 PM
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/icehockey-men/d3/regional_rankings

spwood
02-15-2011, 01:55 PM
OK, Norwich is ahead of Plattsburgh? If my quick look is correct (and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm not......), Plattsburgh is 6-3-1 against ranked teams and Norwich is 4-4-1 plus the head-to-head is Plattsburgh 2-0. Can someone let me know what the NCAA is thinking here? I'm surprised to see the Cadets ahead of Plattsburgh...

Dyce
02-15-2011, 02:01 PM
Here they are, for easy reference:


EAST

1 Oswego State 19-3 20-3
2 Elmira 15-5-3 15-5-3
3 Utica 15-7 17-7
4 Norwich 13-5-3 15-5-3
5 Plattsburgh State 15-7-1 16-7-1
6 Hobart 12-6-2 13-6-2
7 Castleton 17-3-1 19-3-1
8 Neumann 12-7-5 12-7-5
9 SUNY Geneseo 12-5-2 15-6-2
10 Manhattanville 13-8-1 14-8-1
11 Salem State 13-5-2 14-5-2
12 Bowdoin 11-7-1 13-7-1
13 Williams 12-6-2 13-6-3
14 Middlebury 8-6-5 11-6-5
15 Fitchburg State 11-5-1 13-5-1

WEST

1 St. Norbert 20-4-1 20-4-1
2 Adrian 17-2-1 19-3-1
3 Hamline 13-4-5 13-5-5
4 Wisconsin-Stout 15-10 15-10
5 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 13-10-1 14-10-1
6 St. Thomas (Minn.) 14-9-2 14-9-2
7 Milwaukee School of Engineering 19-3-1 19-3-1

Also, Steve, you beat me to the punch on the first thing that popped out in my case: Plattsburgh and Norwich were largely a wash across the board prior to the rankings, with the exception of the 2-0 H2H lead for Plattsburgh, which you would think would become crucial in their case. Now that the rankings are out, the Cards clearly outstrip the Cadets in RNK as well (I got the same numbers as you). It seems odd simply because I wouldn't think it'd be a situation where the numbers are close enough for it to go either way.

Pioneerfan11
02-15-2011, 02:04 PM
What I find most surprising is Superior not making the West rankings. I believe they were 2nd in Rennell's most recent projection. I know they have been in a slump of late, but was not expecting to see them completely absent from the rankings.

VT bragging rights
02-15-2011, 02:23 PM
1) Defending National Champions
2) Larger traveling fan base (AARP members) = $$$$ @ Final Four

joecct
02-15-2011, 02:26 PM
It's record vs. ranked. Just because you're #1 or #15 does not matter. It's your record against the other 14 that counts.

sshablak
02-15-2011, 02:58 PM
So confusing....Utica's ranked third in the East but they have to hope for only a "Pool C" spot to get in ????? Is that right ? So they prob can't lose to Elmira and Neumann ??? What if they split ??

LoudHorns31
02-15-2011, 03:05 PM
1) Defending National Champions
2) Larger traveling fan base (AARP members) = $$$$ @ Final Four

Plattsburgh traveling fan base is up there as well.... maybe not as many AARP members as Norwich though.....

LakerFan99
02-15-2011, 03:07 PM
Wow! Elmira #2 and Utica #3. I assume they use a different criteria than USCHO does, because that's a pretty big difference in the 2 polls.

Pioneerfan11
02-15-2011, 03:07 PM
So confusing....Utica's ranked third in the East but they have to hope for only a "Pool C" spot to get in ????? Is that right ? So they prob can't lose to Elmira and Neumann ??? What if they split ??

Utica is ELIGIBLE for the Pool B spot in the tournament, but with an 0-2 record against Elmira, I can't see them passing them without beating them both this coming Saturday and again in the ECAC-W tournament. Even that might not be enough...

Otherwise, yes, Pool C would be the other way in. Losses against Elmira and then Neumann again in the ECAC-W semis would make 4 losses in a row to end the season and 0-7 against those 2 schools. That would NOT be good for UC's chances.

NUProf
02-15-2011, 03:34 PM
1) Defending National Champions
2) Larger traveling fan base (AARP members) = $$$$ @ Final Four

Perhaps the committee noted that the difference in record against ranked teams between Norwich and Plattsburgh is entirely due to their HTH results. The record of NU vs. Ranked teams not named Plattsburgh is 4-2-1 and the record of Plattsburgh agains ranked teams not named Norwich is 4-3-1. Analyzing ranked team to not double count the NU/Platts series gives NU a slightly better result. Ah the joys of smoke filled phone calls.

In the West, Adrian is overranked, and I find it odd that Stevens Point and Superior are missing. St. Thomas and MSOE are marginal choices at best. Now, if MSOE beats or splits with Adrian this weekend, I might change my mind about them. This looks like the West committee is overweighting for winning percentage. SOS figures for both MSOE and Adrian are not that good yet, although I have a lot of respect for the way Adrian is trying to put together a good NC schedule, but I don't think the SOS supports them being ranked that high.

NorthernLite
02-15-2011, 04:34 PM
Outside of Oswego,and possibly St. Norbert, there isn't one of these ranked teams that can afford to lose their conference playoff. It's always an interesting time of the year, but I think this sideshow would be considered a distraction for any team that has a shot at Pool A.

Josh & Matt are probably picking them selves up off the floor and scrambling to make sense of this.

PrezdeJohnson09
02-15-2011, 04:43 PM
Wow! Elmira #2 and Utica #3. I assume they use a different criteria than USCHO does, because that's a pretty big difference in the 2 polls.

There is no criteria in the USCHO poll. It is voted on by 20 coaches and media members around the country is purely subjective to them.

VermontfaninNY
02-15-2011, 04:54 PM
Its the most wonderful time of the year.

Sir Nubs
02-15-2011, 04:56 PM
Perhaps the committee noted that the difference in record against ranked teams between Norwich and Plattsburgh is entirely due to their HTH results. The record of NU vs. Ranked teams not named Plattsburgh is 4-2-1 and the record of Plattsburgh agains ranked teams not named Norwich is 4-3-1. Analyzing ranked team to not double count the NU/Platts series gives NU a slightly better result. Ah the joys of smoke filled phone calls.

In the West, Adrian is overranked, and I find it odd that Stevens Point and Superior are missing. St. Thomas and MSOE are marginal choices at best. Now, if MSOE beats or splits with Adrian this weekend, I might change my mind about them. This looks like the West committee is overweighting for winning percentage. SOS figures for both MSOE and Adrian are not that good yet, although I have a lot of respect for the way Adrian is trying to put together a good NC schedule, but I don't think the SOS supports them being ranked that high.

Adrian has beaten Hamline head-to-head in a convincing fashion. Since the beginning, Adrian has been told to play a stronger schedule. They've done it and beaten the team that leads the MIAC right now. To not reward that would be extremely hypocritical of the committee. Superior also lost head-to-head to St. Thomas. Eau Claire has played one of the best, if not the best, schedule in the west. I think the west committee has done an excellent job factoring in winning percentage, strength of schedule and head-to-head together. If head-to-head doesn't matter, then why even bother playing a regular season.

Matt Rennell
02-15-2011, 05:29 PM
Josh & Matt are probably picking them selves up off the floor and scrambling to make sense of this.

Yes and no. The Eastern rankings make as much sense as one can expect from the NCAA. Aside from a few glaring head scratchers (Norwich over Plattsburgh, and Williams and Middlebury being ranked) it makes sense. I had the top 12 teams correct, just not in the exact order. That said Hobart, Geneseo, Neumann, Castleton, and Manhattanville were very difficult for me to rank. They are all so close together that I would have had no issue with any order the committee ranked these teams. For the most part I agree with the Eastern Rankings.

As for the West. The Western committee is out to lunch. Someone should call the authorities because some pretty heavy drugs have to be involved to come up with those results.

NUProf
02-15-2011, 05:54 PM
Adrian has beaten Hamline head-to-head in a convincing fashion. Since the beginning, Adrian has been told to play a stronger schedule. They've done it and beaten the team that leads the MIAC right now. To not reward that would be extremely hypocritical of the committee. Superior also lost head-to-head to St. Thomas. Eau Claire has played one of the best, if not the best, schedule in the west. I think the west committee has done an excellent job factoring in winning percentage, strength of schedule and head-to-head together. If head-to-head doesn't matter, then why even bother playing a regular season.

However, Adrian has the 23rd ranked SOS in the West out of 24 teams. I don't disagree that they should be ranked, but their profile does not place them higher than 7th in the West. There are more criteria than just H2H. SOS is important, when you are next to the last in the region on SOS, it is really hard to justify a ranking of second. See my West rankings when they are published on D3WH for my computer's take on the rankings.

I think the West committee has grossly undervalued strength of schedule.

Josh Carey
02-15-2011, 06:53 PM
However, Adrian has the 23rd ranked SOS in the West out of 24 teams. I don't disagree that they should be ranked, but their profile does not place them higher than 7th in the West. There are more criteria than just H2H. SOS is important, when you are next to the last in the region on SOS, it is really hard to justify a ranking of second. See my West rankings when they are published on D3WH for my computer's take on the rankings.

I think the West committee has grossly undervalued strength of schedule.

Check common opponent's Prof...

I'll have to look at secondary criteria for NU/Platty, but otherwise, I'm pretty good with these rankings.

And let us be clear: the USCHO poll means absolutely nothing. Zip, zilch, nada, nothing. let the site keep churning it out, but understand that for your own bliss, you should ignore it completely. Is anybody buying Castleton as a top-5 team in the country? Really?

Josh Carey
02-15-2011, 06:55 PM
Yes and no. The Eastern rankings make as much sense as one can expect from the NCAA. Aside from a few glaring head scratchers (Norwich over Plattsburgh, and Williams and Middlebury being ranked) it makes sense. I had the top 12 teams correct, just not in the exact order. That said Hobart, Geneseo, Neumann, Castleton, and Manhattanville were very difficult for me to rank. They are all so close together that I would have had no issue with any order the committee ranked these teams. For the most part I agree with the Eastern Rankings.

As for the West. The Western committee is out to lunch. Someone should call the authorities because some pretty heavy drugs have to be involved to come up with those results.

You're going to love my column when Webb gets around to putting it up. I'm just disappointed I hadn't considered MSOE. Force of habit, I suppose.

NUProf
02-15-2011, 06:58 PM
Check common opponent's Prof...

I'll have to look at secondary criteria for NU/Platty, but otherwise, I'm pretty good with these rankings.

And let us be clear: the USCHO poll means absolutely nothing. Zip, zilch, nada, nothing. let the site keep churning it out, but understand that for your own bliss, you should ignore it completely. Is anybody buying Castleton as a top-5 team in the country? Really?

I'll be interested in your analysis of the West, because my computer doesn't look at common opponents...

I'm a big believer in SOS metrics as revealing quality, which is the way I built my program.

I still can't see Adrian and MSOE separated that far.