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  • NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

    It's that time of year again. It's time to project the NCAA Rankings and Tournament field.

    At this point, the regional rankings are pretty cut and dry as there seems to be a fairly logical order and not too many close calls. The west much tighter than the east though.

    East
    1- RIT
    2- Plattsburgh
    3- Norwich
    4- Amherst
    5- Elmira
    6- Middlebury
    7- Trinity
    8- Manhattanville
    9- Neumann

    West
    1- Wis. River Falls
    2- Gustavus Adolphus
    3- Wis. Superior
    4- Wis. Eau Claire
    5- Adrian
    6- Lake Forest

    Now lets take the Pool A teams.
    ECAC East- Norwich
    ECAC West- RIT
    NESCAC- Middlebury
    NCHA- UWRF
    MIAC- GAC

    Next we look at the Pool C field.

    East- Plattsburgh and Amherst
    West- UWS and UWEC

    This turns out to be Plattsburgh and Amherst as they both beat out UWS in the criteria.

    So, the field is set with a 5/2 split

    East
    1- RIT
    2- Plattsburgh
    3- Norwich
    4- Amherst
    5- Middlebury

    West
    1- UWRF
    2- GAC

    Which sets up the following

    RIT- BYE
    Amherst @ Norwich
    GAC @ UWRF
    Middlebury @ Plattsburgh

    Let the fun begin.....

  • #2
    Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

    Seems about right, now what happens when River Falls loses in the O'brien cup?


    About time for that one really annoying girl to show up and tell you how wrong you are as well!
    Last edited by gojackets; 02-06-2011, 11:10 PM.
    UWS Ladyjackets

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    NCHA Tournament Champs: 2008
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    • #3
      Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

      Originally posted by gojackets View Post
      Seems about right, now what happens when River Falls loses in the O'brien cup?
      Assuming every other top team wins, then it would look something like this.

      UWRF-BYE
      NCHA Champ @ GAC
      Middlebury @ RIT
      Norwich @ Plattsburgh

      UWRF would get the 1st Pool C spot and Plattsburgh would pick up the 2nd.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

        I don't think Lake Forest belongs as #6 they haven't played well enough for that in my eyes. I would take CUW or St. Norbert over Lake Forest personally and quite possibly St. Mary's, St. Thomas or Bethel
        Voice of UWRF Athletics 2007-
        Voice of River Falls High School Athletics 2007-
        Green Bay Bullfrogs Baseball-2010
        Eau Claire Express Baseball-2011

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        • #5
          Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

          Originally posted by Matt Rennell View Post
          Assuming every other top team wins, then it would look something like this.

          UWRF-BYE
          NCHA Champ @ GAC
          Middlebury @ RIT
          Norwich @ Plattsburgh

          UWRF would get the 1st Pool C spot and Plattsburgh would pick up the 2nd.
          If thats the case do they fly east or west for the semis and finals?
          Voice of UWRF Athletics 2007-
          Voice of River Falls High School Athletics 2007-
          Green Bay Bullfrogs Baseball-2010
          Eau Claire Express Baseball-2011

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          • #6
            Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

            Originally posted by FALCONSANNOUNCER View Post
            If thats the case do they fly east or west for the semis and finals?
            In this scenario, given that it would require UWRF to lose, the FF would be held at RIT if they beat Middlebury IMO.

            That being said, if the season ended today I have UWRF ranked ahead of RIT in the criteria meaing they would host. The reason being is UWRF has a significant advantage in SOS while RIT's edge in Win% is minimal. That said, the upcoming games against Finlandia and Marian are certainly going to close the gap in SOS. RIT will also face Elmira again and then PSU or Elmira in the ECAC's. UWRF isn't going to have the opportunity to increase their SOS with their remaining games. So, while as of today I have UWRF as being the top ranked team based on the numbers, I fully expect that to change even if both teams win out, because the lead UWRF has in SOS is going to shrink significantly.

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            • #7
              Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

              Originally posted by FALCONSANNOUNCER View Post
              I don't think Lake Forest belongs as #6 they haven't played well enough for that in my eyes. I would take CUW or St. Norbert over Lake Forest personally and quite possibly St. Mary's, St. Thomas or Bethel
              It's all based on the criteria, nothing too subjective about it. They have every opportunity to drop out of that spot over the next couple weeks.
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              • #8
                Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                Here is an updated look at the projected rankings as well as the NCAA field.

                East
                1- RIT
                2- Plattsburgh
                3- Middlebury
                4- Amherst
                5- Norwich
                6- Trinity
                7- Elmira
                8- Manhattanville
                9- Bowdoin

                West
                1- Wis. River Falls
                2- Gustavus Adolphus
                3- Adrian
                4- Wis. Superior
                5- Wis. Eau Claire
                6- Wis. Stevens Point

                Pool A (Based on current #1 seeds in the standings)
                Wis. River Falls
                RIT
                Amherst
                Norwich
                Gustavus Adolphus

                Pool C Teams under consideration
                East: Plattsburgh and Middlebury
                West: Adrian and Wis. Superior

                Code:
                         Adrian vs Plattsburgh
                WIN      0.7500  0           0.8043  1
                SOS      0.5105  0           0.5602  1
                Plattsburgh grabs the first Pool C bid. Next let's take a look at the final spot between Adrian and Middlebury.

                Code:
                         Adrian vs Middlebury
                WIN      0.7500  0           0.8158  1
                SOS      0.5105  0           0.5469  1
                Middlebury takes the final spot for the NCAA field.

                *For the record, if you give Middlebury the NESCAC title and compare Amherst against Adrian the results stay the same.

                Which gives us....

                East
                1- RIT
                2- Plattsburgh
                3- Middlebury
                4- Amherst
                5- Norwich

                West
                1- Wis. River Falls
                2- Gustavus Adolphus

                NCAA Quarterfinals
                RIT- BYE
                Norwich @ Plattsburgh
                Amherst @ Middlebury
                GAC @ UWRF

                Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed. If they lose to GAC, hosting rights would go to RIT.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                  Originally posted by Matt Rennell View Post
                  Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed. If they lose to GAC, hosting rights would go to RIT.
                  Would be awesome, but don't see it. Really the only way I see the FF going west again is if both RIT and UWRF were to lose in their conference tourney's. That would put 3 west teams in and River Falls would probably still be #1 over all.
                  UWS Ladyjackets

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                  • #10
                    Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                    Originally posted by Matt Rennell View Post
                    Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed.
                    You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


                    Powers &8^]

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                    • #11
                      Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                      Originally posted by LtPowers View Post
                      You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


                      Powers &8^]
                      see last year when they flew three teams to St Peter, MN. They had no choice last year, this year they have a choice, so I don't see it happening...eventhough it would be ludicrous to go undefeated and not host. I remember people being all up in arms about it when that scenario arose when Plattsburgh went undefeated.


                      That's quite the run-on sentence!
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                      • #12
                        Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                        Originally posted by LtPowers View Post
                        You think the NCAA is gonna fly three teams to Wisconsin, instead of flying one team and busing two to Rochester?


                        Powers &8^]
                        If River Falls is undefeated still, you almost have to give it to them.

                        Plus, it would knock out the 1 in every four west FF right off the bat with a team that has earned the right to host it if they are still unbeaten.
                        The Poster Formerly Known as Purple_and_Gold10©
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                        • #13
                          Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                          Originally posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
                          If River Falls is undefeated still, you almost have to give it to them.

                          Plus, it would knock out the 1 in every four west FF right off the bat with a team that has earned the right to host it if they are still unbeaten.
                          I said that a long time ago....if they bring it River Falls this year they won't be forced to bring it out west again until like 2018.
                          UWS Ladyjackets

                          NCHA League Champions: 2001, 2004, 2007, 2008
                          NCHA Tournament Champs: 2008
                          Frozen Four Participants: 2008

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                          • #14
                            Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                            this year will have the most upsets in conference play ever. no one is a lock to advance.

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                            • #15
                              Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

                              I know nothing is a lock, but I think it very possible that GAC could lose their championship. Lets say for instance St. Thomas wins the MIAC.

                              Is there a chance for things to look like this?

                              NCAA Quarterfinals
                              UWRF- BYE
                              Norwich @ RIT
                              Amherst @ Middlebury
                              GAC @ St. Thomas

                              UWRF to host?

                              I'm just being curious. Is there a possibility for two MIAC teams and what would have to happen for GAC to lose and get a Pool C bid?
                              Voice of UWRF Athletics 2007-
                              Voice of River Falls High School Athletics 2007-
                              Green Bay Bullfrogs Baseball-2010
                              Eau Claire Express Baseball-2011

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