WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

[moose97]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

Just FYI, the CHHA is your friend...

[altazo]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Top to bottom, the WCHA is the toughest (read: not necessarily the best) conference in the last decade. HE is right up there. CCHA is probably a close third to HE, but far from WCHA, if that makes sense.

Yeah, that's what I said. No need to bold font it.

And while a couple of the very best programs in the land live in HE, I've always thought that conference is a little too top heavy...

75,000 posts? Really?

[Rich]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Would you consider this prediction to be a homer pick?

I can see how many people would, but I don't. I begin my work using an algorithm that I've developed over the past 15 years of making these predictions, and it takes into account the #games returning at each position, F # points and goals returning, %F goals and pts. returning, depth of scoring, and a half dozen other variables. There were some pretty obvious trends in the numbers that would be obvious to any passing observer of the WCHA - SCSU, UMD, and UND were way ahead as the top 3. No surprise there. Mankato, UAA, and MTU were at the bottom. No surprise there either. So I think that there's no question to anyone who knows anything about the league that CC, DU, MN, and UW will be picked to be in the middle.
Now, when I ran the numbers (and just looked at what they lost), UW clearly was well below that middle group - they actually were placed down with MTU, Mankato, and UAA. However, they're such an anomaly that I didn't put much weight in the numbers. I spent a lot of time looking at them in detail, and I decided that the numbers are actually pretty reasonable - therefore the middle group becomes CC, DU, and MN. So just stopping there I think you can see that CC at somewhere from 4-6 is justified by the process I used. You can certainly disagree and say that the process is messed up and come up with a different rating, but they're there simply because the numbers put them there. What numbers?
Just for one example, they were high in terms of a statistic I have called "proven WCHA scorers". This represents the amount of scorers who meet certain criteria from last season. This metric looked like this:
SCSU - 8
UND - 8
UMD - 6
CC - 6
MN - 4
DU - 4
UW - 3
MTU - 3
MSU-M - 2
UAA - 2

Another metric has to do with returning games played by defensemen - again, CC only lost 2 defensemen from last year's team so they finished high there. They were very high for returning goaltenders. They were low (6th) on a stat that I have labeled "scoring explosiveness". And so on.

In the end, I think that any ranking that makes any justifiable sense is going to have a clear top 3 (UND, SCSU, UMD), a clear bottom (UAA, MTU, and MSU-M), and a clear middle (MN, DU, CC). UW is an anomaly - it'll be interesting to see how they do with so many freshmen in the lineup. I fall into the camp that says that says that even though they have a lot of very talented freshmen coming in, freshmen take time to adjust to playing at this level. I think they'll struggle. For that reason, I think that 4-6 is a reasonable place for CC to fall, and I think that MN is just a hair back from CC and DU. Therefore - 4/5. If you're going to make a "homer" accusation for that ranking, I think that the justification has to be that they should be ranked 6th or 7th behind MN and/or UW, and with how close the middle of the WCHA is each year, I think that's a pretty small distinction.

I certainly could be wrong, but I think that CC's ranking like all the others was thouroughly considered according to the available data. However, things always happen that make all of these pre-season rankings - thoroughly considered or not - look pretty stupid when the season's over.

[SJHovey]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Yeah, that's what I said. No need to bold font it.

And while a couple of the very best programs in the land live in HE, I've always thought that conference is a little too top heavy...

75,000 posts? Really?

Not yet. You're going to have to give Brent until noon.

You may very well be right that WCHA fans, including myself, have underestimated UNO.

I predicted they'd finish 8th, which would put them just under .500 in the league schedule if the conference plays out as it has in the past.

UNO has finished 15 games under .500 in CCHA play in the past decade, 2 games under in the last 5 years, and 6 games under in the past 3 years (which would include this season's seniors). I just concluded, as have others, that the WCHA has been slightly stronger than the CCHA top to bottom.

Blais is certainly one of the top coaches in the land and if anyone can lead the Mavs to a surprise finish, it'll be Dean. I also think this will be a bit of a down year for the WCHA with all the defections, so UNO and BSU have that going for them as well.

Edit: I knew there was one more reason for my ranking. UNO has also drawn a pretty tough cluster, with SCSU and UND considered two of the top 3 teams going into the season. They have to play the 3rd, UMD, on the road, as well as Minnesota, no easy task. Finally, they have to go to UAA, which as UNO certainly knows, is no easy trip.

[Flashy Man]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

T8/9/10 MTU

MTU was by far the worst team in the league last year with a 4-24 record in league play. They lost their games by an average score of 4-2. They only return 2 forwards who can be expected to score regularly – all of the remaining forwards COMBINED scored 16 goals in 36 games. That’s just appallingly bad. I can’t see how they’ll find a way to improve.

This about the same story heading into 2006-2007 where Tech finished 7-25-6 the previous season and then jumped to 18-17-5. And I would venture to say Olson and Baker are much stronger scorers than Helminen and Shelast were. The the rest of the returning players only managed 20 goals in 38 games in 2005-2006. I feel the story this season, especially with a jump start of an extra 5 games on everyone could lead to a finish in the 6-8 area. The team has removed a distraction (Soley) and upgraded production with the entrance of Furne and Holmberg and Gordic's return after a medical redshirt season.

[Rich]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I think a lot of you may be underestimating Nebraska-Omaha. I've always felt the WCHA has been the toughest conference top to bottom, but you could make an argument that the top half of the CCHA is on par with the top half of the W. Over the last 10 years, UNO has generally been in that top half. Plus, the only coach I can think of off the top of my head that I would take over Dean Blais if I could have anyone and I was starting a D1 program would be Jerry York (and mayyybe Red Berenson, just 'cause he's so old school and because of his ties to the USDT program.) It'll be inetersting...

It means nothing, but what the heck:

1- SCSU
2- UND
3- UMD
4- UNO
5- UM
6- UW
7- CC
8- DU
9- BSU
10- AA
11- MSU
12- MTU

I think that UNO will be good next year, and probably will be one of the top half teams in the league. However, they are in an absolutely killer cluster with SCSU, UND, and BSU. Even if they're the 4th or 5th best team in the league next season, they could still go 3-5, 2-6, 1-7, or even 0-8 against UND and SCSU. However they do, their schedule will certainly knock them down in the final league standings. Whoever put together the schedule sure gave both BSU and UNO one heck of a welcome to the league!

[altazo]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I agree. I'm not saying UNO is gonna come in and take a title, but I see them as a middle of the pack team. They'll be fired up to show they can compete in a new league, they've got a good fan base who should be fired up as well, they have strong USHL ties and are located in the hub of that conference, and they have a very good coach with lots of WCHA experience.

As for traveling to Anchorage, you're right, should be no big deal after years of doing the haul up to Fairbanks.

[Turk 77]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I agree. I'm not saying UNO is gonna come in and take a title, but I see them as a middle of the pack team. They'll be fired up to show they can compete in a new league, they've got a good fan base who should be fired up as well, they have strong USHL ties and are located in the hub of that conference, and they have a very good coach with lots of WCHA experience.

As for traveling to Anchorage, you're right, should be no big deal after years of doing the haul up to Fairbanks.

I think they will be a good addition to the WCHA

[Puck Swami]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

The UNO and BSU players have played plenty of WCHA teams, but they haven't faced the intense top-to-bottom level of competition like this on a weekly basis, and they haven't faced these WCHA teams with league points on the line, either.

The "meatgrinder" element of the schedule takes its toll on most WCHA teams, and while BSU and UNO have talented players and coaches, most of us are surmising that year one in the league will be a difficult adjustment.

[The Rube]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Yeah, that's what I said. No need to bold font it.

And while a couple of the very best programs in the land live in HE, I've always thought that conference is a little too top heavy...

75,000 posts? Really?

I wasn't disagreeing with you. The bolding was for the other yahoos out there. And Hovey, kiss my grits.

Yep.

Don't mention USCHO's version of Godwin's Law.

[scsutommyboy]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

But, finishing in the top half of arguably one of the top two leagues in the country more than half of the years that the program has been in existence is a pretty impressive feat if you ask me. No?

Not in the WCHA. If you don't win national championships you get no respect.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

This about the same story heading into 2006-2007 where Tech finished 7-25-6 the previous season and then jumped to 18-17-5. And I would venture to say Olson and Baker are much stronger scorers than Helminen and Shelast were. The the rest of the returning players only managed 20 goals in 38 games in 2005-2006. I feel the story this season, especially with a jump start of an extra 5 games on everyone could lead to a finish in the 6-8 area. The team has removed a distraction (Soley) and upgraded production with the entrance of Furne and Holmberg and Gordic's return after a medical redshirt season.

I agree it's possible, but the past two seasons have even left me pessimistic this summer. The recruits look solid, but the injury plague has got to be solved, and with Bangen still in charge of team conditioning... :-/

If they stay healthy, we'll see.

[Rich]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

This about the same story heading into 2006-2007 where Tech finished 7-25-6 the previous season and then jumped to 18-17-5. And I would venture to say Olson and Baker are much stronger scorers than Helminen and Shelast were. The the rest of the returning players only managed 20 goals in 38 games in 2005-2006. I feel the story this season, especially with a jump start of an extra 5 games on everyone could lead to a finish in the 6-8 area. The team has removed a distraction (Soley) and upgraded production with the entrance of Furne and Holmberg and Gordic's return after a medical redshirt season.

For every example of a team that was awful one year and finished in the top half the next, you can find 10 years where the team went from awful to awful. I think it's most likely that MTU is going to finish in the bottom 4. It's certainly possible that they could do better than that, but I think it's unlikely. Only having 2 games each against MSU-M and UAA hurts as well.

However, things always happen that make all of these pre-season rankings - thoroughly considered or not - look pretty stupid when the season's over.

[SCSU Euro]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

you honestly don't know what the heck you are talking about..... how could you even justify SCSU not being in the top 5 and Minnesota being there. Minnesota doesn't have a team this year, and SCSU didn't really lose anyone but the surfer dude. do some more research so you don't look like a tard.

GO SCSU!!!

Not sure which gives you less credibility... ignoring the fact that SCSU lost their captain and own-zone leader, or your screenname. Tough call...

I agree. I'm not saying UNO is gonna come in and take a title, but I see them as a middle of the pack team. They'll be fired up to show they can compete in a new league

You think we're not fired up to show them they were playing in the CupCake Hockey Association?

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

The Correct Prediction:

1. Minnesota-Duluth
2. North Dakota
3. St. Cloud State
4. Denver
5. Minnesota
6. Bemidji State
7. Colorado College
8. Wisconsin
9. Nebraska-Omaha
10. Minnesota State-Mankato
11. Michigan Tech (tie)
11. Alaska-Anchorage (tie)