Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Anyone notice that the USCHO PWR is different than CHN?
Significantly different around the bubble. Apparently one thinks UMass is a TUC, the other thinks Minnesota?

USCHO	CHN	Team 
1	2	Denver 
2	1	Miami 
3	3	Wisconsin 
4.3	4	Boston College 
4.6	5	North Dakota 
4.9	6.3	St. Cloud State 
7	6.6	Bemidji State 
8.3	8.3	Ferris State 
8.6	8.6	Cornell 
10	11.2	Yale 
11.3	11.8	Minnesota-Duluth 
11.6	10	Northern Michigan 
13	15	Alaska 
14	11.6	Vermont 
15	11.4	New Hampshire 
16	19.3	Michigan 
17.3	17.6	Michigan State 
17.6	19.6	Maine 
17.9	16	Boston University 
20	21	Union 
21	24.3	Colorado College 
22.3	22.3	Nebraska-Omaha 
22.6	22.6	Mass.-Lowell 
24		Minnesota 
25	24.6	RIT 
	17.3	Massachusetts

"A glitch caused 4 scores from Saturday to be switched, causing a temporary error in our Pairwise."

[ScoobyFanClub]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

"A glitch caused 4 scores from Saturday to be switched, causing a temporary error in our Pairwise."

Yeah - there's no way the Pairwise's out there should be different - unless there's a score glitch like this. The algorithm is well known at this point, and easily re-producible. So if you see differences, someone probably has a wrong score. I've seen this before - both ways.

Where you get real differences is in the interpretation of breaking ties ... and then of course, there is some margin for difference of opinion on seeding, when the committee is faced with either/or decisions. But that's pretty much it. On the Pairwise list itself, all the sites should match.

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Denver - In. 1 or 2. Going to Albany, Worcester or St. Paul.
Miami - In. 1-3. Fort Wayne.
Wisconsin - In. 1-5. Probably 3. Albany or St. Paul.
Boston College - In. 4-7. Looking to be the 1 seed in Worcester.
North Dakota - In. 4-7. Can still be a 1 seed, looking like a 2.
St. Cloud - In. 4-9. Can be a 1 seed if they win the WCHA title, or win the third place game.
Bemidji State - In. 2 seed.
--
Cornell - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely. Looking like the 3 seed in Albany.
Ferris State - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely.
Yale - Not in, but very close.
UMD - Not in. 2 wins at the F5 will do it; that means they MUST win the play-in game vs North Dakota.
NMU - Not in, but can advance even with 2 losses at the Joe.
Alaska - Not in, but close. Need there to be less than 3 "autobid" winners. They are Miami, BC and Cornell fans this weekend.
Vermont - Not in, but close. Can still be a 2 seed if they win HEA.
New Hampshire - Not in, but close. More Miami, BC and Cornell fans.

Italics are teams that are no longer playing.

At least one of these bubble teams will be knocked out. UMD is my bet. Vermont is second.

Huntsville and the AHA Champion are autobids and in the field.

Everyone else is an autobid or nothing.

[jcarter7669]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Where you get real differences is in the interpretation of breaking ties ...

I thought the tiebreakers were set? RPI being the first tiebreaker?

[unh1982]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Denver - In. 1 or 2. Going to Albany, Worcester or St. Paul.
Miami - In. 1-3. Fort Wayne.
Wisconsin - In. 1-5. Probably 3. Albany or St. Paul.
Boston College - In. 4-7. Looking to be the 1 seed in Worcester.
North Dakota - In. 4-7. Can still be a 1 seed, looking like a 2.
St. Cloud - In. 4-9. Can be a 1 seed if they win the WCHA title, or win the third place game.
Bemidji State - In. 2 seed.
--
Cornell - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely. Looking like the 3 seed in Albany.
Ferris State - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely.
Yale - Not in, but very close.
UMD - Not in. 2 wins at the F5 will do it; that means they MUST win the play-in game vs North Dakota.
NMU - Not in, but can advance even with 2 losses at the Joe.
Alaska - Not in, but close. Need there to be less than 3 "autobid" winners. They are Miami, BC and Cornell fans this weekend.
Vermont - Not in, but close. Can still be a 2 seed if they win HEA.
New Hampshire - Not in, but close. More Miami, BC and Cornell fans.

Italics are teams that are no longer playing.

At least one of these bubble teams will be knocked out. UMD is my bet. Vermont is second.

Huntsville and the AHA Champion are autobids and in the field.

Everyone else is an autobid or nothing.

you deserve a umm lets see a nobel for your efforts, well close to it , great work.

[gscott13]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

I thought the tiebreakers were set? RPI being the first tiebreaker?

priceless is certainly the authority on this, but i think, technically rpi is the tie breaker, but say those teams have played head to head 3 times and the team with the lower rpi has gone 3-0-0 in those three games, they might select the team with the lower rpi...

[bumpreader]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

UMD - Not in. 2 wins at the F5 will do it; that means they MUST win the play-in game vs North Dakota.

Not quite. Here's a way for UMD to lose the play-in game and still get in:

Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Union defeats St. Lawrence.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Brown.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Ferris State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.

Almost every game outside the WCHA tournament has to happen exactly like that though.

[WILD E WOLVERINE]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Denver - In. 1 or 2. Going to Albany, Worcester or St. Paul.
Miami - In. 1-3. Fort Wayne.
Wisconsin - In. 1-5. Probably 3. Albany or St. Paul.
Boston College - In. 4-7. Looking to be the 1 seed in Worcester.
North Dakota - In. 4-7. Can still be a 1 seed, looking like a 2.
St. Cloud - In. 4-9. Can be a 1 seed if they win the WCHA title, or win the third place game.
Bemidji State - In. 2 seed.
--
Cornell - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely. Looking like the 3 seed in Albany.
Ferris State - Not in. Can get as high as 6 overall or miss the tournament completely.
Yale - Not in, but very close.
UMD - Not in. 2 wins at the F5 will do it; that means they MUST win the play-in game vs North Dakota.
NMU - Not in, but can advance even with 2 losses at the Joe.
Alaska - Not in, but close. Need there to be less than 3 "autobid" winners. They are Miami, BC and Cornell fans this weekend.
Vermont - Not in, but close. Can still be a 2 seed if they win HEA.
New Hampshire - Not in, but close. More Miami, BC and Cornell fans.

Italics are teams that are no longer playing.

At least one of these bubble teams will be knocked out. UMD is my bet. Vermont is second.

Huntsville and the AHA Champion are autobids and in the field.

Everyone else is an autobid or nothing.

Has there been discussion of eliminating the consolation games? They can have such a huge impact both positive and negative and since not all leagues have them..or should all leagues have them? I remember when HE had them and I always thought it was a waste of a game - this was when the NCAA was only 12 teams so less of an impact, but seems like things should be consistent now. I'm sure it's up to each league, but they should all get together on this.

[WildcatGoal]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

I would sure like to see NMU going to Fort Wayne. Is that an option?

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

priceless is certainly the authority on this, but i think, technically rpi is the tie breaker, but say those teams have played head to head 3 times and the team with the lower rpi has gone 3-0-0 in those three games, they might select the team with the lower rpi...

2007. St. Lawrence, UMass, Maine. UMass had won 4 straight games over Maine AND won the comparisons over both, and was still given the 4 seed behind SLU and Maine. I remember a lot of us had that wrong, because we broke ties H2H or by comparisons, but it's straight RPI.

[NMU8405]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

I would sure like to see NMU going to Fort Wayne. Is that an option?

Id rather see Northern in St Paul. Just got to win a game this weekend, and Northern should be a lock, unless we win the CCHA and give other bubble teams heart attacks.

And Ive also become a BC, Cornell, Denver/Wisconsin/St Clood fan for the weekend.

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Not quite. Here's a way for UMD to lose the play-in game and still get in:

Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Union defeats St. Lawrence.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Brown.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Ferris State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.

Almost every game outside the WCHA tournament has to happen exactly like that though.

Grumble. I rewrote that section but pasted the wrong one. UMD really has to win one game at the F5, 2 to be comfortable.

[WILD E WOLVERINE]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Id rather see Northern in St Paul. Just got to win a game this weekend, and Northern should be a lock, unless we win the CCHA and give other bubble teams heart attacks. Anything to keep UNH out.

And Ive also become a BC, Cornell, Denver/Wisconsin/St Clood fan for the weekend.

Pretty sure if you root for BC, Cornell, and Wisconsin that UNH will be in - must be that Black Bear for life thing that has you tripped up

[uwbadgers14]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

bracketology gives me a headache...... i'm glad UW isn't on the bubble this year because i just don't have the energy to play out all the ways they could get in... so to the boys on the team, thanks for playing hard all year and avoiding this headache that is the bubble teams.. hahaha i guess those .0002 workout shirts i the offseason worked...

[unh1982]

Re: Bracketology and the PairWise Rankings II

Pretty sure if you root for BC, Cornell, and Wisconsin that UNH will be in - must be that Black Bear for life thing that has you tripped up

Id rather see Northern in St Paul. Just got to win a game this weekend, and Northern should be a lock, unless we win the CCHA and give other bubble teams heart attacks. Anything to keep UNH out.

And Ive also become a BC, Cornell, Denver/Wisconsin/St Clood fan for the weekend.

what a dufus , please by all means root for bc cornell wis st cloud , even root for bu to win it all , or for that matter uvm to win it all . they still get in ... guess i might as well root for BU.