Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The definitive tournament selection thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The definitive tournament selection thread

    Yay symmetry in thread titles! Since we're within locking range in the tournament speculation thread, I figured I'd create this separate discussion. I've seen a lot of questions over why did X happen from good intentioned people who just want information (and don't have the time to scroll through 20 pages of new posts in the last 48 hours in the other thread to get it), I wanted to have everything clearly identified in the first post of a new thread.

    So let's answer some common questions.

    1) Why is St. Norbert playing on Wednesday?

    Geographic proximity and an oddly shaped bracket.

    Because the NCAA is a bunch of cheap ********, they don't want to spend any more money on D3 athletics than they have to. So they have created a rule that teams can not fly for the quarterfinals or opening round game. Except they've arbitrarily set the number of miles a team can travel without flying at 500 miles.

    This creates a problem in the case of Adrian, who is only within 500 miles of two western teams outside of the MCHA: St. Norbert and Stevens Point. And now you should be seeing where this is going. By putting St. Norbert against Adrian, the NCAA assures what might be the only way to not fly Adrian this tournament. If the Bulldogs lose to the Green Knights, the NCAA only needs to fly one team for the entire tournament.

    2) Why is this a crock?

    Well several reasons.

    A) The 500 mile rule is arbitrary. The NCAA could just as easily say the allowable radius is 531 miles. Or 427. All which would have different effects on the bracket.

    B) The NCAA calculation might be screwy. Google Maps says Adrian could drive to Oswego, the NCAa calculation disagrees.

    C) The NCAA could have sent Adrian to Elmira and had the winner play Norwich and had the same flight possibilities while getting St. Norbert - the #3 overall seed in the tournament - a bye to the quarterfinals.

    C.ii) The corollary to this is that maybe the NCAA calculation is flawed or ignored, or rounded and that the 499.0 miles listed from Adrian to Elmira (seriously) eliminated that option. Likewise, that might be campus-to-campus distances (I think they are) and Elmira's off-campus rink might have required that have a flight as a result.

    C.iii) The NCAA has a rule saying one team gets into the postseason tournament for every 6.5 that play the sport. This "access ratio" is arbitrary and results in an awkward 11 team tournament. With 3 automatic qualifiers in the west and 5 in the east, it makes a 7-4 split likely (2 eastern pool C teams and 1 western Pool C team mirrors the ratio of teams in those regions). Without cross-regionalizing any teams, that means, with the NCAA's flight rules, either all four western teams get a bye to the quarterfinals (last year) or all four play down to one team in the opening round (this year). That screws either the W1 seed or the E2 seed, depending on how you slice it. This year it was the western seed's turn.

    C.iv) What makes this most ironic is that next year, when the tournament is held out west, three teams could fly from the east. This happened in 2007 and is happening with the women's tournament.

    3) Why did Elmira get in over Manhattanville?

    Ironically, because the committee did something right for a change.

    The criteria for Pool B states that the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier gets a bid. "Best" is defined as having the best comparisons in the NCAA selection criteria.

    In the past, this bid has gone to the ECAC-West tournament champion, seemingly independently of what the criteria stated. So when Manhattanville won the ECAC-West tournament on Saturday, most prognosticators moved the Valiants into the tournament. However, here is the final comparison between Elmira and Manhattanville (based on the last publised ranked teams).

    Code:
     Elmira vs Manhattanville
    WIN      0.6731  0           0.7500  1
    OWP      0.5548  1           0.4795  0
    OOP      0.5064  0           0.5109  1
    H2H     2- 2- 0  0          2- 2- 0  0
    COP    12- 4- 0  0         12- 2- 1  1
    RNK     5- 6- 1  1          3- 5- 1  0
    Remember, SOS is actually one comparison. When weighing WIN against SOS, the only real difference is in RNK, where Elmira holds a steady advantage. Based on how the criteria has been weighted in the past, Elmira should have been a clear winner, even after the championship loss. The fact this may be the first time the committee did this correctly is what threw people off. But again, I was pointing out to not discount Elmira as of yesterday afternoon.

    4) How does the NCAA justify all this?

    New article on the vision of Division-III at NCAA.org

    5) How can I complain productively?

    Post on the USCHO.com message board. Wait, no, that's the opposite of productive.

    You could Call the NCAA.

    Contacting your favorite school's Sports Information Department and asking if there are any avenues you could pursue is an option. Also, if you are at a (western school) without a hockey program, you could lobby to have hockey added, which in the long run could alleviate some of the issues that happen with the current system.
    Last edited by Josh Carey; 03-08-2010, 08:47 AM.
    2010 D-III NCAA Tournament Pick'em Champion (Perfect Bracket)
    2008-09 USCHO MIAC Correspondent
    2007-09 WGSU Geneseo Play-by-play announcer
    Bracketologist For That Other Site

  • #2
    Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

    Josh

    You should have compared Elmira to Manhattanville to Salem St to Fitchburg St.

    This would have been a much fairer implementation of Pool B instead of "Adrianizing" the MASCAC.
    CCT '77 & '78
    4 kids
    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
    - Benjamin Franklin

    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

      Originally posted by Josh Carey View Post
      3) Why did Manhattanville get in over Elmira?
      They did???
      Oswego State 1980 Grad
      (attended in one way or another from 1968-1988, don't ask..... )

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

        Originally posted by joecct View Post
        Josh

        You should have compared Elmira to Manhattanville to Salem St to Fitchburg St.

        This would have been a much fairer implementation of Pool B instead of "Adrianizing" the MASCAC.
        Sure.

        Code:
            Fitchburg State vs Salem State
        WIN      0.7400  1           0.6250  0
        OWP      0.4654  0           0.4990  1
        OOP      0.4752  0           0.4760  1
        H2H     1- 3- 0  0          3- 1- 0  1
        COP    15- 2- 0  1         10- 3- 4  0
        RNK     0- 1- 1  0          0- 1- 0  0
        ============================================
        PTS              2                   3
        Not that I know who wins that. Salem based on H2H, I guess?

        Code:
            Fitchburg State vs Manhattanville
        WIN      0.7400  0           0.7500  1
        OWP      0.4654  0           0.4795  1
        OOP      0.4752  0           0.5109  1
        H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        COP     1- 0- 0  0          1- 0- 0  0
        RNK     0- 1- 1  0          3- 5- 1  1
        ============================================
        PTS              0                   4
        That is clearly M'ville though.

        Code:
           Elmira vs Fitchburg State
        WIN      0.6731  0           0.7400  1
        OWP      0.5548  1           0.4654  0
        OOP      0.5064  1           0.4752  0
        H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        RNK     5- 6- 1  1          0- 1- 1  0
        ============================================
        PTS              3                   1
        Clearly Elmira based on SOS and RNK.

        Code:
            Elmira vs Salem State
        WIN      0.6731  1           0.6250  0
        OWP      0.5548  1           0.4990  0
        OOP      0.5064  1           0.4760  0
        H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        RNK     5- 6- 1  0          0- 1- 0  0
        ============================================
        PTS              3                   0
        Again, clearly Elmira.

        Code:
           Manhattanville vs Salem State
        WIN      0.7500  1           0.6250  0
        OWP      0.4795  0           0.4990  1
        OOP      0.5109  1           0.4760  0
        H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
        RNK     3- 5- 1  0          0- 1- 0  0
        ============================================
        PTS              2                   1
        And probably M'ville.

        So there, the MASCAC not seriously being considered for Pool B is based in the criteria as well.
        2010 D-III NCAA Tournament Pick'em Champion (Perfect Bracket)
        2008-09 USCHO MIAC Correspondent
        2007-09 WGSU Geneseo Play-by-play announcer
        Bracketologist For That Other Site

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

          Originally posted by ColdInRomney View Post
          They did???
          I have no idea what you're talking about.
          2010 D-III NCAA Tournament Pick'em Champion (Perfect Bracket)
          2008-09 USCHO MIAC Correspondent
          2007-09 WGSU Geneseo Play-by-play announcer
          Bracketologist For That Other Site

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

            Originally posted by Josh Carey View Post
            I have no idea what you're talking about.
            The "quote" feature doesn't lie!



            Last edited by Josh Carey : Today at 09:47 AM.
            Oswego State 1980 Grad
            (attended in one way or another from 1968-1988, don't ask..... )

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

              All I want is it out in the open that the MASCAC did not deserve a Pool B bid. Thanks for the comparisons.
              CCT '77 & '78
              4 kids
              5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
              - Benjamin Franklin

              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                Thanks Josh. Nice explained very well

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                  I'll second the good job, while they all aren't "answers" it is well written and honest attempt to plausible "reasons"/"excuses", BTW - IMO - many ARE answers.

                  Also, the bracket is now up on the NCAA site.

                  The championship game will be televised live on CBS College Sports Network Saturday, March 20, at 5 p.m. Eastern.
                  Last edited by norm1909; 03-08-2010, 01:02 PM.
                  Larry Normandin
                  SUNY Cobleskill '83-SUNY Plattsburgh '00

                  Temper is one thing you can't get rid of by losing it.

                  God gave everyone patience-The wise use it.

                  Trust is like paper - Once crumbled it can never again be perfect.

                  Twitter w/ Bob Emery

                  WIRY (Windows Player)
                  WIRY (Chrome/Android Player)

                  Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demand!

                  Pen pals

                  D3HOCKEY.com

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                    Originally posted by Josh Carey View Post

                    3) Why did Elmira get in over Manhattanville?

                    Ironically, because the committee did something right for a change.

                    The criteria for Pool B...
                    I agree they followed the criteria, and I'm aware ECAC-W has no AQ, so I'm not critiquing your analysis. I just wanna say that as a fan--of the sport, not of either team--it galls me to see the team that got beat in their conference tournament get in over the team that beat them. Hate it, hate it, hate it, hate it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                      Originally posted by BulldogProf View Post
                      I agree they followed the criteria, and I'm aware ECAC-W has no AQ, so I'm not critiquing your analysis. I just wanna say that as a fan--of the sport, not of either team--it galls me to see the team that got beat in their conference tournament get in over the team that beat them. Hate it, hate it, hate it, hate it.
                      I have to agree with Bulldog. M'Ville did everything right and won. I know the conference didn't have an AQ, but I'm sure the Valiants were motivated by the fact that winning would get them a ticket to the tourney.
                      Twitter: DanMountSports
                      2013-14 DIII T.O.P. NIT Champion

                      2010-2011 Interlock LPS Co-Champion

                      Well, I'm going to do a farewell tour of upstate New York, hellholes like Plattsburgh. Fred Armisen as Gov. Paterson

                      "There's no point in being grown up if you can't be childish sometimes." - The Doctor (Tom Baker)

                      Team I Like NFL: BUF NBA: NYK MLB: SEA NHL: NYR College Hockey: Clarkson (DI) Oswego (D3) Soccer: USA, Man United, Rangers (newco and all), Scotland NCAAF & B: SU

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                        Originally posted by MountieBoyOz View Post
                        I have to agree with Bulldog. M'Ville did everything right and won. I know the conference didn't have an AQ, but I'm sure the Valiants were motivated by the fact that winning would get them a ticket to the tourney.
                        I think it should have too.

                        But their patsy cake OOC schedule bit them in the arse.

                        Your reap what you sew and Elmira played a very difficult OOC and picked up some nice results to boot in it.
                        The Poster Formerly Known as Purple_and_Gold10©
                        "The Prezidential Three - Elmira, Oswego, Norwich" © Joecct
                        GO EAGLES!!! R.I.P. L.H. #4 In our hearts forever
                        GO LAKERS!!!
                        GO CADETS!!! R.I.P. Charlie Crosby '63
                        "Reisweber trying to circle in front of the net, he does, HE SCORES! that's it! Oswego State has done it!! The Lakers take home the first NCAA title of any kind in school history. It's celebration time in Upstate New York!"
                        Oswego State '09

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                          Originally posted by PrezdeJohnson09 View Post
                          I think it should have too.

                          But their patsy cake OOC schedule bit them in the arse.

                          Your reap what you sew and Elmira played a very difficult OOC and picked up some nice results to boot in it.
                          I do agree with you on that fact, Prez. I hope they learn from it. Maybe they will decide to go to Oswego or Plattsburgh.
                          Twitter: DanMountSports
                          2013-14 DIII T.O.P. NIT Champion

                          2010-2011 Interlock LPS Co-Champion

                          Well, I'm going to do a farewell tour of upstate New York, hellholes like Plattsburgh. Fred Armisen as Gov. Paterson

                          "There's no point in being grown up if you can't be childish sometimes." - The Doctor (Tom Baker)

                          Team I Like NFL: BUF NBA: NYK MLB: SEA NHL: NYR College Hockey: Clarkson (DI) Oswego (D3) Soccer: USA, Man United, Rangers (newco and all), Scotland NCAAF & B: SU

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                            Originally posted by BulldogProf View Post
                            I agree they followed the criteria, and I'm aware ECAC-W has no AQ, so I'm not critiquing your analysis. I just wanna say that as a fan--of the sport, not of either team--it galls me to see the team that got beat in their conference tournament get in over the team that beat them. Hate it, hate it, hate it, hate it.
                            Looking it as just as a fan of the sport, I agree with you and was hoping Manhattanville would get in.

                            However, what would you have said if say Lebanon Valley turned their season around with their new coach, ran the table, and miraculously won the ECAC West tournament? Sure, if this was an AQ conference they would get in, but since it's not, could you accept them getting the Pool B bid based on what you wrote above? (And let's not complicate matters by bringing in the MASCAC, okay Joe? )
                            Russell Jaslow
                            [Former] SUNYAC Correspondent
                            U.S. College Hockey Online

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The definitive tournament selection thread

                              Originally posted by MountieBoyOz View Post
                              I do agree with you on that fact, Prez. I hope they learn from it. Maybe they will decide to go to Oswego or Plattsburgh.
                              Like i said in another thread.

                              It is to my understanding that Oswego has no desire to schedule Manhattanville.
                              The Poster Formerly Known as Purple_and_Gold10©
                              "The Prezidential Three - Elmira, Oswego, Norwich" © Joecct
                              GO EAGLES!!! R.I.P. L.H. #4 In our hearts forever
                              GO LAKERS!!!
                              GO CADETS!!! R.I.P. Charlie Crosby '63
                              "Reisweber trying to circle in front of the net, he does, HE SCORES! that's it! Oswego State has done it!! The Lakers take home the first NCAA title of any kind in school history. It's celebration time in Upstate New York!"
                              Oswego State '09

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X