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Josh Carey
02-28-2010, 06:36 AM
So, in the range of October and November, a lot of predictions about the upcoming hockey season fly around. A recent questioning of my preseason praise for Manhattanville made me think it'd be amusing to take a look back and how we all did in the beginning of the year. Dig up amusing/ridiculous quotes and predictions (I've got dozens - UMD will roll through the MASCAC), and throw them here.

But the biggest preseason buzz comes around the USCHO.com Poll. Here's what the poll looked like on October 26th.


Team (First Place) Record Pts Last Year
1 Plattsburgh ( 5) 24- 2-2 253 1
2 Neumann ( 9) 21- 9-2 245 12
3 Wis.-Stout ( 1) 23- 6-2 217 2
4 Wis.-Superior ( 1) 23- 4-3 178 3
5 Hobart ( 1) 21- 7-2 162 6
6 Adrian ( 1) 27- 1-1 159 7
7 Middlebury 19- 7-1 154 9
8 Oswego ( 1) 18- 8-1 150 11
9 Amherst 22- 5-1 145 4
10 Gustavus Adolphus 19-11-0 135 15
11 St. Norbert 19- 8-1 132 14
12 Manhattanville ( 1) 16- 4-5 127 10
13 St. Scholastica 20- 7-2 106 5
14 Elmira 16- 8-3 93 8
15 Norwich 13- 8-4 70 NR

Others Receiving Votes: Wis.-River Falls 14, Curry 10,
Hamline 10, St. Thomas 10, Nichols 7, Babson 5,
New England College 5, Wis.-Stevens Point 5,
Castleton 3, Mass.-Dartmouth 2, St. Olaf 2,
Wentworth 1

For comparison, here's last week's poll:


1 Norwich (11) 20-1-4 291 2
2 Oswego ( 7) 23-2-0 284 1
3 St. Norbert ( 2) 19-3-3 264 3
4 Plattsburgh 17-4-4 241 4
5 Middlebury 16-4-4 207 6
6 St. Scholastica 17-4-6 187 5
7 Gustavus Adolphus 18-5-2 178 7
8 Williams 15-5-3 136 8
9 Hamline 16-5-4 128 8
10 Bowdoin 17-5-1 122 12
11 Elmira 17-7-1 94 10
12 Adrian 22-3-0 86 11
13 Amherst 16-4-4 76 13
14 Manhattanville 18-6-1 48 14
15 Wis.-River Falls 17-8-2 39 15
Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1

Perhaps most interesting is the initial level of consistency. 11 teams appear somewhere in each of the top 15 polls (with Neumann getting votes in each). Though this might not be that surprising since nearly 20% of teams are ranked. Pick out the top 20% of employees at your company/any organization. Pretty easy to do, right?

What's interesting is that all four teams in the preseason poll who find themselves unranked now were in the top 5. Count that up as big whiffs on Stout, Superior, Neumann and Hobart. Great credit goes for getting very close on Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Gustavus, Elmira, and River Falls. Oswego, St. Norbert, St. Scholastica, and Norwich were all in the preseason poll, but much lower than they currently sit.

Indeed, I submitted a vote to that preseason poll as well. How did I do?

1 Manhattanville
2 Plattsburgh
3 St. Norbert
4 Adrian
5 Norwich
6 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Wis-Stout
8 Neumann
9 Wis-Superior
10 Middlebury
11 Elmira
12 Amherst
13 Curry
14 Mass-Dartmouth
15 Hamline

So my being tempered on the top 5 teams that didn't show up later in the season (I noted at the time I grouped them all together because I wasn't sure what direction they'd go in) is balanced by whiffs on Adrian and Manhattanville. And it turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Norwich, though my unconventional stance on SNC has paid off.

So are there any conclusions to be drawn from this? Probably not, I just thought it would amuse myself while I don't sleep. Anybody else can chime in as they so desire.

bakdraft21
02-28-2010, 11:38 AM
So, in the range of October and November, a lot of predictions about the upcoming hockey season fly around. A recent questioning of my preseason praise for Manhattanville made me think it'd be amusing to take a look back and how we all did in the beginning of the year. Dig up amusing/ridiculous quotes and predictions (I've got dozens - UMD will roll through the MASCAC), and throw them here.

But the biggest preseason buzz comes around the USCHO.com Poll. Here's what the poll looked like on October 26th.


Team (First Place) Record Pts Last Year
1 Plattsburgh ( 5) 24- 2-2 253 1
2 Neumann ( 9) 21- 9-2 245 12
3 Wis.-Stout ( 1) 23- 6-2 217 2
4 Wis.-Superior ( 1) 23- 4-3 178 3
5 Hobart ( 1) 21- 7-2 162 6
6 Adrian ( 1) 27- 1-1 159 7
7 Middlebury 19- 7-1 154 9
8 Oswego ( 1) 18- 8-1 150 11
9 Amherst 22- 5-1 145 4
10 Gustavus Adolphus 19-11-0 135 15
11 St. Norbert 19- 8-1 132 14
12 Manhattanville ( 1) 16- 4-5 127 10
13 St. Scholastica 20- 7-2 106 5
14 Elmira 16- 8-3 93 8
15 Norwich 13- 8-4 70 NR

Others Receiving Votes: Wis.-River Falls 14, Curry 10,
Hamline 10, St. Thomas 10, Nichols 7, Babson 5,
New England College 5, Wis.-Stevens Point 5,
Castleton 3, Mass.-Dartmouth 2, St. Olaf 2,
Wentworth 1

For comparison, here's last week's poll:


1 Norwich (11) 20-1-4 291 2
2 Oswego ( 7) 23-2-0 284 1
3 St. Norbert ( 2) 19-3-3 264 3
4 Plattsburgh 17-4-4 241 4
5 Middlebury 16-4-4 207 6
6 St. Scholastica 17-4-6 187 5
7 Gustavus Adolphus 18-5-2 178 7
8 Williams 15-5-3 136 8
9 Hamline 16-5-4 128 8
10 Bowdoin 17-5-1 122 12
11 Elmira 17-7-1 94 10
12 Adrian 22-3-0 86 11
13 Amherst 16-4-4 76 13
14 Manhattanville 18-6-1 48 14
15 Wis.-River Falls 17-8-2 39 15
Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1

Perhaps most interesting is the initial level of consistency. 11 teams appear somewhere in each of the top 15 polls (with Neumann getting votes in each). Though this might not be that surprising since nearly 20% of teams are ranked. Pick out the top 20% of employees at your company/any organization. Pretty easy to do, right?

What's interesting is that all four teams in the preseason poll who find themselves unranked now were in the top 5. Count that up as big whiffs on Stout, Superior, Neumann and Hobart. Great credit goes for getting very close on Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Gustavus, Elmira, and River Falls. Oswego, St. Norbert, St. Scholastica, and Norwich were all in the preseason poll, but much lower than they currently sit.

Indeed, I submitted a vote to that preseason poll as well. How did I do?

1 Manhattanville
2 Plattsburgh
3 St. Norbert
4 Adrian
5 Norwich
6 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Wis-Stout
8 Neumann
9 Wis-Superior
10 Middlebury
11 Elmira
12 Amherst
13 Curry
14 Mass-Dartmouth
15 Hamline

So my being tempered on the top 5 teams that didn't show up later in the season (I noted at the time I grouped them all together because I wasn't sure what direction they'd go in) is balanced by whiffs on Adrian and Manhattanville. And it turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Norwich, though my unconventional stance on SNC has paid off.

So are there any conclusions to be drawn from this? Probably not, I just thought it would amuse myself while I don't sleep. Anybody else can chime in as they so desire.

OUCH No Oswego in the prediction......

Ozz
02-28-2010, 07:00 PM
Oswego had one first place vote in the pre-season poll...I think someone knew something no one else knew...