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Preseason Prediction Review

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  • Preseason Prediction Review

    So, in the range of October and November, a lot of predictions about the upcoming hockey season fly around. A recent questioning of my preseason praise for Manhattanville made me think it'd be amusing to take a look back and how we all did in the beginning of the year. Dig up amusing/ridiculous quotes and predictions (I've got dozens - UMD will roll through the MASCAC), and throw them here.

    But the biggest preseason buzz comes around the USCHO.com Poll. Here's what the poll looked like on October 26th.

    Code:
       Team       (First Place)   Record   Pts  Last Year
     1 Plattsburgh         ( 5)  24- 2-2   253     1
     2 Neumann             ( 9)  21- 9-2   245    12
     3 Wis.-Stout          ( 1)  23- 6-2   217     2
     4 Wis.-Superior       ( 1)  23- 4-3   178     3
     5 Hobart              ( 1)  21- 7-2   162     6
     6 Adrian              ( 1)  27- 1-1   159     7
     7 Middlebury                19- 7-1   154     9
     8 Oswego              ( 1)  18- 8-1   150    11
     9 Amherst                   22- 5-1   145     4
    10 Gustavus Adolphus         19-11-0   135    15
    11 St. Norbert               19- 8-1   132    14
    12 Manhattanville      ( 1)  16- 4-5   127    10
    13 St. Scholastica           20- 7-2   106     5
    14 Elmira                    16- 8-3    93     8
    15 Norwich                   13- 8-4    70    NR
    
    Others Receiving Votes: Wis.-River Falls 14, Curry 10, 
    Hamline 10, St. Thomas 10, Nichols 7, Babson 5, 
    New England College 5, Wis.-Stevens Point 5, 
    Castleton 3, Mass.-Dartmouth 2, St. Olaf 2, 
    Wentworth 1
    For comparison, here's last week's poll:

    Code:
    1	Norwich	(11)	20-1-4	291	2
    2	Oswego	( 7)	23-2-0	284	1
    3	St. Norbert	( 2)	19-3-3	264	3
    4	Plattsburgh		17-4-4	241	4
    5	Middlebury		16-4-4	207	6
    6	St. Scholastica		17-4-6	187	5
    7	Gustavus Adolphus		18-5-2	178	7
    8	Williams		15-5-3	136	8
    9	Hamline		16-5-4	128	8
    10	Bowdoin		17-5-1	122	12
    11	Elmira		17-7-1	94	10
    12	Adrian		22-3-0	86	11
    13	Amherst		16-4-4	76	13
    14	Manhattanville		18-6-1	48	14
    15	Wis.-River Falls		17-8-2	39	15
    Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1
    Perhaps most interesting is the initial level of consistency. 11 teams appear somewhere in each of the top 15 polls (with Neumann getting votes in each). Though this might not be that surprising since nearly 20% of teams are ranked. Pick out the top 20% of employees at your company/any organization. Pretty easy to do, right?

    What's interesting is that all four teams in the preseason poll who find themselves unranked now were in the top 5. Count that up as big whiffs on Stout, Superior, Neumann and Hobart. Great credit goes for getting very close on Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Gustavus, Elmira, and River Falls. Oswego, St. Norbert, St. Scholastica, and Norwich were all in the preseason poll, but much lower than they currently sit.

    Indeed, I submitted a vote to that preseason poll as well. How did I do?

    1 Manhattanville
    2 Plattsburgh
    3 St. Norbert
    4 Adrian
    5 Norwich
    6 Gustavus Adolphus
    7 Wis-Stout
    8 Neumann
    9 Wis-Superior
    10 Middlebury
    11 Elmira
    12 Amherst
    13 Curry
    14 Mass-Dartmouth
    15 Hamline

    So my being tempered on the top 5 teams that didn't show up later in the season (I noted at the time I grouped them all together because I wasn't sure what direction they'd go in) is balanced by whiffs on Adrian and Manhattanville. And it turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Norwich, though my unconventional stance on SNC has paid off.

    So are there any conclusions to be drawn from this? Probably not, I just thought it would amuse myself while I don't sleep. Anybody else can chime in as they so desire.
    2010 D-III NCAA Tournament Pick'em Champion (Perfect Bracket)
    2008-09 USCHO MIAC Correspondent
    2007-09 WGSU Geneseo Play-by-play announcer
    Bracketologist For That Other Site

  • #2
    Re: Preseason Prediction Review

    Originally posted by Josh Carey View Post
    So, in the range of October and November, a lot of predictions about the upcoming hockey season fly around. A recent questioning of my preseason praise for Manhattanville made me think it'd be amusing to take a look back and how we all did in the beginning of the year. Dig up amusing/ridiculous quotes and predictions (I've got dozens - UMD will roll through the MASCAC), and throw them here.

    But the biggest preseason buzz comes around the USCHO.com Poll. Here's what the poll looked like on October 26th.

    Code:
       Team       (First Place)   Record   Pts  Last Year
     1 Plattsburgh         ( 5)  24- 2-2   253     1
     2 Neumann             ( 9)  21- 9-2   245    12
     3 Wis.-Stout          ( 1)  23- 6-2   217     2
     4 Wis.-Superior       ( 1)  23- 4-3   178     3
     5 Hobart              ( 1)  21- 7-2   162     6
     6 Adrian              ( 1)  27- 1-1   159     7
     7 Middlebury                19- 7-1   154     9
     8 Oswego              ( 1)  18- 8-1   150    11
     9 Amherst                   22- 5-1   145     4
    10 Gustavus Adolphus         19-11-0   135    15
    11 St. Norbert               19- 8-1   132    14
    12 Manhattanville      ( 1)  16- 4-5   127    10
    13 St. Scholastica           20- 7-2   106     5
    14 Elmira                    16- 8-3    93     8
    15 Norwich                   13- 8-4    70    NR
    
    Others Receiving Votes: Wis.-River Falls 14, Curry 10, 
    Hamline 10, St. Thomas 10, Nichols 7, Babson 5, 
    New England College 5, Wis.-Stevens Point 5, 
    Castleton 3, Mass.-Dartmouth 2, St. Olaf 2, 
    Wentworth 1
    For comparison, here's last week's poll:

    Code:
    1	Norwich	(11)	20-1-4	291	2
    2	Oswego	( 7)	23-2-0	284	1
    3	St. Norbert	( 2)	19-3-3	264	3
    4	Plattsburgh		17-4-4	241	4
    5	Middlebury		16-4-4	207	6
    6	St. Scholastica		17-4-6	187	5
    7	Gustavus Adolphus		18-5-2	178	7
    8	Williams		15-5-3	136	8
    9	Hamline		16-5-4	128	8
    10	Bowdoin		17-5-1	122	12
    11	Elmira		17-7-1	94	10
    12	Adrian		22-3-0	86	11
    13	Amherst		16-4-4	76	13
    14	Manhattanville		18-6-1	48	14
    15	Wis.-River Falls		17-8-2	39	15
    Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1
    Perhaps most interesting is the initial level of consistency. 11 teams appear somewhere in each of the top 15 polls (with Neumann getting votes in each). Though this might not be that surprising since nearly 20% of teams are ranked. Pick out the top 20% of employees at your company/any organization. Pretty easy to do, right?

    What's interesting is that all four teams in the preseason poll who find themselves unranked now were in the top 5. Count that up as big whiffs on Stout, Superior, Neumann and Hobart. Great credit goes for getting very close on Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Gustavus, Elmira, and River Falls. Oswego, St. Norbert, St. Scholastica, and Norwich were all in the preseason poll, but much lower than they currently sit.

    Indeed, I submitted a vote to that preseason poll as well. How did I do?

    1 Manhattanville
    2 Plattsburgh
    3 St. Norbert
    4 Adrian
    5 Norwich
    6 Gustavus Adolphus
    7 Wis-Stout
    8 Neumann
    9 Wis-Superior
    10 Middlebury
    11 Elmira
    12 Amherst
    13 Curry
    14 Mass-Dartmouth
    15 Hamline

    So my being tempered on the top 5 teams that didn't show up later in the season (I noted at the time I grouped them all together because I wasn't sure what direction they'd go in) is balanced by whiffs on Adrian and Manhattanville. And it turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Norwich, though my unconventional stance on SNC has paid off.

    So are there any conclusions to be drawn from this? Probably not, I just thought it would amuse myself while I don't sleep. Anybody else can chime in as they so desire.
    OUCH No Oswego in the prediction......

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Preseason Prediction Review

      Oswego had one first place vote in the pre-season poll...I think someone knew something no one else knew...
      Oswego'08, '10

      From the shores of Lake Ontario to the island of Hilton Head...


      2011-2012 SUNYAC Pick 'Em Champion!
      2011-2012 D3FHL Overall Points Champs!

      Comment

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