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  • ECAC- Last week of regular season

    Should be some great hockey.

    And who would have thought earlier today that the standings would look as they do. With 8 minutes left in 3rd period Yale trailed Clarkson 4-1. With 7 minutes left in the 3rd Dartmouth trailed Cornell 4-2. Yale and Dartmouth both stage furious comebacks to pull out wins, putting Yale 2 points ahead of Cornell and Union in the standings and owning the tiebreaker with both teams.

    Yale plays @ Princeton Friday and @ Quinnipiac Saturday. Yale better hope to come away from Friday's game with 2 points as the atmosphere at Quinnipiac should be crazy. For those of you who can't make it that game will be on NESN.

    Also on Friday Union will be @ Cornell. The loser of this game loses any hope of winning The Clearly Cup. In addition, looking at the PWR, it appears that the winner of this game will get a nice boost in the PWR while the loser will drop significantly. In fact, it looks like the loser of that game will need to win the ECAC Tournament in order to make the NCAAs.

    It's been a great season to date!
    -------------
    Yale University 2013 National Champs

  • #2
    Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

    Forecast for each team:

    -Yale: Clinched a bye. 2 points clinches the Cleary Cup and the #1 seed in the playoffs.
    -Cornell and Union: Clinched byes. Play each other Friday. Loser finishes 3rd.
    -RPI and Colgate: Tied for 4th. Play each other Friday. Both teams control their own destiny for 4th place, but both teams lose tiebreaker to SLU. RPI can finish no lower than 6th, Colgate no lower than 7th.
    -St. Lawrence: Can still get the bye if they sweep and neither RPI nor Colgate sweeps. Can finish between 4th and 8th.
    -Quinnipiac: Cannot get a bye. Owns tiebreaker over Colgate but RPI owns tiebreaker over the Bobcats. Will finish between 5th and 10th. 2 points gives them home ice.
    -Harvard: Can finish between 6th and 11th. 3 points gives them home ice.
    -Brown and Princeton: Can finish between 7th and 11th. Play each other Saturday. Winner of Saturday's game finishes ahead of loser.
    -Dartmouth: Can finish between 8th and 11th. Needs to sweep and get help to finish 8th.
    -Clarkson: Locked into finishing 12th. Will play @RPI, Colgate, or Quinnipiac in the 1st round.
    Colgate '09

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

      Here's a look at what needs to happen for a team to finish with its best possible playoff position.

      Also I'm pretty sure RPI can fall as low as 7th. A 0 point weekend plus a Quinnipiac sweep puts both of those teams at 22 points. RPI and QPAC split the season series, so the next tie breaker is wins. If RPI gains 0 points (and thus 0 wins) next weekend, they have 10 wins. If QPAC gains 4 points (and thus 2 wins) next weekend, they have 11 wins. So QPAC would have the tiebreaker over RPI. That would move QPAC to 5th and RPI to 6th. If St. Lawrence gains two points and moves past QPAC, that drops them to 6th and RPI to 7th. Correct? My brain is fried, I'm not a math guy so I may be wrong (and will correct the above link if I am) but this makes sense to me.
      Last edited by alslammerz; 02-21-2010, 01:09 AM. Reason: diction
      Former Harvard Hockey broadcaster on 95.3 FM and WHRB.org.
      Go Crimson!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

        I'm stealing this from the Hockey East thread. Todd did a lot of work to set this up and all I did was cannibalize it.

        Yale 30 - 34 [1-3]
        Cornell 28 - 32 [1-3]
        UC 28 - 32 [1-3]
        --- Bye Lock - 26
        Colgate 22 - 26 [4-7]
        RPI 22 - 26 [4-6]
        SLU 21 - 25 [4-8]
        --- Bye Eligible - 23
        --- Home Lock - 21
        QU 18 - 22 [5-10]
        Harvard 17 - 21 [6-11]
        Brown 16 - 20 [7-11]
        PU 16 - 20 [7-11]
        DC 14 - 18 [8-11]
        --- Home Eligible - 17
        CCT 8 - 12 [12-12]

        Remaining League Schedules:
        Yale - @PU, @QU
        Cornell - UC, RPI
        UC - @Cornell, @Colgate
        Colgate - RPI, UC
        RPI - @Colgate, @Cornell
        SLU - DC, Harvard
        QU - Brown, Yale
        Harvard - @CCT, @SLU
        Brown - @QU, @PU
        PU - Yale, Brown
        DC - @SLU, @CCT
        CCT - Harvard, DC



        Yale has reduced their magic number to 2 due to this weekend's results. Any single point guarantees them 2nd place. The only way for Yale to finish third place is for Cornell and UC to tie and then win their Saturday games while Princeton and Quinnipiac pull off the upsets. In that case, Cornell gets the Cleary Cup and the #1 seed in the tournament by virtue of the second tiebreaker (wins).

        Union can only win the Cleary Cup by ending the season alone in points (weekend sweep with Princeton maxing out at 1 point OR 3 points while Princeton gets swept and Cornell gets no more than 2 points).

        Cornell must pass Yale to take the 1 seed, but only needs to tie Union (passing Yale means that they cannot lose to Union, guaranteeing the tiebreaker win).

        Colgate can sneak into a bye with only 1 point, assuming they take it from RPI (they win the head-to-head tiebreaker) and SLU gets swept. A Friday win pushes their magic number for a bye to 2 and keeps them in control of their destiny. The Raiders can fall all the way to 7th because Quinnipiac holds the tiebreaker by sweeping the season series.

        RPI would need at least two points to get a bye. A win against Colgate on Friday guarantees that RPI finishes no lower than 5th based on tiebreakers (the head-to-head and wins tiebreakers with Colgate would be tied, but with the win over Colgate, the points against the top 4 would be a guaranteed RPI win). RPI cannot finish 7th because they swept the series against the Bobcats.

        Saint Lawrence benefits by holding tiebreakers over Colgate and Rensselaer. Therefore, any two points with a Colgate-RPI tie, and losses to both of those teams Saturday night, keeps St. Lawrence from playing hockey during the first weekend of March. A SLU sweep means that they cannot finish lower than fifth. On the other hand, SLU can drop all the way to 8th by getting swept by Harvard and Dartmouth, Harvard also beating Clarkson, and Quinnipiac getting at least 3 points. Quinnipiac swept SLU and Harvard's weekend sweep would tie the head-to-head and give them the second tiebreaker (9 wins - 8 wins). A three-way tie between SLU, Quinnipiac, and Harvard would land Quinnipiac in 6th, Harvard in 7th, and St. Lawrence in 8th.

        Quinnipiac wins every tiebreaker except those against Union and RPI (they were swept in both series) while those against Yale (moot) and Brown are still in flux, depending on the results of the upcoming weekend. Since the Bears already beat the Bobcats in December and Quinnpiac is leading in the standings by two points, if the Brown tiebreaker does come into play, then Quinnipiac loses it. Holding the tiebreaker over Dartmouth guarantees that the Bobcats cannot fall into 11th place. Beating Brown on Friday guarantees the Bobcats home-ice while a tie does not (but it would reduce the magic number to 1).

        Harvard cannot catch the Engineers or the Raiders, but would win the tiebreaker against the Saints if it does come into play. Harvard cannot lose the tiebreaker against Brown (thanks to the season split, an inability to win less games than the Bears and be tied, and their sweep of Union, which means that they would win the points vs top-4 comparison), but did lose the head-to-head battle with the Tigers. Harvard can clinch home-ice on Friday, but only with help. Harvard's season sweep of Dartmouth means that the Big Green would have to sweep this weekend in the North Country for the Crimson to fall to 11th.

        Brown holds the edge against Princeton, heading into their final weekend, by winning the tilt in Providence in December. However, if the Tigers win on Saturday in New Jersey, then Princeton would split the series and the Tigers would win the second tiebreaker (8 wins - 7 wins). Multi-way ties involving the Bears require information about how Brown gets into those ties, and who the ties are with. Since they play both Princeton and Quinnipiac this coming weekend, the number of head-to-head points can be highly variable. The good news is that Brown controls its own destiny for home-ice (a sweep distances themselves from Princeton and means that they would win an individual Quinnipiac-Brown or three-way Quinnipiac-Harvard-Brown tiebreak).

        Princeton swept the series against Dartmouth, meaning that their magic number to not finish 11th is only two points. Princeton would lose an individual tiebreaker to Quinnipiac or Brown (if Princeton does not win), but would win individual tiebreakers against Harvard, Brown (if Princeton does win), and Dartmouth. Princeton wins most multi-team tiebreaks that do not involve the Brown Bears, but lose most that do. Princeton does not control their own destiny for home-ice. However, a sure-fire way for the Tigers to win home-ice is with a sweep, if Harvard does not sweep.

        Dartmouth requires an enormous amount of help to take home-ice. Brown-Dartmouth and Quinnipiac-Brown-Dartmouth tiebreaks would work favorably, but most other multi-team tiebreaks do not. It is highly likely that Dartmouth will be on the road in March, especially since they will be headed to the North Country this coming weekend.

        Clarkson is locked into 12th place and no game results can change that. They will be headed to Hamilton, Troy, Canton, or Hamden for the first weekend in March.
        Last edited by burgie12; 02-21-2010, 03:44 AM.
        Go Red!!

        National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

        Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

          Originally posted by alslammerz View Post
          RPI and QPAC split the season series
          Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
          RPI cannot finish 7th because they swept the series against the Bobcats.
          One of these things is not like the other...
          Last edited by burgie12; 02-21-2010, 03:33 AM.
          Go Red!!

          National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

          Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

            Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
            One of these things is not like the other...
            My vote goes to you.
            sigpic

            Let's Go 'Tute!

            Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

            2012 Poser Of The Year

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            • #7
              Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

              Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
              One of these things is not like the other...
              Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
              Here we come!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                One of these things is not like the other...
                Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
                Here we come!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                  Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                  One of these things is not like the other...
                  Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
                  Here we come!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                    Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                    One of these things is not like the other...
                    Worse, I looked that up twice last night and still have no idea how I came to that conclusion.
                    Former Harvard Hockey broadcaster on 95.3 FM and WHRB.org.
                    Go Crimson!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                      Originally posted by fr joe View Post
                      Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
                      Originally posted by fr joe View Post
                      Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
                      Originally posted by fr joe View Post
                      Yes, burgie, RPI defeated Qpac twice, 4-1 and 5-3.
                      Pointing that out once would have been sufficient!

                      (I know, I know... it was the morning USCHO hiccup)
                      Quinnipiac Bobcats
                      2023 National Champions
                      ECAC Regular Season Champions: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24
                      ECAC Tournament Champions: 2016
                      East Regional: 2013 (Champions), 2014, 2016 (Champions), 2023 (Champions)
                      Northeast Regional:

                      West Regional: 2015, 2021
                      Midwest Regional: 2019, 2022
                      Frozen Four: 2013, 2016, 2023 (Champions)

                      Pass complete. Lipkin has a man in front! Shot... SCORE!!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                        Thank you burgie for the great and thorough analysis! Very much appreciated.

                        Brown seems to have beaten all the teams it needed to, without knowing it. We hold the tie-breaker with all the teams around us (assuming Dartmouth won't catch up to us, but nothing is a given in this league), and if we can get 3 points, we'll be golden. We also need to root for the North Country teams and for Yale, vehemently.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                          Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                          Quinnipiac wins every tiebreaker except those against Union and RPI (they were swept in both series) while those against Yale (moot) and Brown are still in flux, depending on the results of the upcoming weekend. Since the Bears already beat the Bobcats in December and Quinnpiac is leading in the standings by two points, if the Brown tiebreaker does come into play, then Quinnipiac loses it. Holding the tiebreaker over Dartmouth guarantees that the Bobcats cannot fall into 11th place. Beating Brown on Friday guarantees the Bobcats home-ice while a tie does not (but it would reduce the magic number to 1).
                          Probably not much point in mentioning this now, but there is a way in which Quinnipiac could finish #11. If the Bobcats lose to both Brown and Yale, Dartmouth beats St. Lawrence and Clarkson, Princeton beats Brown, and Harvard gets at least one point, then there will be a three-way tie among Brown, Dartmouth, and Quinnipiac, all with 18 points. Quinnipiac would lose the three-way head-to-head tiebreaker (1-3 vs. 2-1-1 for both Brown and Dartmouth) and would be seeded 11th.

                          This could get even worse, as Harvard and/or Princeton could also finish with 18 points under this scenario, creating a four- or five-way tie. The Bobcats would still finish 11th.
                          LET'S GO RED!!

                          If you lead a good life, go to Sunday school and church, and say your prayers every night, when you die, you'll go to LYNAH!

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                          • #14
                            Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                            Right you are. I focused too much on individual tiebreakers, and forgot to take multi-way tiebreaks into account until I was over halfway through the post. Great catch.

                            I should have an update tomorrow night after the Friday games get settled out and the playoff picture becomes significantly clearer.
                            Go Red!!

                            National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                            Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: ECAC- Last week of regular season

                              I've seen this misunderstood in places:
                              The ECAC tiebreakers only involve playoff seedings, not crowning a champion.
                              Co- Champions or even Tri- Champions are possible for 2009-2010. It happened with Colgate and Dartmouth a few years ago.

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