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NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

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  • NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

    Enjoy

    Middlebury has a good week and climbs back into the top 15. There are a lot of teams with ratings in the 600-630 range. Since the margin of error is +/- 10 points, you can see why there is so much shuffling around of positions in the slots 6-15 in the national poll. Also the 3/4 race between PLT and SNB is essentially even. NRW's tie and OSW's victory over PLT allows OSW to increase their lead over NRW.

    As always, questions and comments are welcome. Notice Adrian falls a couple of spots because they had to play Finlandia and it hurt their SOS and Defeated Team's Winning Percentage measures.

    Code:
    Rank          G      W     L      Rating       Last Week
    1	OSW	21	20	1	723		1
    2	NRW	19	17	2	694		2
    3	PLT	20	15	5	664		3
    4	SNB	21	17.5	3.5	661		4
    5	STS	21	16.5	4.5	648		5
    6	ELM	20	16.5	3.5	642		6
    7	AMH	18	15	3	630		7
    8	MID	16	11	5	624		16
    9	GAC	19	14	5	622		9
    10	WIL	16	11.5	4.5	621		13
    11	HML	19	13.5	5.5	611		10
    12	TRN	18	11	7	602		12
    13	WEN	18	15.5	2.5	602		8
    14	CUR	19	13.5	5.5	596		14
    15	FIT	18	14.5	3.5	594		18
    16	WST	21	11	10	594		14
    17	CLB	17	11.5	5.5	588		11
    18	BOW	17	11.5	5.5	587		17
    19	MAN	19	15	4	580		23
    20	WRF	21	13	8	578		20
    21	ADR	19	16	3	577		19
    22	HAM	18	11	7	572		21
    23	HOB	20	10	10	571		22
    24	SAL	17	9	8	568		25
    25	FRE	20	15	5	565		24
    26	TUF	18	9.5	8.5	564		25
    27	CST	19	9.5	9.5	559		28
    28	BAB	19	11	8	552		39
    29	WSP	21	10.5	10.5	552		30
    30	WSR	21	9.5	11.5	552		28
    31	POT	20	9	11	550		31
    32	WEC	21	7.5	13.5	550		25
    33	AUG	19	11.5	7.5	548		34
    34	STA	16	8.5	7.5	535		38
    35	STO	19	11	8	533		32
    36	SOM	19	9	10	529		33
    37	NEC	19	9	10	528		35
    38	UMB	18	9.5	8.5	518		43
    39	SKD	19	7.5	11.5	517		41
    40	WFS	18	10	8	517		44
    41	CTC	18	4.5	13.5	515		46
    42	UTC	19	7.5	11.5	515		44
    43	MAR	18	12	6	514		48
    44	PLY	18	11	7	512		41
    45	NEU	20	11	9	512		37
    46	MOR	18	5	13	509		36
    47	STT	21	10	11	509		39
    48	STJ	19	8	11	501		47
    49	BRC	20	11	9	495		49
    50	GEN	20	9.5	10.5	495		50
    51	WES	17	6	11	491		53
    52	BEC	18	9.5	8.5	490		51
    53	BET	21	9	12	486		56
    54	NIC	19	12	7	478		52
    55	CRT	21	7	14	470		55
    56	AMP	18	9.5	8.5	470		54
    57	CNC	21	7	14	468		57
    58	MSE	19	10.5	8.5	465		64
    59	BFS	20	6.5	13.5	458		59
    60	STN	18	8.5	9.5	453		58
    61	UMD	18	7.5	10.5	446		61
    62	STM	17	4.5	12.5	443		60
    63	WOR	16	5	11	438		65
    64	SUF	19	7	12	430		61
    65	J&W	19	7	12	427		67
    66	LKF	18	7.5	10.5	427		66
    67	LAW	18	7.5	10.5	425		63
    68	FPU	21	6	15	404		68
    69	UNE	18	1	17	387		69
    70	SNH	16	4.5	11.5	383		72
    71	STR	19	1.5	17.5	371		71
    72	FRA	17	2	15	369		70
    73	NLD	19	3.5	15.5	334		73
    74	FNL	19	4	15	320		75
    75	WNE	17	1.5	15.5	311		74
    76	CNW	19	1.5	17.5	307		75
    77	SLV	19	1	18	293		77
    78	LVC	20	0	20	290		78
    2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
    2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
    2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
    2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

  • #2
    Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

    I am not known as a great Adrian fan but here is the flaw with the by the numbers appoach only. I would suspect that because of Adrians remaining strenghth of scedule that they will only continue to fall in your rankings. I get the opponet factor but I think Adrian is a better team than some of those listed above them in your rankings.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

      Originally posted by jazman View Post
      I am not known as a great Adrian fan but here is the flaw with the by the numbers appoach only. I would suspect that because of Adrians remaining strenghth of scedule that they will only continue to fall in your rankings. I get the opponet factor but I think Adrian is a better team than some of those listed above them in your rankings.
      I would suspect you are correct, however in the only 3 games against any of the teams above them they have lost, so we still really do not know. Good thing for the autobid, I would be very disappointed if Adrian does not win their tourney.
      93GreatLaker

      2012-13 LPS Losers Bracket Champion
      2011-12 LPS Losers Bracket Champion
      2010-11 LPS Losers Bracket Champion
      2008-09 DIII College Hockey Pool Champion
      2008-09 SUNYAC Pick-em Champion

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

        Originally posted by jazman View Post
        I am not known as a great Adrian fan but here is the flaw with the by the numbers appoach only. I would suspect that because of Adrians remaining strenghth of scedule that they will only continue to fall in your rankings. I get the opponet factor but I think Adrian is a better team than some of those listed above them in your rankings.
        But no ranking is a measure of "good" a team is. The best team (i.e. that one with the most potential to win games) is not always #1, because potential does not always translate into results. Rankings are a measure of a teams performance compared to that of other teams. And honestly, the performances of those teams above them are all (albeit only slightly in some cases) more impressive than anything Adrian can possibly do in the MCHA. The bulldogs had their chance (3 games in a row), they blew it (3 games in a row), and now they have to wait until March for any respect.

        But the reality here is: until the MCHA either a) gets stronger and more competitive OOC or b) reduces its constricting 20-game conference schedule or BOTH, Adrian will never get much respect in rankings. This year, htey got as high as #4, and that was because they were given the benefit of the doubt. They blew that, too.

        Having seen the one game Jan 8, I saw what I consider to be a contender (go ahead Remy, blast me for saying this, it won't change my opinion). Depending on where they get shipped off to in March, they could have a shot at making a trip to Lake Placid. They have the potential, they just haven't yet translated it into performance.
        Plattsburgh CARDINALS
        SUNYAC Champ x24: 78, 79, 82, 83, 85, 87, 88, 90, 92, 93, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 08, 09, 11, 12, 15, 17, 23
        ECACW Champ x11: 81, 82, 87, 92, 06, 07, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
        NEWHL Champ x5: 18, 19, 20, 22, 23
        NCAA DIII Champ x10-ish: 87, 92, 01, 07, 08, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19
        NCAA DIII Runner-up x4-ish: 86, 90, 06, 08
        NCAA DII Runner-up x2: 81, 82

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

          Originally posted by CARDS_rule_the_Burgh View Post
          But the reality here is: until the MCHA either a) gets stronger and more competitive OOC or b) reduces its constricting 20-game conference schedule or BOTH, Adrian will never get much respect in rankings. This year, htey got as high as #4, and that was because they were given the benefit of the doubt. They blew that, too.
          Just reducing the number of NC games for the MCHA isn't going to necessarily improve the quality of the NC schedule for the MCHA teams. There are only 7 NC games available for each NCHA team, and only 9 for each MIAC team. That mean there are 49 + 81 = 130 slots for NC games. Many of the slots are used because of the partial interlock that is in place between the MIAC and NCHA. Each one of those games burns 2 slots. If the MCHA decreased the number of conference games to 14, they would flood the market with NC opportunities, and probably end up like the old ECAC NE did by playing a lot of NC games with teams in the league. To expand the number of games between the MCHA and the other two Western conferences, they'd need one of the two leagues to decrease the number of league games.
          2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
          2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
          2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
          2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

            Originally posted by NUProf View Post
            Just reducing the number of NC games for the MCHA isn't going to necessarily improve the quality of the NC schedule for the MCHA teams. There are only 7 NC games available for each NCHA team, and only 9 for each MIAC team. That mean there are 49 + 81 = 130 slots for NC games. Many of the slots are used because of the partial interlock that is in place between the MIAC and NCHA. Each one of those games burns 2 slots. If the MCHA decreased the number of conference games to 14, they would flood the market with NC opportunities, and probably end up like the old ECAC NE did by playing a lot of NC games with teams in the league. To expand the number of games between the MCHA and the other two Western conferences, they'd need one of the two leagues to decrease the number of league games.
            I was more referring to an increased opportunity for Adrian to play other teams themselves
            Plattsburgh CARDINALS
            SUNYAC Champ x24: 78, 79, 82, 83, 85, 87, 88, 90, 92, 93, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 08, 09, 11, 12, 15, 17, 23
            ECACW Champ x11: 81, 82, 87, 92, 06, 07, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
            NEWHL Champ x5: 18, 19, 20, 22, 23
            NCAA DIII Champ x10-ish: 87, 92, 01, 07, 08, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19
            NCAA DIII Runner-up x4-ish: 86, 90, 06, 08
            NCAA DII Runner-up x2: 81, 82

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NU Prof's Computer Rankings for Feb. 1

              Originally posted by CARDS_rule_the_Burgh View Post
              I was more referring to an increased opportunity for Adrian to play other teams themselves
              Same thing applies - with 5 NC opportunities, and the NC opportunities currently available from the NCHA/MIAC they found 2 quality in region games and 1 quality out of region game. Releasing another 32 (assume they went a 16 game schedule) NC slots into the Western system is likely to make it harder rather than easier for Adrian to find dance partners, especially given their location.
              2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
              2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
              2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
              2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

              Comment

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