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freak
01-27-2010, 04:20 PM
--- #1/#2 Seed Lock - 34 (Can't be caught by #3) ---
--- #3/#4 Seed Lock - 31 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
--- In - 25 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---
--- Out - 16 (Can't catch #6) ---
PC 22 - 34 [1-7]
UNH 16 - 34 [1-8]
NU 23 - 33 [1-7]
UC 17 - 33 [1-8]
BU 18 - 30 [1-8]
BC 16 - 26 [1-8]
UMO 10 - 24[1-8]
UVM 05 - 21 [3-8]

UNH - 08 pts lost; 9 games remaining
UC - 09 pts lost; 8 games remaining
PC - 08 pts lost; 6 games remaining
BC - 16 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BU - 12 pts lost; 6 games remaining
NU - 09 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UMO - 18 pts lost; 7 games remaining
UVM - 21 pts lost; 8 games remaining

A note: I've reordered the standings to reflect each team's potential points. This will make it easier to see why I've placed the cutoffs for the #1/#2 and #3/#4 seeds according to PC/UNH (2nd/5th place in standings) and BU (3rd place) respectively. As games in hand are made up this discrepancy between the standings and the playoff analysis will even out.

Apparently I'm starting this a bit later than usual, and as such some dominoes have already fallen. Vermont can finish no better than 3rd place. NU and PC can finish no worse than 7th.

DC78-82
01-27-2010, 06:11 PM
Quite fantastic and incredible that with less than a month remaining in the regular season, 6 teams have the potential to finish on top, and if I'm not mistaken, no team can win out and get #1 without help from another team losing points.

Makes travel plans for the playoffs more and more spur of the moment!

freak
01-27-2010, 07:04 PM
PC should be able to win out and get the #1 seed. Both UNH and the Fryers ;) could finish with 34 pts, but Proviced would take the H2H tiebreaker. But that would just be for seeding purposes.

Hux
01-27-2010, 09:20 PM
Quite fantastic and incredible that with less than a month remaining in the regular season, 6 teams have the potential to finish on top, and if I'm not mistaken, no team can win out and get #1 without help from another team losing points.

Makes travel plans for the playoffs more and more spur of the moment!

Which is why the league should secure ice at Tsongas for the semis and final, thus negating all the last minute stress of planning travel. ;)

chippy
01-28-2010, 08:42 AM
PC should be able to win out and get the #1 seed. Both UNH and the Fryers ;) could finish with 34 pts, but Proviced would take the H2H tiebreaker. But that would just be for seeding purposes.

Now, there you go again, counting out the underDOGS!!!!! Don't count your points before they hatch!!! There's a new force of HOUNDS to be rekoned with in this league now!!! :D

Chip:cool:

freak
01-28-2010, 09:14 AM
Now, there you go again, counting out the underDOGS!!!!! Don't count your points before they hatch!!! There's a new force of HOUNDS to be rekoned with in this league now!!! :D Chip:cool:

Get a hold of yourself, chippy. NOBODY is counting anybody out.

This is a completely unbiased analysis of points earned, lost,and potential points to determine exactly when a team has clinched playoff spots, seeds, and/or been eliminated.

The fact of the matter is that if PC wins out they WILL be the #1 seed.....period.

My reply was to DCs post, noting that while no team can win the conference outright without help, PC does control their destiny as far as seedings/home ice is concerned.

Hux
01-28-2010, 09:25 AM
Don't mind Chippy there Freak, he is just stressed out that his Huntington Hounds will be without their Swiss Miss cocoa for a few weeks. Personally, I wouldn't be all that worried, as the Eskimo Pie is sure to hold the fort! ;)

scrambledlegs
01-28-2010, 11:52 AM
Don't mind Chippy there Freak, he is just stressed out that his Huntington Hounds will be without their Swiss Miss cocoa for a few weeks. Personally, I wouldn't be all that worried, as the Eskimo Pie is sure to hold the fort! ;)

It must have been awfully close to lunch when this post came out :D



The fact of the matter is that if PC wins out they WILL be the #1 seed.....period.

My reply was to DCs post, noting that while no team can win the conference outright without help, PC does control their destiny as far as seedings/home ice is concerned.

I, for one, support this scenario!

freak
01-30-2010, 05:10 PM
--- #1/#2 Seed Lock - 33 (Can't be caught by #3) ---
--- #3/#4 Seed Lock - 29 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
NU 23 - 33 [1-6]
PC 22 - 32 [1-6]
--- In - 23 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---
UNH 18 - 34 [1-8]
UC 21 - 33 [1-7]
BU 18 - 28 [1-8]
BC 16 - 26 [1-8]
UMO 10 - 22[3-8]
UVM 07 - 19 [4-8]
--- Out - 16 (Can't catch #6) ---

UNH - 08 pts lost; 8 games remaining
UC - 09 pts lost; 6 games remaining
PC - 10 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BC - 16 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BU - 14 pts lost; 5 games remaining
NU - 09 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UMO - 20 pts lost; 6 games remaining
UVM - 23 pts lost; 6 games remaining

Northeastern and PC become the first teams to clinch a playoff spot due to UNHs win over Maine. While Maine could catch PC in the standings, the Fryers would take the H2H tiebreaker.

UConn can finish no worse than 7th.

Maine can finish no better than 3rd. Vermont can finish no better than 4th.

freak
01-30-2010, 08:46 PM
--- #1/#2 Seed Lock - 33 (Can't be caught by #3) ---
--- #3/#4 Seed Lock - 29 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
UNH 20 - 34 [1-6]
NU 23 - 33 [1-6]
UC 21 - 33 [1-6]
PC 22 - 32 [1-6]
--- In - 21 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---
BU 18 - 28 [1-8]
BC 16 - 26 [1-8]
UMO 10 - 20[5-8]
UVM 07 - 19 [5-8]
--- Out - 16 (Can't catch #6) ---

UNH - 08 pts lost; 7 games remaining
UC - 09 pts lost; 6 games remaining
PC - 10 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BC - 16 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BU - 14 pts lost; 5 games remaining
NU - 09 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UMO - 22 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UVM - 23 pts lost; 6 games remaining

UNH and UConn clinch a playoff berth after UNHs 3-1 win over Maine.

Maine and UVM can finish no better than 5th.

chippy
02-03-2010, 08:25 PM
freak,

Can you update your chart?:D

Chip:cool:

freak
02-03-2010, 11:22 PM
freak,

Can you update your chart?:D

Chip:cool:

Absolutely. But before I do, I would like to congratulate Vermont on their first win over UNH. There is one team out there that might want to take some pointers.

--- #1/#2 Seed Lock - 33 (Can't be caught by #3) ---
--- #3/#4 Seed Lock - 29 (Can't be caught by #5) ---
NU 23 - 33 [1-6]
UC 21 - 33 [1-6]
UNH 20 - 32 [1-6]
PC 22 - 32 [1-6]
--- In - 21 (Can't be caught by bottom 2) ---
BU 18 - 28 [1-8]
BC 16 - 26 [1-8]
UMO 10 - 20[5-8]
UVM 09 - 19 [5-8]
--- Out - 16 (Can't catch #6) ---

UNH - 10 pts lost; 6 games remaining
UC - 09 pts lost; 6 games remaining
PC - 10 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BC - 16 pts lost; 5 games remaining
BU - 14 pts lost; 5 games remaining
NU - 09 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UMO - 22 pts lost; 5 games remaining
UVM - 23 pts lost; 5 games remaining

Bergey1
02-04-2010, 10:41 AM
UVM could also give pointers to some teams out there on how to beat PC.

ARM
02-04-2010, 11:21 AM
This is a lot more interesting than all of those seasons where everyone conceded the race to UNH and the mystery was who would finish 2nd.

freak
02-04-2010, 12:01 PM
This is a lot more interesting than all of those seasons where everyone conceded the race to UNH and the mystery was who would finish 2nd.

Actually, for the purposes of this thread, we aren't in a decidedly different place than last year.

http://board.uscho.com/showpost.php?p=4111239&postcount=40

With roughly 5-6 games left per team last year, HEA actually had 5 teams that had secured a playoff berth, all within 3 pts, and each with the possibility of finishing first.

Maine and Vermont were only slightly back of where they are today, only being able to finish as high as sixth. UNH had dropped 7 pts at this time last year (10 this year), while Vermont could have earned as many as 18 pts last year (19 this year).

The main difference I see is that 6 teams now make the conference tourney instead of 4. In the 4 team tourney, teams didn't clinch playoff spots until later in the season than we are now, including UNH. In 06-07, UNH didn't clinch a spot until they had 6 games remaining. In the 6 team tourney, playoff berths fall earlier, but the seedings have tended to fall late.

I think that the reason this season seems different, is because of the increased parity across the league. We're in a similar place in terms of determining the playoff field, but the bottom teams are clearly more capable of taking points from the top. While UVM could have earned as much as 18 pts at this time last year, the odds were very much against it. This makes every game even more important for the top teams, because one slip-up could result in traveling for the quarters or not hosting the semi/final round.

TonyTheTiger20
02-04-2010, 12:28 PM
Actually, for the purposes of this thread, we aren't in a decidedly different place than last year.

http://board.uscho.com/showpost.php?p=4111239&postcount=40

With roughly 5-6 games left per team last year, HEA actually had 5 teams that had secured a playoff berth, all within 3 pts, and each with the possibility of finishing first.
I don't think that's what ARM meant. I think he means that there's actually a team that has a better-than-average chance of hosting the tournament (that is, beating UNH).

ARM
02-04-2010, 01:02 PM
I don't think that's what ARM meant. I think he means that there's actually a team that has a better-than-average chance of hosting the tournament (that is, beating UNH).That's kind of my point, that there are at least four teams with a very realistic chance of winning the regular season crown. Sometimes the standings might suggest a tighter race, but when you check out the games and where they will be played, it becomes less likely that one team can catch another. This time, freak may be right that the possibility exists in large part because the results are not predetermined.

freak
02-04-2010, 01:09 PM
No, I understood his point. My point was that even last year we were in a similar position to this year. Only 3 pts separated the top 5 teams. UNH had a short roster and the goaltending wasn't spectacular. It wasn't like UNH ran away with the league last year. I believe that even last year there was a very good chance for another team to upset UNH.

I believe that people's opinions are still clouded by the year UNH went undefeated in HEA, and 05-06 when they ripped through the league on their way to the Frozen Four. The idea that last year was simply a battle for 2nd place, imo, is mistaken.

ARM
02-04-2010, 03:03 PM
My point was that even last year we were in a similar position to this year. ... I believe that even last year there was a very good chance for another team to upset UNH.OK -- I guess last year was fun too and I missed it.:D From a distance, you don't seem that vulnerable when you are playing teams at home and you've never lost a game on your rink. You would know your team and its vulnerabilities better. Right now, I'd say it is slightly different in that you don't control your own destiny with NU and PC (although only for a tie in the Friars case.) You may have had a similar situation with BU last year, but I'd guess that was earlier, and I think the challengers this year are more of a threat.

sheba
02-04-2010, 03:15 PM
freak - how do the Shoot-out wins figure into points for the final standings?? for example, if there are tied teams in points, do they evaluate the shoot out points somehow?