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PrezdeJohnson09
01-24-2010, 08:22 PM
1.Oswego
2.Norwich
3.Plattsburgh
4.Elmira
5.St. Norbert
6.St. Scholastica
7.Amherst
8.Hamline
9.Gustavus Adolphus
10.Adrian
11.River Falls
12.Manhattanville
13.Williams
14.Middlebury
15.Colby

Frazier
01-24-2010, 08:38 PM
Thanks for posting P.J. Was looking forward to this even though I did not do so well last week. This is about my 4th idioteration and I am probably way over thinking it.
W-L-T sched strength
RK
1. Oswego 18-1-0 4
2. Norwich 14-0-3 1
3. Elmira 14-3-1 2
4. Plattsburgh 12-2-4 3
4. St. Norbert 15-3-1 22
6. St Scholastica 13-3-3 21
7. Amherst 12-2-2 11
8. Hamline 11-3-3 33
9. Adrian 14-3-0 55
10. Gustavus 13-4-2 47
11. Williams 9-3-2 12
12. Middlebury 7-3-4 8
13. Manhattanville 14-4-0 41
14. Colby 10-2-3 16
15. Wentworth 12-2-1 42
16. Curry 11-4-1 32
17. Bowdoin 10-4-0 14
18. Fredonia 14-5-0 30


NESCAC soup should sort itself out somewhat next week. Williams and Middlebury are both at home and I think they both play Colby and Bowdoin. Looks like NESCAC is a hard conference to win on the road or perhaps itís just regression towards the mean. I would not place Wentworth ahead of Curry but I think they may.

ROOKIE

LoudHorns31
01-24-2010, 08:43 PM
3. Elmira 14-3-1 2
4. Plattsburgh 12-2-3 3


wondering why you would drop Plattsburgh a spot to 4 and move Elmira ahead after both teams won both their games this weekend? not saying your wrong, just wondering you logic. thanks for posting your rankings though!

Frazier
01-24-2010, 08:52 PM
Thanks for posting P.J. Was looking forward to this even though I did not do so well last week. This is about my 4th idioteration and I am probably way over thinking it.
W-L-T sched strength
RK
1. Oswego 18-1-0 4
2. Norwich 14-0-3 1
3. Elmira 14-3-1 2
4. Plattsburgh 12-2-4 3
4. St. Norbert 15-3-1 22
6. St Scholastica 13-3-3 21
7. Amherst 12-2-2 11
8. Hamline 11-3-3 33
9. Adrian 14-3-0 55
10. Gustavus 13-4-2 47
11. Williams 9-3-2 12
12. Middlebury 7-3-4 8
13. Manhattanville 14-4-0 41
14. Colby 10-2-3 16
15. Wentworth 12-2-1 42
16. Curry 11-4-1 32
17. Bowdoin 10-4-0 14
18. Fredonia 14-5-0 30


NESCAC soup should sort itself out somewhat next week. Williams and Middlebury are both at home and I think they both play Colby and Bowdoin. Looks like NESCAC is a hard conference to win on the road or perhaps itís just regression towards the mean. I would not place Wentworth ahead of Curry but I think they may.

ROOKIE

Frazier
01-24-2010, 09:02 PM
Moved Elmira ahead of Platts to correct for my SUNYAC BIAS and because Middlebury was our strongest win and they are not as I suspected as strong as thet were ranked. I had a tough time because Platts has played most of it's tough games on the road but has tied those. If I am remebering correctly, Elmira beat Oswego and that, in my book is better than a tie against Williams and Middlebury although it was early on.

d3follower
01-24-2010, 09:38 PM
Time to start giving a little more weight to strength of schedule:

1. Oswego 18-1-0 4
2. Norwich 14-0-3 1
3. Elmira 14-3-1 2
4. Plattsburgh 12-2-4 3
5. Amherst 12-2-2 11
6. St. Norbert 15-3-1 22
7. St Scholastica 13-3-3 21
8. Williams 9-3-2 12
9. Colby 10-2-3 16
10. Hamline 11-3-3 33
11. Middlebury 7-3-4 8
12. Adrian 14-3-0 55
13. Bowdoin 10-4-0 14
14. Gustavus 13-4-2 47
15. Curry 11-4-1 32
16. Wentworth 12-2-1 42
17. Manhattanville 14-4-0 41
18. Fredonia 14-5-0 30

Frazier
01-24-2010, 10:00 PM
Is strength of scheduled determined by the current rankings of the teams you have played to date or does it include your entire schedule based on current rankings?

ROOKIE

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh
01-24-2010, 10:12 PM
Is strength of scheduled determined by the current rankings of the teams you have played to date or does it include your entire schedule based on current rankings?

ROOKIE

Strength of Schedule is based on Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP) and Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP)

spwood
01-25-2010, 07:28 AM
Moved Elmira ahead of Platts to correct for my SUNYAC BIAS and because Middlebury was our strongest win and they are not as I suspected as strong as thet were ranked. I had a tough time because Platts has played most of it's tough games on the road but has tied those. If I am remebering correctly, Elmira beat Oswego and that, in my book is better than a tie against Williams and Middlebury although it was early on.

So you dropped Plattsburgh because Middlebury lost this weekend? :confused: Interesting logic....

NUProf
01-25-2010, 07:37 AM
So you dropped Plattsburgh because Middlebury lost this weekend? :confused: Interesting logic....

Middlebury's losses do reduce Platty's SOS. The effect of that shows up inside the numbers my computer rankings, but not enough to hurt Platty in my measurements.

Old Rook NU'66
01-25-2010, 09:13 AM
Earlier this month I said polls were all love/hate--and the following sort of explains how perplexed I can get by them--when I read the predictions. I am not smart enough to make such precise predictions but have thought about how the results are arrived at.

This weekend while watching a game in which one team was really controlling and dominating the play, I asked myself, "Does the opposing coach actually pause for a moment to admire an opponent that clearly has much more talent, is better prepared, or just clicking that night or does that coach focus on mixing, matching and maxing his resources to see if he can coach the situation around for his team'?":confused:

And come Monday AM when it is time to fill out the poll does that losing recall with admiration and respect the 9 to 0 beating he might have suffered two nights before? :mad: Or does he take his revenge by tanking the team that beat him on his weekly poll questionnaire.:mad: To be honest, had I been the coach of that Concordia (WI) team few years back ,who had been beaten and humiliated by Adrian with 36 goals in two consecutive games, I am not sure Adrian would have gotten my vote. :( :mad:

I suppose it depends on the coach. As I have said before polls are all love/hate--great on the way up and miserable on the way down. Now I am just spit balling here but I wonder do coaches asked to rank other teams (they may or may not have seen) spend as much time on them as we do debating them or is he spending time getting ready for the next game. The answer is obvious. :)

I am pondering all this (that is what you do on Monday AMs when you retire--ponder the fate of the universe and hockey polls) as I look at so many poll predictions. :confused:

NU Prof's more scientific computer approach, for example, has Middlebury going down to #16--while the four human/fan predictions so far have the Panthers at worse no further down than #14. None is right or wrong but coach's polls must be done so quickly that I question their value--especially if a coach has "issues" with a school he has ranked purposely low or artificially high because of the number of Championship rings they may have once won. Fan predictions seem to be more accurate than coaches because, face it, fans have less to do hence they really study the numbers--but also recognize they are fans with a bias and an ax to grind.

I guess I like NU Prof's very strict scientific computer approach best only because all the emotion is tossed out and the rankings are based entirely on statistics. Problem is NU Prof didn't move MY team up this week--doesn't his computer know how great they are? . :)

But like I said, "love/hate polls" that is all they are.

NUProf
01-25-2010, 09:23 AM
I guess I like NU Prof's very strict scientific computer approach best only because all the emotion is tossed out and the rankings are based entirely on statistics. Problem is NU Prof didn't move MY team up this week--doesn't his computer know how great they are? . :)

Sometimes I hate my own computer - (less so now, because I've got a mac :) instead of an NU issued dell) it doesn't see the obvious that NU > Oswego.

Assuming nothing goes wrong on our end, If Plattsburgh can take care of business next weekend, we'll see a new #1 on my computer :)

norm1909
01-25-2010, 09:29 AM
Sometimes I hate my own computer - (less so now, because I've got a mac :) instead of an NU issued dell) it doesn't see the obvious that NU > Oswego.

Assuming nothing goes wrong on our end, If Plattsburgh can take care of business next weekend, we'll see a new #1 on my computer :)

I still beleive it is Eastern BIAS (Built In Adjustment System) :p

VECTOR NRW <= 3.
- DO IF NRW < XXX.
- ADJUST NRW > XXX.
- ELSE.
- GOWITHIT.
- END IF.
EXECUTE.
;)

Old Rook NU'66
01-25-2010, 10:41 AM
That's funny. My computer is a Mac too. Must be an older model because it tilts towards Norwich 9 out of 10 times :)

nysportsfan29
01-25-2010, 12:56 PM
I think one of the biggest questions this week is how the first place votes shake up between Oswego and Norwich. I think that both team's Friday night games are pretty much a wash - playing two teams that are in the toilet of their respective conferences. Saturday is a bit different, though. Oswego beat a 14 win team in Fredonia while Trinity only has 8 wins. Since Trinity hasn't played as many games, you can even go by winning% and Fredonia's .737 is more impressive than Trinity's .600. For that reason, I think Oswego pilfers a 1st place vote back from the Cadets.

I was also surprised to see everyone ranking Elmira higher than SNC. They both got two wins over the weekend, but Elmira's came against totally defeated LVC whereas SNC beat Wis.-Superior who were over .500 before their weekend series. Seeing as how they each got the same amount of votes last week, I just think that SNC's wins would vault them above Elmira. We'll find out shortly.

1. Oswego (19)
2. Norwich (1)
3. Plattsburgh
4. St. Norbert
5. Elmira
6. St. Scholastica
7. Amherst
8. Gustavus Adolphus
9. Hamline
10. Adrian
11. Wis. River Falls
12. Middlebury
13. Manhattanville
14. Williams
15. Curry

Best of the rest:
Colby, Wenworth, Bowdoin, Fredonia

Curry's win over Wentworth I think is the reason why they leapfrog Colby. If I had a vote I'd put Colby in over Middlebury, but since I don't and these are predictions, it's pretty much a given that Middlebury will stay ranked (unfortunately).

iDangledYourMom
01-25-2010, 01:25 PM
Best of the rest:
Colby, Wenworth, Bowdoin, Fredonia


Yeaaahhhh, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Slightly off here easterner.

doncheery
01-25-2010, 03:22 PM
Why does everybody have Midd in the top 15 when they are 5th in the NESCAC?

norm1909
01-25-2010, 03:29 PM
Why does everybody have Midd in the top 15 when they are 5th in the NESCAC?

TOMA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_of_mind_awareness)

doncheery
01-25-2010, 03:31 PM
Gotta be.

oswegohockey12
01-25-2010, 03:58 PM
I think Plattsburgh will drop a spot after the tie to Williams last week.