RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

All I'm saying is that is it not statistically impossible using a number of scenarios besides "past performance guarantees future outcome". I would only be fooling myself if I thought it was impossible. I agree that it is quite unlikely.

Calculate it out, then. Under what scenario does RPI not win the ECAC championship, yet still makes it to the big dance?

Honestly, if there's an X there, I trust it to be mathematically impossible. Unfortunately we are not dealing with very large quantities of 2, so 2 + 2 will never equal 5.

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

I would hope that it is via the likelihood of each team winning in each game based upon KRACH to date, but as I said, they don't see to have divulged what they actually did.

Well whatever they did the model doesn't reflect the reality of the RPI and PWR. Cornell is ranked 9th in PWR today. They are 23rd in this model with only a 29% chance of making the tournament by going 7-0 and then potentially losing to Yale (who is 7th in PWR) in the final. I should think that under that scenario Cornell would be a lock to make the tournament.

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Well whatever they did the model doesn't reflect the reality of the RPI and PWR. Cornell is ranked 9th in PWR today. They are 23rd in this model with only a 29% chance of making the tournament by going 7-0 and then potentially losing to Yale (who is 7th in PWR) in the final. I should think that under that scenario Cornell would be a lock to make the tournament.

The eagle eyed among us noted that their numbers haven't been updated since Sunday morning.

There's still five weeks left in the season. There are an extreme few teams who are locks for the tournament. Like, maybe two.

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Calculate it out, then. Under what scenario does RPI not win the ECAC championship, yet still makes it to the big dance?

Honestly, if there's an X there, I trust it to be mathematically impossible. Unfortunately we are not dealing with very large quantities of 2, so 2 + 2 will never equal 5.

I agree that it is mathematically impossible under the assumption that they stated. I question whether their assumption is valid. It is probably as good as any other scenario but it is not a comprehensive look at all of them. Nor does it factor in the idiosynchrasies of RPI and PWR, as evidenced by Cornell's situation.

I'm fairly confident that I can put together a scenario that would get us into the top 15 in PWR. Let the top 10 teams (or so) win out. SLU wins their next 4 but RPI wins out until the final. Let the underdogs win every other game including in the playoffs. Mix in some wins for people RPI fares well against in PWR (Yale, BU, UNH) and losses for those we don't (Union!). I'll bet that gets us in. It's a ridiculous enough scenario but it is possible. When I get a chance I'll try it out.

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

I don't think you're funny.

I would have stuck my tongue out if I was making a joke. I smiled because I did not have ill intent.

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

I would have stuck my tongue out if I was making a joke.

Then you really think that? That's sad.

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Then you really think that? That's sad.

Nice try. I'm not going to escalate.

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Nice try. I'm not going to escalate.

Why would there be anything to escalate? I was just opining that it's sad to derive pleasure from irritating other people or from seeing someone irritated.

You really don't understand me at all. You think you do, you do not.

[klumpmypants]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Well, they also use an X in each table for when achieving a position is statistically impossible. And, well, we've got an X in the "Win Out Minus CF" column, where we didn't before losing to Dartmouth. Other teams have at least "<1%" where there's at least a statistical possibility of it happening.

Personally, I'm in complete agreement. Based on what I know about PWR, there's not much opportunity for the Engineers to get into the Top 15.

Regardless, if you're counting on an at-large bid, you're fooling yourself.

Hey RC, are you sure that takes the league consolation game into account? And why does RPI have a 6% chance under current win%s? Does that mean they have a 6% chance of winning the tourney? I like pushing you.

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Oh look, my stalker is back.

Too bad for him he's on ignore.

[burgie12]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

At least one will be happy to know that I am tired of mocking the manufactured enthusiasm that's a part of the most overrated annual college hockey "event" - the Big Red Freakout. I usually make fun of it in my column each season, but it's getting old. RIT and dozens of other schools have this every week. It's known as "fans getting excited at a hockey game".

I'll still mock it on the radio, though.

Seems that some fanbases in D-I do not appreciate one of RPI's yearly traditions.

(Cross-posted from "RIT/Army Incident" thread)

[Red Cloud]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Seems that some fanbases in D-I do not appreciate one of RPI's yearly traditions.

(Cross-posted from "RIT/Army Incident" thread)

It's a pathology with him. He seems to think the Freakout manufactures something which doesn't exist at other RPI games. That allows him to be all high and mighty about the drunken morons that pack themselves into the sardine tin they call a hockey rink at their pathetic excuse for an institute of higher learning. I'd just ignore him. It's what I try to do with other people who speak on things they know nothing about.

But I will indeed miss his yearly screed. It was always good for a laugh, like listening to an 8-year-old describing quantum physics.

[klumpmypants]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Oh look, my stalker is back.

Too bad for him he's on ignore.

Why is that bad if you still aren't ignoring me? Eventually someone was going to stand up to you and hound you around this board to give you a taste of your own medicine. Well, hello, it's me. Only one way to defeat a bully. Ignore doesn't work, we all know that. Happy posting loser.

[Wicked Slappaahs]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

Seems that some fanbases in D-I do not appreciate one of RPI's yearly traditions.

(Cross-posted from "RIT/Army Incident" thread)

Somehow I don't think I'll be losing any sleep. What do you expect from a guy whose team went "Goon Squad" while visiting the US Military Academy?

[jmhusker]

Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town

It's a pathology with him. He seems to think the Freakout manufactures something which doesn't exist at other RPI games. That allows him to be all high and mighty about the drunken morons that pack themselves into the sardine tin they call a hockey rink at their pathetic excuse for an institute of higher learning.

Well chosen phrasing. I believe that the engineering school at RIT has a packaging engineering school which is where students who can't make it as real engineer turn. The catch phrase for it is "if you can't hack it pack it".

As far as the rest of the schools goes, did you know that with a quality RIT degree you too can become a flight attendant? I feel a little bad writing this because the person that I know who did this is a good friend. Luckily she'll never read it though.