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NUProf
01-10-2010, 05:23 PM
Okay a day early, but if you want some evidence for your poll speculation thread, or if there are poll voters out there who need some advice- here they are: the definitive authoritative D3 Computer rankings :) .

As always - if you see an error in a team's record, let me know (remember a tie is reported here as half a win and half a loss)

Some interesting moves this week - 5 count 'em, 5 NESCACs ranked 7-8-9-10-11 and Midd doing what they often do - rising after a questionable start - how many times over the years have we counted them out after the first couple of weeks only to have them revived.

And to the poster in the poll speculation thread asking about Fredonia - I've got them at 15.

As to Adrian - they are in free fall in my rankings.


G W L Score LW ScoreLW Rank
1 OSW 17 16 1 709 696 1
2 NRW 13 11.5 1.5 681 668 3
3 ELM 14 10.5 3.5 677 662 4
4 PLT 14 10.5 3.5 665 661 5
5 STS 14 11 3 663 661 5
6 SNB 15 12.5 2.5 661 675 2
7 MID 10 7.5 2.5 622 612 11
8 AMH 11 8.5 2.5 620 606 12
9 WIL 9 7.5 1.5 620 624 9
10 CLB 11 8 3 618 583 18
11 TUF 10 6.5 3.5 613 600 13
12 HML 13 9.5 3.5 612 642 7
13 GAC 14 10.5 3.5 602 595 14
14 BOW 10 7 3 596 567 21
15 FRE 14 11 3 595 566 22
16 SAL 11 6.5 4.5 594 633 8
17 WEN 12 10.5 1.5 587 575 19
18 TRN 11 6.5 4.5 586 616 10
19 WST 16 7.5 8.5 582 590 17
20 POT 15 8 7 580 569 20
21 WSR 15 9 6 576 561 25
22 CUR 12 7.5 4.5 574 593 16
23 WRF 15 9.5 5.5 567 552 28
24 HAM 11 5.5 5.5 565 594 15
25 HOB 15 8 7 563 525 36
26 UMB 11 6.5 4.5 560 554 27
27 FIT 11 7.5 3.5 559 560 26
28 MAN 16 12 4 557 534 34
29 AUG 13 9.5 3.5 556 525 36
30 NEU 15 9 6 552 538 33
31 BAB 12 6.5 5.5 551 563 23
32 WEC 15 6.5 8.5 549 548 30
33 WSP 17 8.5 8.5 546 546 31
34 WFS 12 7 5 535 562 24
35 ADR 13 10 3 535 544 32
36 CST 12 5 7 533 477 50
37 UTC 14 6.5 7.5 529 521 38
38 NEC 12 6.5 5.5 528 517 39
39 STT 14 6.5 7.5 528 534 34
40 MOR 13 4 9 522 517 39
41 CTC 12 3 9 518 475 52
42 STO 14 7 7 518 551 29
43 MAR 12 6 6 515 501 45
44 SOM 12 5.5 6.5 512 504 44
45 STA 10 6 4 508 465 55
46 SKD 12 5 7 502 467 54
47 STJ 15 6 9 501 488 49
48 BRC 13 6 7 494 501 45
49 GEN 15 7 8 493 501 45
50 BET 15 6 9 493 510 41
51 PLY 12 6 6 490 506 42
52 UMD 11 5.5 5.5 484 500 48
53 BEC 14 6.5 7.5 483 476 51
54 BFS 15 5.5 9.5 467 452 59
55 WES 10 4 6 463 505 43
56 NIC 12.5 6.5 6 461 472 53
57 CRT 14 4 10 459 461 56
58 SUF 12 5 7 456 455 58
59 LKF 12 4 8 453 434 64
60 STN 14 7.5 6.5 447 448 60
61 LAW 10 5 5 443 457 57
62 WOR 10 3 7 436 446 61
63 AMP 12 5 7 432 443 62
64 J&W 12 4 8 428 413 66
65 CNC 15 4 11 427 443 62
66 MSE 13 6.5 6.5 424 411 67
67 STM 11 2.5 8.5 422 402 69
68 FPU 14.5 4 10.5 407 428 65
69 UNE 11 1 10 386 404 68
70 STR 13 1.5 11.5 376 400 70
71 FRA 11 1.5 9.5 360 374 71
72 SNH 13 3 10 360 364 72
73 NLD 12 2 10 358 360 73
74 WNE 11 1.5 9.5 325 328 74
75 SLV 12 1 11 311 311 75
76 FNL 13 3.5 9.5 303 286 77
77 LVC 14 0 14 302 303 76
78 CNW 13 0.5 12.5 291 263 78

norm1909
01-10-2010, 05:33 PM
Eastern BIAS (Built In Adjustment System) :p

VECTOR NRW <= 3.
- DO IF NRW < XXX.
- ADJUST NRW > XXX.
- ELSE.
- GOWITHIT.
- END IF.
EXECUTE.
;)

jazman
01-11-2010, 07:39 AM
You must place a great emphasis on the opponet. How does a team who wins twice over the weekend drop from 2 to 6 without a loss.

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh
01-11-2010, 11:01 AM
You must place a great emphasis on the opponet. How does a team who wins twice over the weekend drop from 2 to 6 without a loss.

Because he factors in OWP oF Opponents Defeated. Norbert beat 3-10-2 Concordia MN, who has the fourth worst record in the west, and 5-8-2 St. John's, who is only slightly better than that, but is doing miserably in-conference, which does significant damage to their overall record.

Compare that to the defeated opponents above them: Oswego defeated 10-3-0 Adrian, Norwich defeated 9-2-3 Plattsburgh, Plattsburgh and Elmira tied, and St. Scholastica beat 8-2-3 Hamline and 6-9-0 Bethel.

SNC did good in winning, but this ranking isn't going to reward them for beating teams they SHOULD beat.

EDIT: Part of this could be that these opponents hurt SNC in both DOWP and OWP, both of which are variables in NU Prof's equation. Moral of the story: don't play weak opponents like this.

jazman
01-11-2010, 03:50 PM
Because he factors in OWP oF Opponents Defeated. Norbert beat 3-10-2 Concordia MN, who has the fourth worst record in the west, and 5-8-2 St. John's, who is only slightly better than that, but is doing miserably in-conference, which does significant damage to their overall record.

Compare that to the defeated opponents above them: Oswego defeated 10-3-0 Adrian, Norwich defeated 9-2-3 Plattsburgh, Plattsburgh and Elmira tied, and St. Scholastica beat 8-2-3 Hamline and 6-9-0 Bethel.

SNC did good in winning, but this ranking isn't going to reward them for beating teams they SHOULD beat.

EDIT: Part of this could be that these opponents hurt SNC in both DOWP and OWP, both of which are variables in NU Prof's equation. Moral of the story: don't play weak opponents like this.

So the flaw would be that if you spend your time beating eachother up in a conference of really good teams that it looks like your opponets are not any good when in fact they a very good.

mazile
01-11-2010, 04:15 PM
So the flaw would be that if you spend your time beating eachother up in a conference of really good teams that it looks like your opponets are not any good when in fact they a very good.

In reference to the NCHA, after St. Scholastica, who are these really good teams you speak of? I think that it's perhaps the other way round, an average bunch of teams play a weak out-of-conference schedule to build their resume, then play an in-conference schedule against mediocre opponents of similar ability.

NUProf
01-11-2010, 04:30 PM
Cards described the situation very well, as well as I can describe it. The other thing that my model includes that tries to avoid rewarding mediority is that it goes deeper into the schedule - A minor factor is an inclusion of oooWP - Teams that play tough teams that play tough teams get rewarded. Can it be gamed? of course, but I doubt that anybody builds their schedule with my metrics in mind - I know I'm good, but not that important :). You have to beat the teams on your schedule, but you you get a bonus when you beat teams that do well. The other thing about SOS metrics in your league - they all tend toward 50% and the real thing that is measured is how well your league cohort does in its out of conference play.

My method is somewhat Krach-like. Krach really goes deeper into the schedule than I do, but again has a component that basically asks "how good are the teams you beat?"

I knew somebody would wonder how SNC fell, but the reality is that although they had a good week, relatively speaking other teams (like Norwich) had better weeks by beating higher ranked teams.

jazman
01-11-2010, 04:59 PM
In reference to the NCHA, after St. Scholastica, who are these really good teams you speak of? I think that it's perhaps the other way round, an average bunch of teams play a weak out-of-conference schedule to build their resume, then play an in-conference schedule against mediocre opponents of similar ability.

A conference were 6 of the 7 teams get votes in the rankings can't be all bad.

17'sfanNU
01-11-2010, 05:52 PM
Good job, NU Prof, you got the first two right, Oswego 1, Norwich 2, St. Norbert 3 and Plattsburgh 4:)

NUProf
01-11-2010, 06:33 PM
Good job, NU Prof, you got the first two right, Oswego 1, Norwich 2, St. Norbert 3 and Plattsburgh 4:)

Actually, my rankings agreed with the identity of top 6 teams, but the order was scrambled a bit with 3-6. From there on down, it became a little different