View Full Version : How Early is Too Early? Inside the PWR

Pages : 1 2 [3]

03-21-2010, 01:11 PM
Here are the current PWR

1 Miami
2 Denver
3 Ferris State
4 Colorado College
5 Wisconsin
6t Bemidji State
6t Michigan State
8 Boston College
9t Vermont
9t St. Cloud State
11 Minnesota-Duluth
12t Yale
12t Massachusetts
12t North Dakota
15t Union
15t Maine
17t New Hampshire
17t Mass.-Lowell
19 Lake Superior
20 Alaska
21t Quinnipiac
21t Cornell
23t Northern Michigan
23t Minnesota State
25 Notre Dame

Same position: 2
Same seed: 4
Tournament: 9
Cut line: 14
64.3% of the field projected in January made the eventual field.

01-04-2011, 09:00 PM
The New Year is officially here and this round of non-conference games are behind us. It's time to begin to look at the PairWise seriously. "But it's only January!" I hear you say. In the eight years prior the first PWR after holiday tournaments and NC games has accurately predicted 74% of the eventual field. In every instance at least nine teams that were in the final field were in this PWR - and three times 12 teams that made the tournament were above the cut line.

What is the cut line? The number at which teams that are not conference winners make the field. Historically, that is 14; it has never been higher than 15 or lower than 13. This year the cut line should be 15 (only the AHA autobid will make the field) but with upsets in the conference tournaments that number could go down.

The first PWR of the New Year have included 82 of the 111 spots in the eventual tournament field. In addition, 32 teams have had the same seed in the NCAAs and 12 have held the same exact place in the standings. Prior to last year, only St Cloud had fallen from a #1 seed all the way out. Last year both Colorado College and Ferris State did it. Only three times has a team that wasn't a TUC now won a tournament invite.

The #1 and #2 overall seed have never fallen out of the tournament. Only the 2009 Cornell team fell as far as a #3 seed. In both 2004 and 2010 the top 2 seeds finished 1 and 2 in the final rankings. Great news for both Yale and North Dakota. #3 Denver should feel safe, but the Pioneers have fallen from the PWR twice before. Of the other current tournament teams, RPI has the greatest reason to feel nervous. No team has made its initial PWR appearance in the same year they've entered the field without an autobid. The 2006 Lake Superior State, 2007 Bemidji State and the 2010 Union squads all failed to make the tournament in their first showing.

With that, the current PairWise rankings and bracketology:

1 Yale (EC)
2 North Dakota (WC)
3 Denver U (WC)
4 New Hampshire (HE)
5 Boston Coll (HE)
6 Minn-Duluth (WC)
7 RPI (EC)
8 Michigan (CC)
9 NE-Omaha (WC)
10 Miami (CC)
11 Notre Dame (CC)
12 Wisconsin (WC)
13 CO College (WC)
14 AK-Fairbanks (CC)
15 Maine (HE)
16 Merrimack (HE)
17 Union (EC)
18 Boston Univ (HE)
19 Dartmouth (EC)
20 Princeton (EC)
21 Western Mich (CC)
22 Minnesota (WC)
23 Northern Mich (CC)
24 MSU-Mankato (WC)
25 Bemidji State (WC)

Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale BC Denver North Dakota
Michigan UNH Duluth RPI
NE-Omaha Wisconsin Notre Dame Miami
AHA Champ CO College Alaska Maine

There aren't any blatant attendance issues, but the numbers in Green Bay can be boosted significantly by moving Bucky and Michigan there. That also allows us to put 2 ECAC squads in the regional hosted by the ECAC. St. Louis is going to be a black hole for attendance (who the hell thought having a regional in a 19,000+ capacity building was a good idea?) but hopefully Notre Dame's presence will be worth something. Denver and Alaska aren't going to draw significant fans anyway, so let them drag down the St. Louis regional. (Sorry, but it's true, and it's how the committee would think.)

The new brackets look like this:

Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale BC Denver North Dakota
RPI UNH Duluth Michigan
NE-Omaha Miami Notre Dame Wisconsin
AHA Champ CO College Alaska Maine

Statistically speaking, this will look very similar to the final brackets in March.

Onion Man
01-04-2011, 09:32 PM
Priceless, Siouxsports' PWR is a little different from yours:


01-04-2011, 09:59 PM
Priceless, Siouxsports' PWR is a little different from yours:


I'm guessing that's because they don't have the UMD-Clarkson game yet. But I will check the updated PWR when all games are included.

Edit: That's not it. The SS site breaks ties by RPI, TBRW breaks them via H2H comparison. Yale's RPI is also different on the two sites. It appears the other teams have the correct RPI values. TBRW and USCHO have .6236 and SS has .6228

As far as how to break ties:

Teams are then ranked by PWR point total, with ties broken by the teams’ RPI ratings. This tiebreaking procedure is in displaying the PWR but is not definitively the way the selection committee breaks ties. There is anecdotal evidence that the committee in fact uses RPI to break ties. USCHO PWR Explanation (http://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-rankings-explanation/)

The tie that is changed using this method is UNH and BC. The Eagles win the tiebreaker and would finish #4 overall, UNH would finish #5. It would not change the Miami-UNO or Alaska-Maine ties.

01-05-2011, 12:01 AM

01-19-2011, 04:04 AM
The criteria for the PWR have changed. The NCAA has deemed that all teams with a .5000 or better RPI are now TUC. That increases the number of TUC to 34 currently.

1 Yale (EC) 33
2 North Dakota (WC) 31
3 Minn-Duluth (WC) 31
4 Denver U (WC) 30
5 Michigan (CC) 29
6 New Hampshire (HE) 27
7 Boston Coll (HE) 26
8 Notre Dame (CC) 26
9 Wisconsin (WC) 24
10 Merrimack (HE) 23
11 Western Mich (CC) 23
12 Dartmouth (EC) 22
13 Union (EC) 21
14 NE-Omaha (WC) 20
15 RPI (EC) 19
16 Miami (CC) 18
17 Maine (HE) 17
18 Boston Univ (HE) 15
19 AK-Fairbanks (CC) 15
20 Princeton (EC) 14
21 CO College (WC) 13
22 Bemidji State (WC) 12
23 Minnesota (WC) 11
24 Ohio State (CC) 10
25 Ferris State (CC) 10
26 MSU-Mankato (WC) 8
27 AK-Anchorage (WC) 7
28 Brown (EC) 7
29 Clarkson (EC) 5
30 Robert Morris (AH) 4
31 Northern Mich (CC) 4
32 Quinnipiac (EC) 3
33 Mich State (CC) 2
34 St Cloud (WC) 1

At this point in the season the PairWise are 79% accurate (88 of 111) in forecasting the eventual field. Given the expected cut line of 15, that means 12 teams that are currently in the field will be invited to the tournament.

21 of 32 (66%) #1 seeds remained top seeds. 30 of 32 (94%) made the tournament. 35 of the 111 (32%) remain in the same band and 19 (17%) are in the same place. The 2004 St. Cloud and 2010 Duluth squads are the only teams at the top to fall completely out; the 2006 Maine and 2010 Northern Michigan teams both came from #24 to earn at-large berths.

The projected field:

Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay
Yale Denver North Dakota Minn-Duluth
BC UNH Michigan Notre Dame
Dartmouth W Michigan Merrimack Wisconsin
Neb-Omaha Union AHA Champ RPI

01-19-2011, 10:31 AM
That's how I see it too. And yes, moving the TUC cliff out (as affected by the RPI) really impacted some teams like Maine, Miami (down) and WMU and UNH (up).
Of course this doesn't factor conference tourney upsets, either and presumably RIT will come out of the AHA.