The definitive tournament speculation thread

[aerogroup2]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

"For example, Oswego still lost the 1987 NCAA Championship game and nothing can take that away from them."

They lost, but nobody won...

I was there...Plattsburgh won the game! They may have had their NCAA championship status taken away later, but the score was 8-3 in favor of Plattsburgh.

*****http://thebackporchband.150m.com/puck.jpg******

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Also, if by an act of god either of them were in position to be an NCAA ranked team, can they be ranked?

The other responses to your question are sufficient. But I see no reason why they couldn't be listed as NCAA ranked teams. Though I'll admit to not being an expert on NCAA regulations.

Besides, they were being punished retroactively for a problem the corrected PRIOR to this season. You can't vacate a result unless that particular game was directly affected by the infraction.

I disagree with this characterization of the infraction, but don't want to get into that in the tournament speculation thread.

If anyone was wondering, MIAC tiebreakers are insane.

Surprisingly, I was aware of this...

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

"For example, Oswego still lost the 1987 NCAA Championship game and nothing can take that away from them."



I was there...Plattsburgh won the game! They may have had their NCAA championship status taken away later, but the score was 8-3 in favor of Plattsburgh.

*****http://thebackporchband.150m.com/puck.jpg******

They vacated the game, not just the championship. So as far as the NCAA is concerned, plattsburgh was not involved with that game. Oswego still lost, but had no opponent.

Josh, I know you're aware of this. However, do you know what #4 means? And if #5 means "goal differential in games between tied teams", why they didn't say that like they did in #6? And while I'm asking, do you know what they were smoking when they came up with 3-7?

[aerogroup2]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

They vacated the game, not just the championship. So as far as the NCAA is concerned, plattsburgh was not involved with that game. Oswego still lost, but had no opponent.

Whatever......I just wanted to show off my 1987 Championship Puck!
*****http://thebackporchband.150m.com/puck.jpg******

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh, I know you're aware of this. However, do you know what #4 means? And if #5 means "goal differential in games between tied teams", why they didn't say that like they did in #6? And while I'm asking, do you know what they were smoking when they came up with 3-7?

I definitely knew this. Because I had the same questions. Think I talked to a coach about it, but I remember the league office being useful when I needed to talk to them, so I'd recommend giving them a quick call tomorrow to sort things out. Then tell the rest of us.

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I definitely knew this. Because I had the same questions. Think I talked to a coach about it, but I remember the league office being useful when I needed to talk to them, so I'd recommend giving them a quick call tomorrow to sort things out. Then tell the rest of us.

Will do, because there's a very good chance there'll be at least 1 tie after next week. I doubt it'll leave anyone on the outside of the playoffs, but the most likely one is st olaf and st thomas, who split with each other. And have the same win % against gustavus and hamline (0-2-2 vs. 1-3-0).

St thomas would have a better miac record, but the way tiebreaker #3 works, that might not mean anything.

[Hammer]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm amazed that the conference doesn't use total conference victories as a tiebreaker. Usually from what I've seen in the past that's one of the first tiebreakers used by most conferences.

[CardsFan91]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Question: If Plattsburgh wins the AQ and has its record stand at 19-4-4...won't they pretty much stay in third in the East regardless? Oswego has almost wrapped up the #1 spot in the region while it would take a meltdown from Norwich (cough, last year's conference tourny opener) for Plattsburgh to move up. Right? Also, what would it take for the Cardinals to host a Quarterfinal game and have the bye for the play-in round?

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Question: If Plattsburgh wins the AQ and has its record stand at 19-4-4...won't they pretty much stay in third in the East regardless? Oswego has almost wrapped up the #1 spot in the region while it would take a meltdown from Norwich (cough, last year's conference tourny opener) for Plattsburgh to move up. Right? Also, what would it take for the Cardinals to host a Quarterfinal game and have the bye for the play-in round?

Well with Elmira dropping down lately, plattsburgh has a good shot for the third seed. Even beating Oswego won't push the cards past the lakers (as long as Oswego wins both games this weekend), since the lakers would still hold head to head and win %. I doubt SOS would push plattsburgh over oswego by itself, and I have no idea what each team's record against ranked teams will be.

Hosting a QF and skipping the play in round is entirely up to how the NCAA committee doles out the play in games. They could all be in the east, all be in the west, or some combination thereof. I doubt we'll have any idea until the field is announced.

[Stormy8174]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Whatever......I just wanted to show off my 1987 Championship Puck!
*****http://thebackporchband.150m.com/puck.jpg******

You could always say that you saw Oswego lose 8-3 to a ghost team...that would look worse for Oswego then losing to Plattsburgh.

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I just went through my computer rankings to get a rough cut at what the Pool B situation was, and then went to the PWC. I found it verrrrrry interesting.

In my rankings, the top three are Elmira, Manhattanville, and Fitchburg
Elmira still leads Manhattanville, and when you look at the PWC, Elmira still edges out Manhattanville and Fitchburg. Here's what's interesting.

In my computer rankings, there is not a statistically significant difference between Manhattanville and Fitchburg, so again I went to look at the comparisons, and I found right now Fitchburg actually wins more comparisons than Manhattanville. This suggests a doomsday scenario in which through the playoffs and next weekend M'ville and Elmira beat each other up, Fitchburg could sneak in and take Pool B. That could mean no ECAC West team at the party.

Otherwise here's my Seedings Prediction (Against my better judgement, let's give the NESCAC to Bowdoin (If they don't win and Midd does, Amherst could scarf up the last Pool C)

Pool A
Norwich
Curry
GAC
Adrian
SNC
Bowdoin
Oswego

Pool B
Elmira

Pool C
St. Scholasitca (first in)
Plattsburgh
Middlebury

Seeds

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira
E7 Curry

W1 SNC
W2 STS
W3 GAC
W4 Adrian

Watch out, with Elmira's free fall, things are getting weird.

[mazile]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Here's what's interesting.

In my computer rankings, there is not a statistically significant difference between Manhattanville and Fitchburg, so again I went to look at the comparisons, and I found right now Fitchburg actually wins more comparisons than Manhattanville. This suggests a doomsday scenario in which through the playoffs and next weekend M'ville and Elmira beat each other up, Fitchburg could sneak in and take Pool B. That could mean no ECAC West team at the party.

The personalities in the room will prevent Fitchburg from getting a pool B – even if Fitchburg has the best numbers "in the room" Despite the NCAA's written criteria, they still need to get enough people to say yes.

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The personalities in the room will prevent Fitchburg from getting a pool B – even if Fitchburg has the best numbers "in the room" Despite the NCAA's written criteria, they still need to get enough people to say yes.

The reality is that Manhattanville's NC schedule this year was horrible. Their OWP and OOWP don't deserve any kind of at large bid. I would guess that if Elmira can win 2 of the 3 upcoming games (including a potential ECAC W tournament game) with M'ville that Elmira will be okay. If they go 2-1 or 1-2 Fitchburg should get a look. You are right, they probably won't, because the committee gets to use whatever weights they want. Make the process objective and we won't have to deal with conspiracy theories every year.

[valliant defender]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

[spwood]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

Buff State?
Geneseo?
Becker?
Assumption?
Cortland?
Nichols?
Morrisville?

Those are your non-conference road games. Not exactly a murderer's row of D-III talent.

The only decent non-conference games were against Curry and Williams...both at home....and both losses.

Sorry, that schedule doesn't deserve a lot of respect....

(By the way, welcome to the board. Manhattanville needs a voice in this forum...)