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joecct
10-26-2009, 10:07 AM
Today tryouts begin for the MASCAC schools. This Friday the first (and only) exhibition game kicks off the season with Monroe Community College (Rochester, NY) visiting the Lancers of Worcester St.

This year, we'll try a MASCAC Last Person Standing (rules to come) that will begin the week of 11/16. If anyone else has a contest, let us know.

Good luck to all the schools and may the best team win!

CROSBYNU63
10-26-2009, 12:18 PM
Today tryouts begin for the MASCAC schools. This Friday the first (and only) exhibition game kicks off the season with Monroe Community College (Rochester, NY) visiting the Lancers of Worcester St.

This year, we'll try a MASCAC Last Person Standing (rules to come) that will begin the week of 11/16. If anyone else has a contest, let us know.

Good luck to all the schools and may the best team win! As long as its Salem State.:D :D

joecct
10-27-2009, 07:03 AM
Not the way Josh voted.

If I had a peek into his computer, I'd guess
1. UMD
2. SSC / Fitchburg
3. Fitchburg /Salem St.
4. Plymouth / Westfield
5. Westfield / Plymouth
6. Worcester
7. Framingham

Not the way I would vote, but I'm just a bit biased! :)

norm1909
10-31-2009, 01:07 AM
Worcester State falls (http://www.wsclancerathletics.com/sports/mice/2009-10/schedule) to Monroe Junior College by a score of 5 to 3.

Josh Carey
10-31-2009, 03:06 AM
Not the way Josh voted.

If I had a peek into his computer, I'd guess
1. UMD
2. SSC / Fitchburg
3. Fitchburg /Salem St.
4. Plymouth / Westfield
5. Westfield / Plymouth
6. Worcester
7. Framingham

Not the way I would vote, but I'm just a bit biased! :)

Thankfully the way I vote doesn't matter for, well.... anything. But especially what teams can get Pool B considerations.

Frankly, I see the MASCAC shaping up much like the MCHA in previous years in the NCAA criteria. As a general rule, MASCAC teams are going to lose the majority of interconference games to the interlock teams, and maybe split with the remaining Northeast teams. In league play, the league as a whole will have a .500 record, and will probably be below .500 in non-conference games. That means that the average MASCAC team will have an opponent's winning percentage below .500. Likewise, since the teams MASCAC teams play the most are other MASCAC teams, the average MASCAC team will have an opponent's opponent's winning percentage below or near .500.

But what if a team like UMD or Salem State wins a vast majority of their league games, does moderately well (.500 or better) in nonconference games and wins the league? Well, then you're looking at a team with something in the range of about 20-7 (after playoffs), which puts you on that border of Pool C consideration, depending on your other criteria.

But that team faces some trouble. Their own record doesn't get counted in opponent's opponent's winning percentage, which means that despite having a better record, unless they played a stellar non-conference schedule, their opponent's winning percentage will be lower than the already questionable league average. This profile will be no match the the ECAC-West leaders, based on past indications. Even a best case scenario, like going 27-1-1 will likely face the same fate in terms of Pool B as the MCHA has faced in recent years.

I put the MASCAC chances at Pool B this year at less than 1%. Pool C is a competition the league champion might have a case for, depending on how things shake out. The problem? The league plays exactly two games against SUNYAC or ECAC West teams this year (both against Fredonia, though Salem does get a pair of NCHA teams). That means the teams the conference will be competing against for at-large bids (be it Pool B or Pool C) will not have on-ice competition (head to head or common opponents) to compare against. Recent history says strength of schedule numbers will play a significant enough role to keep the MASCAC out of the tournament this year. Obviously this is all guesswork based on expectations at this point, and the on-ice results might change all this (some non-conference wins would go a long long way), but having followed the process in way more depth than any reasonable person should for several years, this is my preseason opinion.

Factually-based disagreements are welcome.

Edit: This reply is all based on the premise that the "Josh" in the original post referred to me. I assume it does for a variety of reasons, but as the fact I can be referred to by just my first name on this board and be recognized is slightly concerning to me, I am including this disclaimer in the event that analysis is inaccurate.

NUProf
10-31-2009, 06:50 AM
An excellent analysis of the Pool B/C chances for the MASCAC. The big key is the non-conf record of the league as a whole. If it's not there, there's no chance. The situation is identical to what Adrian faced the last two years. If this happens to SSC or UMD, it will at least teach the Adrian faithful that it wasn't anti-Adrian bias, but rather the system that kept them home for the tournament.

Hockey NutCase
10-31-2009, 10:37 AM
Nice summary by Josh C. Let’s say one of the supposed top 4 MASCAC teams runs the table, wins the league and playoffs. Then their very slim NCAA hopes for this year all come down to how they perform in their NC games. Here are those NC games.

SALEM STATE - St Scholastica, St Norbert, So Maine, Colby, New England Coll, Bowdoin, St Anselm (pretty strong bunch of games).

UMASS DARTMOUTH - Becker, Suffolk, Babson, Stonehill, Salve Regina, UMass Boston, So New Hampshire (kind of weak lineup).

WESTFIELD STATE - Western NE, Franklin Pierce, Trinity, Amherst, Fredonia, Fredonia, Stonehill (a bit stronger than UMD).

FITCHBURG STATE - Franklin Pierce, Assumption, Wentworth or Worcester State, Amherst, Becker, New England Coll, Salve Regina (similar to UMD).

For this year’s MASCAC chances, SSC has the best shot ‘of consideration’ provided they dominate their league & play very competitive, winning hockey in their NC games. Still very slim. Will be like the Adrian watch all over again.

NUProf
10-31-2009, 10:42 AM
SALEM STATE - St Scholastica, St Norbert, So Maine, Colby, New England Coll, Bowdoin, St Anselm (pretty strong bunch of games).

UMASS DARTMOUTH - Becker, Suffolk, Babson, Stonehill, Salve Regina, UMass Boston, So New Hampshire (kind of weak lineup).

WESTFIELD STATE - Western NE, Franklin Pierce, Trinity, Amherst, Fredonia, Fredonia, Stonehill (a bit stronger than UMD).

FITCHBURG STATE - Franklin Pierce, Assumption, Wentworth or Worcester State, Amherst, Becker, New England Coll, Salve Regina (similar to UMD).

For this year’s MASCAC chances, SSC has the best shot ‘of consideration’ provided they dominate their league & play very competitive, winning hockey in their NC games. Still very slim. Will be like the Adrian watch all over again.

However, the issue will be how well the rest of league does for whoever wins it: UMD, Westfield, Fitchburg and SSC must all have decent NC records or it's over before it starts.

Josh Carey
10-31-2009, 12:10 PM
However, the issue will be how well the rest of league does for whoever wins it: UMD, Westfield, Fitchburg and SSC must all have decent NC records or it's over before it starts.

I counted 22 games in that list against D3 opponents (that number may be off). I'd say those teams would have to win 16 of them at least to offset the expected non-conference record of the other teams in the conference and have any chance at an at-large bid. That seemingly would be enough to get the overall strength of schedule above .500 for one of those teams and give them a chance if everything else falls in line. I'll let you all determine on your own if that can happen.

joecct
10-31-2009, 01:11 PM
Nice summary by Josh C. Let’s say one of the supposed top 4 MASCAC teams runs the table, wins the league and playoffs. Then their very slim NCAA hopes for this year all come down to how they perform in their NC games. Here are those NC games.

SALEM STATE - St Scholastica, St Norbert, So Maine, Colby, New England Coll, Bowdoin, St Anselm (pretty strong bunch of games).

UMASS DARTMOUTH - Becker, Suffolk, Babson, Stonehill, Salve Regina, UMass Boston, So New Hampshire (kind of weak lineup).

WESTFIELD STATE - Western NE, Franklin Pierce, Trinity, Amherst, Fredonia, Fredonia, Stonehill (a bit stronger than UMD).

FITCHBURG STATE - Franklin Pierce, Assumption, Wentworth or Worcester State, Amherst, Becker, New England Coll, Salve Regina (similar to UMD).

For this year’s MASCAC chances, SSC has the best shot ‘of consideration’ provided they dominate their league & play very competitive, winning hockey in their NC games. Still very slim. Will be like the Adrian watch all over again.

Further analysis:
Salem St: 1 does not count (St. A), 2 out of region, 4 in region. 2 NESCAC, 2 East

UMD: 2 no counters(Stonehill, SNHU) 5 in region. 3 NE, 2 East

Westfield: 2 no counters (Franklin Pierce, Stonehill) 5 in region. 2 SUNYAC, 2 NESCAC, 1 NE

Fitchburg: 2 no counters (Assumption, FP), 5 in region. 1 NESCAC, 1 E, 3/4 NE, 0/1 MASCAC

Looking into the crystal puck and assuming that the conference champ wins the RS and goes 16-2 or 15-3 in the RS...
Salem: Needs a split out west and 3-1 in region
UMD: 5-0 or 4-1
Westfield: Needs to split with Fredonia, and for a shot needs to sweep the NESCAC.
Firchburg: May have the easiest OOC schedule -- they need to beat NEC and go 4-0 against the rest.

Morrisville beating Elmira helps.

Now the Adrian scenario - a team goes 27-0. Can they be left out?

Oh and Josh - is there any other Josh worthy of consideration?? :)

NUProf
10-31-2009, 01:22 PM
Further analysis:
Salem St: 1 does not count (St. A), 2 out of region, 4 in region. 2 NESCAC, 2 East

UMD: 2 no counters(Stonehill, SNHU) 5 in region. 3 NE, 2 East

Westfield: 2 no counters (Franklin Pierce, Stonehill) 5 in region. 2 SUNYAC, 2 NESCAC, 1 NE

Fitchburg: 2 no counters (Assumption, FP), 5 in region. 1 NESCAC, 1 E, 3/4 NE, 0/1 MASCAC

Looking into the crystal puck and assuming that the conference champ wins the RS and goes 16-2 or 15-3 in the RS...
Salem: Needs a split out west and 3-1 in region
UMD: 5-0 or 4-1
Westfield: Needs to split with Fredonia, and for a shot needs to sweep the NESCAC.
Firchburg: May have the easiest OOC schedule -- they need to beat NEC and go 4-0 against the rest.

Morrisville beating Elmira helps.

Now the Adrian scenario - a team goes 27-0. Can they be left out?

Oh and Josh - is there any other Josh worthy of consideration?? :)
Beckett, perhaps?

Joe, that's 19 in region, DIII games for that quartet. You'd want the whole quartet to go like 15-4 in those games, which would happen with your "instructions" but you'd need all of them to happen or the winner could get (to coin a new verb) "Adrianed" unless they go 27-0.

Hockey NutCase
10-31-2009, 01:34 PM
Well at least it will be fun watching this play out, until all the supposed contenders lose their 1st game and knock themselves outta consideration. Might as well add Plymouth State to this group. Such pressure for the players & coaches involved, makes every game count, great for the fans. One caveat - MASCAC has been an ongoing full sports conf with lots of heritage/legacy. Does it have some old IOU chip in its closet that it can pull out and use come voting time with the NCAA muckity mucks?

Josh Carey
10-31-2009, 06:12 PM
Oh and Josh - is there any other Josh worthy of consideration?? :)

I sure as hell hope so. It's a pretty common name...


Well at least it will be fun watching this play out, until all the supposed contenders lose their 1st game and knock themselves outta consideration. Might as well add Plymouth State to this group. Such pressure for the players & coaches involved, makes every game count, great for the fans. One caveat - MASCAC has been an ongoing full sports conf with lots of heritage/legacy. Does it have some old IOU chip in its closet that it can pull out and use come voting time with the NCAA muckity mucks?

Sort of, yes, the MASCAC does have such an I-O-U chip it can pull out due to its legacy.

Currently there is a limitation on single-sport conferences applying for automatic bids in Division-III Tournaments in any sport. This is a much bigger issue in basketball or football where there are hundreds of teams and **** near as many conferences. So the NCAA has, at least temporarily, put a stop to giving single sport conferences automatic bids to stop new conferences from popping up.

There are two ways to get around this. 1) is to get a waiver from the NCAA, 2) is to be an established multisport conference that adds a new sport.

1) Is the process the MCHA used*. They said to the NCAA, essentially "Hey losers, we've been around for a decade, clearly this isn't some fast one we're trying to pull on you. We're an established league that just for our seventh team, please let us in." The NCAA saw reason and let them in (This was only the first of two waivers the MCHA needed**).

2) Because of their multisport legitimacy, the MASCAC gets to use this option. Play two years with the same seven teams, and in year 3 they get the AQ. This would NOT be an option if the same seven teams banded together and formed the "Mass. Hockey Conference (MHC)" now because the waiver the MCHA received would immediately get denied.

So in that way, the MASCAC is receiving a credit for its legacy by being allowed an opportunity to get an AQ relatively painlessly, But your question referred to more would that come into play when the committee meets to determine the NCAA field this season.

No. Not even a little. While nobody on the outside has been able to accurately determine how the committee looks at the numbers it looks at, we do know exactly what numbers they do look at. Somebody saying "this team deserves to be in the tournament, screw the numbers" does not happen.

That being said, there has been one recent oddity in 2007, when UMD (of course) leaped from #4 to #1 in the eastern rankings in a week there was no compelling reason for them to. It was widely speculated at the time that the move was designed to protect UMD (which would earn a Pool A bid into the tournament) and give the eastern region a better chance of lining up Pool C candidates. This of course was never proven and is what led to the UMD hosting fiasco that likely contributed to the Corsairs losing to Middlebury. In the two years sense, there has been no noticeable outliers like this, however, and a solid winning percentage supported by a strong opponent's winning percentage*** seems to be the way to get an at-large bid to the tournament. Which is why MASCAC teams are in trouble this year.

* Don't say the NCAA never does the right thing for the MCHA.

** The second was a waiver of the two-year waiting period, sort of. Essentially the MCHA didn't put in the paperwork to apply for an AQ until last year. With the two years with current membership requirement, that means the second year would technically be this upcoming season, even though the seven teams have been together for two years already. The MCHA once again said "Could you please respect the intention of the rule and gives us an AQ this year, rather than follow the letter of the rule?" The NCAA agreed. Don't say the NCAA never does the right thing for the MCHA.

*** The use of the NCAA's criteria "opponent's winning percentage" is very deliberate here, rather than calling it "strength of schedule." If you gave me two teams, both 16-10 and .500 in their league and told me that one played in the NCHA and faced mostly MIAC teams in nonconference games and the other was in the MIAC and faced mostly MCHA teams in nonconference games, I am going to be much more impressed with the first team. But if a third team had played each of those teams, their records would be equally weighted in opponent's winning percentage. Yes, their opponent's opponent's winning percentage should reflect the change, but this is one of my major concerns with the NCAA process.

This post largely made possible by reporting done by Matthew Webb.

penman
11-02-2009, 08:13 PM
UMD really burning up the non-conference schedule again this year. Some real sisters of the weak out there. Think the coach is striving to be the quickest to 600 wins. This has always killed them come playoff time in their league and the NCAAs. Good teams are supposed to get better as the season progresses not the other way around.

Gotta give credit to the other schools who while they might not have the talent of UMD, at least tries to have their players play up or beyond their talent level by at least scheduling some schools that are real hockey schools. I fully expect the goaler (Burek) to have just over 1.00 GAA based upon what I see form the schedule. If he doesn't get bored to death and let some cheapies in (or catch cold from standing around) he should be right around the 1.00 mark.

jerrynu26
11-03-2009, 09:46 AM
UMD really burning up the non-conference schedule again this year. Some real sisters of the weak out there. Think the coach is striving to be the quickest to 600 wins. This has always killed them come playoff time in their league and the NCAAs. Good teams are supposed to get better as the season progresses not the other way around.


I think this year's schedule is the result of both the forming of the new league, and pressure to reduce travel costs. Babson is still on the schedule, most likely due to their proximity.
Last year UMD did schedule Utica, Colby, Bowdoin, and Babson. Colby did have a down year, but that wasn't known when the schedule was set up. Conn College and UMB were also on their schedule. The year before that had Babson and Norwich on their schedule. It looks (to me) like they are trying to schedule tougher opponents as much as possible.

joecct
11-05-2009, 10:43 AM
Preseason coaches' poll is out (first place votes in parenthesis):


1. Salem State (4) 46 points
2. UMass Dartmouth (2) 42 points
3. Westfield State (1) 32 points
4. Fitchburg State 30 points
5. Plymouth State 24 points
6. Worcester State 14 points
7. Framingham State 8 points

Interesting...even with all the question marks, SSC is voted #1.

nefan
11-05-2009, 09:47 PM
I think this year's schedule is the result of both the forming of the new league, and pressure to reduce travel costs. Babson is still on the schedule, most likely due to their proximity.
Last year UMD did schedule Utica, Colby, Bowdoin, and Babson. Colby did have a down year, but that wasn't known when the schedule was set up. Conn College and UMB were also on their schedule. The year before that had Babson and Norwich on their schedule. It looks (to me) like they are trying to schedule tougher opponents as much as possible.

When they (UMD) think they are going to be good they will schedule some tougher games, when they are not sure they will schedule weak teams. I like the 600 win philosophy!! That is the difference between UMD and Curry!! Curry has been playing one of the toughest NC schedules in the nation for the last 7 years, and probably the toughest of any of the Eastern schools. Look at who they have this year: Manhattanville, Tufts (??), Hobart, Norwich, Potsdam or NEC, Geneseo, Utica, Babson, Bowdoin. Curry gets 9 NC games and they schedule the toughest they can get!! And next year they are already going to Plattsburgh for the Cardinal Classic.

CROSBYNU63
11-06-2009, 08:08 PM
Looks like Fox likes his new surroundings. Why did he leave Salem State?

joecct
11-06-2009, 08:40 PM
Looks like Fox likes his new surroundings. Why did he leave Salem State?IMO, because the new league is not as good compared to the ECAC-E and he wanted to goto a better league.

CROSBYNU63
11-08-2009, 10:52 AM
Well I hope that is not a theme that plays out in the future. Not a good thing for the new league


IMO, because the new league is not as good compared to the ECAC-E and he wanted to goto a better league.