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From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

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  • From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

    Well, the Brent Brekke era is about to begin, and hopefully that means we'll be able to have some less painful discussions here in the coming years. So, with hope but without expectations for an immediate miracle, here's a thread for 2019-20.

    As the season approaches, I want to let you know about a project I started last spring, before Mark Morris was fired. I wanted to try to make some sense of the carnage of the Morris era. So I created a pile of graphs for each of the last three seasons, as well as some graphs covering SLU hockey history and the Carvel-Morris years. And I plan to continue doing the graph thing this season. The graphs are in spreadsheet files at Google Docs -- use the tabs at the bottom of each spreadsheet to move between graphs:

    SLU Stats History
    SLU Stats 2016-2017
    SLU Stats 2017-2018
    SLU Stats 2018-2019
    SLU Stats 2019-2020

    Obviously the file for this season doesn't have any data in it yet, but I'll add to it as the games get played.

    Here are a few things I thought were interesting as I was compiling those stats last spring:

    1. People often point out that it takes freshmen a while to adjust to the college game during the fall semester before they really start to become full contributors. Last year's team provided a good opportunity to look at how that shows up in freshman scoring, because there were six freshman forwards. And boy, did it ever show up. In the first quarter of the season, SLU's freshmen scored one goal. Not one goal apiece. Just one goal. But in the second quarter of the season, they scored 8. That increase accounted for all of the entire team's improvement in scoring in the second quarter -- the upperclassmen scored at exactly the same rate during both of those quarters.

    2. A common opinion was that the team's crash started at the beginning of Morris' second year, when stars such as Gavin Bayreuther, Kyle Hayton, and Eric Sweetman had just departed and the team was a good bit less experienced. And if you look at those two seasons' overall records -- 17-13-7 and then 8-27-2 -- that opinion seems obvious. But in fact, if you break each season into quarters, you can see that the disaster actually started when the calendar flipped to February in Morris' FIRST year, when those stars and other experienced players were still in Canton. From that point, they finished with a dismal 2-6-1 run -- almost as bad as the horrific season that followed.

    3. And finally ... Two excuses that Morris often used were inexperience and injuries. And as I said above, there was less experience in his second year -- and there was even less in his third. And as for injuries, the team really was hampered by them during his second year. I wanted to get a sense of how big those factors really were. So I did some analysis to adjust for experience and injuries, to put those teams on as equal a footing as possible with the teams in previous years. You can see the graphs of that analysis in the SLU Stats History spreadsheet -- and those graphs make it clear that the team's results were still awful even after giving them a break for injuries and an insanely huge break for inexperience. The numbers I came up with convinced me that those really were excuses on Morris' part, not legitimate reasons for the implosion.

    That's the end of my post mortem. Now it's time to start rising from the ashes.
    Last edited by SluStatsMan; 09-22-2019, 12:06 AM. Reason: Add color to links
    Canton High School '76
    SLU '81
    KSLU game broadcasts '80-'81
    SLU fan '63-infinity

  • #2
    Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

    Thanks, SSM--now we'll be able to see how soon we beat the coach of my era, George Menard. After following the team to Michigan last year, I was pretty discouraged. Now there is reason to hope.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

      Originally posted by apple2k View Post
      Thanks, SSM--now we'll be able to see how soon we beat the coach of my era, George Menard. After following the team to Michigan last year, I was pretty discouraged. Now there is reason to hope.
      Keeping up with George over the long haul would be quite a feat! Hoping it happens...
      Canton High School '76
      SLU '81
      KSLU game broadcasts '80-'81
      SLU fan '63-infinity

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

        Ugh. This is bad.

        https://***********/CapCareyWDT/stat...96415324307461

        Word from one of our friends on this forum is that there's no way Appleton will be ready in time. Hence this news. SLU had better be given control of every single seat in Cheel.
        Canton High School '76
        SLU '81
        KSLU game broadcasts '80-'81
        SLU fan '63-infinity

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

          Originally posted by SluStatsMan View Post
          Ugh. This is bad.

          https://***********/CapCareyWDT/stat...96415324307461

          Word from one of our friends on this forum is that there's no way Appleton will be ready in time. Hence this news. SLU had better be given control of every single seat in Cheel.
          Probably why Regis “Pierre” McGuire’s son just committed to Colgate
          Brandon Pirri: Turk would give it to Jagr. That's awesome! Jagr's untouchable. And he would give it to Jagr.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

            Originally posted by SluStatsMan View Post
            Ugh. This is bad.

            https://***********/CapCareyWDT/stat...96415324307461

            Word from one of our friends on this forum is that there's no way Appleton will be ready in time. Hence this news. SLU had better be given control of every single seat in Cheel.
            Also word on Route 11 is Women are playing at the Roos house!! PATHETIC is the only word to describe not having the ice ready. AD must be fired!!! #bobmustgo #hireclownsgetcircus

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by wildcatcard View Post
              Also word on Route 11 is Women are playing at the Roos house!! PATHETIC is the only word to describe not having the ice ready. AD must be fired!!! #bobmustgo #hireclownsgetcircus
              Apparently, the contractor will be incurring penalties for every week he is late. The fault is not the AD's, it's the contractor or the person(s) that selected the contractor that need their feet held to the fire.

              How many construction projects you know that came in on time?
              CCT '77 & '78
              4 kids
              5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
              1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

              ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
              - Benjamin Franklin

              Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

              I want to live forever. So far, so good.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                Originally posted by joecct View Post
                Apparently, the contractor will be incurring penalties for every week he is late. The fault is not the AD's, it's the contractor or the person(s) that selected the contractor that need their feet held to the fire.

                How many construction projects you know that came in on time?
                The AD is in charge of hiring, oversight of the upgrade. It is his duty to hire the most qualified people to run it. Also, on a project like this it should be a daily charge not a weekly. When you hire clowns you get a circus. Think of all the people that have booked hotel rooms, planed to come watch that are now in limbo. Plus i'm sure the hotels don't have a cancel option for this, so out the money no matter what. This alone is not a reason to fire him, however you add this to the other issues around this program and you have cause.

                Most project I have been involved with have been b/c reasonable time tables are set. Then once agreed to both parties agree on penalties. This was brought to the powers to be, early May that time table was not going to work. Project should have been scaled back for next off season to complete. I have to wonder, if it will be ready for ECAC League play.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                  Originally posted by wildcatcard View Post
                  Also word on Route 11 is Women are playing at the Roos house!! PATHETIC is the only word to describe not having the ice ready. AD must be fired!!! #bobmustgo #hireclownsgetcircus
                  Shoulda hired CCT's contractor....they've got ice! Just kidding ! As joecct said, renovating old buildings always takes logner and usually cost more money...than originally planned. If anything, perhaps an ambitious project schedule is to blame. Better to underpromise and over delivery.

                  The good news is the school is fully committed to the program and is doing the needed upgrades ... short term pain, long term gain.
                  ""Ralph is the Chuck Norris of this board. Ralph doesnt sleep he just waits." - fishcore12

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                    Twitter has the specifications. Any SLU home games prior to 11/29 will be played at SUNY-Canton. The 11/1 game vs CCT will be at Cheel and CCT will reciprocate with an additional NC game at SLU in 20/21.
                    CCT '77 & '78
                    4 kids
                    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                    - Benjamin Franklin

                    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                      Originally posted by turk181 View Post
                      Probably why Regis “Pierre” McGuire’s son just committed to Colgate
                      If he inherited his dad's, um, "intellect", he probably couldn't get in to SLU.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                        Oh what a difference a year makes. Night and day difference between where we left off last season to where we are now after just one week. We've got a long ways to go for sure, but this opening weekend showed that we are on the right track. Back home next weekend, albeit not at the friendly confines of Appleton Arena, but at SUNY Canton instead. Regardless, it'll be nice to be home. Keep this up guys. Way to go Saints!
                        St. Lawrence Skating Saints Hockey

                        6 time ECAC Champions: 1962, 1988, 1989, 1992, 2000, 2001
                        4 time ECAC Runner-Ups: 1964, 1987, 1991, 1999
                        2 time ECAC Cleary Cup Champions: 2000, 2007
                        16 NCAA Tournament Appearances: 1952, 1955, 1956, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1992, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007
                        9 NCAA Frozen Four Appearances: 1952, 1955, 1956, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1988, 2000
                        2 time NCAA Tournament Runner-Ups: 1961, 1988

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                          A really encouraging start to the season. Mercyhurst isn't very tough competition, so things certainly aren't going to go this well every weekend. But after this performance, I'm looking forward to watching this season's games, unlike a year ago when I was dreading it.

                          I've started filling in the graphs on my stat spreadsheet for this season. With only two games, it's not much to look at yet, but here it is:
                          SLU Stats 2019-2020
                          (See the first post in this thread for the links to all my spreadsheets.)
                          Last edited by SluStatsMan; 10-13-2019, 12:02 PM.
                          Canton High School '76
                          SLU '81
                          KSLU game broadcasts '80-'81
                          SLU fan '63-infinity

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                            Couldn't agree more with you guys. Watching on Flo Hockey, I was especially impressed by our breakouts--short, crisp passes and yet still the occasional stretch pass--which connected!
                            And, I was shocked-SHOCKED-to see the compete level in a couple of absolutely dominant O-zone cycles where we completely hemmed in the Lakers for extended periods.
                            Now, if our coaches can just find a TJ who flies under the radar, somebody who can take 10-12 shots a game, we'll be back!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: From the ashes: St. Lawrence Skating Saints 2019-20

                              Hey everyone, it's time once again for the ECAC Pick the Standings Contest! It takes about 2 minutes of your time for a whole season of fun and a chance at eternal glory!

                              (forgive the blatant copy-pasting to every ECAC-related thread)
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

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