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ticapnews
03-18-2019, 06:54 PM
It is live (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/) but one assumes it will change if CC wins tonight's contest...

If all favorites win (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c8f1daf05fca)

1t St. Cloud State
1t Massachusetts
3 Minnesota State
4 Minnesota Duluth
5 Quinnipiac
6 Denver
7 Ohio State
8 Cornell
9 Northeastern
10 Clarkson
11 Arizona State
12 Notre Dame
13 Harvard
14 Providence
15 Bowling Green
31t American International
----
16t Penn State


Manchester Providence Allentown Fargo
Mass Mankato UMD St Cloud
Ohio State Denver Quinnipiac Cornell
Clarkson Arizona St Notre Dame Northeastern
BGSU Providence Harvard AIC

wsummers
03-18-2019, 06:59 PM
Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.

ticapnews
03-18-2019, 07:16 PM
Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.

If all the favorites win but Penn State upsets, the Nittany Lions move right into that 12 spot. Nice symmetry.

ticapnews
03-18-2019, 08:08 PM
This year's parley:
WCHA: Bowling Green
NCHC: Western Michigan/CC
ECAC: Brown
Hockey East: Boston College/Boston University
B1G: No one
AHA: No one

pc88
03-18-2019, 10:31 PM
Colorado College wins


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hockeybuckeye
03-18-2019, 10:35 PM
Big ten will have two..so if Notre Dame loses next weekend Penn State will take its place as a lower seed.If Penn State wins next weekend they are automatically at Allentown as the host school and can't be placed anywhere else.

ticapnews
03-18-2019, 11:00 PM
Things I think (this will be updated as I run more scenarios)
If you find exceptions to any of these please post them in this thread.

St Cloud will be the #1 overall seed and play the AHA champion in Fargo. (Edit 1: A scenario where Penn State wins and 2 4 seeds are Hockey East teams means St Cloud would play the #15 seed, BC or BU)
UMass will be the top seed in the east and will play at either Providence or Manchester, depending on PC and attendance concerns.
Mankato is the third 1 seed, can finish 2-4
Minnesota Duluth has the inside track for the final 1 seed. The Bulldogs can only lose it by losing twice next weekend while Denver wins twice.
Denver can conceivably drop to a 3 seed or snag the final 1 seed but are almost certainly a 2.
Likewise, Quinnipiac can fall to a 3 seed but are almost certainly a 2.
Ohio State, Northeastern, Clarkson and Arizona State all appear to be locks for the national tournament. I can get ASU to 12 but the Sun Devils are still the last team in. Likewise for the Golden Knights.
Providence needs to hope the favorites run the table.
Cornell and Harvard still have work to do.
Only the winner of the B1G Championship (and OSU) will make the field. The loser is out.
Bowling Green can lose to Mankato and still get in (see the first post in the thread)
Everyone from Western Michigan (#17 Pairwise) down is no longer in contention, except for the remaining autobid teams.

I'm sure Jim Dahl will be along in no time to tell me I'm wrong. :)

Numbers
03-19-2019, 12:00 AM
Concerning Bowling Green.....

I think it is true to say that they are in, even with a loss, UNLESS:
Any of the following win Conference Tournaments:
BC
BU
Brown
CC

sshablak
03-19-2019, 07:33 AM
ECAC gets Four in !

klbaum1077
03-19-2019, 08:55 AM
Concerning Bowling Green.....

I think it is true to say that they are in, even with a loss, UNLESS:
Any of the following win Conference Tournaments:
BC
BU
Brown
CC

That is what i have found too

ticapnews
03-19-2019, 09:09 AM
ECAC gets 5 teams in (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90e9d752ddb)
UMass #1 overall (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90eb208fd3f)
An example of the parley in action (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90ecfa5b155)

JimDahl
03-19-2019, 09:30 AM
I'm sure Jim Dahl will be along in no time to tell me I'm wrong. :)

I'm a bit hamstrung by some confusion right now. Both USCHO and CHN are treating the Big Ten and WCHA on campus championship games as neutral site games, whereas I'm treating them as home games. That's actually turning out to matter. It would be trivial enough for me to just switch those games to neutral so we all agree, but I'm not sure that's right (and in fact can completely see how they would've accidentally implemented their calculators to always add in conference tournament game results as neutral site). The real question is what does the NCAA think?

Meanwhile, here's what can happen if those games are home games:
https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

ticapnews
03-19-2019, 09:58 AM
I'm a bit hamstrung by some confusion right now. Both USCHO and CHN are treating the Big Ten and WCHA on campus championship games as neutral site games, whereas I'm treating them as home games. That's actually turning out to matter. It would be trivial enough for me to just switch those games to neutral so we all agree, but I'm not sure that's right (and in fact can completely see how they would've accidentally implemented their calculators to always add in conference tournament game results as neutral site). The real question is what does the NCAA think?

Meanwhile, here's what can happen if those games are neutral site:
https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

Logic says they are home games for the higher seeds because the site was determined by results on the ice. It isn't like Hockey East or NCHC where the site was predetermined regardless of results.

And now the search for the handful of results that gets Union into the tournament... :D

Numbers
03-19-2019, 10:31 AM
Logic says they are home games for the higher seeds because the site was determined by results on the ice. It isn't like Hockey East or NCHC where the site was predetermined regardless of results.

And now the search for the handful of results that gets Union into the tournament... :D

Question: The quarterfinals: Do they count as neutral or home ice?
Big 10 Semis: Neutral or home ice?

That's the precedent. Whatever those are, the final weekend should be as well.

JimDahl
03-19-2019, 11:16 AM
Question: The quarterfinals: Do they count as neutral or home ice?
Big 10 Semis: Neutral or home ice?

That's the precedent. Whatever those are, the final weekend should be as well.
Yep, those are all considered home. That's what makes me think the correct treatment of these is home (despite it not being what anyone else did). My guess is that no one made the conscious decision to treat those specific games as neutral, but that the calculators were designed and implemented back when all games in the calculator were neutral.

But, I'm not positive those games will be considered home games, I just think they should be, so am going with that until I can somehow verify.

TheRevengeance
03-19-2019, 12:48 PM
Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.

manurespreader
03-19-2019, 12:55 PM
I got BG in unless: BU/'BC win out, or CC wins out. Otherwise I can't find a way BG is out.

jjmc85
03-19-2019, 01:02 PM
ECAC gets 5 teams in (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90e9d752ddb)
UMass #1 overall (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90eb208fd3f)
An example of the parley in action (https://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c90ecfa5b155)

Weird. When I do the same thing on CHN, seems like SCSU is still number 1 (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php?update=1&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bs1%5D=5&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bs2%5D=49&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bf%5D=5&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bs1%5D=18&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bs2%5D=14&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bf%5D=14&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bs1%5D=27&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bs2%5D=41&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bf%5D=41&yatc%5B6%5D%5Bf%5D=11&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bs1%5D=52&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bs2%5D=20&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bc%5D=16&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bf%5D=20&yatc%5B10%5D%5Bf%5D=43#.XJEfofZFy3A) :confused::confused:

TheRevengeance
03-19-2019, 01:34 PM
Jim, I tweeted at CHN asking and it appears they intended for these to be calculated as home games but it isn't happening for some reason. So it looks like you're right.

Update: CHN seems to have updated their calculator to have the home/road weights applied. Uscho and CHN now give me different RPI results for those games. If you're still seeing the same results on CHN maybe clear your browser.

The Exiled One
03-19-2019, 02:05 PM
Weird. When I do the same thing on CHN, seems like SCSU is still number 1 (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php?update=1&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bs1%5D=5&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bs2%5D=49&yatc%5B1%5D%5Bf%5D=5&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bs1%5D=18&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bs2%5D=14&yatc%5B4%5D%5Bf%5D=14&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bs1%5D=27&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bs2%5D=41&yatc%5B5%5D%5Bf%5D=41&yatc%5B6%5D%5Bf%5D=11&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bs1%5D=52&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bs2%5D=20&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bc%5D=16&yatc%5B9%5D%5Bf%5D=20&yatc%5B10%5D%5Bf%5D=43#.XJEfofZFy3A) :confused::confused:
Not only that, but if you look at the tables for that scenario it shows a different RPI and St. Cloud still wins 58 comparisons. Something is broken there.

EDIT: Never mind, figured it out. ticapnews forget to put in a result for the NCHC third place game. SCSU can lose comparisons to Northeastern and Union (http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_5c9121b3ce797).