UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

[wildcatdc]

Wow, so I might not be able to walk up to the window and get a cheap gen adm ticket at 6:15 pm, stand in top row next to the band for the first period, and then join my cousins in an empty reserved seat close to the UNH bench for periods two and three next Saturday? Maybe I would need to stay in the end zone for the entire game, assuming that I can get a ticket? Who woulda thunk that in mid-November, when the talk was we would never again see a sell out at the Whitt, as there are now too many competing distractions for people's time on social media, blah, blah, blah.

Not to be a nattering nabob of negativity, but a lot of things need to break right for the Cats to finish with an above 0.500 record. If we win the next four, which we should, and lose the last five, which we probably also should, we end up with a 0.500 regular season, and a probable visit to Conte for two of three, in which we would need to win two to get back above 0.500 and a trip to the Gahdin. And, then we would need to split there (make the HEA final game) to preserve the better than 0.500 record. And, I am sure that all of us would be delighted with that turn of events; I know that I would, as I would be well on the upside of the pre-season total number of wins at 13.5 in the over/under contest. :-)

Funny - last night after the win, I decided to look back to the last time we were over .500 after 25 games. It wasn’t nearly as long as I’d thought. In 2016-2017, we were 11-10-4. That team then went 1-7-1 (including a sweep at the end of the season to UConn) the rest of the way, and then 3-3 in the HEA tourney, with a 2-1 series win with Mack and a 2-1 UML series loss.

My hope is that this team is playing to the upside, and not to the downside. Maine is playing reasonably well (glad we’re at home for those 2 games), and Vermont is stirring - and those games are at the Gut.

I really thought we’d get 9 points in these 6 games in the run up to NU/UML, but that’s looking less like likely after this last weekend.

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

Funny - last night after the win, I decided to look back to the last time we were over .500 after 25 games. It wasn’t nearly as long as I’d thought. In 2016-2017, we were 11-10-4. That team then went 1-7-1 (including a sweep at the end of the season to UConn) the rest of the way, and then 3-3 in the HEA tourney, with a 2-1 series win with Mack and a 2-1 UML series loss.

My hope is that this team is playing to the upside, and not to the downside. Maine is playing reasonably well (glad we’re at home for those 2 games), and Vermont is stirring - and those games are at the Gut.

I really thought we’d get 9 points in these 6 games in the run up to NU/UML, but that’s looking less like likely after this last weekend.

Well frankly at this point in the season, there's so much that can happen as we all know. The point thing is crazy tight and it's going to get more heated as we go. We have our hands full regardless of whom we are playing right now as you say, as all teams are cognizant to the fact that someone's not going to play in the post season in the Hockey East!

UNH looked so good last night but from what I read so did Maine, so did Vermont in their wins so here we go! Making no delusions about the situation; but, if we can come to play from the get go (and that's the important part) we could get some crucial points and it all starts this weekend.

Have to really watch it getting caught behind early on even tho we have won some of those games of course but it's more fun playing with a lead than chasing one. Like you I am glad we are playing these two games here and it's 'never easy' to win at the 'Gutt. (as I know) I'm sure Souza will have them 'stick to what's been working' and keep them on the path....It's going to be quite the ride. We have players just hitting their stride right now; in addition to Crookshank, Naz, and Liam B players like BvR, Chris Miller are playing the best hockey of their careers! The D continues to be strong esp on the pk and Robinson is playing extremely well.

Speaking of that season you mention, remember it well (heck I better it wasn't that long ago haha). Gotta get in the tournament first and see where we land, and I'd echo Chuck's sentiment about playing us in later rounds should we advance coz ya just never know!

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

My hope is that this team is playing to the upside, and not to the downside. Maine is playing reasonably well (glad we’re at home for those 2 games), and Vermont is stirring - and those games are at the Gut.

I really thought we’d get 9 points in these 6 games in the run up to NU/UML, but that’s looking less like likely after this last weekend.

O ye of little faith. 3 points from 2 games with UConn was probably to be expected, but all it's gonna take to get to the 9 points out of 6 games is either two more 3 point weekends like that, OR a sweep and a split weekend. Considering that UNH is the in-form team of the group - yes, UVM swept last weekend, but that was against the 'Mack, and they're not too far ahead of last place, while UMaine had a good showing against UMass at home, but are the road team next weekend - I think it's equally likely they'll earn 7 points as it is that they'll earn 5 points. So six points sounds pretty good to me.

Realistically, at this point, I think UNH is merely playing for HE quarterfinal playoff positioning, but they seem to be reveling in this newfound winning stuff, so these relatively meaningless games take on more meaning for them than it does for the likes of Lowell and Northeastern. Both of those teams give UNH a chance to get a head start on playoffs-style hockey, but they might not be as focused as UNH. Northeastern, for one, will be a couple of weeks post-Beanpot when they come up here for a pair. Lowell, right now, is the only team close to UNH in terms of current form, but they're hitting a tough stretch of games shortly, and who knows if these games will have meaning by the time they arrive in about a month. If they don't - I say, advantage UNH.

If I'm Snively65 right now, I'm really liking my chances at the 14 win projection. A lot.

And who among us thought this would even be close to the case two months ago ...

[Snively65]

O ye of little faith. 3 points from 2 games with UConn was probably to be expected, but all it's gonna take to get to the 9 points out of 6 games is either two more 3 point weekends like that, OR a sweep and a split weekend. Considering that UNH is the in-form team of the group - yes, UVM swept last weekend, but that was against the 'Mack, and they're not too far ahead of last place, while UMaine had a good showing against UMass at home, but are the road team next weekend - I think it's equally likely they'll earn 7 points as it is that they'll earn 5 points. So six points sounds pretty good to me.

Realistically, at this point, I think UNH is merely playing for HE quarterfinal playoff positioning, but they seem to be reveling in this newfound winning stuff, so these relatively meaningless games take on more meaning for them than it does for the likes of Lowell and Northeastern. Both of those teams give UNH a chance to get a head start on playoffs-style hockey, but they might not be as focused as UNH. Northeastern, for one, will be a couple of weeks post-Beanpot when they come up here for a pair. Lowell, right now, is the only team close to UNH in terms of current form, but they're hitting a tough stretch of games shortly, and who knows if these games will have meaning by the time they arrive in about a month. If they don't - I say, advantage UNH.

If I'm Snively65 right now, I'm really liking my chances at the 14 win projection. A lot.

And who among us thought this would even be close to the case two months ago ...

Ok, but who else took the over on 13.5 wins at the beginning of the season? I know that I did, and I think that maybe HR? Need to check the old thread. :-)

I ageee with Chuck, DC; I think that your prediction of 9 points in these 6 games was spot on. I would prefer a sweep this weekend and a split at UVM, rather than two ties at the Gutt, as that would get be closer to 14 wins. Moreover, we have had enough ties this season, probably eight ties is enough for two seasons.

[Dan]

I see us going 5-3-1 for the last nine games. two wins with Maine, split with Vermont, split with Northeastern, split with UML, and then a tie with Northeastern to finish 10-8-6.

I'll do a reset after that with some tourny predictions.

UNH is beating the teams they should be beating. That's a step forward in and of itself...

However, UNH is still just 0-6-5 against the top-34 teams in the PWR. Currently, Maine is 31st, Lowell is 17th and Northeastern is 13th. If the Wildcats finished the season 4-2-1 in their last seven games against the top-half of college hockey after winning zero to date, that would be quite a feat...

UNH is also just 2-5-6 on the road. That makes the UVM series much more difficult. The Catamounts looked awful when I saw them in Colorado Springs - but Stefanos Lekkas just might be the best goalie in college hockey this season. Anything less than a split in Burlington would be disappointing, but expecting more might be optimistic...

If I was predicting, I'd guess UNH splits at Vermont, drops both road games against NU/UML and goes 2-3/3-2 in its five remaining home games...

Making the 13.5 over/under almost prescient...

---

Is UNH playing well or are they feasting on the bottom dwellers of college hockey at home? Both?

In their last 15 games they are 8-2-5! Results in 13-of-15 games regardless of competition is nothing to sneeze at. Especially given how they fared against this level of competition the last few years.

But, nine of those games were at The Whitt (6-1-2), while six were away (2-1-3) and only three (0-2-1) were against the top-30 in college hockey...

[Snively65]

UNH is beating the teams they should be beating. That's a step forward in and of itself...

However, UNH is still just 0-6-5 against the top-34 teams in the PWR and 0-5-2 against the top-22. Currently, Maine is 31st, Lowell is 17th and Northeastern is 13th. If the Wildcats finished the season 4-2-1 in their last seven games against the top-half of college hockey after winning zero to date, that would be quite a feat...

UNH is also just 2-5-6 on the road. That makes the UVM series much more difficult. The Catamounts looked awful when I saw them in Colorado Springs - but Stefanos Lekkas just might be the best goalie in college hockey this season. Anything less than a split in Burlington would be disappointing, but expecting more might be optimistic...

If I was predicting, I'd guess UNH splits at Vermont, drops both road games against NU/UML and goes 2-3/3-2 in its five remaining home games...

Making the 13.5 over/under almost prescient...

---

I do not get how the 13.5 over/under is prescient; we are just making predictions, some of us before the season began. What say (predict) you on this coming weekend at Lake Whitt?

[Dan]

I do not get how the 13.5 over/under is prescient; we are just making predictions, some of us before the season began. What say (predict) you on this coming weekend at Lake Whitt?

I'm just saying 13.5 was a nails over under as it seems right on the money - the way things stand right now it seems that finishing with either 13 or 14 wins just might be the most likely outcomes. My guess below was 12 or 13 regular season wins, follow that with a one-win first round playoff loss and you're straddling the number perfectly...

So a great projection. Good foresight, that's all.

---

As for this weekend, I think UNH and Maine are the same team, in the same situation and competing directly for play-off positioning. I'd guess this weekend features a couple of close games and a split - with the potential for one team (more likely UNH) to sneak out three points. A sweep either way would surprise me.

I think the game up at Alfond mirrors the type of games we might see down in Durham. Lots of back and forth and momentum swings between two even and imperfect teams...

[Snively65]

I'm just saying 13.5 was a nails over under as it seems right on the money - the way things stand right now it seems that finishing with either 13 or 14 wins just might be the most likely outcomes. My guess below was 12 or 13 regular season wins, follow that with a one-win first round playoff loss and you're straddling the number perfectly...

So a great projection. Good foresight, that's all.

---

As for this weekend, I think UNH and Maine are the same team, in the same situation and competing directly for play-off positioning. I'd guess this weekend features a couple of close games and a split - with the potential for one team (more likely UNH) to sneak out three points. A sweep either way would surprise me.

I think the game up at Alfond mirrors the type of games we might see down in Durham. Lots of back and forth and momentum swings between two even and imperfect teams...

Ok, got it on the prescient; thanks.

But, arrgghh, please no more ties! :-)

[e.cat]

Ok, but who else took the over on 13.5 wins at the beginning of the season? I know that I did, and I think that maybe HR? Need to check the old thread. :-)

I ageee with Chuck, DC; I think that your prediction of 9 points in these 6 games was spot on. I would prefer a sweep this weekend and a split at UVM, rather than two ties at the Gutt, as that would get be closer to 14 wins. Moreover, we have had enough ties this season, probably eight ties is enough for two seasons.

I had the over also.

[e.cat]

UNH is beating the teams they should be beating. That's a step forward in and of itself...

However, UNH is still just 0-6-5 against the top-34 teams in the PWR. Currently, Maine is 31st, Lowell is 17th and Northeastern is 13th. If the Wildcats finished the season 4-2-1 in their last seven games against the top-half of college hockey after winning zero to date, that would be quite a feat...

UNH is also just 2-5-6 on the road. That makes the UVM series much more difficult. The Catamounts looked awful when I saw them in Colorado Springs - but Stefanos Lekkas just might be the best goalie in college hockey this season. Anything less than a split in Burlington would be disappointing, but expecting more might be optimistic...

If I was predicting, I'd guess UNH splits at Vermont, drops both road games against NU/UML and goes 2-3/3-2 in its five remaining home games...

Making the 13.5 over/under almost prescient...

---

Is UNH playing well or are they feasting on the bottom dwellers of college hockey at home? Both?

In their last 15 games they are 8-2-5! Results in 13-of-15 games regardless of competition is nothing to sneeze at. Especially given how they fared against this level of competition the last few years.

But, nine of those games were at The Whitt (6-1-2), while six were away (2-1-3) and only three (0-2-1) were against the top-30 in college hockey...

Agree about UVM. Having lived in Burlington for 15 years and getting to know many former UVM players from their glory days in DII including an NC, they hate to lose to UNH. But lose they have and often to UNH adding extra incentive. They will bring it and the home atmosphere will help them. A sweep up there is not in the cards.

UNH's only chance for a sweep in the upcoming games is with Maine although I agree it's not a given.

Hoping for some upside surprises with likes of Northeastern and UML!

[wildcatdc]

O ye of little faith. 3 points from 2 games with UConn was probably to be expected, but all it's gonna take to get to the 9 points out of 6 games is either two more 3 point weekends like that, OR a sweep and a split weekend. Considering that UNH is the in-form team of the group - yes, UVM swept last weekend, but that was against the 'Mack, and they're not too far ahead of last place, while UMaine had a good showing against UMass at home, but are the road team next weekend - I think it's equally likely they'll earn 7 points as it is that they'll earn 5 points. So six points sounds pretty good to me.

Realistically, at this point, I think UNH is merely playing for HE quarterfinal playoff positioning, but they seem to be reveling in this newfound winning stuff, so these relatively meaningless games take on more meaning for them than it does for the likes of Lowell and Northeastern. Both of those teams give UNH a chance to get a head start on playoffs-style hockey, but they might not be as focused as UNH. Northeastern, for one, will be a couple of weeks post-Beanpot when they come up here for a pair. Lowell, right now, is the only team close to UNH in terms of current form, but they're hitting a tough stretch of games shortly, and who knows if these games will have meaning by the time they arrive in about a month. If they don't - I say, advantage UNH.

If I'm Snively65 right now, I'm really liking my chances at the 14 win projection. A lot.

And who among us thought this would even be close to the case two months ago ...

Agreed with all of the above - these next two weekends simply look a little more competitive than we might have thought two weekends ago. And you’re right, if we keep our trajectory, the NU and UML series could be pretty interesting. It’s not exactly the BC/BU/ME murderer’s row of the early 2000’s!

[Snively65]

I had the over also.

So, at least three of us wearing rose-colored glasses at the beginning of the season. :-)

[e.cat]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

So, at least three of us wearing rose-colored glasses at the beginning of the season. :-)

Yup-

BTW , my original math error resulting in a 4-4-1 may very well prove to be correct but the rose colored glasses got me to the 5-3-1!

Go figure

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

Agree about UVM. Having lived in Burlington for 15 years and getting to know many former UVM players from their glory days in DII including an NC, they hate to lose to UNH. But lose they have and often to UNH adding extra incentive. They will bring it and the home atmosphere will help them. A sweep up there is not in the cards.

UNH's only chance for a sweep in the upcoming games is with Maine although I agree it's not a given.

Hoping for some upside surprises with likes of Northeastern and UML!

UVM? We have almost the same track record as with UConn, in the past 3, 4 seasons...I've been to Burlington the past 4 and have only seen them win up there once? The rest have been losses, but I'd have to check; same in Durham...beating them earlier in the season in that OT was awesome and it won't be the same there. They have a great atmosphere with their student sections and the 'Gut is always filled to capacity. I think we all know where we are at but like I say...anything can happen in college hockey and I'd love to see some 'surprises'. At best, we are hopeful and that's a good start...Go 'Cats!!

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2018-2019: Souza the Opportunity or Louza the Opportunity

So, at least three of us wearing rose-colored glasses at the beginning of the season. :-)

You say that like it's a bad thing...