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View Full Version : Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement



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TonyTheTiger20
11-04-2017, 09:14 AM
We've reached the date where all of the teams have played two different opponents, and so the Pairwise can now be fully calculated!

My Pairwise calculator is live, and it is the only Pairwise on the internet that includes all of the eligible teams:

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2017/11/4/16605602/2017-2018-ncaa-womens-hockey-pairwise-rankings-calculator

I included a "switch" at the top of the calculator which will include or exclude the D1/D2 independents from the rankings. If you switch it "off," it will still include games against these teams, but it will basically do what the Pairwise did last year which is pretend they aren't eligible (i.e. any wins against top independents will not give a quality win bonus, and all 6 teams will be in 35th through 40th in the rankings with a 0.000 RPI).

Note though that the proper way to mirror the NCAA selection committee is to include all eligible teams, and then base the quality win bonus off that. So right now USCHO is giving a 1st place QWB for beating Wisconsin, but the committee confirmed (https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2017/10/9/16448484/ncaa-womens-hockey-committee-chair-clarifies-d1-d2-tournament-selection-issues) that they are going to rank all eligible teams and then assign QWB off that. So since St. Anselm is currently in first, beating Wisconsin would give a 2nd place QWB, not 1st.


And lastly, the question of how RPI awards its “Quality Wins Bonus” was worth addressing as well. If a team finished #1 in the RPI but was not selected for the tournament based on its “full body of work,” would a team that beat them still receive the 0.060 QWB associated with it, or would that team be removed from the RPI entirely?

Fraser confirmed the answer to this for us as well:


The data used to evaluate teams will not be altered based on which teams are selected to the field.

Here are my KRACH (https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2017/10/13/16469054/2017-2018-ncaa-womens-hockey-krach-calculator) and GRaNT (https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-hockey/2017/10/13/16468784/2017-2018-ncaa-mens-and-womens-college-hockey-grant-computer-rankings) calculators.

It doesn't look like Rutter is updated anymore :(

joecct
11-04-2017, 02:46 PM
Grant - I don't think you can exclude the Alliance from the PWR calculations as they are *technically* eligible for selection even if the committee excludes them.

TonyTheTiger20
11-04-2017, 06:34 PM
Grant - I don't think you can exclude the Alliance from the PWR calculations as they are *technically* eligible for selection even if the committee excludes them.

Oh I agree, that's why I'm not -- I'm just giving the reader the option of removing them and looking at it as if they don't exist if they feel like it. It defaults to including them.

TonyTheTiger20
11-22-2017, 01:49 PM
I would be interested in obtaining your votes for this poll:

https://twitter.com/Salzano14/status/933386555544174593

vicb
11-22-2017, 04:28 PM
I do not have a Twitter Acct.

Krack

TonyTheTiger20
11-22-2017, 06:01 PM
I do not have a Twitter Acct.

Krack

Correct!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-hockey/2017/11/22/16692238/we-figured-out-the-correct-way-to-pronounce-krach

joecct
11-22-2017, 06:21 PM
Correct!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-hockey/2017/11/22/16692238/we-figured-out-the-correct-way-to-pronounce-krach

But then we lose KRACH rot. But its proponents are high on KRACH.

Genbeau
11-22-2017, 06:43 PM
Correct!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-hockey/2017/11/22/16692238/we-figured-out-the-correct-way-to-pronounce-krach

What about the GRaNT. Someone insisted it's a soft "G." I don't agree with them.

Eeyore
11-22-2017, 08:18 PM
What about the GRaNT. Someone insisted it's a soft "G." I don't agree with them.

It's pronounced "grunt."

TonyTheTiger20
11-22-2017, 08:39 PM
What about the GRaNT. Someone insisted it's a soft "G." I don't agree with them.

My 17 year old cousin in Arizona likes to tell me I'm a "Soft G" so this is pretty funny lol

TonyTheTiger20
01-25-2018, 07:12 AM
https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2018/1/25/16929480/saint-anselm-could-affect-the-ncaa-womens-hockey-tournament-field-whether-theyre-selected-or-not

(Candace, please don't shoot me)

TonyTheTiger20
01-25-2018, 04:40 PM
Habemus BRACKETOLOGUM!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2018/1/25/16930754/ncaa-womens-hockey-bracketology-womens-frozen-four-wisconsin-boston-college-colgate-clarkson

We're using our Pairwise, which is correct, instead of USCHO's, which is incorrect.

robertearle
01-25-2018, 06:35 PM
Habemus BRACKETOLOGUM!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2018/1/25/16930754/ncaa-womens-hockey-bracketology-womens-frozen-four-wisconsin-boston-college-colgate-clarkson

We're using our Pairwise, which is correct, instead of USCHO's, which is incorrect.

You might throw out an extra prompting post over at the Ohio State thread. For obvious reasons, they are paying more attention to this stuff this year, as their Pairwise and RPI questions showed.

vicb
01-25-2018, 06:41 PM
Habemus BRACKETOLOGUM!

https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2018/1/25/16930754/ncaa-womens-hockey-bracketology-womens-frozen-four-wisconsin-boston-college-colgate-clarkson

We're using our Pairwise, which is correct, instead of USCHO's, which is incorrect.

ECAC is gonna be a real crap shoot and it would not surprise me when all the ice has settled you end up with the following

1) Wisconsin
2) Clarkson/Colgate
3) BC
4) Ohio State
5) Colgate/Clarkson
6) Minnesota
7) Maine/NE/Providence/Cornell
8) Robert Morris

Does the committee now do the following

Minny to Wisconsin
Colgate to Clarkson or vice versa
Maine/NE/Prov to BC
Robert Morris to Ohio State

Minny to Wisconsin
Cornell to Colgate/Clarkson
Colgate/Clarkson to BC
Robert Morris to Ohio State

Gonna be some fun times in March.

TonyTheTiger20
01-25-2018, 06:56 PM
You might throw out an extra prompting post over at the Ohio State thread. For obvious reasons, they are paying more attention to this stuff this year, as their Pairwise and RPI questions showed.

This is true! I will do that.

ARM
01-25-2018, 07:10 PM
ECAC is gonna be a real crap shoot and it would not surprise me when all the ice has settled you end up with the following ...
2) Clarkson/Colgate
...
5) Colgate/ClarksonHistorically, it hasn't tended to go that way, in part because the top teams in the ECAC play each other 2 or 3 times rather than 3 or 4 as in HEA or 4 or 5 as in the WCHA. The exception might be the years the North Country teams decide to do an extra nonconference home and home. So in a year where there is a clear top two in the ECAC and a drop to everyone else, those top two don't beat each other up as far as RPI goes. I'm pretty confident that both Clarkson and Colgate are destined for the top four, unless something unexpected happens (like OSU beating Wisconsin three times in a row). Those two ECAC teams are comfortably ahead of the rest of the pack.

TonyTheTiger20
01-25-2018, 07:19 PM
ECAC is gonna be a real crap shoot and it would not surprise me when all the ice has settled you end up with the following

1) Wisconsin
2) Clarkson/Colgate
3) BC
4) Ohio State
5) Colgate/Clarkson
6) Minnesota
7) Maine/NE/Providence/Cornell
8) Robert Morris

The ECAC is a crapshoot but Clarkson and Cornell have wildly easy schedules the rest of the way (this weekend excluded), Colgate in particular. It would take a pretty dramatic fall for any of the top 4 to drop out of home ice.

My best guess right now is we're going to see something along the lines of:

(1) Wisconsin
(2-4) Boston College, Clarkson, Colgate
(5) Ohio State
(6-7) Two of: Minnesota, Cornell, St. Lawrence, Maine, Northeastern, MAYYYYBE Providence if they can take some points against BC this weekend.
(8) CHA

Providence and Maine each have a shot to climb up into that 6-7 slot but they have a rough last two weekends, with 4 games against BC plus each other. Northeastern is more likely, but they have a lot of teams to leapfrog. Gun to my head, I don't think anyone other than BC gets in as an at-large from WHEA.

There is such a big gap between the top 4 and the rest -- even if Ohio State swept Wisconsin next weekend and BC got swept by PC this weekend, Ohio State would still be handily behind BC. So barring something catastrophic, you're not going to see any of the top 4 fall out. Also Wisconsin has #1 pretty much locked up.

Ohio State has a pretty good lead on Cornell, too, though they're closer to Cornell than they are to BC. Ohio State's road to the end of the regular season is a bit tougher than Cornell's, though.

This weekend is really going to set things up for the rest of the year. BC has Providence, Clarkson/Colgate/Cornell/SLU all play two games against each other, Ohio State has Duluth (who is, admittedly, bad, but not Mankato bad). Then the ECAC teams all have it WICKED easy the rest of the way, which Minnesota gets to get blasted by the Badgers and the WHEA teams beat up on each other.

My guess is the top 7 today is the top 7 you'll see at the end of the year, but everything is total chaos so who the heck knows. We'll learn a lot this weekend.

thirdtime's . . .
01-25-2018, 07:53 PM
Habemus BRACKETOLOGUM!



http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/styles/featured_big/public/media/ap/6f647b1c11f44d3f89490f502801751c.jpg?itok=YjCeyWoT

FredsDeadFriend
01-25-2018, 08:10 PM
What about the GRaNT. Someone insisted it's a soft "G." I don't agree with them.

So you don't want people pronouncing your moniker as "enbeau"? :)

TonyTheTiger20
01-25-2018, 08:14 PM
So you don't want people pronouncing your moniker as "enbeau"? :)

I believe it's "zhZHzhZHzhZHenbeauoluulxxghhh," en francais