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Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

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  • Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

    A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

    Going through old polls and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

    Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

    It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship

    Season Team Result Record
    1972-73 Wisconsin Won Championship 29-9-2 (.750)
    1976-77 Wisconsin Won Championship 37-7-1 (.833)
    1978-79 Minnesota Won Championship 32-11-1 (.739)
    1993-94 Lake Superior State Won Championship 31-10-4 (.733)
    2002-03 Minnesota Won Championship 28-8-9 (.722)
    It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament

    Season Team Result Record
    1973-74 Wisconsin Did not qualify 18-13-5 (.569)
    1977-78 Michigan Did not qualify 15-20-1 (.431)
    1983-84 Minnesota Did not qualify 27-11-2 (.700)
    1984-85 Boston University Did not qualify 24-14-4 (.619)
    1987-88 Denver Did not qualify 20-17-2 (.538)
    1989-90 Harvard Did not qualify 13-14-1 (.482)
    2005-06 Denver Did not qualify 21-15-3 (.577)
    2008-09 Boston College Did not qualify 18-14-5 (.554)
    2011-12 Notre Dame Did not qualify 19-18-3 (.512)
    Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
    (WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)
    1972-73 Wisconsin Won Championship
    1973-74 Wisconsin    
    1974-75 Michigan Tech Lost Championship
    1975-76 Minnesota Lost Championship
    1976-77 Wisconsin Won Championship
    1977-78 Michigan    
    1978-79 Minnesota Won Championship
    1979-80 Minnesota Lost First Round
    1980-81 Minnesota Lost Championship
    1981-82 Wisconsin Lost Championship
    1982-83 Minnesota Lost Frozen Four
    1983-84 Minnesota    
    1984-85 Boston University    
    1985-86 Harvard Lost Championship
    1986-87 Minnesota Lost Forzen Four
    1987-88 Denver    
    1988-89 Minnesota Lost Championship
    1989-90 Harvard    
    1990-91 Boston University Lost Championship
    1991-92 Maine Lost Quarterfinals
    1992-93 Michigan Lost Frozen Four
    1993-94 Lake Superior State Won Championship
    1994-95 Colorado College Lost Quarterfinals
    1995-96 Boston University Lost Frozen Four
    1996-97 Michigan Lost Frozen Four
    1997-98 North Dakota Lost Quarterfinals
    1998-99 Boston College Lost Frozen Four
    1999-2000 Boston College Lost Championship
    2000-01 North Dakota Lost Championship
    2001-02 Michigan State Lost First Round
    2002-03 Minnesota Won Championship
    2003-04 Minnesota Lost Regional Final
    2004-05 Michigan Lost Regional Final
    2005-06 Denver    
    2006-07 Boston College Lost Championship
    2007-08 North Dakota Lost Frozen Four
    2008-09 Boston College    
    2009-10 Denver Lost First Round
    2010-11 Boston College Lost First Round
    2011-12 Notre Dame    
    2012-13 Boston College Lost First Round
    2013-14 UMass-Lowell Lost Regional Final
    2014-15 Minnesota Lost First Round
    2015-16 Boston College Lost Frozen Four
    2016-17 North Dakota Lost First Round
    2017-18 Denver   ?

  • #2
    Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

    Considering the polls at the start of the season regularly rank teams in the top 10 for multiple weeks that have not even played a game, I'm not too surprised. Polls generally reflect historical success. They very rarely accurately reflect who is currently a top team.

    The preseason #1 is almost always the previous year's champion and little to do with the current year's potential. Just as the final poll the #1 is almost always the tourney champ regardless of how low they were ranked the previous weeks. Were they the best team when the season ended? Maybe not. They just won the last game of the season. So counting the number of back to back champions would likely result in a similar number.

    Ryan
    Preserving Michigan Tech's Hockey History
    https://www.johnsonsjerseys.net
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    ...I really enjoyed listening to Ryan Johnson. He sounded intelligent.

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    • #3
      Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

      Originally posted by John Biasi View Post
      A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

      Going through old polls and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

      Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

      It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship

      Season Team Result Record
      1972-73 Wisconsin Won Championship 29-9-2 (.750)
      1976-77 Wisconsin Won Championship 37-7-1 (.833)
      1978-79 Minnesota Won Championship 32-11-1 (.739)
      1993-94 Lake Superior State Won Championship 31-10-4 (.733)
      2002-03 Minnesota Won Championship 28-8-9 (.722)
      It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament

      Season Team Result Record
      1973-74 Wisconsin Did not qualify 18-13-5 (.569)
      1977-78 Michigan Did not qualify 15-20-1 (.431)
      1983-84 Minnesota Did not qualify 27-11-2 (.700)
      1984-85 Boston University Did not qualify 24-14-4 (.619)
      1987-88 Denver Did not qualify 20-17-2 (.538)
      1989-90 Harvard Did not qualify 13-14-1 (.482)
      2005-06 Denver Did not qualify 21-15-3 (.577)
      2008-09 Boston College Did not qualify 18-14-5 (.554)
      2011-12 Notre Dame Did not qualify 19-18-3 (.512)
      Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
      (WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)
      1972-73 Wisconsin Won Championship
      1973-74 Wisconsin * *
      1974-75 Michigan Tech Lost Championship
      1975-76 Minnesota Lost Championship
      1976-77 Wisconsin Won Championship
      1977-78 Michigan * *
      1978-79 Minnesota Won Championship
      1979-80 Minnesota Lost First Round
      1980-81 Minnesota Lost Championship
      1981-82 Wisconsin Lost Championship
      1982-83 Minnesota Lost Frozen Four
      1983-84 Minnesota * *
      1984-85 Boston University * *
      1985-86 Harvard Lost Championship
      1986-87 Minnesota Lost Forzen Four
      1987-88 Denver * *
      1988-89 Minnesota Lost Championship
      1989-90 Harvard * *
      1990-91 Boston University Lost Championship
      1991-92 Maine Lost Quarterfinals
      1992-93 Michigan Lost Frozen Four
      1993-94 Lake Superior State Won Championship
      1994-95 Colorado College Lost Quarterfinals
      1995-96 Boston University Lost Frozen Four
      1996-97 Michigan Lost Frozen Four
      1997-98 North Dakota Lost Quarterfinals
      1998-99 Boston College Lost Frozen Four
      1999-2000 Boston College Lost Championship
      2000-01 North Dakota Lost Championship
      2001-02 Michigan State Lost First Round
      2002-03 Minnesota Won Championship
      2003-04 Minnesota Lost Regional Final
      2004-05 Michigan Lost Regional Final
      2005-06 Denver * *
      2006-07 Boston College Lost Championship
      2007-08 North Dakota Lost Frozen Four
      2008-09 Boston College * *
      2009-10 Denver Lost First Round
      2010-11 Boston College Lost First Round
      2011-12 Notre Dame * *
      2012-13 Boston College Lost First Round
      2013-14 UMass-Lowell Lost Regional Final
      2014-15 Minnesota Lost First Round
      2015-16 Boston College Lost Frozen Four
      2016-17 North Dakota Lost First Round
      2017-18 Denver * ?
      Interesting summary. So many near misses at the FF4 level.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

        Originally posted by JohnsonsJerseys View Post
        The preseason #1 is almost always the previous year's champion and little to do with the current year's potential.
        By my count, 10 of the last 20 weren't the champs the prior year.
        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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        • #5
          Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

          How about a #1 at the end of February vs. tournament fate?

          And I detect a distinct Western Bias in the pre season polls.
          CCT '77 & '78
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