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John Biasi
10-13-2017, 02:39 PM
A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

Going through old polls (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L3VneyIBT4ghFTjLWBmgNaafe6xybXfHjD64YxIbzQI/edit?usp=sharing) and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship



Season
Team
Result
Record


1972-73
Wisconsin
Won Championship
29-9-2 (.750)


1976-77
Wisconsin
Won Championship
37-7-1 (.833)


1978-79
Minnesota
Won Championship
32-11-1 (.739)


1993-94
Lake Superior State
Won Championship
31-10-4 (.733)


2002-03
Minnesota
Won Championship
28-8-9 (.722)



It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament



Season
Team
Result
Record


1973-74
Wisconsin
Did not qualify
18-13-5 (.569)


1977-78
Michigan
Did not qualify
15-20-1 (.431)


1983-84
Minnesota
Did not qualify
27-11-2 (.700)


1984-85
Boston University
Did not qualify
24-14-4 (.619)


1987-88
Denver
Did not qualify
20-17-2 (.538)


1989-90
Harvard
Did not qualify
13-14-1 (.482)


2005-06
Denver
Did not qualify
21-15-3 (.577)


2008-09
Boston College
Did not qualify
18-14-5 (.554)


2011-12
Notre Dame
Did not qualify
19-18-3 (.512)



Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
(WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)


1972-73
Wisconsin
Won
Championship


1973-74
Wisconsin
 
 


1974-75
Michigan Tech
Lost
Championship


1975-76
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1976-77
Wisconsin
Won
Championship


1977-78
Michigan
 
 


1978-79
Minnesota
Won
Championship


1979-80
Minnesota
Lost
First Round


1980-81
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1981-82
Wisconsin
Lost
Championship


1982-83
Minnesota
Lost
Frozen Four


1983-84
Minnesota
 
 


1984-85
Boston University
 
 


1985-86
Harvard
Lost
Championship


1986-87
Minnesota
Lost
Forzen Four


1987-88
Denver
 
 


1988-89
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1989-90
Harvard
 
 


1990-91
Boston University
Lost
Championship


1991-92
Maine
Lost
Quarterfinals


1992-93
Michigan
Lost
Frozen Four


1993-94
Lake Superior State
Won
Championship


1994-95
Colorado College
Lost
Quarterfinals


1995-96
Boston University
Lost
Frozen Four


1996-97
Michigan
Lost
Frozen Four


1997-98
North Dakota
Lost
Quarterfinals


1998-99
Boston College
Lost
Frozen Four


1999-2000
Boston College
Lost
Championship


2000-01
North Dakota
Lost
Championship


2001-02
Michigan State
Lost
First Round


2002-03
Minnesota
Won
Championship


2003-04
Minnesota
Lost
Regional Final


2004-05
Michigan
Lost
Regional Final


2005-06
Denver
 
 


2006-07
Boston College
Lost
Championship


2007-08
North Dakota
Lost
Frozen Four


2008-09
Boston College
 
 


2009-10
Denver
Lost
First Round


2010-11
Boston College
Lost
First Round


2011-12
Notre Dame
 
 


2012-13
Boston College
Lost
First Round


2013-14
UMass-Lowell
Lost
Regional Final


2014-15
Minnesota
Lost
First Round


2015-16
Boston College
Lost
Frozen Four


2016-17
North Dakota
Lost
First Round


2017-18
Denver
 
?

JohnsonsJerseys
10-13-2017, 04:03 PM
Considering the polls at the start of the season regularly rank teams in the top 10 for multiple weeks that have not even played a game, I'm not too surprised. Polls generally reflect historical success. They very rarely accurately reflect who is currently a top team.

The preseason #1 is almost always the previous year's champion and little to do with the current year's potential. Just as the final poll the #1 is almost always the tourney champ regardless of how low they were ranked the previous weeks. Were they the best team when the season ended? Maybe not. They just won the last game of the season. So counting the number of back to back champions would likely result in a similar number.

Ryan

fr. joe
10-19-2017, 07:21 AM
A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

Going through old polls (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L3VneyIBT4ghFTjLWBmgNaafe6xybXfHjD64YxIbzQI/edit?usp=sharing) and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship



Season
Team
Result
Record


1972-73
Wisconsin
Won Championship
29-9-2 (.750)


1976-77
Wisconsin
Won Championship
37-7-1 (.833)


1978-79
Minnesota
Won Championship
32-11-1 (.739)


1993-94
Lake Superior State
Won Championship
31-10-4 (.733)


2002-03
Minnesota
Won Championship
28-8-9 (.722)



It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament



Season
Team
Result
Record


1973-74
Wisconsin
Did not qualify
18-13-5 (.569)


1977-78
Michigan
Did not qualify
15-20-1 (.431)


1983-84
Minnesota
Did not qualify
27-11-2 (.700)


1984-85
Boston University
Did not qualify
24-14-4 (.619)


1987-88
Denver
Did not qualify
20-17-2 (.538)


1989-90
Harvard
Did not qualify
13-14-1 (.482)


2005-06
Denver
Did not qualify
21-15-3 (.577)


2008-09
Boston College
Did not qualify
18-14-5 (.554)


2011-12
Notre Dame
Did not qualify
19-18-3 (.512)



Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
(WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)


1972-73
Wisconsin
Won
Championship


1973-74
Wisconsin
*
*


1974-75
Michigan Tech
Lost
Championship


1975-76
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1976-77
Wisconsin
Won
Championship


1977-78
Michigan
*
*


1978-79
Minnesota
Won
Championship


1979-80
Minnesota
Lost
First Round


1980-81
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1981-82
Wisconsin
Lost
Championship


1982-83
Minnesota
Lost
Frozen Four


1983-84
Minnesota
*
*


1984-85
Boston University
*
*


1985-86
Harvard
Lost
Championship


1986-87
Minnesota
Lost
Forzen Four


1987-88
Denver
*
*


1988-89
Minnesota
Lost
Championship


1989-90
Harvard
*
*


1990-91
Boston University
Lost
Championship


1991-92
Maine
Lost
Quarterfinals


1992-93
Michigan
Lost
Frozen Four


1993-94
Lake Superior State
Won
Championship


1994-95
Colorado College
Lost
Quarterfinals


1995-96
Boston University
Lost
Frozen Four


1996-97
Michigan
Lost
Frozen Four


1997-98
North Dakota
Lost
Quarterfinals


1998-99
Boston College
Lost
Frozen Four


1999-2000
Boston College
Lost
Championship


2000-01
North Dakota
Lost
Championship


2001-02
Michigan State
Lost
First Round


2002-03
Minnesota
Won
Championship


2003-04
Minnesota
Lost
Regional Final


2004-05
Michigan
Lost
Regional Final


2005-06
Denver
*
*


2006-07
Boston College
Lost
Championship


2007-08
North Dakota
Lost
Frozen Four


2008-09
Boston College
*
*


2009-10
Denver
Lost
First Round


2010-11
Boston College
Lost
First Round


2011-12
Notre Dame
*
*


2012-13
Boston College
Lost
First Round


2013-14
UMass-Lowell
Lost
Regional Final


2014-15
Minnesota
Lost
First Round


2015-16
Boston College
Lost
Frozen Four


2016-17
North Dakota
Lost
First Round


2017-18
Denver
*
?



Interesting summary. So many near misses at the FF4 level.

SJHovey
10-19-2017, 09:08 AM
The preseason #1 is almost always the previous year's champion and little to do with the current year's potential. By my count, 10 of the last 20 weren't the champs the prior year.

joecct
10-19-2017, 09:37 AM
How about a #1 at the end of February vs. tournament fate?

And I detect a distinct Western Bias in the pre season polls. :)