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View Full Version : BTHC Tourney '17: The Stands May Be Empty, But The Games Still Matter



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ExileOnDaytonStreet
03-12-2017, 06:14 PM
Thursday:
(6) Michigan State vs. (3) Ohio State
(5) Michigan vs. (4) Penn State

Friday:
(2) Wisconsin vs. TBD
(1) Minnesota vs. TBD

Saturday:
TBD vs. TBD

ExileOnDaytonStreet
03-12-2017, 06:24 PM
The big picture:

Minnesota is the only team guaranteed an at-large berth at this point. Pe. State, Ohio State and Wisconsin are bubble teams, but the Badgers are on the outside looking in, and PSU and OSU are at 13th and 14th respectively. With the WCHA and AHA guaranteeing that only the top 14 are in, and who-knows making that number even smaller, it's basically must-win for all of them. Whatever hope there was for up to 4 B1G teams making the NCAAs is pretty well dead.

In other words: PSU or OSU might get lucky with a one-and-done performance, but I wouldn't count on it. I'd expect the tournament champ and the Gophers (and that's it) to make the field at this point.

Predictions? 50% chance that the Gophers take it. They're clearly the strongest team left. 3% chance Michigan rides their high from last weekend to the title. 15% chances for each of Ohio State and Penn State, who are both slightly better than the Badgers at the moment, but will have to play an extra game to get to the promised land. 17% chance for the Badgers, who are playing awful, and maybe won't stand much of a chance to get past Penn State, but still have a fairly high ceiling and one fewer game to play to get there.

LordofBrewtown
03-12-2017, 06:35 PM
17% chance for the Badgers, who are playing awful, and maybe won't stand much of a chance to get past Penn State, but still have a fairly high ceiling and one fewer game to play to get there.

Think you meant Ohio St.

With North Dakota and Notre Dame sweeping their series, and now Cornell beating Clarkson, results have not been going the way of the big ten bubble teams. Should still get a 2nd team, unless Minnesota wins it and Omaha or QU/StLaw crash the party. May have to worry about Air Force losing in their championship now too.

ExileOnDaytonStreet
03-12-2017, 06:43 PM
Think you meant Ohio St.

Right.

I've been so convinced for weeks that the Badgers would fall to PSU in the playoffs that it just stuck in my head when typing that.

klbaum1077
03-12-2017, 07:19 PM
Its going to take 2 wins for Ohio State to get in i think but that is also do able for them. I think that loss to State last weekend woke them up a bit. I dont see them losing on Thursday which sets up that 3rd game in less than a week with Wisconsin.

D2D
03-12-2017, 08:53 PM
Thursday:
(6) Michigan State vs. (3) Ohio State
(5) Michigan vs. (4) Penn State

Friday:
(2) Wisconsin vs. TBD
(1) Minnesota vs. TBD

Saturday:
TBD vs. TBD
Bracket, times and TV info here: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-hockey/auto_pdf/2016-17/misc_non_event/2017HockeyBracket.pdf

alfablue
03-13-2017, 07:56 AM
The big picture:

Minnesota is the only team guaranteed an at-large berth at this point. Pe. State, Ohio State and Wisconsin are bubble teams, but the Badgers are on the outside looking in, and PSU and OSU are at 13th and 14th respectively. With the WCHA and AHA guaranteeing that only the top 14 are in, and who-knows making that number even smaller, it's basically must-win for all of them. Whatever hope there was for up to 4 B1G teams making the NCAAs is pretty well dead.


If Wisconsin or either of the Michigan teams win the whole thing, that decreases the at larges to 13.

And I've not run any predictor numbers to see what happens to OSU or PSU if any of the Michigan teams win Thursday- they are really close at this point, and a loss to either MSU or UM would be a pretty bad one this late.

Given that Wisconsin does have a bye, that situation helps them quite a bit.

Numerically, the worst thing for the B1G is if OSU and PSU both lose Thursday, and then anyone but Minnesota wins- that pushes both teams down and takes an at large spot- giving the conference just 2.

On the other hand, if OSU and PSU win enough to play each other Saturday, can anyone run the numbers to see if they climb enough to get 3 in?

Those seem like the only choices for the conference.

SJHovey
03-13-2017, 08:31 AM
If Wisconsin or either of the Michigan teams win the whole thing, that decreases the at larges to 13.

And I've not run any predictor numbers to see what happens to OSU or PSU if any of the Michigan teams win Thursday- they are really close at this point, and a loss to either MSU or UM would be a pretty bad one this late.

Given that Wisconsin does have a bye, that situation helps them quite a bit.

Numerically, the worst thing for the B1G is if OSU and PSU both lose Thursday, and then anyone but Minnesota wins- that pushes both teams down and takes an at large spot- giving the conference just 2.

On the other hand, if OSU and PSU win enough to play each other Saturday, can anyone run the numbers to see if they climb enough to get 3 in?

Those seem like the only choices for the conference.I think when you play around with the Pairwise Predictor, or check out the results of others who are doing so, you will find that the key to increased B1G school participation in the NCAA's will hinge upon:

1. PSU and OSU winning on Thursday.
2. BC losing.
3. Quinnipiac losing.
4. North Dakota losing twice.
5. Anyone but Minnesota winning the B1G tournament.

gopher wes
03-13-2017, 08:42 AM
Will the number of posts in this thread be greater than the attendance for the weekend?

D2D
03-13-2017, 09:43 AM
Will the number of posts in this thread be greater than the attendance for the weekend?
No question that I will have contributed to that probability.

klbaum1077
03-13-2017, 04:37 PM
Here is what i have come up with for Ohio state

0 wins
Out with canisius wins aha
Out of BC wins 1 game
#15 if afa wins aha
#15 if bu beats bc and afa wins 1 game
#14 if bc and afa lose 1st game
If they lose that 1st game BC has to lose to BU

1 win 1 loss
Out- if Wisconsin wins big ten
Out if Penn state bears Michigan and BC beats bu
Out if BC wins hockey east
Out if Quinnipac wins ECAC and BC beats BU
#15 all higher seeds win
#14 canisius wins aha all other higer seeds win
#13 Penn state loses to Michigan(canisius wins aha)
#14 if Minnesota bears Wisconsin and canisius wins aha

2 wins
Out if Quinnipac wins ECAC and BC wins HE
#9 all higher seeds win but BC beats bu
#10 all higher seeds win but BC beats BU and afa wins aha
#11 all higher seeds win
#12 higher seeds win afa wins aha
#11bc wins he
#12 Quinnipiac wins ecac and nd win he
#13 Cornell and win titles
#12 Cornell and canisius win titles

Win title
#9 all higher seeds win
#8 higher seeds win expect BU beats Nd in he title game
#10 Lowell BC or ND win HE title

In sure there are others but this is what I got

gopher wes
03-14-2017, 08:16 AM
I can only speak for myself but I, as a Minnesota fan, have a very hard time bearing Wisconsin and their fans.;)

gopher wes
03-15-2017, 08:58 AM
Well, I just can't get over all the hype in this thread.....

I for one am excited to watch some hockey on Thursday where I don't have a horse in the race, especially after the Wild probably lose again prior to the nightcap. Probably will not watch much of the early game because Gophers "bounceyball" will be playing their first round game at that time.

EDIT: Plus, I want to watch the Gophers' Friday evening opponent!

Riz
03-15-2017, 02:05 PM
Well, I just can't get over all the hype in this thread.....

I for one am excited to watch some hockey on Thursday where I don't have a horse in the race, especially after the Wild probably lose again prior to the nightcap. Probably will not watch much of the early game because Gophers "bounceyball" will be playing their first round game at that time.

EDIT: Plus, I want to watch the Gophers' Friday evening opponent!
I'm excited for some Thursday hockey on BTN. Those are HUGE games for Ohio State and Penn State. The Big 10 owns that night in college hockey anyway.


I can only speak for myself but I, as a Minnesota fan, have a very hard time bearing Wisconsin and their fans.;)
I've heard some horror stories from some North Dakota fans who went to the Kohl center. Personally, I don't dislike any fan base other than some of the jerks in Colorado Springs for Colorado College. Now that their team sucks, they've chilled a lot though.

MGoBlueHockey
03-15-2017, 02:30 PM
Michigan has won 4 of the last 5 including a sweep of PSU last week.....

Who knows. If anything this just depresses me since the talent is there as shown, the effort just lacked during the season apparently. They look like they have chemistry for the first time.

Will be sad that this is the final Michigan game at the Joe. I've been going there for games for decades. Michigan is more than likely the college team with the most wins there.

I'm concerned what the prices will be for the games at the new Pizzarena. At least this is the last neutral site Tournament, though.

gopher wes
03-15-2017, 03:12 PM
I'm excited for some Thursday hockey on BTN. Those are HUGE games for Ohio State and Penn State. The Big 10 owns that night in college hockey anyway.


I've heard some horror stories from some North Dakota fans who went to the Kohl center. Personally, I don't dislike any fan base other than some of the jerks in Colorado Springs for Colorado College. Now that their team sucks, they've chilled a lot though.
I'll definitely be flipping back and forth between that and March Madness.

LOL! UND fans sharing horror stories about other team's fan.....that's rich. Only been to the Kohl Center once but quite honestly, Wisconsin fans were nothing but nice to us.

Riz
03-15-2017, 03:17 PM
I'll definitely be flipping back and forth between that and March Madness.

LOL! UND fans sharing horror stories about other team's fan.....that's rich. Only been to the Kohl Center once but quite honestly, Wisconsin fans were nothing but nice to us.
I've actually heard that North Dakota fans are very welcoming at the Ralph, and that they appreciate fans travelling to watch their teams because they do the same. I DID NOT hear this from a North Dakota fan and I have never been to Grand Forks. I'll let you know after the NCHC frozen faceoff and west regional (assuming Denver and North Dakota are in that region together) what I think. It's hard to judge them based on games at Magness arena in Denver because despite the fact that they fill half the arena, most of them currently live in Denver and aren't really "die-hards." I went to the Frozen Four last year and the building was all North Dakota fans in the semi-final except two sections of DU fans and had no issues with them. I'm sure they are a lot more hospitable toward Denver fans than Minnesota fans though.

The two guys that I met in 2013 in a Green Bay regional that shared the story were two of the nicest guys around and I'm positive did nothing to antagonize the Wisconsin fans. They actually offered to give my father and I tickets to the Ralph sometime when DU played there. Every team has bad eggs in their fan base though.

gopher wes
03-15-2017, 03:29 PM
I've actually heard that North Dakota fans are very welcoming at the Ralph, and that they appreciate fans travelling to watch their teams because they do the same. I DID NOT hear this from a North Dakota fan and I have never been to Grand Forks. I'll let you know after the NCHC frozen faceoff and west regional (assuming Denver and North Dakota are in that region together) what I think. It's hard to judge them based on games at Magness arena in Denver because despite the fact that they fill half the arena, most of them currently live in Denver and aren't really "die-hards." I went to the Frozen Four last year and the building was all North Dakota fans in the semi-final except two sections of DU fans and had no issues with them. I'm sure they are a lot more hospitable toward Denver fans than Minnesota fans though.

The two guys that I met in 2013 in a Green Bay regional that shared the story were two of the nicest guys around and I'm positive did nothing to antagonize the Wisconsin fans. They actually offered to give my father and I tickets to the Ralph sometime when DU played there. Every team has bad eggs in their fan base though.
At least in my experience, it was the complete opposite. My buddy and I got shoulder bumped by UND fans as we were walking through the concourse, taunted by little kids, and just straight up cursed/sworn at. I don't doubt that they are probably more hostile toward Gopher fan than other fanbases though.

Scarlet
03-15-2017, 03:47 PM
Apropos of nothing, I seriously love this nickname for the arena:


Pizzarena

davyd83
03-15-2017, 04:29 PM
If Sparty & UM get kicked on Thursday, the BIG 6 may have trouble drawing a better crowd at the Joe than the 4400 sellout they'll have at the WCHA Final in Houghton. And I'm talking actual butts in seats. Not tickets distributed.