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Thiessen'sBetter
03-02-2017, 03:18 PM
Article on Adam Gaudette.
http://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/gaudettes-rapid-ncaa-scoring-rise-has-canucks-mapping-pro-plan

Gaud is a fantastic offensive player but the Bergeron/Toews comparison is way off considering he's pretty lackluster in his own end. I have to imagine Vancouver wants to see significant improvement in that part of his game before they'd sign him. Right now, he reminds me a collegiate version of former Cronin recruit, Ryan Johansen.

Dan
03-02-2017, 05:02 PM
I would be very interested to hear your case for Kelleher if you wanted to make one.

I did not want to make a definitive comparison, because I do not intend in any way to diminish ZAR’s season nor do I have any inclination to get into a Hobey argument with any of Northeastern’s GR8 posters.

The case for Kelleher is an easy one to make – it also illustrates how important it is to play for a winner. Kelleher has constantly been shortchanged throughout his career due to UNH’s lack of success during his tenure and a lack of quality teammates. He is quite simply the most valuable and offensively gifted player in the country this season, but he will never get credit for his value because UNH is well-below .500 and his talent-wanting teammates hinder his productivity.

Kelleher has played with exactly one above average forward over the course of his UNH career (Poturalski). If he has Poturalski this season, add 10-15 points to his point total. The fact that he has taken another large step forward without #18 on his line is a testament to his dominant offensive skill set. Additionally, he has NEVER played with a defensive group at UNH who was anything other than dismal at breaking pucks out of its own end or contributing offensively outside of the PP. He is constantly responsible for lugging the puck up ice and creating offense on his own. Without Kelleher, UNH probably wins 5 games or less this season…

First, lets take a look at how critical Kelleher is to the offense at UNH…

UNH Top Scorers
Kelleher: 59
McNicholas: 38 (-21)
Cleland: 34 (-25)
Salvaggio: 33 (-26)

Union Top Scorers
Vecchione: 58
Foo: 56 (-2)
Vidmar: 38 (-20)
Supinski:33 (-25)

NU Top Scorers
Aston-Reese: 59
Sikura: 53 (-6)
Gaudette: 51 (-8)
Cockerill: 30 (-29)
Also: J. Stevens 23 (1.09 PPG) / N. Stevens 17 (1.31 PPG)

Kelleher is clearly playing with less productive line-mates on a less productive team. He IS the UNH offense. The gap between Kelleher and the next most productive scorers on UNH is astounding and significantly more substantial than either Vecchione or Aston Reese. Vecchione played most of the season with both Foo and Vidmar. Recently they have been separated, but he has racked up the majority of his points while playing with two top-end talents on a high-scoring and well balanced team.

Aston-Reese has in fact skated on a line with Sikura many times, though not recently. He has also played with at least one Stevens brother, and when healthy both, over the course of the season. Sikura is clearly a highly-skilled forward and the Stevens brothers, though in and out of the line-up are both averaging over one point-per game in 2016-17. They also both topped 35 points last season and are two of the top offensive forwards in the league. Northeastern is a deep forward group.

Simply put, opponents cannot zero in on Vecchione or ZAR like they can on Kelleher, because they have other dangerous options. ZAR especially. Kelleher is ALWAYS public enemy #1 and only. New Hampshire DOES NOT win unless Kelleher goes off. UNH is 2-12-3 when Kelleher scores 1 or less points (a .206 WPCT vs. an overall .426). When Kelleher scores two or more points, the team is 10-5-2 (.647). Opponents know that containing Kelleher is the only thing they have to do and they still cannot stop him. Shadows, double teams, extra physical play, etc. He’s seen it all this season and never slowed down.

Northeastern has an overall WPCT of .544 and they are 3-2-2 (.500) when ZAR is scoreless and 5-8-3 (.406) when he scores one or less goals. Union is cruising at a .721 WPCT, this season, and barely misses a beat when Vecchione is held to one point or less (8-5-1, .571). These numbers illustrate the secondary scoring talent and depth on NU and UC in comparison to UNH. Opposing teams have to focus on multiple scoring lines and options, opening up more space for everyone.

Kelleher has also CARRIED his line-mates this season, turning them into offensively productive players. Take a look at the production of his line-mates, this season versus last season and over the course of the careers.

McNicholas – 38 points this season / 10 in 2015-16 / 13 total prior to 2016-17
Salvaggio – 33 points this season / 6 in 2015-16 / 8 total prior to 2016-17

Those are 280% and 450% scoring increases, respectively, for Kelleher’s linemates over last season’s production. The two have seen 192% and 312% respective increases to their career point totals.

Vecchione’s two most common line-mates have seen their point totals improve by 280% (Vidmar, 10 pts to 38) and 84% (Foo, 25 pts to 56) from last season.

Aston-Reese’s three most common linemates have improved by 89% (Sikura, 28 to 53), 26% (J. Stevens, 35 to an extrapolated 44) and -13% (N. Stevens, 42 to an extrapolated 37).

Another way to look at UNH’s dependency on Kelleher is how involved in the team’s overall production he has been. Whether 5-on-5 or on the PP, if UNH scored, Tyler Kelleher most likely was the reason…

SCORING…
Kelleher: 59 points on UNH’s 109 goals – 54% involvement
Aston-Reese: 59 points on NU’s 127 goals – 46% involvement
Vecchione: 58 points on UC’s 131 goals – 44% involvement

POWER PLAY GOALS…
Kelleher: 12 of UNH’s 38 PP goals (32%) – 12/167 (personal PP goal rate 7%)
Aston-Reese: 13 of NU’s 50 PP goals (26%) – 13/181 (personal PP goal rate 7%)
Vecchione: 8 of Union’s 38 PP goals (21%) – 8/182 (personal PP goal rate 4%)

POWER PLAY ASSISTS…
Kelleher: 18 A – Figured in 30 of 38 PPG (79%) – 30/167 (Per. PP rate 18%)
Aston-Reese: 13 A – Figured in 26 of 50 PPG (52%) – 26/181 (Per. PP rate 14%)
Vecchione: 15 A – Figured in 23 of 38 PPG (60%) – 23/182 (Per. PP rate 13%)

No one in the country figured in a higher percentage of his team’s goals than Kelleher. UNH finished the regular season as the #7 power-play in the country. Without Kelleher they likely wouldn’t have been in the top-50. When I argue that he did it as a ‘solo-act’ and with very little help from his teammates, it is NOT hyperbole…

I also like to separate primary assists from secondary helpers. I’ve seen lots of Hobey Candidates in the past who have really racked up secondary assists as a result of who they’ve played with.

Kelleher: 37 assists, 26 primary (71%)
Aston-Reese: 30 assists, 20 primary (67%)
Vecchione: 32 assists, 13 primary (41%)

Like the other two, Kelleher plays in ALL situations. His ability to contribute on defense and the penalty kill is always overlooked as a result of his size and UNH’s dismal defensive performance as a team. However, Kelleher, while small is not a defensive slouch and has proven to be solid in his own end and a contributor off the puck. His puck possession is also an overlooked aspect of his defense. When he has the puck, the opponent cannot score and if you watch him regularly you will understand just how difficult it is to take the puck from him. He can and does dominate puck possession in spite of his 5-6, 150 lb size…

Relative to his teammates, Kelleher’s plus/minus is extremely good. He is a plus six on a team that is a net -22. Tied for second on a team full of minus. His linemates do not even match him at a combined plus-5. He is not Jonathan Toews on defense, but voters who look at his stature and UNH’s defensive issues are doing him a HUGE disservice.

+/-
Kelleher: +6, Team, -22 (Net 28)
Aston-Reese: +12, Team -3 (Net 15)
Vecchione: +22, Team +24 (Net -2)

That’s all I have time to research for now – but I do think Kelleher is the best offensive and most valuable player in the country. He is truly carrying UNH to whatever modest success it has achieved. He garners ALL of the opponents attention and is still playing some of his best and most productive hockey of the season down the stretch. Id give him the edge over Aston-Reese, because he has been slightly more productive (but he is more of a goal scorer, while Kelleher is a playmaker with no finishers) in HE play and a larger part of UNH’s offensive output. Sikura, Gaudette, N. Stevens, and J. Stevens (perhaps Fillipe) would all be the second best forward on UNH this season. Playing with those players and having them shoulder some of the oppositions attention is a big help to Aston-Reese, who is undoubtedly having a Hobey worthy season.

Again, I’d image NU fans would side with ZAR and UNH fans would believe in Kelleher. If anything, the numbers NU Husky posted and my own research would indicate that Vecchione should be the third option for the award, but I still think he’ll win.

I agree with NU Husky that team success should not be a big factor – but it always has been and I expect it will be again this year. There is also the aspect of career achievement and Vecchione not only leads the group in career points, but has also been at the forefront of voter’s minds since leading Union to a National Championship as a freshman. That will matter.

It’s a weird year for the Hobey Baker, as except for Vecchione the scoring leaders who have created separation are playing on average (NU) to poor (UNH) teams. There really aren’t any great defensive or goaltending candidates. Williams plays in Atlantic Hockey. Will Butcher and Tanner Jaillet (Denver) are probably the two best candidates playing these positions, but neither has put up the other worldly numbers you usually need to win as a D or G. They also play on a team that features great defensive players 1-20 every night…

Those are the top five candidates in my mind. Foo will never surpass Vecchione and Sikura/Gaudette are in ZAR’s Hobey Shadow. The others I’ve seen being considered (Sheehy, Gambardella, Bjork, Williams, Pilonk, Keller, Shilkey, Blitzer, etc) just simply do not have cases in comparison to the top-5 (or the unlucky 3 with better teammates).

I’ll be surprised if it’s the top-three scorers in the Hat Trick, but whoever is left out has quite a grievance…

NU_Husky
03-02-2017, 05:41 PM
Dan, that was an extremely well thought out and well-articulated case for Kelleher. Obviously I am still pro-ZAR, but you have opened my eyes to the legitimacy of KElleher's candidacy quite a bit. Thank you. Would love to have this debate over beers rather than over a board. I particularly liked your point re: percentage of team's offense. Definitely helps underscore some stark differences between all three.

I am glad we can agree on the ridiculousness on team success being parlayed into a Hobey candidacy. Not only is it absent from the criteria, but the Hobey is an INDIVIDUAL AWARD, not a team award. Even if they play 20-25 min a night, that's still the minority of the game they have no influence on.

After reading through your post, I agree that ZAR/Kelleher should be top 2, with Vecchione in third. But we saw last year that points don't matter as much as we all want the to (I still maintain Vesey winning was more of a "lifetime achievement award" rather than for the singular season), so we'll see what happens.

Thanks for indulging me, I really enjoyed it. All the best in the playoffs.

Tilldog40
03-02-2017, 08:58 PM
I can't make it Friday but will be there on Saturday. Really don't wanna pay 10 bucks to watch it. Not because I'm cheap but love the gonuexrreme. Stinks that the league takes it over for the playoffs. I'm just gonna stream the audio and watch the highlights after the game.

Dan
03-02-2017, 09:43 PM
Dan, that was an extremely well thought out and well-articulated case for Kelleher. Obviously I am still pro-ZAR, but you have opened my eyes to the legitimacy of KElleher's candidacy quite a bit. Thank you. Would love to have this debate over beers rather than over a board. I particularly liked your point re: percentage of team's offense. Definitely helps underscore some stark differences between all three.

I am glad we can agree on the ridiculousness on team success being parlayed into a Hobey candidacy. Not only is it absent from the criteria, but the Hobey is an INDIVIDUAL AWARD, not a team award. Even if they play 20-25 min a night, that's still the minority of the game they have no influence on.

After reading through your post, I agree that ZAR/Kelleher should be top 2, with Vecchione in third. But we saw last year that points don't matter as much as we all want the to (I still maintain Vesey winning was more of a "lifetime achievement award" rather than for the singular season), so we'll see what happens.

Thanks for indulging me, I really enjoyed it. All the best in the playoffs.

Absolutely, I'd say beer next year at Matthews (as I have never been), but with Kelleher's and Cleland's graduation UNH looks to be worse offensively and defensively, while the same in net. Not a good combination...

I enjoyed your article too, I don't find many who enjoy diving into the numbers as much as I do and your research was great. Unfortunately, the most deserving players often lose out on the award to others for any number of reasons. You're right on about Vesey. I'll never understand how Darren Haydar lost in 2002...

I would have loved to have seen NU/UNH because it would have been wide-open and exciting hockey, but good luck with UConn. ZAR has a good chance to add to his scoring numbers over the next two weeks or more. Kelleher will have a much more difficult match-up with a stingy MC team on the road rather than at the Whitt and, likely, at UML if they advance. This might be your boys chance to pull away...

Gr8Sk8M8
03-03-2017, 06:27 AM
Dan, that was an extremely well thought out and well-articulated case for Kelleher. Obviously I am still pro-ZAR, but you have opened my eyes to the legitimacy of (Kelleher's) candidacy quite a bit. Thank you. Would love to have this debate over beers rather than over a board. I particularly liked your point re: percentage of team's offense. Definitely helps underscore some stark differences between all three.

My issue with Kelleher is actually a fairly simple one and is one that Dan failed to mention: He is a half ice player. The award is not about who a player is surrounded with; it's about the player. I won't challenge the legitimacy of Kelleher but I'd put both ZAR and Vecchione well above him and the third spot (not that I've created an order here) should go to Charlie Williams - who is as legit as the other two.

If being surrounded with *good* players reduces the *star* quality of another: Should Eichel and Gaudreau give theirs back? ?

Dan should also look at the actual # games in which ZAR and Sikura were on the same full strength line...out of 34 it was less than 5...he was more likely on a line with Schule or Filipe than Sikura.

SkinsFan09
03-03-2017, 08:40 AM
In the end goal scorers are more valuable than playmakers and ZAR is an elite two-way player. Give him the Hobey.

brassbonanza
03-03-2017, 09:26 AM
Is there a cheap way to get a ticket for the game tonight without getting roasted by fees? What's even the face value theyre charging?

northeastern
03-03-2017, 09:42 AM
Is there a cheap way to get a ticket for the game tonight without getting roasted by fees? What's even the face value theyre charging?

There is a cheap way.. if you have a kid or youth hockey player with their hockey jersey on. Just show up with them (adorning jersey).. at box office window. Each youth player gets 2 tickets for $10 bucks (that's $5/each).. which they can use on themself/ anyone with them. Can only be done in person. Get there bit early.. around 6:30 or so.

Cant beat it. And you're welcome. :)

Edit: kid has to be 13 or younger but the additional tix can be used by anyone i was informed.

brassbonanza
03-03-2017, 09:48 AM
There is a cheap way.. if you have a kid or youth hockey player with their hockey jersey on. Just show up with them (adorning jersey).. at box office window. Each youth player gets 2 tickets for $10 bucks (that's $5/each).. which they can use on themself/ anyone with them. Can only be done in person. Get there bit early.. around 6:30 or so.

Cant beat it. And you're welcome. :)

Edit: kid has to be 13 or younger but the additional tix can be used by anyone i was informed.

Unfortunately I don't have kids, though I was planning to show up in my significantly oversized Whalers jersey so that might make me look like a youth hockey player.

NU_Husky
03-03-2017, 09:53 AM
Preview of the weekend: http://northeasternhockeyblog.com/2016/nu-set-for-hockey-east-octofinals-showdown-with-connecticut-northeastern-huskies-playoffs/

northeastern
03-03-2017, 10:00 AM
Unfortunately I don't have kids, though I was planning to show up in my significantly oversized Whalers jersey so that might make me look like a youth hockey player.

hey.. never hurts to try. :) that be one cool jersey.

NU_Husky
03-03-2017, 10:04 AM
Unfortunately I don't have kids, though I was planning to show up in my significantly oversized Whalers jersey so that might make me look like a youth hockey player.

PM me/pass along your email, send it in a rep comment if messaging is down, I have a ticket for the game you can have, as long as you do a nice big GO NU chant :D

ScottK
03-03-2017, 10:20 AM
Dan should also look at the actual # games in which ZAR and Sikura were on the same full strength line...out of 34 it was less than 5...he was more likely on a line with Schule or Filipe than Sikura.

According to the game notes from NU, that number is actually 9.

NU_Husky
03-03-2017, 10:24 AM
Excellent article on the Stevens' by News@Northeastern

https://news.northeastern.edu/2017/03/brothers-bond-on-off-ice/?utm_source=News@Northeastern&utm_campaign=b22a7825d4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_03_03&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_508ab516a3-b22a7825d4-278499349

And one on ZAR

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/colleges/2017/03/02/northeastern-zach-aston-reese-raises-level-his-game/1WVTDyFIRg12W4GIVRVn5K/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3At witter

CollegeHockeyRinkReport
03-03-2017, 10:43 AM
UConn defenseman David Drake talks about shutting down Northeastern's defense here:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/hockey-east/2017/3/3/14769592/david-drake-uconn-welcome-challenge-of-facing-northeasterns-vaunted-offense-nhl-philadelphia-flyers

northeastern
03-03-2017, 10:54 AM
UConn defenseman David Drake talks about shutting down Northeastern's defense here:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/hockey-east/2017/3/3/14769592/david-drake-uconn-welcome-challenge-of-facing-northeasterns-vaunted-offense-nhl-philadelphia-flyers


These guys swept UNH.. i bet we see a different UConn tonight.

HC better have team prepared. Go NU!

brassbonanza
03-03-2017, 10:56 AM
PM me/pass along your email, send it in a rep comment if messaging is down, I have a ticket for the game you can have, as long as you do a nice big GO NU chant :D

Gracis, check rep.

NU_Husky
03-03-2017, 11:01 AM
Gracis, check rep.

Sent! Enjoy.

northeastern
03-03-2017, 11:24 AM
Gracis, check rep.

cool.

now we'll be looking for a fan in a Whaler jersey crazily cheering on NU ..while dumbfounding the CT folks..
;)