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Todd
02-18-2017, 03:03 PM
(cont'd from last post)
---
With BU and ND each moving up to 25, there are now five teams that can't catch them. Further, for MC to pull even at 25, that would take 4 from UVM's Max, so one of those two also cannot hit 25. Each could still fall to 6th.

This is an interesting pair at this point. They play two to end the RS, so it's important to have the edge going into that series in case there's a split. When BC and UML play next week, the winner of BU/ND will be rooting for UML to help them catch BC, but the loser could be rooting for BC (did I just type that?) to help stave off UML. Lurking in the background, PC is playing UMA twice, so may grab four points on the weekend themselves. So, does BU hope that ND can put a stake in PC tonight, or hope that ND gets dinged so BU could have the edge going into next weekend?

UVM and MC and even UNH are still in the mix for a Bye, but it's looking more and more like last year's scenario where we had five teams fighting for four Byes. It could get ugly if, once again, BU needs a single point from the final game and ND holds on, whether 1-0 (as last year) or any other score. At least this time, these two won't be scoreboard watching BC/UML since that series will be done on Fri.

---
UML can pick up four of five points on BC on their own on next week, but they need help from UVM tonight to have a shot at the 1 seed. They also have to hope that BU/ND isn't a sweep either way, and could use some help from PC and UNH tonight to give a little wiggle room. However we slice it, at five points back with three games to play, UML still has a shot at first. At 23, UML can still fall as low as a tie with NU at 8/9. We saw last week that we can't get UML behind a TB and into 9th, and none of that has changed. UML hasn't played in the interim and is still 1-8.

---
PC is now, at best, co-champs at 28. We've seen that they don't get the top seed in the big 4/5WTs at 28 that we already covered. In fact, they barely hold on to a Bye.

How high can we get them?

On raw points, we can get them into a tie at 28 with BC with everyone else at 27 or lower. But BC swept them, so they top out at 2nd in the H2H.

If we add in UML, that could take care of balancing the BC sweep, but we saw that that goes UML/BC/PC, which is worse. Is there anyone we can add that gives PC an advantage over BC/UML, but doesn't get promoted first? Well, PC would split with ND, but they already split with BC and UML, and we've seen how that goes (ND gets dropped and we're back to BC/UML/PC). If we add BU, that's better for PC against BC, but not against UML. In any event, BU would get promoted first (4-1-1), so PC isn't better off there.

The best we can get PC is the 2 seed and co-champs, as in the first scenario.

As a floor, we're still looking at UMA, ME, and the CT/UNH loser as the teams that can't pass them. Until PC adds points or NU (or CT/UNH) drop more, that won't change.

---
With a Max of 27, UVM now can't catch BC's 28. With BU/ND at 25 with a pair ahead, they can either let one of those two go and hit 3rd, or hope to top out a 3WT at 27. But, UVM split with BU and lost 3-of-4 to ND. Sub-.500 doesn't bring you to the top of that RRR. Adding their split with PC doesn't help. UVM tops out at 3rd.

With 21 in the bank, UVM can't be caught by UMA, ME and the CT/NU loser. That moves their floor up to 9.

---
MC jumps a second spot in as many games by leapfrogging UNH. This also puts them clear of ME and the 11 slot.

At the upper end, MC's Max of 25 and BU/ND ahead means that MC can't catch BC or the BU/ND winner. If we have ND sweep BU, MC takes the H2H TB with their sweep. Everyone else can stay behind 25, so MC can still get 3rd.

---
With 24 Max, UNH can't reach BC/BU/ND, but they could slip in above UML and the rest of the field to take the 4th slot. They could also be caught by both NU and CT, despite those two having another game to play.

---
As a floor, NU is now out of reach of the bottom pair. On the top end, even though I built a grid to show it last week, I spaced on seeing that NU could still get the 4th seed atop a 4WT with UML/PC/MC. Eagle-eyed x1g27s caught that slip. That tie can still happen, so NU can still be 4th and get a Bye.

---
With Max 22, however, CT can't.

Four teams are past them. They could tie PC. UVM and MC could either both join that tie at 22, or one of them passes by. They could take care of NU and UNH along the way to limit the damage, but we could add in UNH at 22 (including a CT sweep), if needed.

First off, how does CT do vs PC H2H? They were swept. What about UVM and MC? Splits (1-1-0 and 0-0-2, respectively). The 4WT at 22, trying for 5th, isn't going to work out for CT, as they start off sub-.500.

What if we add in UNH to a 5WT? That balances out the PC sweep, but only draws CT up to .500. Unless everyone else is at .500, and CT comes out on top at TB2 or TB3, that doesn't get them to 5th either. Well, PC is 2-0-0, 1-1-0, 0-1-1 = 3-2-1 against CT, UVM, MC respectively. That's at least one team above .500, so CT doesn't top out there.

CT's only outcomes above .500 would be the UNH sweep and 1-0-1s against UMA (too low) and UML (too high). If we include PC, there just isn't room to make up the damage done by the sweep.

However, since we can't get CT past PC and into 5th, what if we let PC go and tried our luck for 6th with UVM/MC/UNH? Here's that grid:


RRRsCTMCUVMUNHTotal
CT:0-0-21-1-02-0-03-1-2
MC:0-0-21-0-10-1-11-1-4
UVM:1-1-00-1-11-1-02-3-1
UNH:0-2-01-0-11-1-02-3-1

That's the ticket. By adding UNH to CT's splits with UVM and MC, it puts CT two games over .500. MC comes out at .500 (1-1-4!) and UVM and UNH each end up a game under.

That lets us get CT as high as 6th. That's better than if we let one of UVM/MC go and try to work something out over PC - which won't happen.

CT is also out of reach of ME, after the ME loss dropped their Max below CT's banked points.

---
ME can no longer catch NU or CT, snapping the thin tether between ME and UMA and the rest of the league. These two are fighting it out for the bottom pair.

LTI Alum
02-18-2017, 03:56 PM
My head is spinning:confused:

Todd
02-19-2017, 03:15 AM
After Sat Feb 18:
UVM 2 @ BC 2 OT
ME 4 @ MC 4 OT
PC 3 @ ND 3 OT
CT 1 @ NU 4
UML 5 @ UMA 2
BU 8 @ UNH 4

Thu Feb 23:
UML @ BC

Fri Feb 24:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
PC @ UMA
BC @ UML
CT @ UNH
MC @ UVM

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM


BC   29 - 33[1-3]
BU 27 - 31[1-4]

--- Bye Lock 27 (PC) ---

ND 26 - 30[1-5]
UML25 - 29[1-6]
PC 23 - 27[3-8]
UVM22 - 26[4-8]

--- Home Lock 22 (UNH tb) ---
--------- Bleen Line (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bleen) --------------
--- Bye Eligible - 25 (UML) ---

MC 20 - 24[5-9]
NU 19 - 23[6-9]
UNH18 - 22[7-10]
CT 16 - 20[7-10]

--- R1 Road (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/93/On_the_Road_Again.ogg) - 19 (UNH/CT + NU tb) ---

ME 10 - 14[11]
UMA5 - 9[12]


Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
BC - UML, @UML {2}
BU - NDx2 {2}
ND - @BUx2 {2}
UML - @BC, BC {2}
PC - @UMA, UMA {2}
UVM - MCx2 {2}
MC - @UVMx2 {2}
NU - @MEx2 {2}
UNH - CT, @CT {2}
CT - @UNH, UNH {2}
ME - NUx2 {2}
UMA - PC, @PC {2}

Three OT games, all draws. Three blowouts by 3, 3, and 4 goals. The BC/UVM and PC/ND games were both trading goals all night. ME had a 2-0 lead before MC tied and they swapped from there on. NU had a 3-0 lead again before CT finally scored. Aston-Reese had a hattie and a helper, factoring in all four NU goals. Stevens also had three assists. UML led 5-0 with 3:30 to play before UMA netted two to make it look closer. BU actually trailed 3-1 before hanging a snowman on UNH, 8-4. Goals from 7 different scorers, with Harper having the only pair.

---
At 29, BC can now only be tied by UML and passed or tied by either BU or ND. If UML ties, they have the TB by sweeping next week. That allows BC to drop to 3rd (behind a BU/ND winner).

If BU is involved in a tie w/ BC, they also have the H2H sweep and TB. If BC/BU/UML are at 29, BU and UML split, 1-1-0, leaving both at 3-1-0 with BC at 0-4-0. BC gets dropped to 3 and UML takes 1st on wins. ND would be 4th at 28 and out of PC's reach.

If ND and BC tie at 30, they split H2H (1-1-0) and would match wins. ND at 30 means BU was swept to stay at 27, while BC at 30 means UML at 28. So TB3 would be vs UML, where ND split 1-1-0, but BC would have just gone 0-1-1, so - tied at 30 - ND tops the table.

At BC/ND 29, we would have to include UML (BU would be 28 and 4th). BC would be 1-3-0, ND 2-2-0, and UML 3-1-0. UML gets 1st, but here ND adds the tie, not BC, so BC gets 2nd over ND on wins.

BC's recent skid had dropped them on the underside of the PWR bubble, so they will need a run - and maybe even the auto-bid - to make the NCAAs. In this case, getting a Bye and missing out on another set of games could hurt the Eagles, especially if they get dinged by UML.

---
BU reaching 27 puts them out of reach of UVM or lower, and the best PC can do is tie. BU beat PC 1-0-1, so takes the H2H. BU at 27 means BC and ND are above, but UML could be above, below or even. In the BU/UML/PC 3WT, BU and PC are 2-1-1, and UML is 1-3-0. That drops UML to 5th, and BU takes PC H2H. BU can't be passed by PC, so can't fall to 5th, and BU clinches a Bye.

By gaining a point on BC tonight, BU is only two points behind the Eagles for 1st and only needs a tie, leaving many scenarios for the Terriers to pull the top seed.

Last Friday, before the Beanpot, BU and Harvard were tied in RPI at .5744. BU's RPI has been steadily falling (.5614 earlier, .5634 post-win), as they have dropped through 3, 4, 5, and now to 6 in the PWR, while Harvard's has steadily climbed (now .5838) and replaced BU at 3 in PWR. BU is in a small RPI bubble of their own, now 94 points behind WMU and 67 points ahead of Union, so cushions on both sides. By comparison, that same 94 points separating BU's 6 from WMU's 5 would move #20 Wisconsin (.5379) past #13 Ohio State (.5471), or OSU between #8 UML (.5561) and #7 Union (.5567).

---
ND couldn't quite put a fork in PC's chances to catch them. With a 3-point lead, ND could be swept by BU and still trail a PC sweep of UMA. A ND/PC H2H tie would go to ND, after this weekend's 1-0-1 result. UML could also pass ND, meaning the Irish could be 5th.

ND also went 1-0-1 vs UVM, so a H2H tie at 26 goes to ND. Adding in PC doesn't hurt ND, as the Irish's 2-0-2 beats UVM and PC at 1-2-1 (UVM/PC split 1-1-0). ND split with UML 1-1-0, so 3-1-2 still tops the ND/UVM/PC/UML pile (UVM 1-4-1, PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0). If we removed PC and left ND/UVM/UML, we get 2-1-1, 0-3-1, 3-1-0. UML would move up, but ND wouldn't be behind UVM. BC and BU are beyond 26, so there's no one else to add into a RR. We can't get ND to 6th.

Over the same span discussed above, the Irish have moved up in PWR from 20 to 18 and now 15t (16 after tb). Remarkably, where HE had five teams looking good for the tourney what seems like only a few weeks ago, they are now looking at just three (BU 6/UML 8/PC 9) looking strong to make it, with four more around the bubble (ND 16/UVM 17/BC 18/NU 21), but on the wrong side.

---
We have seen that UML can still take 1st out of a BC/BU/UML tie at 29. They could also be passed by both PC and UVM and drop to 6th.

PC and UML have steadily been 8/9 in PWR for this same period, but tonight, the 8 flips to UML with PC now 9th.

---
PC's 23 in the bank is now past the Max of four teams, meaning they have finally clinched a Home series.

They could be tied by NU. With UVM/MC playing next week, either one could pass PC, or they could 1/3 split and both hit 23. In the 4WT, here's the grid:


RRRsPCMCUVMNUTotal
PC:0-1-11-1-01-1-02-3-1
MC:1-0-11-0-10-2-02-2-2
UVM:1-1-00-1-12-0-03-2-1
NU:1-1-02-0-00-2-03-3-0


UVM gets promoted.


RRRsPCMCNUTotal
PC:0-1-11-1-01-2-1
MC:1-0-10-2-01-2-1
NU:1-1-02-0-03-1-0


NU promoted. Then MC takes PC with the 1-0-1 result H2H. PC comes out of the bottom of that stack, so their floor is 8th.

On the upper end, PC must trail BC and the BU/ND winner, so their ceiling is 3rd.

---
UVM's 26 Max lets them tie ND and pass everyone else but BC/BU, so they could be 4th and get a Bye. H2H with ND, they lose 0-1-1. We could add either UML, PC, or both to try to nudge UVM up to 3rd. UVM was swept by UML, so that doesn't help. UVM split w/ PC, but PC's 1-of-4 weekend isn't going to help UVM get past ND either. That leaves UVM with a ceiling of 4th.

On the lower end, UVM is clear of UMA, ME, and CT, and could be tied by UNH - adding NU if needed. For UVM to stay at 22, MC has to sweep and pass them.

In the UVM/UNH TB, they split 1-1-0, and would match wins for TB2. Is there anyone among the top teams that UNH fared better against than UVM? Both were swept by UML. Both were 0-1-1 vs ND. UVM split with BU, but UNH just went 0-1-1. UVM just tied BC twice, where UNH was swept. Of the four teams that could top the table, UVM wins with BC or BU and ND or UML moves to the next team. PC could be as high as 3rd, but one of the teams ahead of them would be BC, which gives the edge to UVM. All of that means a UVM/UNH match goes to UVM on TB3, whoever is 1st or 2nd.

Adding NU to the tie at 22 does give UNH a 1-0-1 boost, but UVM gets a sweep and stays ahead of UNH.

We can't get UNH past UVM. That makes four below the Cats, so UVM is the sixth team to lock up a Home series.

(cont'd in next post)

Todd
02-19-2017, 03:19 AM
(cont'd from last post)

---
In a burst, three teams (MC/NU/UNH) that could earn a Bye when the night started have seen that chance evaporate.

MC could cleanly hit 5th, alone at 24. In fact, if they hit 24, their sweep of UVM would keep the Cats at 22, and 24 is out of reach of NU and lower. So MC would be either 5 or 6, depending on what PC does. MC took 3-of-4 from PC, so would have the H2H tb.

MC's 20-pt Min could be tied by CT and caught or passed by UNH and NU. However, MC can't both be tied by CT and passed by UNH, since those two meet next week. MC and CT split 0-0-2, but CT would take TB2 on wins, so MC would lose that TB. MC lost to UNH 0-1-1 H2H. MC was swept by NU. With none of the TBs going their way, MC could be behind NU and either CT or UNH, dropping as far as 9th.

---
NU can't catch the top four and could only tie PC. We also know that either the UVM/MC winner passes 23 - making a fifth team that NU can't catch, plus the PC tie - or they both hit it. In that 4WT worked out above, NU comes out 2nd, so gets 6th seed, which is the best they can do.

Below them, UNH and CT still have a pair. The UNH/CT winner can pass NU, or they can 1/3 split for a 3WT at 19 with no helpers to add. NU swept CT, but lost 0-1-1 to UNH for a 2-1-1. CT would be 1-0-1 to UNH, but 1-2-1 with the NU sweep. UNH would be .500 with 3-of-4 from NU, but 1-of-4 from CT (1-1-2). NU tops that RRR. The lowest NU can fall then is ahead of only UMA, ME and the UNH/CT loser with the winner passing them by.

---
UNH could reach up to tie UVM, but if they do, MC would have passed 22. We saw above that UNH can't get past UVM, so we might as well let UVM go and keep MC lower. UNH could then re-pass MC and NU to reclaim 7th. They could also lose 3 or 4 points to CT and end up 10th.

---
CT's Max of 20 only gets them as high as tying MC, but we've seen that they win that tie. Hitting their Max means they swept and passed UNH and they could also be ahead of NU, showing that CT's ceiling is also 7th. They are currently 10th and could stay there as well.

---
ME is now isolated in 11th and UMA is slotted for 12th.

UML Puck Hawk
02-23-2017, 10:02 PM
Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell Beats BC
~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC 5. ND
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC) 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU 5. PC

Lowell Ties BC
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Lowell 4. PC 5. Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BC, 2. BU 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. BC 2. Notre Dame 3. Lowell 4. BU5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC

BC Beats Lowell
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell

The Zlax45
02-23-2017, 10:08 PM
Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell wins tomorrow night

~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC or Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC)
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU

Lowell and BC tie
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC 4. PC or Notre Dame or maybe UVM (I'll leave this to Todd's thread cause I think we all only care what happens to Lowell
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell 3. BC 4. Notre Dame 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell (wins three way tie since BC and ND split and Lowell and ND split) 3. BC (wins second TB on H2H with ND) 4. Notre Dame 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Notre Dame 2. Lowell 3. BU 4. BC 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. Lowell 3. BC 4. BU/Providence

Lowell loses to BC
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. Notre Dame, 2. BC, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell

If BU takes four and PC sweeps their series with UMass, they overtake Notre Dame in that scenario every single time.

UML Puck Hawk
02-23-2017, 10:14 PM
If BU takes four and PC sweeps their series with UMass, they overtake Notre Dame in that scenario every single time.

Yeah, when I first did this I was leaving the PC one open to debate so I wouldn't need to do the more messy tiebreaks (thus noting I would leave that to todd) Halfway through I realized we live in a just universe, so PC is going to sweep, but never went back to fix things

The Zlax45
02-23-2017, 10:16 PM
No big deal....just making sure you saw!

LTI Alum
02-23-2017, 10:21 PM
If BC and Lowell ties, BC beats Lowell by 2 pts

UML Puck Hawk
02-23-2017, 10:23 PM
If BC and Lowell ties, BC beats Lowell by 2 pts

yes, I have since edited

Todd
02-24-2017, 03:49 PM
After Thu Feb 23:
UML 4 @ BC 1

Fri Feb 24:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
PC @ UMA
BC @ UML
CT @ UNH
MC @ UVM

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM


BC   29 - 31[1-3]
BU 27 - 31[1-4]

--- Bye Lock 27 (PC tb) ---

UML27 - 29[1-5]
ND 26 - 30[1-5]
PC 23 - 27[3-8]

--- Bye Eligible - 26 (ND) ---

UVM22 - 26[5-8]

--- Home Lock 22 (UNH tb) ---
--------- Bleen Line (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bleen) --------------

MC 20 - 24[5-9]
NU 19 - 23[6-9]
UNH18 - 22[7-10]
CT 16 - 20[7-10]

--- R1 Road (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/93/On_the_Road_Again.ogg) - 19 (UNH/CT + NU tb) ---

ME 10 - 14[11]
UMA5 - 9[12]


Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
BC - @UML {1}
BU - NDx2 {2}
UML - BC {1}
ND - @BUx2 {2}
PC - @UMA, UMA {2}
UVM - MCx2 {2}
MC - @UVMx2 {2}
NU - @MEx2 {2}
UNH - CT, @CT {2}
CT - @UNH, UNH {2}
ME - NUx2 {2}
UMA - PC, @PC {2}

UML's fairly convincing win over BC at Conte last night keeps alive the 1 seed for both UML and ND. BU now is the team that controls its own fate for the top spot, as BC must wait out the BU/ND results. Should BC and UML tie or UML win, ND could also control its own fate, but we will know the first BU/ND result (and, so, which of those two - if either - is still in control for #1) before the BC/UML game finishes.

---
With the loss, BC's max now drops to 31. That is the same as BU's, but BU has the TB H2H and no other teams could reach 31. With another loss, BC will stay at 29 and be tied by UML (losing the H2H tb) and also caught or passed by the BU/ND winner. BU/ND will either end up 31/26, 30/27, 29/28, 28/29, or 27/30.

If BC and UML are H2H at 29, UML gets the higher seed by virtue of this weekend's sweep. If they are paired at 29, then either BU or ND is past them for the top, so this is a TB to decide 2/3. As we saw last time, if BU joins them in a menage a seed, BC is dropped to 3 on RRR, and UML takes BU on wins. UML/BU/BC. If ND joins UML/BC at 29, we saw that that goes UML (3-1-0 record vs 2-2-0 ND and 1-3-0 BC), then BC on wins, so UML/BC/ND.

If BC/UML tie, BC could only be caught by one of BU or ND. BU could win outright at 31, or win the TB at 30. We saw last time that in a tie at 30, ND and BC split H2H and match wins. UML would pass BU for 3rd, so BC's 1-of-4 vs UML loses to ND's split. ND/BC/UML/BU.

If BC and BU are at 31 (BC wins finale, BU sweeps), then UML is at 27 and ND is at 26. PC could also be at 27 Max, and so is still in the mix for a Bye. The Friars swept UML, so in a H2H at 27 (UML loses finale to BC, PC sweeps UMA), PC gets promoted. This gives us a possible seeding of BU/BC/PC/UML/ND.

If BC wins, they only miss 1st if BU sweeps.
If BC loses, they cannot be 1st, and might be 3rd.
If BC ties, they are 2nd to a BU sweep, a ND sweep, or a BU/ND 3/1 split. That means a BC/UML tie tonight leaves the league title in flux between two teams (BC/BU or BC/ND) on Saturday, no matter the outcome of the BU/ND game earlier Friday.

So that's BC at 29, 30, and 31. A possible 1, 2, or 3 seed with one game left.

BC's loss also dropped them effectively to 20th place in the PWR. Their NC record is brutal. While the Eagles now have only five losses in the league, their 5-8 NC record gives them 13 losses overall. The next four teams (BU/UML/ND/PC) only have 9 overall and UVM has 10. NU, down in 8th, also has only 12.

The win brought UML up to 7th, just 22 points behind BU. Since the Terriers have played BC three times and UML only twice, that's a net drag on BU's RPI and cost them 10 points since last week.

---
For BU, it's win and take #1.

At 31, they only have to worry about a BC win to tie as co-champs. BU gets the 1 seed on the season sweep (2-0-0, not 3-0-0).
At 30, BU is 2nd if BC wins Fri, or is otherwise 1st (BC at 30 or 29).
At 29, BU is ahead of ND (28) and is either 2nd to the 3WT with UML/BC, or is 2nd to BC. So two points this weekend earns BU at least 2nd. A win Friday keeps BU alive for 1st.
At 28, BU is behind ND (29) and BC (29 or higher), and perhaps UML (27/28/29), but still ahead of PC. BU is 3rd or 4th. In a pair at 28, UML tops BU on wins (TB2).
At 27, BU is behind ND (30) and BC (29 or higher), and perhaps tied with UML and/or PC. We've seen that BU loses TB2 to UML H2H, but if we add PC to the mix, the PC sweep of UML lets BU move up to 3rd. If BU and PC are paired at 27 (UML wins or ties finale), BU wins on 1-0-1 H2H and is 4th.

---
For UML to have a shot at 1st - which they still do - they will need to beat BC tonight. They will also have to hope that BU/ND split in some fashion so that they end up 29/28 in some order. Doesn't matter which, as UML tops both 3WTs. Since a BU/ND 1-1-0 split would not be a surprising result, a UML win puts them with a good chance to top the table. They would be sitting at home tomorrow just hoping for the team that wins Friday to lose Saturday.

UML tying BC puts them at 28, behind BC and the BU/ND winner (each 29+), ahead of PC's Max (27), and either tied or ahead of the BU/ND loser (26-28). Even tied with either BU or ND here, UML wraps up 3rd, as UML split with both and would take either on TB2 (wins).

A UML loss (27) could put them behind the BU/ND loser (could be 28). They could also tie for 4/5 with PC (Max 27), which they would lose with PC's H2H sweep, meaning UML could still be 5th. They are now out of reach of UVM's Max (26), so can't fall lower than that. In 3WTs with BU or ND plus PC, UML comes out BU/PC/UML (discussed) or ND/PC/UML (ND/PC 2-1-1 to UML's 1-3-0, so UML 5th, then ND over PC 1-0-1 H2H).

That said, with 27 in the bank, and winning the H2H TBs with BU or ND (that don't include PC's sweep), UML could still be as high as 3rd if PC gets dinged by UMA and BU/ND don't end up 29/28.

So, if UML wins they want BU/ND 29/28 so they could take top seed. If they lose, they don't want BU/ND 29/28, so they could get 3rd if PC isn't also at 27.

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ND could beat everyone with a sweep of BU and a UML win. That's a top five of ND/UML/BC/BU/PC, regardless of how PC does.

At 30, but tied with BC, we've seen that that goes ND's way on record vs UML, so ND wins that co-champ seeding.

At 29, they are either behind BC (31 or 30) or tied with BC and UML. That's UML/BC/ND/BU/PC.

At 28, they are behind BC and BU, and either behind, ahead, or even with UML. Past PC though. Losing the H2H TB w/ UML, even is as good as behind, so ND is 3 or 4, but 4th unless UML loses to BC. So, on Fri: if ND loses (new Max 28) and UML doesn't, ND is 4th - or 5th if they lose again and PC sweeps.

At 27, they would lose the H2H with UML for 3rd, but top the 3WT if adding in PC. If UML joins BC and BU ahead of that mark, then ND is 4th if tied with PC.

ND's only vulnerability to losing the Bye is staying at 26 and PC sweeping to pass them 27/26. UVM can also catch them at 26 Max, but we saw last time that ND wins ties with either or both of PC and UVM, since ND went 1-0-1 against both and PC/UVM split 1-1-0 with each other.

---
Conversely, PC is looking like they will need the sweep to keep their Bye chances alive.

At 27, PC can take 4th and knock a 27-pt UML down to 5th, whether H2H or in a 3WT with either BU or ND (either of whom would end up 3rd). They can also be 4th by just passing ND if the Irish are swept. If ND is swept and PC catches UML, the Friars would be 3rd.

At 26, however, PC loses any TB to ND, with or without UVM, and BC/BU/UML already have 27+.

A PC/UVM tie at 26 for 5/6 would depend on who the top seeds are. PC would have the advantage if UML is tops (PC swept, UVM was swept), but PC has worse records than UVM against BC and BU. They match vs ND, so the order of the other three would decide this TB.

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Since UVM can't get past ND and their Max is already behind BC/BU/UML, the Cats can no longer get a Bye. So we know that they are hosting a first round series, opponent TBD.

---
The UML/BC game only impacts these six teams, and only the upper end for PC and UVM, so we're done.

Todd
02-24-2017, 04:07 PM
Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell Beats BC
~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC 5. ND
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC) 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU 5. PC

Lowell Ties BC
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Lowell 4. PC 5. Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BC, 2. BU 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. BC 2. Notre Dame 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC

BC Beats Lowell
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell

Note: UVM could still be 5th over PC. Given that we are just seeding among these five and "5th" is relative, not necessarily the 5 seed, I'll check this out.

UML 29 / BC 29
~ BU 31, UML 29 (BC tb), BC 29, PC 27, ND 26
~ BU 30, UML over BC at 29, ND over PC at 27
~ UML/BU/BC at 29, ND 28, PC
~ UML/BC/ND at 29, BU 28, PC
~ ND 30, UML/BC at 29, BU over PC at 27
(matches your table)

UML 28 / BC 30
~ BU 31, BC 30, UML 28, PC 27, ND 26
~ BU/BC at 30, UML 28, ND over PC
~ BC 30, BU 29, UML/ND at 28, PC
~ BC 30, ND 29, UML/BU at 28, PC
~ ND/BC at 30, UML 28, BU over PC
(matches)

UML 27 / BC 31
~ BU/BC at 31, PC/UML at 27, ND 26
~ BC 31, BU 30, ND/PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, BU 29, ND 28, PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, ND 29, BU 28, PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, ND 30, BU/PC/UML at 27
(Your 2nd and 3rd lines are off. Looks like you forgot to add BC's 2 points, so that BU taking 3 or 2 catches BC, when in fact they'd trail. Also, the 3WT at 27 - if BU gets 3, ND gets 1 to tie at 27 - for ND/PC/UML falls in that order.)

TheRevengeance
02-24-2017, 04:15 PM
Just want to say great job doing this. I did it for just Northeastern for just this week and it took a while, plus I confused myself 3-4 times. Doing it for every team for a month sounds brutal.

Todd
02-24-2017, 10:43 PM
BU's loss means that they can no longer be 1st seed.

Two points on the weekend still gets them to 2nd, however, regardless of the BC/UML results.

ND's win jumps them up to second, a point ahead of BU and UML.

Todd
02-24-2017, 10:44 PM
Just want to say great job doing this. I did it for just Northeastern for just this week and it took a while, plus I confused myself 3-4 times. Doing it for every team for a month sounds brutal.

Thanks.

Has it only been a month?

chickod
02-24-2017, 10:46 PM
Lowell/BC season over. Neither can exceed 29.
BU win: they join them with 29 (don't know the results of the 3-way tie)
ND win: they win the league outright with 30

Todd
02-24-2017, 10:52 PM
BU's loss means that they can no longer be 1st seed.

Two points on the weekend still gets them to 2nd, however, regardless of the BC/UML results.

ND's win jumps them up to second, a point ahead of BU and UML.

The loss also drops BU out of a 2 seed in NCAA, down to 9th in PWR. Quite a fall from 3rd, only a couple of weeks ago.

ND moves up to a tie for 13th (14th).

With BU's fall, UML fills the void, moving up to 6th. PC is currently 11th.

Todd
02-25-2017, 12:06 AM
After Fri Feb 24:
ND 3 @ BU 1
NU 5 @ ME 4 (OT)
PC 6 @ UMA 2
BC 1 @ UML 3
CT 5 @ UNH 3
MC 1 @ UVM 3

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM


UML29 - 29[1-2]
BC 29 - 29[2-3]
ND 28 - 30[1/3/4]
BU 27 - 29[2/4]

--- Bye Lock 27 (PC tb) ---

PC 25 - 27[5-6]
UVM24 - 26[5-6]
NU 21 - 23[7-8]

--- Home Lock 20 (UNH/CT tb) ---

--------- Bleen Line (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bleen) --------------


MC 20 - 22[7-9]
CT 18 - 20[8-10]
UNH18 - 20[8-10]

--- R1 Road (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/93/On_the_Road_Again.ogg) - 20 (MC/UNH/CT) ---

ME 10 - 12[11]
UMA5 - 7[12]


Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
UML - {0}
BC - {0}
ND - @BU {1}
BU - ND {1}
PC - UMA {1}
UVM - MC {1}
NU - @ME {1}
MC - @UVM {1}
CT - UNH {1}
UNH - @CT {1}
ME - NU {1}
UMA - @PC {1}

The final night with all twelve league teams playing. Not only for the season, but for the foreseeable future. Until such time as the league adds a replacement for ND, we won't see a night with six league games again.

With one night left in the RS, we still have very few places secured.

---
UMA is still 12th and ME still 11th.

---
CT draws even with UNH. Should either of the pair win tomorrow and MC lose, that winner will move up to 8th. Short of that, with NU topping ME in OT and moving to 21, these two are fighting it out for the 9/10 slots. With a tie, CT gets the TB H2H on the strength of the 3 pts this weekend.

---
MC could still be caught by either CT or UNH and would lose either TB. A point gets them at least 8th and a home series next weekend. A CT/UNH tie also gives MC 8th.

Since MC was swept by NU, they need to clear NU to move up. MC needs a win and a NU loss to hit 7th.

---
NU's win moves them out of reach of CT and UNH, so they are hosting next week. They will be 7th, unless they lose and MC wins to pass them.

---
UVM's win puts them out of reach of NU, MC, and UNH - meaning they can't fall below 6th. The only uncertainty for them is how they will fall re: PC for 5th or 6th.

---
PC's win lets them hit 27, but the ND and then UML wins leave them no one left to catch and pass for a Bye. Losing the tb to BU, PC cannot move above any of the top four teams, and is simply hoping to fend off UVM in the 5-6 battle.

PC and UVM split. If they tie at 25, UVM adds the tie, so PC takes the TB on wins. If they tie at 26, PC adds a tie to UML's win, so they match on wins for TB2 and the top seeding will decide this tie. The options for top seeds are now down to UML and ND. PC has the better record against UML, who wins any TBS at 29, if ND hits 30 for top seed, PC and UVM match records against ND, so it comes down to UML anyway. That means PC wins both TBs.

UVM's only chance to be 5th is to pass PC with a win and a PC loss... to UMA.

---
The top four are now the four Bye teams, seeds pending.

UML's win pulls them even with BC and with the TB. BC could hang a banner as co-champs, but can no longer be the top seed.

Similarly, BU's loss means they can only tie BC and UML at best. That tb goes UML/BU/BC, so the Terriers can also not be 1st, but have the chance to be co-champs and hang a banner (which they didn't used to do as co-champs... long story, but - IIRC - I think one year BU didn't hang a RS banner as the 1 seed, but UNH did as the 2.

With only game game left, we have three outcomes:
ND wins: ND 30, UML over BC at 29, BU at 27
ND/BU tie: UML/BC/ND at 29, BU at 28
BU wins: UML/BU/BC at 29, ND at 28

UML is 2, 1, or 1.
ND is 1, 3, or 4.
BC is 3, 2, or 3.
BU is 4, 4, or 2.

Looks like another year where BU might have to think about pulling the goalie late in a tie game - if Quinn values HE seeding more than NCAA PWR outcome.

Those that recall the end of last RS may remember UML, BU, and ND being in a tight TB going into the final weekend, where BU needed to match UML - whether sweep or swept - for the TBS in their favor, but UML needed a mixed bag if they remained tied. Ultimately, UML got the needed points from BC in their finale and BU couldn't manage to solve ND with a 1-0 loss in their finale. That sent BU into fifth, and back out to UML for the 4/5 series after winning the 5/12. It seemed that BU losing the Bye also had them losing their fight, as they were rolled by Lowell and crushed by Denver in their first round NCAA game. At least this year, BU knows they have the Bye.

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It should be noted that ND has the chance to be the HE RS (and, of course, tourney) champ in their final year in HE. They are currently the reigning CCHA tourney champs, as they took 2nd in the CCHA's final RS and won the final tourney.

So, should ND win on Saturday, or win the HE tourney, they would start Big Ten play next year as the reigning champs - of some sort - of two different leagues while playing in a third.

In their prior three years in HE play, the have finished the RS at 7, 5, and 3. The pattern says they move to finish 1 in their final go-'round.

---
Current PWR standings for HE have UML at 6 with padding, BU in 8th by a whisker (2 RPI pts, which could change with a puff of breeze), PC at 11, Notre Dame at 15, UVM at 18, BC at 20 and NU at 23. With AFA below the bubble, 15 and 16 are vulnerable to the two small conference auto-bids, so HE would only be sending three, if the bids went out tonight.

Craig P.
02-25-2017, 08:00 AM
Small correction: Current PWR has ND 14th (not 15th), in a tie on comparison wins with North Dakota but trailing in RPI by 2 ten thousandths.

Todd
02-25-2017, 12:11 PM
Small correction: Current PWR has ND 14th (not 15th), in a tie on comparison wins with North Dakota but trailing in RPI by 2 ten thousandths.

Yes. Which makes them 15th. NoDak is 14th, because they win the tb. - Note: those numbers were at press time. With the western games now done, that tied pair now shifts up to a tie for 13, making Notre Dame 14th on the under side of the tb.

Similar situations with other ties at 19 (BC trails, so is 20) or 11 (PC wins, dropping OSU to 12).