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View Full Version : The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise



ticapnews
01-01-2017, 05:11 PM
People who have followed this thread in the Fan Forum for the past few years know the PairWise Rankings as of January 1 are a solid indicator of the teams that qualify for the NCAA tournament in March.

Thanks to the (now-defunct) Build Your Own Rankings Calculator, we now have 14 years of PairWise data to study. In that time, there have been 25 teams that qualified thanks to the automatic bid from their conference postseason championship and 199 that qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 199 teams, 143 (71.9 percent) that qualified as of the Jan. 1 PairWise have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top eight, that percentage gets better.

• Teams ranked first through fourth in the Jan. 1 PairWise made the tournament 49 of 56 times (87.5 percent).
• Those ranked fifth through eighth made it 42 of 56 times (75 percent).
• For teams in spots nine through 12 in the Jan. 1 PairWise, 32 of 56 (57.1 percent) made the field.

In 2011, all of the top 12 teams in the Jan. 1 table qualified. Ohio State in 2012 is the only No. 1 PairWise team at the start of the new year to fall all the way out of the tournament.

Realistically a team needs to be in the top 25 to have a chance to make the tournament as an at-large team. However, in seven of the last 10 seasons a team has come from outside the top 25 to earn a berth. Last year Northeastern rose all the way from 49th to earn a spot. The 2013 Wisconsin Badgers came from the 42nd position to make the field.

In the 14 years of data, 45 teams fell out of an NCAA tournament spot after being ranked in the top 12 of the New Year’s PairWise. Colorado College (2004) and Dartmouth (2013) have the distinction of not only falling out of the tournament four times but of being No. 1 seeds on Jan. 1 that didn’t make the tournament.

Without further ado...

1 Minnesota-Duluth
2 Penn State
3 Denver
4t Harvard
4t Massachusetts-Lowell
4t Boston University
7 Western Michigan
8 Union
9 North Dakota
10 Minnesota
11 Notre Dame
12 Vermont
13 Ohio State
14t Boston College
---- cut line ----
14t Omaha
16 St. Lawrence
17t St. Cloud State
17t Quinnipiac
19t Cornell
19t Air Force *
21 Bemidji State *
22 Providence
23 Connecticut
24t Clarkson
24t Michigan Tech
---- realistic cut line to make the field ----
26 Robert Morris
27 Northeastern
28 Minnesota State
29t Army
29t Wisconsin
31 Princeton
32 Dartmouth
33 Michigan
34 Miami
35 Colorado College
36 New Hampshire
37 Bowling Green
38 Merrimack
39 RIT
40 Canisius
41 Yale
42 Maine
43 Holy Cross
44 Michigan State
45 Lake Superior
46 Mercyhurst
47 Arizona State
48 Colgate
49t Bentley
---- lowest any team has been ranked and still earned a spot ----
49t Massachusetts
51 Sacred Heart
52 Ferris State
53 Alaska
54 Alabama-Huntsville
55 Brown
56 American International
57 Alaska-Anchorage
58 Rensselaer
59 Northern Michigan
60 Niagara

Fargo: Fargo (North Dakota)
1. Minnesota-Duluth vs Bemidji State
Boston U vs North Dakota

Manchester: (UNH)
4. Harvard vs Ohio State
Lowell vs Minnesota

Providence: (Brown)
3. Denver vs Boston College
Union vs Vermont

Cincinnati: (Miami)
2. Penn State vs Air Force
W Michigan vs Notre Dame

Conference breakdown:
HEA 5
NCHC 4
BTHC 3
ECAC 2
WCHA 1
AHC 1

SJHovey
01-04-2017, 09:24 AM
I see Adam Wodon (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2017/01/02_heed_the_pairwise__now.php) has finally figured this out. Funny thing about Adam is that in a couple of years he'll be telling everybody he was the first to reach this conclusion and cite back to his column, then get all butthurt when someone suggests he wasn't first, even though Priceless has been running this thread for a few years now. :p

ticapnews
01-05-2017, 10:40 AM
I see Adam Wodon (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2017/01/02_heed_the_pairwise__now.php) has finally figured this out. Funny thing about Adam is that in a couple of years he'll be telling everybody he was the first to reach this conclusion and cite back to his column, then get all butthurt when someone suggests he wasn't first, even though Priceless has been running this thread for a few years now. :p

If stealing from me is what it takes to make him happy so be it. What matters most to me is that some good come to our little niche sport. Stealing without attribution says mountains about someone as a journalist and a person though.

Deman
01-05-2017, 11:53 AM
.
.
.
45 Lake Superior
46 Mercyhurst
47 Arizona State
48 Colgate
49t Bentley
---- lowest any team has been ranked and still earned a spot ----

So you're saying there's a chance...

ticapnews
01-05-2017, 12:04 PM
So you're saying there's a chance...

Until your team loses its last game there is always a chance!

ticapnews
03-02-2017, 05:22 PM
Is there a Pairwise/Bracketology thread around here that I somehow missed?

UML Puck Hawk
03-02-2017, 07:19 PM
Is there a Pairwise/Bracketology thread around here that I somehow missed?

No

Numbers
03-02-2017, 09:13 PM
No. Very odd. Usually Priceless and Patman and the other guys have it going by now. However, with RPI being so strong an influence on the PWR now, there are far fewer details to discuss. Most anyone interested can look and the PWR rankings and see all they need to see.

If you want commentary, it's available elsewhere. If you want some here....

UMD and Denver are almost assured the top 2 spots.
Harvard is almost assured the #3.

Minnesota and WMU are most likely going to end up 4/5

Lowell, BU, Union, Penn St, Cornell, and Providence are in very good position to make the tourney.

At that point there is a large gap, and there is a huge pileup which it makes no sense to try to sort out yet from:
NoDame, Wisc, OSU, SCSU, NoDak, Omaha, Air Force, and BC all with chances to make it as an At-Large.

After that, you'd better win, baby.

Conference affiliations are mushed up all over in there, too, so it's not really possible to comment on what to watch for.

There are a couple of intriguing possibilities:

1- North Dakota misses the tournament altogether
2- Big Ten teams end up 13 and 14 in the PWR, with Minnesota at 4. That would mean that Minny would play the #15 overall.
3- Associated with that, the possibility that NoDak ends at 13, which precludes Denver or UMD from playing at its nearest Region.

That's all you can really say right now.