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The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise

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  • The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise

    People who have followed this thread in the Fan Forum for the past few years know the PairWise Rankings as of January 1 are a solid indicator of the teams that qualify for the NCAA tournament in March.

    Thanks to the (now-defunct) Build Your Own Rankings Calculator, we now have 14 years of PairWise data to study. In that time, there have been 25 teams that qualified thanks to the automatic bid from their conference postseason championship and 199 that qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

    Of the 199 teams, 143 (71.9 percent) that qualified as of the Jan. 1 PairWise have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top eight, that percentage gets better.

    • Teams ranked first through fourth in the Jan. 1 PairWise made the tournament 49 of 56 times (87.5 percent).
    • Those ranked fifth through eighth made it 42 of 56 times (75 percent).
    • For teams in spots nine through 12 in the Jan. 1 PairWise, 32 of 56 (57.1 percent) made the field.

    In 2011, all of the top 12 teams in the Jan. 1 table qualified. Ohio State in 2012 is the only No. 1 PairWise team at the start of the new year to fall all the way out of the tournament.

    Realistically a team needs to be in the top 25 to have a chance to make the tournament as an at-large team. However, in seven of the last 10 seasons a team has come from outside the top 25 to earn a berth. Last year Northeastern rose all the way from 49th to earn a spot. The 2013 Wisconsin Badgers came from the 42nd position to make the field.

    In the 14 years of data, 45 teams fell out of an NCAA tournament spot after being ranked in the top 12 of the New Year’s PairWise. Colorado College (2004) and Dartmouth (2013) have the distinction of not only falling out of the tournament four times but of being No. 1 seeds on Jan. 1 that didn’t make the tournament.

    Without further ado...

    1 Minnesota-Duluth
    2 Penn State
    3 Denver
    4t Harvard
    4t Massachusetts-Lowell
    4t Boston University
    7 Western Michigan
    8 Union
    9 North Dakota
    10 Minnesota
    11 Notre Dame
    12 Vermont
    13 Ohio State
    14t Boston College
    ---- cut line ----
    14t Omaha
    16 St. Lawrence
    17t St. Cloud State
    17t Quinnipiac
    19t Cornell
    19t Air Force *
    21 Bemidji State *
    22 Providence
    23 Connecticut
    24t Clarkson
    24t Michigan Tech
    ---- realistic cut line to make the field ----
    26 Robert Morris
    27 Northeastern
    28 Minnesota State
    29t Army
    29t Wisconsin
    31 Princeton
    32 Dartmouth
    33 Michigan
    34 Miami
    35 Colorado College
    36 New Hampshire
    37 Bowling Green
    38 Merrimack
    39 RIT
    40 Canisius
    41 Yale
    42 Maine
    43 Holy Cross
    44 Michigan State
    45 Lake Superior
    46 Mercyhurst
    47 Arizona State
    48 Colgate
    49t Bentley
    ---- lowest any team has been ranked and still earned a spot ----
    49t Massachusetts
    51 Sacred Heart
    52 Ferris State
    53 Alaska
    54 Alabama-Huntsville
    55 Brown
    56 American International
    57 Alaska-Anchorage
    58 Rensselaer
    59 Northern Michigan
    60 Niagara

    Fargo: Fargo (North Dakota)
    1. Minnesota-Duluth vs Bemidji State
    Boston U vs North Dakota

    Manchester: (UNH)
    4. Harvard vs Ohio State
    Lowell vs Minnesota

    Providence: (Brown)
    3. Denver vs Boston College
    Union vs Vermont

    Cincinnati: (Miami)
    2. Penn State vs Air Force
    W Michigan vs Notre Dame

    Conference breakdown:
    HEA 5
    NCHC 4
    BTHC 3
    ECAC 2
    WCHA 1
    AHC 1
    Last edited by ticapnews; 01-01-2017, 04:25 PM.

  • #2
    Re: The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise

    I see Adam Wodon has finally figured this out. Funny thing about Adam is that in a couple of years he'll be telling everybody he was the first to reach this conclusion and cite back to his column, then get all butthurt when someone suggests he wasn't first, even though Priceless has been running this thread for a few years now.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
      I see Adam Wodon has finally figured this out. Funny thing about Adam is that in a couple of years he'll be telling everybody he was the first to reach this conclusion and cite back to his column, then get all butthurt when someone suggests he wasn't first, even though Priceless has been running this thread for a few years now.
      If stealing from me is what it takes to make him happy so be it. What matters most to me is that some good come to our little niche sport. Stealing without attribution says mountains about someone as a journalist and a person though.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise


        .
        .
        .
        45 Lake Superior

        46 Mercyhurst
        47 Arizona State
        48 Colgate
        49t Bentley
        ---- lowest any team has been ranked and still earned a spot ----
        So you're saying there's a chance...
        LSSU Alumni & Fan.

        Still a work in progress, but please join us at the (unofficial) Laker Hockey Blog

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Deman View Post
          So you're saying there's a chance...
          Until your team loses its last game there is always a chance!

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise

            Is there a Pairwise/Bracketology thread around here that I somehow missed?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
              Is there a Pairwise/Bracketology thread around here that I somehow missed?
              No
              BS UMass Lowell 2015
              PhD Georgia Institute of Technology 2020

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The Highly-Anticipated, All-Important January 1 PairWise

                No. Very odd. Usually Priceless and Patman and the other guys have it going by now. However, with RPI being so strong an influence on the PWR now, there are far fewer details to discuss. Most anyone interested can look and the PWR rankings and see all they need to see.

                If you want commentary, it's available elsewhere. If you want some here....

                UMD and Denver are almost assured the top 2 spots.
                Harvard is almost assured the #3.

                Minnesota and WMU are most likely going to end up 4/5

                Lowell, BU, Union, Penn St, Cornell, and Providence are in very good position to make the tourney.

                At that point there is a large gap, and there is a huge pileup which it makes no sense to try to sort out yet from:
                NoDame, Wisc, OSU, SCSU, NoDak, Omaha, Air Force, and BC all with chances to make it as an At-Large.

                After that, you'd better win, baby.

                Conference affiliations are mushed up all over in there, too, so it's not really possible to comment on what to watch for.

                There are a couple of intriguing possibilities:

                1- North Dakota misses the tournament altogether
                2- Big Ten teams end up 13 and 14 in the PWR, with Minnesota at 4. That would mean that Minny would play the #15 overall.
                3- Associated with that, the possibility that NoDak ends at 13, which precludes Denver or UMD from playing at its nearest Region.

                That's all you can really say right now.

                Comment

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